Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BIRK Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -16.1% movement in Birkenstock's (BIRK) stock price from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Disappointing Aspects of Q3 2025 Earnings Despite Overall Beat: Although Birkenstock reported Q3 2025 earnings on August 14, 2025, where EPS generally beat estimates and revenue saw year-over-year growth, some reports indicated revenue narrowly missed certain analyst expectations. Critically, investors were reportedly disappointed by lower-than-expected growth in the direct-to-consumer (DTC) business and within the Americas region, leading to an immediate stock drop of 4-5% after the earnings release.

2. Concerns Over U.S. Tariff Regime and Long-Term Growth Strategy: Following the Q3 2025 earnings announcement, investor sentiment was impacted by cynicism regarding the company's long-term growth strategy. There were also concerns about the potential impact of a new U.S. tariff regime on Birkenstock's margins, contributing to the downward pressure on the stock.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BIRK Return----16%-25%-13%
Peers Return-7%14%-36%6%61%10%27%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BIRK Win Rate---100%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate25%47%32%42%43%35% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BIRK Max Drawdown-----14%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-3%-41%-21%-15%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WWW, WEYS, FOSL, FWDI, ONON.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

BIRK has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven680 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven105 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven150.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven779 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Birkenstock (BIRK)

Better Bets than Birkenstock (BIRK)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BIRK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Birkenstock

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BIRKWWWWEYSFOSLFWDIONONMedian
NameBirkenst.Wolverin.Weyco Fossil Forward .On  
Mkt Price43.7617.4631.793.758.5147.0724.62
Mkt Cap8.21.40.30.2-30.01.4
Rev LTM2,0271,8522811,084272,7181,468
Op Inc LTM5331413319-529687
FCF LTM2935433-48-234843
FCF 3Y Avg29018044-12-0177111
CFO LTM3737634-43-241655
CFO 3Y Avg38120247-3-0243124

Growth & Margins

BIRKWWWWEYSFOSLFWDIONONMedian
NameBirkenst.Wolverin.Weyco Fossil Forward .On  
Rev Chg LTM17.6%3.6%-6.4%-15.3%5.6%35.7%4.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--10.6%-3.6%-16.2%-13.5%43.6%-10.6%
Rev Chg Q12.4%6.8%-8.9%-15.2%-50.5%32.0%-1.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.6%1.7%-2.0%-3.5%-8.6%7.2%-0.2%
Op Mgn LTM26.3%7.6%11.6%1.7%-19.0%10.9%9.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg23.9%3.4%12.6%-2.0%-6.9%9.6%6.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%0.6%-0.7%3.0%-8.7%1.0%0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM18.4%4.1%12.2%-4.0%-6.8%15.3%8.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg22.5%9.8%15.2%-0.3%-0.7%9.9%9.8%
FCF/Rev LTM14.5%2.9%11.6%-4.4%-6.9%12.8%7.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.9%8.7%14.5%-0.9%-0.9%6.5%7.6%

Valuation

BIRKWWWWEYSFOSLFWDIONONMedian
NameBirkenst.Wolverin.Weyco Fossil Forward .On  
Mkt Cap8.21.40.30.2-30.01.4
P/S4.51.21.10.1-12.21.2
P/EBIT17.815.68.9-1.9-214.215.6
P/E29.925.212.1-1.3-243.825.2
P/CFO24.629.49.1-1.8-79.624.6
Total Yield3.3%5.4%17.5%-74.9%-0.4%3.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.5%9.3%0.0%-0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-20.5%15.6%-6.7%-0.6%8.1%
D/E0.10.40.04.1-0.00.1
Net D/E0.10.3-0.22.7--0.00.1

Returns

BIRKWWWWEYSFOSLFWDIONONMedian
NameBirkenst.Wolverin.Weyco Fossil Forward .On  
1M Rtn11.2%-21.8%19.0%82.0%-29.1%19.0%
3M Rtn-11.9%-44.2%13.2%15.4%-5.1%5.1%
6M Rtn-21.6%5.8%8.3%145.1%--18.9%5.8%
12M Rtn-16.4%-24.7%-2.1%77.7%--20.9%-16.4%
3Y Rtn-71.5%50.0%-18.8%-140.0%60.8%
1M Excs Rtn11.2%-21.8%19.0%82.1%-29.1%19.0%
3M Excs Rtn-18.9%-50.6%2.7%4.3%--3.1%-3.1%
6M Excs Rtn-36.3%-8.9%-6.5%130.4%--33.6%-8.9%
12M Excs Rtn-28.8%-36.7%-15.8%143.3%--32.9%-28.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-1.6%-18.7%-91.1%-81.5%-8.5%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,248,361
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-22.6%
Average Daily Volume1,967,703
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.68
Basic Shares Quantity186,479,342
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202581420256-K 6/30/2025
331202551520256-K 3/31/2025
1231202422020256-K 12/31/2024
93020241218202420-F 9/30/2024
630202482920246-K 6/30/2024
331202453020246-K 3/31/2024
1231202322920246-K 12/31/2023
9302023118202420-F 9/30/2023
63020239152023F-1/A 6/30/2023
93020229122023F-1 9/30/2022