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Emergent BioSolutions (EBS)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $12.215 | Market Cap: $662.1 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals

Emergent BioSolutions (EBS)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $12.215
Market Cap: $662.1 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Pharmaceuticals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 32%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.9%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -66%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -47%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Vaccine Development, Medical Countermeasures, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.86, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 126%
3   Key risks
EBS key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on volatile government contracts, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 32%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Vaccine Development, Medical Countermeasures, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.9%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -66%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.86, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -47%
8 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 126%
9 Key risks
EBS key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on volatile government contracts, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EBS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) experienced a significant positive stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, driven by several key factors including strong financial performance, strategic contract awards, manufacturing approvals, and positive analyst sentiment.

1. Emergent BioSolutions reported stronger-than-expected Q2 and Q3 2025 financial results, raising its full-year guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. In August 2025, the company announced Q2 2025 revenues of $141 million, surpassing its guidance, and significantly improved year-to-date adjusted EBITDA, leading to an increase in its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance. Subsequently, in October 2025, Q3 2025 results exceeded both earnings and revenue estimates, with revenue reaching $231.1 million and net income at $51.2 million, further prompting an upgrade to its full-year 2025 outlook.

2. The company secured multiple substantial government and international contracts for its biodefense products. Emergent BioSolutions was awarded a $30 million contract modification for CYFENDUS® (Anthrax Vaccine Adsorbed, Adjuvanted) in September 2025. Additionally, it received new contract modifications for ACAM2000® (Smallpox and Mpox Vaccine) from the U.S. government and a $17 million modification for oral suspension TEMBEXA® (brincidofovir). The company also secured new purchase orders totaling $29 million from an international government partner for a multi-product supply agreement, with retail sentiment noting the stock as "significantly undervalued" following the announcement. These contract successes underscore the continued demand for its medical countermeasures.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EBS Return66%-51%-73%-80%298%28%-77%
Peers Return100%48%-2%2%-18%2%147%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EBS Win Rate58%25%25%25%58%67% 
Peers Win Rate53%60%45%42%42%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EBS Max Drawdown-9%-63%-75%-85%-38%-55% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-9%-22%-32%-28%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SIGA, AMPH, PFE, JNJ, MRNA. See EBS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEBSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-98.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven6778.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven70.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-45.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven83.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven329 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-72.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven260.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven305 days1,480 days

Compare to LHI, LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE


In The Past

Emergent BioSolutions's stock fell -98.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -98.5% loss requires a 6778.6% gain to breakeven.

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About Emergent BioSolutions (EBS)

Better Bets than Emergent BioSolutions (EBS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EBS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
EBS_10312022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312022EBSEmergent BioSolutionsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-57.5%-90.0%-90.4%
EBS_4302022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE04302022EBSEmergent BioSolutionsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-33.8%-72.7%-75.9%
EBS_5312021_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE05312021EBSEmergent BioSolutionsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-30.6%-45.7%-53.9%
EBS_11302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11302020EBSEmergent BioSolutionsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-26.0%-46.1%-59.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
EBS_10312022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312022EBSEmergent BioSolutionsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-57.5%-90.0%-90.4%
EBS_4302022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE04302022EBSEmergent BioSolutionsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-33.8%-72.7%-75.9%
EBS_5312021_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE05312021EBSEmergent BioSolutionsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-30.6%-45.7%-53.9%
EBS_11302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11302020EBSEmergent BioSolutionsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-26.0%-46.1%-59.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Emergent BioSolutions

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EBSSIGAAMPHPFEJNJMRNAMedian
NameEmergent.SIGA Tec.Amphasta.Pfizer Johnson .Moderna  
Mkt Price12.216.3826.0725.04210.3330.5125.55
Mkt Cap0.70.51.2142.4506.511.96.6
Rev LTM81217272362,78692,1492,2021,507
Op Inc LTM1069015015,41724,146-3,463128
FCF LTM15511611110,37618,679-2,663136
FCF 3Y Avg-55651408,92717,814-3,092103
CFO LTM16911715213,07724,204-1,978161
CFO 3Y Avg-116517812,12723,209-2,421122

Growth & Margins

EBSSIGAAMPHPFEJNJMRNAMedian
NameEmergent.SIGA Tec.Amphasta.Pfizer Johnson .Moderna  
Rev Chg LTM-24.4%-0.9%-0.0%3.9%5.1%-56.4%-0.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-16.9%104.9%14.8%-13.2%6.1%-52.3%-3.6%
Rev Chg Q-47.5%-73.8%0.3%-5.9%6.8%-46.0%-25.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-12.7%-4.1%0.1%-1.6%1.7%-27.9%-2.9%
Op Mgn LTM13.1%52.4%20.7%24.6%26.2%-157.3%22.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-9.3%28.1%26.8%19.4%26.4%-79.9%22.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM20.8%-3.8%-4.4%-1.4%1.7%-50.1%-2.6%
CFO/Rev LTM20.8%67.7%21.1%20.8%26.3%-89.8%20.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg0.3%43.6%26.3%18.9%26.4%-58.7%22.6%
FCF/Rev LTM19.1%67.5%15.3%16.5%20.3%-120.9%17.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-4.0%43.6%20.7%13.9%20.3%-76.1%17.1%

Valuation

EBSSIGAAMPHPFEJNJMRNAMedian
NameEmergent.SIGA Tec.Amphasta.Pfizer Johnson .Moderna  
Mkt Cap0.70.51.2142.4506.511.96.6
P/S0.63.81.72.34.84.63.1
P/EBIT2.07.37.712.213.8-3.27.5
P/E3.48.811.114.717.8-3.29.9
P/CFO2.85.68.111.118.4-5.16.9
Total Yield29.2%11.4%9.0%13.5%8.4%-30.9%10.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%6.7%2.7%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-55.7%11.5%7.5%5.5%4.4%-16.2%4.9%
D/E1.40.00.50.40.10.10.3
Net D/E0.8-0.30.30.30.1-0.40.2

Returns

EBSSIGAAMPHPFEJNJMRNAMedian
NameEmergent.SIGA Tec.Amphasta.Pfizer Johnson .Moderna  
1M Rtn20.9%8.1%0.2%-0.2%6.1%23.2%7.1%
3M Rtn56.7%-26.3%-3.4%5.9%19.5%22.0%12.7%
6M Rtn93.5%-0.6%2.9%8.5%41.5%20.1%14.3%
12M Rtn38.9%15.7%-36.2%1.6%48.1%-25.1%8.6%
3Y Rtn8.1%7.2%-9.1%-42.1%31.2%-84.2%-1.0%
1M Excs Rtn20.2%7.4%-0.5%-0.9%5.3%22.5%6.4%
3M Excs Rtn52.4%-29.4%-6.3%4.2%20.2%18.5%11.3%
6M Excs Rtn81.1%-13.0%-9.5%-3.8%29.1%7.7%1.9%
12M Excs Rtn32.9%2.9%-49.4%-6.1%36.8%-38.1%-1.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-65.9%-64.5%-77.4%-111.3%-38.9%-150.0%-71.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Commercial Products497387   
Medical Countermeasures (MCM) Products447580   
Services78110635167 
Contracts and grants revenues2641134115 
Products  1,024  
ACAM2000   198244
Anthrax vaccines   376172
Leases   284 
Nasal naloxone products   307 
Other product   109208
Contract development and manufacturing services    80
Contracts and grants    122
NARCAN Nasal Spray    280
Total1,0491,1181,7931,5551,106


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,917,402
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-3.7%
Average Daily Volume820,810
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.86
Basic Shares Quantity54,200,000
Short % of Basic Shares16.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/202536.6%10.0%14.8%
8/6/202536.7%45.8%25.7%
3/3/2025-6.4%-17.7%-30.6%
11/6/202419.6%8.4%-2.1%
8/6/2024-42.0%-31.2%-22.6%
3/6/2024-15.0%-31.3%-29.8%
11/8/2023-2.7%0.0%12.7%
8/8/2023-17.8%-27.9%-39.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive866
# Negative141616
Median Positive8.9%9.2%13.7%
Median Negative-11.6%-15.7%-22.4%
Max Positive36.7%45.8%25.7%
Max Negative-42.0%-32.6%-39.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024304202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023308202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231211202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021