Novavax (NVAX)
Market Price (8/19/2026): $7.97 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Novavax (NVAX)
Market Price (8/19/2026): $7.97Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -32% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Vaccine Development, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -136 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -33% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -62%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -22%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -76% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 16.63, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 28% Key risksNVAX key risks include [1] regulatory delays requiring costly additional trials, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Vaccine Development, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -136 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -33% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -62%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -22%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -76% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 16.63, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 28% |
| Key risksNVAX key risks include [1] regulatory delays requiring costly additional trials, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Novavax (NVAX) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat Driven by Cost Reduction.
Novavax reported its fiscal Q1 2026 financial results on May 6, 2026, announcing a net loss of $9 million. While total revenue for the quarter was $140 million, a 79% decrease year-over-year due to the wind-down of prior COVID-19 product sales and non-cash items, the company significantly beat analyst expectations for earnings per share (EPS), reporting a loss of $0.06 per share against an estimated loss of $0.25. This outperformance was largely attributed to aggressive cost-cutting measures, with non-GAAP research and development (R&D) expenses, net of partner reimbursement, decreasing by 13% and selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses falling by 40% compared to the same period in the prior year. The stock reacted positively to these results, surging 15.56% on the day of the earnings report.
2. Raised Full-Year 2026 Revenue Outlook.
Following the release of its fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 6, 2026, Novavax raised its full-year 2026 adjusted total revenue forecast to between $235 million and $275 million, an increase from the earlier projection of $230 million to $270 million. This upward revision to guidance, despite a reported net loss of $53 million for fiscal Q2 2026 (which ended June 30, 2026), indicated increased confidence in the company's financial trajectory and new business model, helping to drive positive stock movement. The stock saw positive movements on August 6 and 7, 2026, with gains of +0.52% and +2.71% respectively.
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Novavax (NVAX) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat Driven by Cost Reduction.
Novavax reported its fiscal Q1 2026 financial results on May 6, 2026, announcing a net loss of $9 million. While total revenue for the quarter was $140 million, a 79% decrease year-over-year due to the wind-down of prior COVID-19 product sales and non-cash items, the company significantly beat analyst expectations for earnings per share (EPS), reporting a loss of $0.06 per share against an estimated loss of $0.25. This outperformance was largely attributed to aggressive cost-cutting measures, with non-GAAP research and development (R&D) expenses, net of partner reimbursement, decreasing by 13% and selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses falling by 40% compared to the same period in the prior year. The stock reacted positively to these results, surging 15.56% on the day of the earnings report.
2. Raised Full-Year 2026 Revenue Outlook.
Following the release of its fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 6, 2026, Novavax raised its full-year 2026 adjusted total revenue forecast to between $235 million and $275 million, an increase from the earlier projection of $230 million to $270 million. This upward revision to guidance, despite a reported net loss of $53 million for fiscal Q2 2026 (which ended June 30, 2026), indicated increased confidence in the company's financial trajectory and new business model, helping to drive positive stock movement. The stock saw positive movements on August 6 and 7, 2026, with gains of +0.52% and +2.71% respectively.
3. Progress in Strategic Partnerships, Especially with Sanofi.
Novavax's strategy to focus on licensing its Matrix-M adjuvant technology and transitioning from direct vaccine sales has shown progress through key partnerships, most notably with Sanofi. During fiscal Q2 2026, Sanofi confirmed it is in advanced discussions with regulators regarding its Phase 3 COVID-19-Influenza Combination trial timing and aims to be an early entrant in the combination vaccine market. Furthermore, the completion of manufacturing technology transfer to Sanofi, expected by mid-2027, is poised to trigger a $75 million milestone payment to Novavax. This strategic shift, emphasizing a capital-efficient R&D and operating model, aims to deliver value through technology partnerships and leverage Sanofi's commercial capabilities for Nuvaxovid, with Novavax set to receive tiered royalties on sales.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.1% change in NVAX stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 175.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.92 | 7.93 | 0.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,123 | 414 | -63.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.1 | 3.2 | 175.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 163 | 165 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NVAX | 0.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.8% | 35.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.3% | -0.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.3% change in NVAX stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.85 | 7.93 | -10.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,065 | 414 | -61.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.3 | 3.2 | 133.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 162 | 165 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NVAX | -10.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.2% | 40.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 10.1% | 9.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 19.2% change in NVAX stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 269.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.65 | 7.93 | 19.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,255 | 414 | -67.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 3.2 | 269.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 161 | 165 | -2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NVAX | 19.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.4% | 36.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 31.8% | 16.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.5% change in NVAX stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.28 | 7.93 | -14.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,096 | 414 | -62.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.7 | 3.2 | 332.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 86 | 165 | -47.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NVAX | -14.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.6% | 21.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 32.5% | 15.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NVAX Return | 28% | -93% | -53% | 67% | -16% | 20% | -93% |
| Peers Return | 51% | 8% | -19% | -11% | 13% | 41% | 88% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NVAX Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 33% | 33% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 50% | 35% | 43% | 58% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NVAX Max Drawdown | -62% | -94% | -62% | -66% | -50% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -25% | -32% | -33% | -26% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MRNA, PFE, MRK, JNJ, GILD. See NVAX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NVAX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -10.3% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 150 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 417 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -13.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 19 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Novavax's stock fell -32.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NVAX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 150 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 417 days | 31 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 19 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -66.6% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 199.7% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 260 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -69.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 224.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1801 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -44.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 344 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 243 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 508.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Novavax's stock fell -32.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Novavax (NVAX)
Novavax, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines. The company's core mission is to prevent serious infectious diseases and address significant health needs globally through innovative vaccine technology.
The company's main product pipeline consists of several vaccine candidates in various stages of clinical trials. Key candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a COVID-19 vaccine, which is undergoing multiple Phase III and earlier-stage clinical trials. Another significant product is NanoFlu, a nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate currently in a Phase 3 clinical trial. Additionally, Novavax is developing ResVax, a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate, with ongoing trials for both older adults and pediatric populations. The company also engages in strategic collaborations, such as with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, for the development and commercialization of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.
Novavax primarily serves the global market for preventive medicine, targeting a broad range of individuals susceptible to infectious diseases. This includes general populations in need of protection against widespread viruses like influenza and coronaviruses, as well as specific vulnerable demographics such as older adults and young children who are at higher risk for conditions like RSV. Through its vaccine development, Novavax aims to contribute solutions to public health challenges worldwide.
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Novavax is like a specialized vaccine developer aiming to be the next Pfizer or Moderna.
Novavax is like the independent vaccine arm of a major pharmaceutical company like Merck or GSK.
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- NVX-CoV2373: A coronavirus vaccine candidate currently in various stages of clinical trials.
- NanoFlu: A nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate in Phase 3 clinical trials.
- ResVax: A respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate.
- RSV F vaccine (for older adults): An RSV vaccine candidate in Phase II clinical trial for individuals 60 years and older.
- RSV F vaccine (for pediatrics): An RSV vaccine candidate in Phase I clinical trial for pediatric use.
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Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) sells primarily to other companies and organizations rather than directly to individuals. Based on the provided background information, a major customer company identified through a commercialization agreement is:
- Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (NYSE: TAK)
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited has a collaboration agreement with Novavax for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NVX-CoV2373, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. This implies Takeda is a significant partner in bringing Novavax's vaccine to market, acting as a major channel or customer for commercialization.
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John C. Jacobs – President and Chief Executive Officer
John C. Jacobs joined Novavax as President and CEO in January 2023. He is an industry leader with over 25 years of experience in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors. Prior to Novavax, Mr. Jacobs served as President and CEO of Harmony Biosciences from June 2018 to January 2023, where he successfully led the company through an initial public offering (IPO) and oversaw the FDA review, approval, and commercialization of its first product. He also held various leadership roles at Teva Pharmaceuticals, including Senior Vice President and General Manager of the U.S. Respiratory Business Unit, and positions at Cephalon, Wyeth, and Pfizer.
Jim Kelly – Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Jim Kelly is the Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer at Novavax, with responsibility for finance, investor relations, and information technology. He joined Novavax with over 25 years of industry experience in both commercial and clinical-stage companies. Previously, Mr. Kelly served as CFO at Supernus Pharmaceuticals and Vanda Pharmaceuticals for ten years, and held various finance leadership roles at MedImmune (now AstraZeneca), Biogen, and Aetna.
Silvia Taylor – Executive Vice President, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer and Head of Novavax Sweden
Silvia Taylor serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, and Head of Novavax Sweden. Her responsibilities encompass communications, government affairs and policy, corporate reputation and branding, government contracting, and overseeing operations for Novavax's manufacturing and R&D site in Sweden. Ms. Taylor brings over 25 years of experience in commercial operations, corporate affairs, and investor relations within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors. Her background includes key positions at prominent biopharmaceutical firms like Pfizer and MedImmune (now part of AstraZeneca), where she was involved in executive communications, marketing blockbuster and specialty pharmaceuticals, product launches, and capital raising. She has also held senior leadership roles at Autolus Therapeutics plc and Sucampo.
Ruxandra Draghia-Akli, MD, PhD – Executive Vice President, Head of Research & Development
Dr. Ruxandra Draghia-Akli joined Novavax as Executive Vice President and Head of Research & Development in November 2024. She has over 20 years of experience in vaccines and global public health. Prior to Novavax, Dr. Draghia-Akli served as Global Head of Global Public Health R&D at Johnson & Johnson, where she led initiatives in drug discovery and development for diseases such as Dengue, tuberculosis, leprosy, and coronaviruses. She also held the position of Vice President, Global Vaccines at Merck, contributing to the advancement of vaccines against Ebola, pneumococcal disease, and human papillomavirus. Additionally, she worked with the European Commission on research and innovation policy.
Mark Casey – Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary
Mark Casey is the Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary at Novavax, a role he assumed in December 2023. He is responsible for legal affairs, including Novavax's patent portfolio, transactional and contractual matters, and public securities filings. Mr. Casey has 25 years of legal experience in the life sciences sector. Before joining Novavax, he served as Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary at Bryn Pharma, LLC, and held similar executive positions at Mallinckrodt Pharmaceuticals, Idera Pharmaceuticals (now Aceragen), and Hologic. At Mallinckrodt, he led strategic turnaround efforts for the Specialty Generics Division. His career also includes roles at Boston Scientific Corp and EMC Corp.
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Key Risks to Novavax's Business
Novavax (NVAX) faces significant risks primarily centered around its ability to successfully develop, gain regulatory approval for, and commercialize its vaccine candidates in highly competitive markets, as well as operational challenges related to manufacturing.
- Clinical Trial Outcomes and Regulatory Approval: Novavax's business success is heavily dependent on the successful completion of clinical trials for its vaccine candidates, including NVX-CoV2373 (COVID-19), NanoFlu (influenza), and ResVax (RSV). The regulatory approval process for vaccines is complex and unpredictable, posing a substantial risk of potential delays or outright failures in obtaining necessary authorizations from health authorities worldwide. Any setbacks in these critical stages could significantly impede the company's ability to commercialize its products and generate revenue.
- Intense Market Competition and Demand Fluctuations: Novavax operates in vaccine markets, particularly for COVID-19 and influenza, that are characterized by intense competition from established pharmaceutical giants. Even upon receiving regulatory approvals, Novavax faces challenges in securing significant market share and ensuring sufficient uptake of its vaccines. Factors such as pricing, perceived efficacy against evolving viral variants, existing market saturation, and changing public health recommendations can heavily influence demand, as evidenced by the company's struggles with COVID-19 vaccine market share.
- Manufacturing and Supply Chain Dependence: As a biotechnology company, Novavax relies on third-party manufacturers for critical aspects of its vaccine production. This dependency introduces risks related to potential supply chain disruptions, issues with quality control, and possible delays in large-scale production, which could undermine its capacity to consistently meet market demand for its approved products.
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The clear emerging threat for Novavax (NVAX) stems from the **market saturation and early dominance of competing COVID-19 vaccines** already approved, manufactured, and widely distributed by other pharmaceutical companies. While Novavax's NVX-CoV2373 vaccine candidate was still progressing through Phase III clinical trials, other companies secured significant market share and established their products as the primary solutions during the initial rollout of COVID-19 vaccination efforts. This effectively limits the available market opportunity and potential demand for Novavax's vaccine, even upon eventual regulatory approval, mirroring historical scenarios where late-entry products struggle against established alternatives.
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Novavax (NVAX) operates in addressable markets for its key vaccine candidates, including COVID-19, seasonal influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
COVID-19 Vaccine (NVX-CoV2373)
- The global COVID-19 vaccine market was valued at approximately USD 13.43 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 29.98 billion by 2033, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.8% from 2025 to 2033. Another estimate projected the market at USD 25.85 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 7.4%. Conversely, some reports suggest a contraction, with the market size at USD 13.71 billion in 2025, projected to decline to USD 8.28 billion by 2030, reflecting a -9.10% CAGR.
- Regionally, North America is noted as a dominant force in the COVID-19 vaccine market, claiming 38.2% of the global share in 2024. Asia Pacific has also shown strong market presence, dominating the global COVID-19 vaccine market with over a 58% share in 2021 and is expected to maintain a significant market share with the fastest growth pace.
Influenza Vaccine (NanoFlu)
- The global influenza vaccine market was estimated at USD 8.49 billion in 2024, growing to USD 9.08 billion in 2025, and is anticipated to reach approximately USD 16.73 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.02% between 2025 and 2034. Other projections indicate the global market size was valued at US$ 9.0 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach US$ 18.5 billion by 2036, expanding at a CAGR of 6.8% from 2026 to 2036.
- In the U.S., the influenza vaccine market was valued at USD 4.04 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.2% during the forecast period. Another source reported the U.S. market at USD 3.65 billion in 2023, with expectations to reach USD 5,770.8 million by 2030 at a CAGR of 6.4% from 2024 to 2030. North America held a significant share of over 53.4% of the global influenza vaccine market in 2024.
Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Vaccine (ResVax)
- The global RSV vaccine market was estimated at USD 3.51 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow substantially to USD 28.39 billion by 2030, at an impressive CAGR of 42.17% from 2025 to 2030. Another report estimates the global market to grow from USD 5.05 billion in 2025 to around USD 120.86 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 42.3%. Conversely, other analyses projected the global market to reach USD 1.24 billion by 2030, declining from USD 1.60 billion in 2025 with a CAGR of -4.9% through the forecast period.
- In the U.S., the addressable market for RSV immunizations could potentially exceed USD 19 billion. This figure includes a potential additional USD 5.5 billion if the FDA approves vaccination for the 50-60 age demographic, bringing the total to USD 19.1 billion. Another report valued the U.S. RSV vaccines market at approximately US$ 533.1 million in 2024. The demand for human RSV treatment in the USA, which includes vaccines, is projected to grow from USD 674.6 million in 2025 to USD 1,342.6 million by 2035, at a CAGR of 7.1%.
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Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a strategic shift towards partnerships, leveraging its proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant technology, and advancing its pipeline. Here are the key drivers:
- Sanofi Partnership for Nuvaxovid and Combination Vaccines: Novavax has transitioned the lead commercial responsibility for its COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, to Sanofi for various markets. The company anticipates significant growth in royalties as 2026 marks Sanofi's first full commercial year of selling Nuvaxovid globally. Additionally, future revenue growth is expected from milestone payments related to the Sanofi partnership, including potential payments for a Sanofi Phase III combination study and technology transfer. A key launch from this deal is also expected to be a COVID-flu combination vaccine, utilizing Nuvaxovid, which is projected to be a primary revenue driver starting in late 2026 and 2027 as the market moves towards integrated seasonal vaccinations.
- Matrix-M Adjuvant Licensing Deals and Expanded Partnerships: Novavax is strategically focusing on out-licensing its Matrix-M adjuvant technology. A significant recent development is the January 2026 license agreement with Pfizer, granting Pfizer non-exclusive rights to use Matrix-M in two infectious disease areas, which could generate up to $500 million in development and sales milestones for Novavax. The company has also signed multiple Material Transfer Agreements (MTAs) with other pharmaceutical companies, indicating increasing interest in its adjuvant technology, and anticipates further new partnership announcements. Novavax's CEO has stated that Matrix-M licensing has the potential to generate "billions of dollars of revenue over time" through milestones and royalties.
- Advancement of Early-Stage Pipeline: Novavax plans to advance its early-stage pipeline, which includes the development of new adjuvants and exploration of oncology applications. The company has an early-stage C. difficile vaccine candidate and intends to bring these new candidates into clinical trials as early as 2027, diversifying its future revenue streams beyond its current vaccine portfolio.
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Share Issuance
- Novavax’s shares outstanding increased by 13.74% in one year as of February 26, 2026.
- In May 2024, Sanofi made a minority equity investment of less than 5% in Novavax as part of a co-exclusive licensing agreement.
- SK bioscience also made an equity investment in Novavax in August 2024.
Inbound Investments
- In May 2024, Novavax entered into a co-exclusive licensing agreement with Sanofi, receiving an upfront payment of $500 million and eligibility for up to $700 million in development, regulatory, and launch milestones for its COVID-19 vaccine and combination COVID-19-Influenza vaccines.
- Novavax signed a non-exclusive license agreement with Pfizer in January 2026 for its Matrix-M adjuvant technology, including an upfront payment of $30 million and potential development and sales milestones of up to $500 million, alongside tiered high-mid-single-digit royalties.
- The company previously received approximately $1.6 billion from Operation Warp Speed in July 2020 to accelerate its COVID-19 vaccine development and manufacturing, and up to $388 million from CEPI for vaccine development and large-scale manufacturing (initial investment March 2020, additional funding May 2020).
Capital Expenditures
- Novavax reported capital expenditures of $57 million in 2021, $93 million in 2022, and $59 million in 2023, followed by -$178 million in 2024.
- Capital expenditures for the last 12 months prior to November 6, 2025, were -$5.42 million. More recently, capital expenditures for the last 12 months (as of February 26, 2026) were -$5.56 million.
- In October 2025, Novavax transferred the lease of its Maryland headquarters to AstraZeneca in a deal worth nearly $60 million, aiming to consolidate facilities, reduce operating costs, and focus on R&D and partnerships.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 7 | 9.7% | 79.7% | 140.2% | CAH 411% · MCK 348% · COR 179% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 20.0% | 41.9% | 9.5% | HIMS 302% · RDNT 143% · DGX 72% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 33.2% | -3.6% | 1.3% | OSCR 142% · HQY 64% · ELV 14% |
| Health Care Facilities | 24 | 11.9% | -3.3% | -15.7% | THC 289% · NHC 263% · ENSG 132% |
| Health Care Equipment | 51 | -2.3% | -9.2% | -18.9% | POCI 10738% · UFPT 396% · GKOS 288% |
| Health Care Supplies | 12 | 38.3% | -12.4% | -27.5% | LNTH 314% · HAE 81% · MMSI 31% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 63 | 3.1% | -1.7% | -31.9% | LQDA 2959% · INDV 1388% · ETON 1385% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 108 | -8.4% | -32.7% | -70.6% | SNWV 1953% · ELMD 259% · MEDP 235% |
| Health Care Technology | 20 | -28.4% | -53.8% | -73.9% | SPOK 37% · HSTM -2% · VEEV -24% |
| Biotechnology ← | 365 | 6.6% | -27.4% | -77.2% | BRTX 106400% · DNTH 1803% · CELZ 1443% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Novavax Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Can Novavax Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Novavax (NVAX) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Novavax (NVAX) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Novavax (NVAX) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Novavax (NVAX) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Novavax (NVAX) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Novavax (NVAX) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Novavax (NVAX) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| NVAX Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: SSII, BLND, TYRA | Losers: COTY, NVAX, HOV | 08/21/2025 | |
| Up 3x In A Week Will Novavax Stock Continue To See Higher Levels? | 05/16/2024 | |
| What’s Happening With Novavax Stock? | 05/03/2022 | |
| Down 18% Over The Last Month, What’s Next For Novavax Stock? | 03/16/2022 | |
| Novavax Files For U.S. Authorization. Is The Stock Finally A Buy? | 02/02/2022 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 99.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 166.8 |
| Rev LTM | 47,076 |
| Op Inc LTM | 9,350 |
| FCF LTM | 11,964 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,574 |
| CFO LTM | 13,476 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,247 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 166.8 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.2 |
| P/EBIT | 8.3 |
| P/E | 12.9 |
| P/CFO | 12.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 41.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 21.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In-house early-stage research and development (R&D) | 1,123 | 682 | 984 | 1,982 | |
| Grants | 949 | ||||
| Licensing, royalties, and other | 198 | ||||
| Product sales | 0 | ||||
| Total | 1,123 | 682 | 984 | 1,982 | 1,146 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| In-house early-stage research and development (R&D) | 440 | -187 | -545 |
| Total | 440 | -187 | -545 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $7.93 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/13/1995 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -29.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $8.44 | $8.43 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -6.1% | -5.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 57.7% | 64.5% |
| Downside Capture | 60.72 | 211.34 |
| Upside Capture | -2.44 | 143.73 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.9% | 37.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.36 | 0.92 | 1.73 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.43 |
| Up Beta | 2.21 | 4.63 | 5.72 | 2.92 | 2.76 | 0.99 |
| Down Beta | 0.28 | 1.14 | 1.55 | 2.03 | 1.46 | 0.70 |
| Up Capture | -191% | -140% | 27% | 97% | 225% | 882% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 15 | 26 | 55 | 115 | 333 |
| Down Capture | 175% | 96% | 79% | 155% | 148% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 27 | 36 | 70 | 133 | 407 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NVAX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVAX | -17.3% | 64.4% | -0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 26.3% | 15.5% | 1.31 | 20.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.4% | 12.8% | 1.17 | 37.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 29.8% | 28.5% | 0.91 | 24.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 40.2% | 20.2% | 1.56 | -13.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.9% | 0.65 | 22.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.4% | 42.7% | -1.30 | 26.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NVAX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVAX | -49.4% | 104.6% | -0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.6% | 15.0% | 0.25 | 22.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 29.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.8% | 18.6% | 0.87 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.8% | 19.6% | 0.39 | -1.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.4% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 22.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.1% | 52.6% | 0.32 | 16.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NVAX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVAX | -25.7% | 115.4% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.4% | 16.7% | 0.51 | 18.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 20.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 3.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 13.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.9% | 66.0% | 1.00 | 8.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/17/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | 0.5% | 3.4% | |
| 5/6/2026 | 15.6% | 18.8% | 25.8% |
| 2/26/2026 | 17.4% | 3.8% | -6.1% |
| 11/6/2025 | -1.3% | -6.4% | -11.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 12.6% | 26.0% | 15.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | -3.6% | 7.8% | -0.8% |
| 11/12/2024 | -6.1% | -13.1% | -2.1% |
| 5/10/2024 | 98.7% | 222.1% | 258.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 10.5% | 8.9% | 29.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -8.4% | -15.0% |
| Max Positive | 98.7% | 222.1% | 258.1% |
| Max Negative | -26.7% | -24.7% | -37.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | 0.5% | 3.4% | |
| 5/6/2026 | 15.6% | 18.8% | 25.8% |
| 2/26/2026 | 17.4% | 3.8% | -6.1% |
| 11/6/2025 | -1.3% | -6.4% | -11.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 12.6% | 26.0% | 15.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | -3.6% | 7.8% | -0.8% |
| 11/12/2024 | -6.1% | -13.1% | -2.1% |
| 5/10/2024 | 98.7% | 222.1% | 258.1% |
| 2/28/2024 | -26.7% | -7.5% | -19.4% |
| 1/8/2024 | 3.0% | -8.4% | -21.4% |
| 11/9/2023 | -1.3% | -8.8% | -18.1% |
| 8/8/2023 | -3.9% | -3.7% | 29.5% |
| 5/9/2023 | 27.8% | 8.9% | 3.0% |
| 2/28/2023 | -25.9% | -24.7% | -28.1% |
| 11/8/2022 | -5.2% | 18.2% | -11.9% |
| 8/9/2022 | 2.7% | 6.5% | -24.8% |
| 5/10/2022 | -20.3% | -3.5% | -23.0% |
| 3/1/2022 | 3.2% | -13.1% | -10.7% |
| 11/5/2021 | 8.7% | 6.7% | 14.9% |
| 8/6/2021 | 12.2% | 35.5% | 42.5% |
| 5/11/2021 | -7.5% | 4.6% | 48.3% |
| 3/2/2021 | -10.9% | -17.5% | -12.0% |
| 11/10/2020 | 8.0% | 18.0% | 46.2% |
| 8/11/2020 | -16.8% | -2.2% | -37.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 10.5% | 8.9% | 29.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -8.4% | -15.0% |
| Max Positive | 98.7% | 222.1% | 258.1% |
| Max Negative | -26.7% | -24.7% | -37.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/01/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/11/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/7/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Combined R&D and SG&A Expenses | 370.00 Mil | 390.00 Mil | 410.00 Mil | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 400.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Combined R&D and SG&A Expenses | 310.00 Mil | 325.00 Mil | 340.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 325.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Nuvaxovid Product Sales | 35.00 Mil | 40.00 Mil | 45.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 40.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Supply Sales | 45.00 Mil | 50.00 Mil | 55.00 Mil | 11.1% | Raised | Guidance: 45.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Licensing, Royalties and Other Revenue | 155.00 Mil | 165.00 Mil | 175.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 165.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Total Revenue | 235.00 Mil | 255.00 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 250.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Combined R&D and SG&A Expenses | 380.00 Mil | 400.00 Mil | 420.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 400.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Combined R&D and SG&A Expenses | 310.00 Mil | 325.00 Mil | 340.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 325.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Non-GAAP Combined R&D and SG&A Expenses | 225.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2028 Non-GAAP Combined R&D and SG&A Expenses | 150.00 Mil | 175.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | Raised | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Total Revenue | 230.00 Mil | 250.00 Mil | 270.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 250.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Nuvaxovid Product Sales | 35.00 Mil | 40.00 Mil | 45.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 40.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Supply Sales | 40.00 Mil | 45.00 Mil | 50.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 45.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Licensing, Royalties and Other Revenue | 155.00 Mil | 165.00 Mil | 175.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 165.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Combined R&D and SG&A Expenses | 380.00 Mil | 400.00 Mil | 420.00 Mil | -23.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 520.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Combined R&D and SG&A Expenses | 310.00 Mil | 325.00 Mil | 340.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted Total Revenue | 230.00 Mil | 250.00 Mil | 270.00 Mil | -76.2% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.05 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Nuvaxovid Product Sales | 35.00 Mil | 40.00 Mil | 45.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted Supply Sales | 40.00 Mil | 45.00 Mil | 50.00 Mil | 12.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 40.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Licensing, Royalties and Other Revenue | 155.00 Mil | 165.00 Mil | 175.00 Mil | -58.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 400.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Combined R&D and SG&A Expenses | 505.00 Mil | 520.00 Mil | 535.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 520.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Total Revenue | 1.04 Bil | 1.05 Bil | 1.06 Bil | 2.4% | Raised | Guidance: 1.02 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Supply Sales | 35.00 Mil | 40.00 Mil | 45.00 Mil | 23.1% | Raised | Guidance: 32.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Licensing, Royalties and Other Revenue | 395.00 Mil | 400.00 Mil | 405.00 Mil | 4.6% | Raised | Guidance: 382.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 19, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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