Birkenstock (BIRK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $43.78 | Market Cap: $8.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Footwear
Birkenstock (BIRK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $43.78Market Cap: $8.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Footwear
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BIRK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -16.1% movement in Birkenstock's (BIRK) stock price from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Disappointing Aspects of Q3 2025 Earnings Despite Overall Beat: Although Birkenstock reported Q3 2025 earnings on August 14, 2025, where EPS generally beat estimates and revenue saw year-over-year growth, some reports indicated revenue narrowly missed certain analyst expectations. Critically, investors were reportedly disappointed by lower-than-expected growth in the direct-to-consumer (DTC) business and within the Americas region, leading to an immediate stock drop of 4-5% after the earnings release.
2. Concerns Over U.S. Tariff Regime and Long-Term Growth Strategy: Following the Q3 2025 earnings announcement, investor sentiment was impacted by cynicism regarding the company's long-term growth strategy. There were also concerns about the potential impact of a new U.S. tariff regime on Birkenstock's margins, contributing to the downward pressure on the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BIRK Return | - | - | - | - | 16% | -25% | -13% |
| Peers Return | -7% | 14% | -36% | 6% | 61% | 10% | 27% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BIRK Win Rate | - | - | - | 100% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 25% | 47% | 32% | 42% | 43% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BIRK Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -14% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -3% | -41% | -21% | -15% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WWW, WEYS, FOSL, FWDI, ONON.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
BIRK has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Birkenstock Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BIRK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Birkenstock
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,468 |
| Op Inc LTM | 87 |
| FCF LTM | 43 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 111 |
| CFO LTM | 55 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 124 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -10.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.4 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 15.6 |
| P/E | 25.2 |
| P/CFO | 24.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 19.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 60.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 19.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 6-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 12182024 | 20-F 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8292024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5302024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 6-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 1182024 | 20-F 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9152023 | F-1/A 6/30/2023 |
| 9302022 | 9122023 | F-1 9/30/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |