Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -52%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -141%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170%
Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.4
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -26 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -762%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is null
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -724%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -724%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -268%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 104%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -52%
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -141%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
3 Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.4
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -26 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -762%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is null
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -724%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -724%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -268%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 104%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GOVX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Nasdaq Deficiency and Delisting Risk. Geovax Labs received a deficiency letter from Nasdaq on July 31, 2025, indicating that its common stock's closing bid price had fallen below the $1.00 minimum requirement for 30 consecutive business days. The company was given until January 27, 2026, to regain compliance, or it could face potential delisting from the Nasdaq Capital Market.

2. Termination of Key COVID-19 Vaccine Project. On April 11, 2025, GeoVax Labs announced the termination of its COVID-19 vaccine project, GEO-CM04S1, under a collaboration with Advanced Technology International (ATI), which was funded by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA). This decision by BARDA to terminate the contract for convenience meant the halt of all activities related to the Phase 2B clinical trial for the vaccine, significantly impacting a major development program and its associated funding.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GOVX Return1126567%7%-83%-43%-54%-84%8516%
Peers Return642%15%-57%-56%45%-9%113%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GOVX Win Rate42%33%17%33%33%25% 
Peers Win Rate57%45%32%30%43%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GOVX Max Drawdown0%-3%-85%-52%-80%-85% 
Peers Max Drawdown-20%-26%-68%-64%-48%-49% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EBS, SIGA, TNXP, MRNA, NVAX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGOVXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-96.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2713.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-54.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven121.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven183 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-100.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven349900.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven269 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-65.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven188.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven72 days1480 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

Geovax Labs's stock fell -96.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2021. A -96.4% loss requires a 2713.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Geovax Labs (GOVX)

Better Bets than Geovax Labs (GOVX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GOVX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Geovax Labs

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GOVXEBSSIGATNXPMRNANVAXMedian
NameGeovax L.Emergent.SIGA Tec.Tonix Ph.Moderna Novavax  
Mkt Price0.3711.416.4619.2829.466.578.99
Mkt Cap0.00.60.50.211.51.10.5
Rev LTM3812172102,2021,024492
Op Inc LTM-2610690-96-3,46340532
FCF LTM-24155116-77-2,663-385-51
FCF 3Y Avg-24-5565-87-3,092-408-71
CFO LTM-24169117-75-1,978-378-50
CFO 3Y Avg-24-1165-82-2,421-375-53

Growth & Margins

GOVXEBSSIGATNXPMRNANVAXMedian
NameGeovax L.Emergent.SIGA Tec.Tonix Ph.Moderna Novavax  
Rev Chg LTM8.5%-24.4%-0.9%-8.8%-56.4%20.9%-4.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--16.9%104.9%--52.3%14.1%-1.4%
Rev Chg Q-100.0%-47.5%-73.8%16.6%-46.0%-16.6%-46.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-45.4%-12.7%-4.1%4.8%-27.9%-1.4%-8.4%
Op Mgn LTM-761.6%13.1%52.4%-932.4%-157.3%39.5%-72.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--9.3%28.1%-1,584.1%-79.9%-27.4%-27.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-354.3%20.8%-3.8%-140.7%-50.1%5.6%-27.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-723.6%20.8%67.7%-726.5%-89.8%-36.9%-63.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-0.3%43.6%-1,296.8%-58.7%-45.9%-45.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-724.4%19.1%67.5%-751.3%-120.9%-37.6%-79.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--4.0%43.6%-1,408.1%-76.1%-50.2%-50.2%

Valuation

GOVXEBSSIGATNXPMRNANVAXMedian
NameGeovax L.Emergent.SIGA Tec.Tonix Ph.Moderna Novavax  
Mkt Cap0.00.60.50.211.51.10.5
P/S2.20.63.820.94.61.43.0
P/EBIT-0.42.07.3--3.23.82.0
P/E-0.33.48.8-2.2-3.24.11.6
P/CFO-0.32.85.6-2.9-5.1-3.7-1.6
Total Yield-337.2%29.2%11.4%-46.0%-30.9%24.3%-9.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-196.8%-55.7%11.5%--16.2%-43.3%-43.3%
D/E0.01.40.0-0.10.20.1
Net D/E-0.50.8-0.3--0.4-0.4-0.4

Returns

GOVXEBSSIGATNXPMRNANVAXMedian
NameGeovax L.Emergent.SIGA Tec.Tonix Ph.Moderna Novavax  
1M Rtn-16.9%12.9%7.7%21.3%18.9%-5.7%10.3%
3M Rtn-46.6%40.2%-27.6%-32.6%25.3%-17.7%-22.6%
6M Rtn-63.6%82.6%1.6%-39.7%10.5%-5.3%-1.9%
12M Rtn-84.1%34.6%15.4%-19.8%-29.6%-27.9%-23.9%
3Y Rtn-95.5%2.4%9.1%-99.7%-85.8%-42.0%-63.9%
1M Excs Rtn-24.4%5.9%4.4%9.1%10.6%-8.4%5.1%
3M Excs Rtn-48.6%39.4%-31.4%-33.7%20.2%-21.9%-26.7%
6M Excs Rtn-77.8%68.3%-12.7%-53.9%-3.8%-19.6%-16.1%
12M Excs Rtn-97.8%19.4%-2.9%-15.1%-42.2%-38.2%-26.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-170.2%-81.4%-72.3%-173.3%-157.1%-135.4%-146.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,025,702
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520250.3%
Average Daily Volume488,347
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.20
Basic Shares Quantity20,287,203
Short % of Basic Shares14.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/13/2025-3.8%-14.5% 
7/29/20251.8%-3.0%0.8%
3/28/2025-4.5%-8.1%-10.0%
11/13/2024-3.3%-3.3%-13.0%
8/7/20245.1%82.6%92.1%
5/15/20241.2%8.7%-30.2%
3/1/2024-7.5%-16.1%-24.4%
11/9/2023-1.8%1.1%-40.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive777
# Negative121212
Median Positive1.2%3.2%11.7%
Median Negative-3.6%-6.0%-24.4%
Max Positive5.1%82.6%92.1%
Max Negative-9.8%-24.4%-66.9%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251113202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025728202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024327202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024514202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022323202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021309202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0SPENCER JOHN N JR 10202025Buy0.5510,0005,49811,767Form