Federal Signal (FSS)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $106.67 | Market Cap: $6.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Federal Signal (FSS)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $106.67Market Cap: $6.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Wastewater Management, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19% | Key risksFSS key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on government and municipal spending that historically lags the U.S. Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Wastewater Management, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19% |
| Key risksFSS key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on government and municipal spending that historically lags the U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 5/26/2026
Federal Signal (FSS) stock has remained largely at the same level since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Beat Followed by Limited Sustained Upside.
Federal Signal reported exceptional first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, 2026, significantly beating analyst expectations. The company posted an adjusted EPS of $1.18, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.89 by $0.29, or 32.58%. Quarterly revenue also rose substantially by 35% year-over-year to $626 million, surpassing analysts' expectations of approximately $580 million by 7.78%. Following these strong results and a raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.80–$5.05, the stock initially jumped by 10.19% in pre-market trading to $123.13. However, after this initial surge, the stock largely traded sideways, suggesting that the positive news was quickly priced into the valuation, and further sustained upward momentum was limited.
2. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Broad Industrial Sector Pressure.
Despite the robust company-specific performance, Federal Signal's stock movement was influenced by broader macroeconomic factors that created a ceiling for sustained gains. Elevated Treasury yields, rising oil prices, and hotter-than-expected April Producer Price Index (PPI) data (up 6% year-over-year) contributed to a "risk-off rotation" out of cyclical industrial stocks. These pressures weighed on the sector as a whole, tempering enthusiasm for FSS even after its impressive earnings, leading to modest pullbacks and sideways trading activity.
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Federal Signal (FSS) stock has remained largely at the same level since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Beat Followed by Limited Sustained Upside.
Federal Signal reported exceptional first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, 2026, significantly beating analyst expectations. The company posted an adjusted EPS of $1.18, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.89 by $0.29, or 32.58%. Quarterly revenue also rose substantially by 35% year-over-year to $626 million, surpassing analysts' expectations of approximately $580 million by 7.78%. Following these strong results and a raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.80–$5.05, the stock initially jumped by 10.19% in pre-market trading to $123.13. However, after this initial surge, the stock largely traded sideways, suggesting that the positive news was quickly priced into the valuation, and further sustained upward momentum was limited.
2. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Broad Industrial Sector Pressure.
Despite the robust company-specific performance, Federal Signal's stock movement was influenced by broader macroeconomic factors that created a ceiling for sustained gains. Elevated Treasury yields, rising oil prices, and hotter-than-expected April Producer Price Index (PPI) data (up 6% year-over-year) contributed to a "risk-off rotation" out of cyclical industrial stocks. These pressures weighed on the sector as a whole, tempering enthusiasm for FSS even after its impressive earnings, leading to modest pullbacks and sideways trading activity.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.0% change in FSS stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 107.80 | 106.70 | -1.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,055 | 2,342 | 14.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.5% | 11.6% | 0.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.7 | 24.0 | -13.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 61 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FSS | -1.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | 45.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.9% | 62.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.2% change in FSS stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 117.56 | 106.70 | -9.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,055 | 2,342 | 14.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.5% | 11.6% | 0.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.3 | 24.0 | -20.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 61 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FSS | -9.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | 49.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.4% | 62.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.9% change in FSS stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 80.90 | 106.70 | 31.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,900 | 2,342 | 23.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.1% | 11.6% | 4.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.4 | 24.0 | 2.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 61 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FSS | 31.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 38.0% | 44.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.7% | 51.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 111.6% change in FSS stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 63.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.42 | 106.70 | 111.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,435 | 2,342 | 63.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.4% | 11.6% | 37.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.3 | 24.0 | -5.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 61 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 111.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FSS | 111.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.0% | 52.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 81.1% | 63.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FSS Return | 32% | 8% | 66% | 21% | 18% | 5% | 255% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 10% | 24% | 8% | 21% | 18% | 139% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FSS Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 45% | 52% | 55% | 58% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FSS Max Drawdown | -16% | -27% | -14% | -18% | -32% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -31% | -23% | -24% | -35% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PCAR, OSK, WNC, CAT, CMI. See FSS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FSS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 107 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -11.4% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 255 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Federal Signal's stock fell -30.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 43.1% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | FSS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 107 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 255 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -35.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 340 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1101 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -67.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 210.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1619 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.4% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 391 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Federal Signal's stock fell -30.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 43.1% gain to breakeven.
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Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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About Federal Signal (FSS)
Federal Signal Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and supplies a suite of products and integrated solutions for municipal, governmental, industrial, and commercial customers in the United States, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Environmental Solutions Group, and Safety and Security Systems Group. The Environmental Solutions Group segment offers a range of street sweepers, safe-digging trucks ,sewer cleaners, industrial vacuum loaders, vacuum, and hydro-excavation trucks; road-marking, line-removal and waterblasting equipment, dump truck bodies, trailers, and metal extraction support equipment under the Elgin, Vactor, Guzzler, TRUVAC, Westech, Jetstream, Mark Rite Lines, Ox Bodies, Crysteel, J-Craft, Duraclass, Rugby, Travis, OSW, NTE, WTB, Ground Force, Bucks, and Switch-N-Go brand names. It also offers refuse and recycling collection vehicles, camera systems, ice resurfacing equipment, and snow-removal equipment, as well as safety, and security systems. In addition, this segment engages in the sale of parts, service and repair, equipment rental, and training activities. The Safety and Security Systems Group segment provides systems and products for community alerting, emergency vehicles, first responder interoperable communications, and industrial communications. Its products include vehicle lightbars and sirens, industrial signaling equipment, public warning systems, general alarm systems, and public address systems. This segment sells its products under the Federal Signal, Federal Signal VAMA, and Victor brand names. The company sells its products through wholesaler, distributor, independent manufacturer representative, original equipment manufacturer, and direct sales force, as well as independent foreign distributor. Federal Signal Corporation was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois.
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- A John Deere for urban and industrial maintenance, plus public safety systems.
- The Oshkosh Corporation of municipal services and public safety technology.
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- Environmental Maintenance Vehicles: A suite of specialized vehicles including street sweepers, sewer cleaners, industrial vacuum loaders, and hydro-excavation trucks.
- Road & Infrastructure Equipment: Products for road-marking, line-removal, waterblasting, as well as snow-removal and ice resurfacing equipment.
- Heavy Vehicle Components: Manufactures dump truck bodies, various trailers, and metal extraction support equipment.
- Refuse & Recycling Vehicles: Specialized vehicles designed for the collection of refuse and recyclable materials.
- Vehicle Safety & Warning Systems: Provides vehicle lightbars, sirens, and camera systems for emergency and industrial vehicles.
- Public Warning & Communication Systems: Systems for community alerting, industrial signaling, public warning, general alarm, and public address.
- Aftermarket Services: Offers parts sales, equipment service and repair, equipment rental, and training activities.
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Federal Signal (FSS) Major Customers
Federal Signal (FSS) primarily sells its products and integrated solutions to other organizations and entities, rather than directly to individuals. Based on the company description, its major customer categories are:
- Municipal Customers: This includes cities, towns, and local government agencies that purchase products like street sweepers, sewer cleaners, refuse and recycling collection vehicles, ice resurfacing equipment, snow-removal equipment, community alerting systems, and emergency vehicle equipment (lightbars, sirens).
- Governmental Customers: This encompasses various levels of government (beyond local municipalities) and first responder organizations that utilize products for emergency vehicles, first responder interoperable communications, and public warning systems.
- Industrial and Commercial Customers: Businesses and industrial operations purchase items such as safe-digging trucks, industrial vacuum loaders, hydro-excavation trucks, road-marking and line-removal equipment, dump truck bodies, trailers, metal extraction support equipment, and industrial signaling and communication systems.
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Jennifer L. Sherman, President and Chief Executive Officer
Jennifer L. Sherman has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Federal Signal Corporation since January 1, 2016, and has also been a director since 2016. She joined the company in 1994 and has held various leadership roles, including Chief Operating Officer from 2014 to 2015, Chief Administrative Officer, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary. Prior to joining Federal Signal, Ms. Sherman began her career as a corporate attorney with a focus on commercial contract disputes, labor law, bankruptcy, securities, and collections. She currently serves as Chairperson of the Board of Directors of Franklin Electric Company, Inc.
Ian A. Hudson, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Ian A. Hudson was promoted to Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Federal Signal Corporation on October 24, 2017, after serving as Interim Chief Financial Officer starting in March 2017. He previously held the position of Vice President and Corporate Controller for the company from August 2013 to May 2017. Before joining Federal Signal, Mr. Hudson was the Director of Accounting – Latin America and Asia Pacific at Groupon, Inc. from June 2012 to August 2013. His earlier career included working at Ernst & Young, LLP from 1998 to 2012, where he was a Senior Audit Manager in the retail, consumer products, and industrial products group.
Mark D. Weber, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Mark D. Weber serves as the Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Federal Signal Corporation. He was appointed to this role on December 18, 2017.
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The key risks to Federal Signal's business include its reliance on government budgets, potential supply chain vulnerabilities, and the challenges associated with integrating acquisitions.
- Reliance on Government Budgets: A significant portion of Federal Signal's revenue is derived from municipal and governmental customers. A decline in government budgets or shifts in policy could lead to delayed purchases, impacting the company's sales and earnings performance.
- Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Federal Signal faces potential risks from supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly concerning vehicle chassis, which could hinder the company's ability to meet future growth expectations.
- Acquisition Integration Challenges: While Federal Signal has a history of successful acquisitions, future business integrations could present challenges or result in overspending, potentially affecting financial performance.
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Federal Signal Corporation participates in several addressable markets through its Environmental Solutions Group and Safety and Security Systems Group. The market sizes for its main products and services are outlined below:
Environmental Solutions Group
- Street Sweepers: The global street sweeper market was valued at approximately USD 2.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 3.2 billion by 2034. In the United States, the market for street sweepers was worth over USD 340 million in 2024. North America is a significant market, holding approximately 45% of the global market share.
- Hydro-Excavation Trucks (Safe-Digging Trucks): The global hydrovac trucks/hydro excavation market size was recorded at USD 513.529 million in 2021 and is projected to reach USD 880.937 million by 2033. The U.S. hydro excavation truck market size is expected to reach approximately USD 986.3 million by 2034, growing from USD 501.4 million in 2024. North America held a significant 27.86% share of the global market in 2025.
- Sewer Cleaners (Drain Cleaning Equipment): The global drain cleaning equipment market was valued at USD 1,786.11 million in 2022. Another estimate places the market at approximately USD 2.5 billion in 2025. The global sales of drain cleaning equipment are anticipated to reach USD 271.7 million by 2024, with a projected growth to USD 516.2 million by 2035. The market is expected to reach US$ 4,088.12 million by 2031, from US$ 2,254.07 million in 2024. North America is a dominant region in this market, with the USA expected to maintain a 72.7% value share in North America by 2035.
- Industrial Vacuum Loaders: The global industrial vacuum loaders market size was USD 504.20 million in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 794.40 million by 2032. Another analysis estimated the global industrial vacuum loader market at approximately USD 2.5 billion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 3.5 billion to USD 4 billion by 2029.
- Road-Marking Equipment: The global road marking equipment market is projected to be USD 1.5 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 2.6 billion by 2035. Another report estimates the global road marking machine market size was valued at USD 10.23 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 20.85 billion by 2033. North America is a leading market, with a significant market size of USD 2385.0 million in 2025. The U.S. road marking machine market was valued at USD 1.08 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 2.32 billion by 2032.
- Refuse and Recycling Collection Vehicles: The recycling trucks market size was valued at USD 7.6 billion in 2023. The global vehicle recycling market size was valued at USD 105.5 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 329.9 billion by 2034. Another estimate indicates the global vehicle recycling market size is likely to be US$ 110.1 billion in 2025, reaching US$ 286.8 billion by 2032. North America held the lead with a 42.36% revenue share in 2024.
Safety and Security Systems Group
- Emergency Vehicle Lighting and Sirens: The broader global emergency lighting market, which includes components for emergency vehicles, was valued at USD 8.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 15.66 billion by 2034. North America holds a dominant share of the emergency lighting market, with the regional market valued at USD 2.69 billion in 2025. The global outdoor warning sirens market, a component of emergency alerting, was valued at USD 169.43 million in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 275.33 million by 2034.
- Industrial Signaling Equipment: The global industrial signaling equipment market was valued at USD 864 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1,214 million by 2034. The global signaling devices market was valued at USD 4.2 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 7.2 billion in 2035. The U.S. signaling devices market was valued at USD 1.2 billion in 2025.
- Public Warning Systems (Community Alerting, General Alarm Systems, Public Address Systems): The global public warning systems market size stood at USD 5.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 10.2 billion by 2033. The mass notification system market is projected to grow from USD 28.88 billion in 2025 to USD 80.44 billion by 2030. North America holds the largest share of the global public warning systems market, accounting for approximately USD 1.8 billion in 2024.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Federal Signal (FSS) over the next 2-3 years:- Strong Backlog and Sustained Demand: Federal Signal has reported record orders and a robust backlog, which provides strong visibility for future revenue. For example, in Q1 2024, the company achieved a record backlog of $1.10 billion, representing a 14% increase year-over-year. This sustained demand for its environmental and safety solutions, balanced between publicly funded and industrial sectors, underpins future sales performance.
- Strategic Acquisitions: The company has a history of strategic acquisitions, with 16 since 2016, that are designed to strengthen key verticals and expand product offerings. Recent examples include the acquisition of New Way Trucks in November 2025, which adds refuse collection vehicles and aftermarket parts and is expected to contribute to growth and provide EBITDA synergies. These acquisitions provide new revenue streams and enhance market position.
- Expansion of Aftermarket Parts and Services: Federal Signal's aftermarket parts business currently comprises approximately 30% of total revenues and holds significant potential for further scaling. Opportunities exist to expand the distribution reach for newly acquired product lines, such as New Way's offerings into underserved territories including Canada, thereby driving recurring revenue growth.
- New Product Development and Innovation: Federal Signal is committed to ongoing investment in new product development, which is expected to be a key driver for long-term sustainable growth. Continuous innovation and the launch of new products within both the Environmental Solutions Group and Safety and Security Systems Group will cater to evolving customer needs and market demands.
- Price Realization: The company has demonstrated its ability to implement price increases effectively, with "continued price realization" cited as a meaningful contributor to net sales growth, particularly within the Environmental Solutions Group. This ability to manage pricing in response to market conditions and input costs will continue to support revenue expansion.
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Share Repurchases
- Federal Signal's Board of Directors authorized an additional stock repurchase program of up to $150 million on April 22, 2025.
- This new authorization supplements a prior program from March 2020, which had approximately $27 million remaining as of the end of the first quarter of 2025.
- Over the last five years (2021-2025), cash returns to stockholders, which include share repurchases and dividends, totaled $214 million.
Outbound Investments
- In September 2025, Federal Signal completed the acquisition of Newwaytrucks, a manufacturer of refuse trucks and related parts, for $396 million.
- The company signed an agreement in December 2025 to acquire Mega Corp., a manufacturer of specialty vehicles for metal extraction and construction markets, for $45.5 million, with the acquisition completed in January 2026.
- Federal Signal acquired Ground Force Worldwide for $45 million in September 2021 to enhance its material hauling product offerings.
Capital Expenditures
- Planned capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 are projected to range from $45 million to $55 million.
- Approximately half of the anticipated 2026 capital expenditures are expected to be focused on various growth initiatives, with the other half allocated to maintenance investments.
- Between 2022 and 2024, 33% of the company's cash deployment was allocated to capital expenditures, which included capacity investments to insource production and the purchase of a manufacturing facility in University Park, IL in 2022.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 120.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 33.1 |
| Rev LTM | 19,103 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,802 |
| FCF LTM | 1,746 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,030 |
| CFO LTM | 2,475 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,763 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 33.1 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.9 |
| P/EBIT | 19.3 |
| P/E | 23.7 |
| P/CFO | 16.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 25.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 92.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 10.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $106.70 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/01/1982 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $113.48 | $115.59 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -6.0% | -7.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.3% | 35.5% |
| Downside Capture | 115.14 | 103.23 |
| Upside Capture | 41.16 | 87.20 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.5% | 41.5% |
FSS Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.91 | 1.07 | 1.09 | 1.27 | 1.21 | 1.12 |
| Up Beta | 1.73 | 1.50 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 1.43 | 1.26 |
| Down Beta | 2.76 | 2.00 | 1.55 | 1.23 | 1.42 | 0.90 |
| Up Capture | 56% | 56% | 86% | 96% | 124% | 165% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 20 | 32 | 60 | 129 | 394 |
| Down Capture | -157% | 82% | 73% | 130% | 96% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 23 | 32 | 65 | 123 | 355 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FSS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSS | 14.1% | 35.4% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 23.1% | 15.3% | 1.15 | 48.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.3% | 11.8% | 1.94 | 40.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 26.7% | 1.17 | 0.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 39.6% | 18.8% | 1.63 | -11.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.5% | 13.1% | 0.64 | 11.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.8% | 41.6% | -0.81 | 20.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FSS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSS | 21.7% | 30.7% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.7% | 17.4% | 0.57 | 65.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.3% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 54.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.2% | 19.4% | 0.41 | 13.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 41.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.6% | 54.6% | 0.46 | 20.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FSS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSS | 25.1% | 31.6% | 0.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.2% | 20.0% | 0.63 | 64.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 55.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 16.0% | 0.69 | -0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 17.9% | 0.33 | 18.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 44.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.0% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 14.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 5/29/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 5/29/2026