Emergent BioSolutions (EBS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $12.215 | Market Cap: $662.1 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Emergent BioSolutions (EBS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $12.215Market Cap: $662.1 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 32% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -66% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Vaccine Development, Medical Countermeasures, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.86, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 126% |
| Key risksEBS key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on volatile government contracts, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Vaccine Development, Medical Countermeasures, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -66% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.86, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 84% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -47% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 126% |
| Key risksEBS key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on volatile government contracts, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EBS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) experienced a significant positive stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, driven by several key factors including strong financial performance, strategic contract awards, manufacturing approvals, and positive analyst sentiment.
1. Emergent BioSolutions reported stronger-than-expected Q2 and Q3 2025 financial results, raising its full-year guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. In August 2025, the company announced Q2 2025 revenues of $141 million, surpassing its guidance, and significantly improved year-to-date adjusted EBITDA, leading to an increase in its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance. Subsequently, in October 2025, Q3 2025 results exceeded both earnings and revenue estimates, with revenue reaching $231.1 million and net income at $51.2 million, further prompting an upgrade to its full-year 2025 outlook.
2. The company secured multiple substantial government and international contracts for its biodefense products. Emergent BioSolutions was awarded a $30 million contract modification for CYFENDUS® (Anthrax Vaccine Adsorbed, Adjuvanted) in September 2025. Additionally, it received new contract modifications for ACAM2000® (Smallpox and Mpox Vaccine) from the U.S. government and a $17 million modification for oral suspension TEMBEXA® (brincidofovir). The company also secured new purchase orders totaling $29 million from an international government partner for a multi-product supply agreement, with retail sentiment noting the stock as "significantly undervalued" following the announcement. These contract successes underscore the continued demand for its medical countermeasures.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EBS Return | 66% | -51% | -73% | -80% | 298% | 28% | -77% |
| Peers Return | 100% | 48% | -2% | 2% | -18% | 2% | 147% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EBS Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 60% | 45% | 42% | 42% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EBS Max Drawdown | -9% | -63% | -75% | -85% | -38% | -55% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -9% | -22% | -32% | -28% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SIGA, AMPH, PFE, JNJ, MRNA. See EBS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EBS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 6778.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -72.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 260.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 305 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to LHI, LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE
In The Past
Emergent BioSolutions's stock fell -98.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -98.5% loss requires a 6778.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EBS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| 10312022 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -57.5% | -90.0% | -90.4% |
| 04302022 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -33.8% | -72.7% | -75.9% |
| 05312021 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -30.6% | -45.7% | -53.9% |
| 11302020 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -26.0% | -46.1% | -59.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| 10312022 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -57.5% | -90.0% | -90.4% |
| 04302022 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -33.8% | -72.7% | -75.9% |
| 05312021 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -30.6% | -45.7% | -53.9% |
| 11302020 | EBS | Emergent BioSolutions | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -26.0% | -46.1% | -59.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Emergent BioSolutions
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,507 |
| Op Inc LTM | 128 |
| FCF LTM | 136 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 103 |
| CFO LTM | 161 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 122 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -25.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.6 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/EBIT | 7.5 |
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/CFO | 6.9 |
| Total Yield | 10.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -1.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Products | 497 | 387 | |||
| Medical Countermeasures (MCM) Products | 447 | 580 | |||
| Services | 78 | 110 | 635 | 167 | |
| Contracts and grants revenues | 26 | 41 | 134 | 115 | |
| Products | 1,024 | ||||
| ACAM2000 | 198 | 244 | |||
| Anthrax vaccines | 376 | 172 | |||
| Leases | 284 | ||||
| Nasal naloxone products | 307 | ||||
| Other product | 109 | 208 | |||
| Contract development and manufacturing services | 80 | ||||
| Contracts and grants | 122 | ||||
| NARCAN Nasal Spray | 280 | ||||
| Total | 1,049 | 1,118 | 1,793 | 1,555 | 1,106 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 36.6% | 10.0% | 14.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 36.7% | 45.8% | 25.7% |
| 3/3/2025 | -6.4% | -17.7% | -30.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | 19.6% | 8.4% | -2.1% |
| 8/6/2024 | -42.0% | -31.2% | -22.6% |
| 3/6/2024 | -15.0% | -31.3% | -29.8% |
| 11/8/2023 | -2.7% | 0.0% | 12.7% |
| 8/8/2023 | -17.8% | -27.9% | -39.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| # Negative | 14 | 16 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 8.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% |
| Median Negative | -11.6% | -15.7% | -22.4% |
| Max Positive | 36.7% | 45.8% | 25.7% |
| Max Negative | -42.0% | -32.6% | -39.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 12112023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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