SIGA Technologies (SIGA)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $6.31 | Market Cap: $451.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
SIGA Technologies (SIGA)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $6.31Market Cap: $451.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 18% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -74% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26% | ||
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 52% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Antiviral Drug Development, and Biodefense & Pandemic Preparedness. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.2%, FCF Yield is 18% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 52% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Antiviral Drug Development, and Biodefense & Pandemic Preparedness. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -74% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SIGA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -24.4% stock movement for SIGA Technologies (symbol: SIGA) from late August 2025 to December 5, 2025: **1. Poor Third-Quarter 2025 Financial Results.** SIGA Technologies reported a significant drop in quarterly revenue to US$2.62 million and a net loss of US$6.37 million for the third quarter of 2025, contrasting with a profit in the same period last year. This announcement, made on November 6, 2025, directly led to the company's share price falling by over 20%. **2. Sharp Decline in TPOXX Sales.** A major contributor to the poor financial results was a sharp decline in quarterly sales of TPOXX, SIGA's primary antiviral treatment. This intensified concerns about the company's dependence on government procurement contracts. **3. Increased Market Risk from Volatility in Government Procurement Cycles.** The significant drop in Q3 revenue highlighted the company's high reliance on procurement cycles, especially from U.S. government agencies. This volatility increased market perception of risk regarding future contract timing and revenue consistency. **4. Regulatory Scrutiny and Questions on TPOXX Effectiveness in Europe.** On December 1, 2025, the European Medicines Agency's (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use initiated a referral procedure for Tecovirimat-SIGA (TPOXX) due to questions about its effectiveness in treating mpox. This raised concerns about future international demand for the product. **5. Bearish Technical Signals and Negative Short-Term Forecasts.** Technical indicators and short-term stock forecasts around late November and early December 2025 showed a bearish sentiment for SIGA. Forecasts predicted further declines, including a potential drop of -5.05% by December 29, 2025, and a possible -32.66% fall over the subsequent three months, reflecting a generally negative outlook in the market.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SIGA Return | 52% | 3% | 4% | -18% | 15% | 16% | 82% |
| Peers Return | 7% | 30% | 20% | -3% | 7% | 16% | 100% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SIGA Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 55% | 63% | 38% | 47% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SIGA Max Drawdown | -16% | -21% | -21% | -36% | -19% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -7% | -11% | -23% | -10% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SIGA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 505.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 709 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 197.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 387 days | 1480 days |
Compare to LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY
In The Past
SIGA Technologies's stock fell -83.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/15/2022. A -83.5% loss requires a 505.3% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With SIGA Technologies Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SIGA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for SIGA Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 76.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 198.9 |
| Rev LTM | 58,022 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18,904 |
| FCF LTM | 11,712 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,262 |
| CFO LTM | 14,849 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,487 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 198.9 |
| P/S | 3.5 |
| P/EBIT | 10.7 |
| P/E | 15.0 |
| P/CFO | 11.7 |
| Total Yield | 11.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -1.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -78.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |