Emergent BioSolutions (EBS)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $12.45 | Market Cap: $674.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Emergent BioSolutions (EBS)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $12.45Market Cap: $674.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%, FCF Yield is 23% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -67% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Vaccine Development, Medical Countermeasures, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.86, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 126% |
| Key risksEBS key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on volatile government contracts, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%, FCF Yield is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Vaccine Development, Medical Countermeasures, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -67% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.86, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 59% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -47% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 126% |
| Key risksEBS key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on volatile government contracts, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EBS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) stock moved by 49.6% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Upgraded Guidance: Emergent BioSolutions reported robust financial performance for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, with total revenues of $231.1 million, exceeding the high end of its guidance by $21.0 million. The company also announced a net income of $51.2 million and subsequently raised its full-year 2025 revenue and profitability guidance, which typically generates significant investor confidence.
2. FDA Approval for Raxibacumab Manufacturing at Winnipeg Facility: On December 12, 2025, the U.S. FDA approved Emergent BioSolutions' Winnipeg, Canada facility for the manufacturing of raxibacumab, a monoclonal antibody used for treating and preventing inhalational anthrax. This approval is a crucial step in the company's multi-year transformation strategy aimed at consolidating manufacturing operations and enhancing its network to support long-term growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EBS Return | 66% | -51% | -73% | -80% | 298% | 29% | -77% |
| Peers Return | 100% | 48% | -2% | 2% | -18% | 2% | 148% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EBS Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 60% | 45% | 42% | 42% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EBS Max Drawdown | -9% | -63% | -75% | -85% | -38% | -55% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -9% | -22% | -32% | -28% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SIGA, AMPH, PFE, JNJ, MRNA. See EBS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EBS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 6778.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -72.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 260.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 305 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ACT, ALKS, LIVN, PRGO, PCRX
In The Past
Emergent BioSolutions's stock fell -98.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -98.5% loss requires a 6778.6% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EBS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
| 10312022 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -57.5% | -90.0% | -90.4% |
| 04302022 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -33.8% | -72.7% | -75.9% |
| 05312021 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -30.6% | -45.7% | -53.9% |
| 11302020 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -26.0% | -46.1% | -59.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
| 10312022 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -57.5% | -90.0% | -90.4% |
| 04302022 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -33.8% | -72.7% | -75.9% |
| 05312021 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -30.6% | -45.7% | -53.9% |
| 11302020 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -26.0% | -46.1% | -59.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Emergent BioSolutions
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.90 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,507 |
| Op Inc LTM | 128 |
| FCF LTM | 136 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 103 |
| CFO LTM | 161 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 122 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -25.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.2 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 6.3 |
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/CFO | 6.1 |
| Total Yield | 11.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 0.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -73.7% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA214460 | TEMBEXA | brincidofovir | suspension | 6042021 | -1.8% | -35.0% | -49.9% | -87.2% | -80.7% |
| NDA214461 | TEMBEXA | brincidofovir | tablet | 6042021 | -1.8% | -35.0% | -49.9% | -87.2% | -80.7% |
| NDA208411 | NARCAN | naloxone hydrochloride | spray, metered | 11182015 | 0.6% | 12.9% | -13.8% | 9.1% | -64.1% |
| BLA021538 | ACCRETROPIN | somatropin | injectable | 1232008 | 26.3% | 84.1% | 233.0% | 103.7% | 90.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Products | 497 | 387 | |||
| Medical Countermeasures (MCM) Products | 447 | 580 | |||
| Services | 78 | 110 | 635 | 167 | |
| Contracts and grants revenues | 26 | 41 | 134 | 115 | |
| Products | 1,024 | ||||
| ACAM2000 | 198 | 244 | |||
| Anthrax vaccines | 376 | 172 | |||
| Leases | 284 | ||||
| Nasal naloxone products | 307 | ||||
| Other product | 109 | 208 | |||
| Contract development and manufacturing services | 80 | ||||
| Contracts and grants | 122 | ||||
| NARCAN Nasal Spray | 280 | ||||
| Total | 1,049 | 1,118 | 1,793 | 1,555 | 1,106 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 36.6% | 10.0% | 14.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 36.7% | 45.8% | 25.7% |
| 3/3/2025 | -6.4% | -17.7% | -30.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | 19.6% | 8.4% | -2.1% |
| 8/6/2024 | -42.0% | -31.2% | -22.6% |
| 3/6/2024 | -15.0% | -31.3% | -29.8% |
| 11/8/2023 | -2.7% | 0.0% | 12.7% |
| 8/8/2023 | -17.8% | -27.9% | -39.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| # Negative | 14 | 16 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 8.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% |
| Median Negative | -11.6% | -15.7% | -22.4% |
| Max Positive | 36.7% | 45.8% | 25.7% |
| Max Negative | -42.0% | -32.6% | -39.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 12112023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |