SIGA Technologies (SIGA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.21 | Market Cap: $444.7 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
SIGA Technologies (SIGA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.21Market Cap: $444.7 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 18% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -74% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26% | ||
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 52% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Antiviral Drug Development, and Biodefense & Pandemic Preparedness. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 18% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 52% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Antiviral Drug Development, and Biodefense & Pandemic Preparedness. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -74% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SIGA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -25.6% movement in SIGA Technologies (SIGA) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Sharp Drop in Q3 2025 Revenue and Net Loss
SIGA Technologies reported a substantial decrease in quarterly revenue to US$2.62 million for the third quarter of 2025, resulting in a net loss of US$6.37 million, a significant downturn compared to a profit in the same period of the previous year. This news directly led to a stock decline of over 20% on the day of the announcement.
2. Decline in TPOXX Sales
The sharp revenue drop in Q3 2025 was primarily attributed to a significant decline in sales of TPOXX, the company's main antiviral treatment. This emphasized the company's dependence on government procurement cycles and international regulatory progress, highlighting the volatility in these sales.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SIGA Return | 52% | 3% | 4% | -18% | 15% | 9% | 70% |
| Peers Return | 7% | 30% | 20% | -3% | 7% | 16% | 99% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SIGA Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 55% | 63% | 38% | 47% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SIGA Max Drawdown | -16% | -21% | -21% | -36% | -19% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -7% | -11% | -23% | -10% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SIGA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 505.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 709 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 197.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 387 days | 1480 days |
Compare to LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY
In The Past
SIGA Technologies's stock fell -83.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/15/2022. A -83.5% loss requires a 505.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With SIGA Technologies Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SIGA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for SIGA Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 76.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 200.3 |
| Rev LTM | 58,022 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18,904 |
| FCF LTM | 11,712 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,262 |
| CFO LTM | 14,849 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,487 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 200.3 |
| P/S | 3.5 |
| P/EBIT | 10.7 |
| P/E | 15.0 |
| P/CFO | 11.7 |
| Total Yield | 11.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -76.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |