Exelixis (EXEL)
Market Price (5/22/2026): $49.66 | Market Cap: $12.8 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Exelixis (EXEL)
Market Price (5/22/2026): $49.66Market Cap: $12.8 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 7.1% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.6 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2% Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.64, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Key risksEXEL key risks include [1] its heavy financial dependence on the flagship product CABOMETYX amid intense market competition and [2] the critical need for its key pipeline asset, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 7.1% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.64, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Key risksEXEL key risks include [1] its heavy financial dependence on the flagship product CABOMETYX amid intense market competition and [2] the critical need for its key pipeline asset, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong First Quarter 2026 Financial Performance Exceeded Expectations.
Exelixis reported robust financial results for the first quarter of 2026, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.87, significantly beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.75 by 16%. Total revenues for the quarter reached $610.8 million, marking a 10% year-over-year growth and surpassing the consensus estimate of $607.5 million. This strong performance was primarily driven by an 8% year-over-year increase in U.S. cabozantinib franchise net product revenues to $555 million, and a 12.5% increase in global cabozantinib franchise revenues to $764 million, reassuring investors about the company's commercial momentum.
2. Significant Advancement in the Zanzalintinib (ZANZA) Pipeline.
The company made substantial progress with its next-generation oncology franchise, zanzalintinib. The New Drug Application (NDA) for zanzalintinib, targeting previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer, was accepted by U.S. regulatory authorities and is currently under review, with a target action date of December 3, 2026. Furthermore, the ZANZA franchise is rapidly progressing with seven pivotal trials either ongoing or planned, including a collaboration with Natera announced in January 2026 for the STELLAR-316 Phase 3 trial. This pipeline advancement represents a significant near-term catalyst for Exelixis' oncology portfolio.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.0% change in EXEL stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.36 | 49.65 | 20.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,288 | 2,375 | 3.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.6% | 35.1% | 18.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.4 | 15.4 | -6.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 268 | 258 | 3.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXEL | 20.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | 38.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | -3.9% | 31.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.4% change in EXEL stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.67 | 49.65 | 28.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,230 | 2,375 | 6.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.0% | 35.1% | 29.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.5 | 15.4 | -12.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 273 | 258 | 5.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXEL | 28.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 33.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 3.6% | 40.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.8% change in EXEL stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 46.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 39.15 | 49.65 | 26.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,169 | 2,375 | 9.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.0% | 35.1% | 46.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.4 | 15.4 | -28.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 285 | 258 | 10.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXEL | 26.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 35.5% | 25.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 7.3% | 22.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 171.3% change in EXEL stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 210.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.30 | 49.65 | 171.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,611 | 2,375 | 47.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.3% | 35.1% | 210.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.5 | 15.4 | -52.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 323 | 258 | 25.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 171.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXEL | 171.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.6% | 20.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.6% | 23.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EXEL Return | -9% | -12% | 50% | 39% | 32% | 14% | 149% |
| Peers Return | 21% | 20% | -11% | 4% | 15% | 7% | 66% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EXEL Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 55% | 37% | 50% | 53% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EXEL Max Drawdown | -38% | -35% | -15% | -16% | -25% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -17% | -26% | -24% | -23% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BMY, PFE, MRK, AMGN, GILD. See EXEL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EXEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 170 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -68.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 220.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 208 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Exelixis's stock fell -2.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 2.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | EXEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 170 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -68.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 220.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 208 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -32.1% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.2% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 461 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -43.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1754 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 282.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 802 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Exelixis's stock fell -2.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 2.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Exelixis (EXEL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Exelixis is like **Vertex Pharmaceuticals**, but exclusively focused on developing and commercializing medicines for various types of cancer.
Think of Exelixis as the **oncology division of a major pharmaceutical company like Bristol Myers Squibb or Genentech, but operating as its own dedicated public company.**
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- CABOMETYX: Treats advanced renal cell carcinoma.
- COMETRIQ: Treats progressive and metastatic medullary thyroid cancer.
- COTELLIC: Used in combination to treat advanced melanoma.
- MINNEBRO: Treats hypertension in Japan.
- XL092: An oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor in development for various cancers.
- XB002: An antibody-drug conjugate in development for advanced solid tumors and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.
- XL102: A CDK7 inhibitor in development for advanced or metastatic solid tumors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Exelixis (EXEL) sells its products and intellectual property primarily to other companies through various licensing and collaboration agreements, as well as directly selling medicines within the U.S. healthcare supply chain. Based on the provided description, the major customers derived from its research collaborations and license agreements include:
- Ipsen Pharma SAS (Euronext Paris: IPN)
- Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Ltd. (NYSE: TAK)
- F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. (SIX Swiss Exchange: ROG)
- Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY)
- Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited (OTC: DSNKY)
- Genentech, Inc. (a subsidiary of F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.)
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Michael M. Morrissey, Ph.D. President and Chief Executive Officer
Michael M. Morrissey has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Exelixis since July 2010, and as a director since the same year. He joined the company in February 2000 and previously held positions of increasing responsibility, including President of Research and Development from January 2007 to July 2010. Before joining Exelixis, Dr. Morrissey was the Vice President, Discovery Research at Berlex Biosciences from 1991 to 2000. Earlier in his career, he served as a Senior Scientist and Project Team Leader in Medicinal Chemistry at CIBA-Geigy Corporation from 1986 to 1991. Dr. Morrissey is an inventor on 70 issued U.S. patents and 25 published applications. He earned his Ph.D. in Chemistry from Harvard University and a B.S. in Chemistry from the University of Wisconsin. Dr. Morrissey has served as Chair of the board of directors of Vera Therapeutics, Inc., a publicly held, clinical-stage biotechnology company, since April 2022. He also previously served on the boards of XWPharma Ltd. and CERo Therapeutics, Inc.
Christopher J. Senner Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Christopher J. Senner was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Exelixis in July 2015. Prior to Exelixis, Mr. Senner spent five years at Gilead Sciences (2010-2015) as Vice President, Corporate Finance, where he was responsible for controllership, operational financial planning and analysis, tax, and treasury. Before Gilead, he held various financial roles with increasing responsibility over eighteen years at Wyeth, including Chief Financial Officer of Wyeth's U.S. pharmaceuticals business and the BioPharma Business Unit. Wyeth was acquired by Pfizer in 2009. He holds a B.S. in Finance from Bentley College. Since March 2019, Mr. Senner has served as an independent director on the Board of Directors for Quince Therapeutics.
Brenda Hefti, J.D., Ph.D. General Counsel
Brenda Hefti, J.D., Ph.D., was promoted to General Counsel of Exelixis, effective November 7, 2025. She joined Exelixis in 2013 as corporate counsel, became Head of IP in 2014, and served as Senior Vice President, IP & Licensing since 2020.
Dana T. Aftab, Ph.D. Executive Vice President, Research and Development
Dana T. Aftab, Ph.D., was appointed Executive Vice President, Research and Development at Exelixis in August 2025. Prior to this role, Dr. Aftab served as Executive Vice President, Discovery and Translational Research and Chief Scientific Officer at the company.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Exelixis (EXEL) faces several key business risks, primarily stemming from its concentration in a single product franchise and the inherent challenges of drug development and market competition.
- Reliance on Cabozantinib and Upcoming Patent Expiration: Exelixis’ commercial success heavily depends on its flagship molecule, cabozantinib, which is the basis for its key products CABOMETYX and COMETRIQ. The company faces a significant risk from the eventual expiration of patents covering cabozantinib. While legal victories have extended some patent exclusivity until at least January 2030, and a settlement with Cipla allows generic versions of CABOMETYX in the U.S. starting January 1, 2031, the entry of generics could substantially erode revenue and market position. The long-term outlook carries a high degree of uncertainty due to this impending patent loss.
- Clinical Trial Failures and Regulatory Hurdles for Pipeline Products: As an oncology-focused biotechnology company, Exelixis' future growth is contingent on the successful discovery, development, and commercialization of new medicines. Drug development is a lengthy, costly, and high-risk endeavor, with many promising programs failing to yield approved products. Recent clinical trial results demonstrate this risk, such as the failure of a Cabometyx combination therapy to improve overall survival in a kidney cancer trial, leading Exelixis to abandon its pursuit for that specific label expansion. Additionally, pipeline assets like zanzalintinib, while showing some positive data, have also raised safety concerns in late-stage trials, which could impact regulatory approval and market acceptance. The complexities and unpredictability of regulatory review processes in the U.S. and internationally also pose significant risks to its product development efforts.
- Intense Market Competition and Pricing Pressures: The oncology market is highly competitive, with numerous pharmaceutical companies vying for market share. Beyond generic competition for its established products, Exelixis faces continuous pressure from new and existing therapies developed by rivals. Furthermore, the company is exposed to the threat of healthcare reforms and increasing scrutiny of pharmaceutical pricing by governments and regulatory bodies, which could lead to initiatives that reduce revenue or negatively impact its business reputation and profitability.
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Exelixis (EXEL) products address the following markets:
-
CABOMETYX (cabozantinib)
-
Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC): The global advanced renal cell carcinoma market is projected to grow from USD 9.6 billion in 2024 to USD 15.1 billion by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8%. The U.S. market for advanced renal cell carcinoma is valued at approximately USD 3.17 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach nearly USD 4.44 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 5.8%.
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Medullary Thyroid Cancer: The medullary thyroid cancer market across the top 7 markets (US, EU4, UK, and Japan) was valued at USD 155.3 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 433.8 million by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 9.76%. The global medullary thyroid cancer market size was USD 141.1 million in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 405.1 million by 2034, with a CAGR of 10.06%.
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COMETRIQ (cabozantinib)
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Progressive and Metastatic Medullary Thyroid Cancer: The medullary thyroid cancer market across the top 7 markets (US, EU4, UK, and Japan) was valued at USD 155.3 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 433.8 million by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 9.76%. The global medullary thyroid cancer market size was USD 141.1 million in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 405.1 million by 2034, with a CAGR of 10.06%.
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COTELLIC (cobimetinib)
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Advanced Melanoma: The global melanoma therapeutics market size is expected to be valued at USD 7.39 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach approximately USD 17.93 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 10.35%. The advanced melanoma market across the top 7 markets (US, EU4, UK, and Japan) reached a value of USD 4.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 11.0 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 9.01%.
-
MINNEBRO (esaxerenone)
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Hypertension in Japan: The Japan anti-hypertensive drugs market generated revenue of USD 1,447.5 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 2,155.9 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.5% from 2025 to 2033.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) anticipates future revenue growth over the next two to three years will be driven by several key factors:
- Continued Growth of the CABOMETYX Franchise: The company's lead product, CABOMETYX (cabozantinib), is expected to remain a significant revenue driver, building on its strong performance in treating renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and its expanded label for neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). CABOMETYX is the market leader for neuroendocrine tumors in the oral second-line plus segment, with sales anticipated to accelerate in 2026 following its March 2025 FDA approval for pancreatic and extra-pancreatic NETs. The company also implemented a 3% price increase for cabozantinib products effective January 2026, building on a 2.2% increase in January 2024. Peak U.S. sales for cabozantinib are projected to approach $3 billion by 2030.
- Launch and Commercialization of Zanzalintinib: Exelixis' next-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor, zanzalintinib, is positioned as a foundational element for future oncology franchises, with potential peak annual sales of $5 billion. The company has received positive pivotal data for zanzalintinib and is preparing for a potential FDA approval in metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) with a PDUFA date in December. Exelixis is expanding its commercial organization and sales force to support the anticipated launches in CRC and NETs. The company's 2026 revenue guidance currently excludes any contribution from a potential zanzalintinib approval, suggesting a significant upside.
- Expansion into New Indications for CABOMETYX: Beyond its current approvals, Exelixis continues to pursue data-driven label expansions for CABOMETYX across various tumor types. The recent approval in NETs is significantly boosting sales, and the company is engaged in discussions with regulatory agencies for additional potential indications, which could further broaden its market reach.
- Advancement of Pipeline Assets: Exelixis is committed to advancing a diverse pipeline of small molecules and biotherapeutics, with the goal of bringing new treatment options to cancer patients. This includes moving promising preclinical programs into clinical development. The pipeline features antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) like XB002 and XB371, as well as small molecules such as XL309 (a USP1 inhibitor) and XL495, which are being progressed into clinical trials. These earlier-stage assets represent longer-term growth opportunities that could contribute to revenue in the later part of the next 2-3 year timeframe and beyond.
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Share Repurchases
- Since March 2023, Exelixis has repurchased a total of $2.16 billion of its common stock, retiring 76.7 million shares at an average price of $28.14 per share, as of the end of fiscal year 2025.
- In October 2025, the Board of Directors authorized an additional $750 million share repurchase program, which is set to continue through December 31, 2026.
- Exelixis completed a $500 million stock repurchase program in the second quarter of 2025 (authorized in August 2024) and another $500 million program in the fourth quarter of 2025 (authorized in February 2025).
Outbound Investments
- In May 2021, Exelixis acquired all rights to GamaMabs Pharma's AMHR2 antibody technology, with an initial payment of $5 million upon signing and additional milestone payments contingent on various events.
Capital Expenditures
- Exelixis' trailing twelve months (TTM) capital expenditure averaged $36.2 million as of December 31, 2025, with a 5-year average ranging from a minimum of $17.82 million to a maximum of $37.29 million.
- For fiscal year 2026, the company expects R&D expenses to be between $875 million and $925 million.
- The primary focus of these expenditures and investments is on funding late-stage clinical trials, early-stage drug discovery, and advancing a diverse pipeline of small molecules and biotherapeutics to build next-generation oncology franchises, including the development of zanzalintinib.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to EXEL.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEHC | GE HealthCare Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | UHS | Universal Health Services | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12262025 | EXEL | Exelixis | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -3.8% | -3.8% | -11.9% |
| 02292024 | EXEL | Exelixis | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 18.8% | 76.7% | -7.1% |
| 12312022 | EXEL | Exelixis | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.1% | 49.6% | 0.0% |
| 05312022 | EXEL | Exelixis | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | 5.2% | -18.4% |
| 08312019 | EXEL | Exelixis | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.3% | 9.0% | -27.2% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 87.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 154.9 |
| Rev LTM | 42,852 |
| Op Inc LTM | 12,436 |
| FCF LTM | 9,856 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,097 |
| CFO LTM | 11,395 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 10,932 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 13.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 45.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 28.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 154.9 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.5 |
| P/EBIT | 13.9 |
| P/E | 18.7 |
| P/CFO | 14.4 |
| Total Yield | 7.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 26.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 38.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $49.65 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 13.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/17/2000 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $44.98 | $42.19 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 10.4% | 17.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 38.7% | 39.4% |
| Downside Capture | 98.80 | 138.36 |
| Upside Capture | 111.13 | 111.96 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 36.4% | 27.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.44 |
| Up Beta | 0.66 | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| Down Beta | -13.45 | 0.11 | -0.11 | -0.33 | -0.23 | 0.24 |
| Up Capture | 59% | 53% | 89% | 118% | 120% | 40% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 24 | 33 | 63 | 121 | 390 |
| Down Capture | 157% | 65% | 83% | 96% | 125% | 71% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 30 | 61 | 129 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EXEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXEL | 12.3% | 39.3% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.0% | 14.7% | 0.55 | 31.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.8% | 12.1% | 1.67 | 26.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 26.8% | 1.16 | -0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.5% | 18.6% | 1.80 | -25.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.0% | 13.4% | 0.59 | 14.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.2% | 41.8% | -0.65 | 9.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EXEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXEL | 14.3% | 37.1% | 0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.4% | 14.6% | 0.19 | 28.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.0% | 0.64 | 28.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.3% | 18.0% | 0.87 | 1.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.4% | 0.44 | 0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 25.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.3% | 55.6% | 0.37 | 10.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EXEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXEL | 25.4% | 44.7% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.8% | 16.5% | 0.48 | 37.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 33.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.2% | 16.0% | 0.68 | 0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 17.9% | 0.35 | 8.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 23.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.3% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 7.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 9.6% | 11.3% | |
| 2/10/2026 | -0.1% | 3.5% | -4.2% |
| 11/4/2025 | 6.5% | 13.4% | 17.0% |
| 7/28/2025 | -16.8% | -17.1% | -13.6% |
| 5/13/2025 | 20.8% | 20.1% | 13.1% |
| 1/13/2025 | 1.0% | 3.2% | -7.1% |
| 10/29/2024 | 12.9% | 21.0% | 25.1% |
| 8/6/2024 | 13.1% | 13.9% | 9.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 7.9% | 11.1% |
| Median Negative | -6.5% | -5.6% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 20.8% | 21.0% | 25.1% |
| Max Negative | -16.8% | -17.1% | -24.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total revenues | 2.52 Bil | 2.58 Bil | 2.62 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.58 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net product revenues | 2.33 Bil | 2.38 Bil | 2.42 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.38 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Cost of goods sold, % of net product revenues | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.04 for 2026 |
| 2026 Research and development expenses | 875.00 Mil | 900.00 Mil | 925.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 900.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Selling, general and administrative expenses | 575.00 Mil | 600.00 Mil | 625.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 600.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Effective tax rate | 21.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 22.0% for 2026 |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total revenues | 2.52 Bil | 2.58 Bil | 2.62 Bil | 10.8% | Raised | Guidance: 2.33 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net product revenues | 2.33 Bil | 2.38 Bil | 2.42 Bil | 11.8% | Raised | Guidance: 2.12 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Cost of goods sold, % of net product revenues | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.04 for 2025 |
| 2026 Research and development expenses | 875.00 Mil | 900.00 Mil | 925.00 Mil | 2.9% | Raised | Guidance: 875.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Selling, general and administrative expenses | 575.00 Mil | 600.00 Mil | 625.00 Mil | 17.1% | Raised | Guidance: 512.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Effective tax rate | 21.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 25.7% | 4.5% | Raised | Guidance: 17.5% for 2025 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Senner, Christopher J | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 50.00 | 34,901 | 1,745,050 | 47,615,850 | Form |
| 2 | Hefti, Brenda | SVP and General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 50.21 | 6,625 | 332,641 | 5,360,520 | Form |
| 3 | Beckerle, Mary C | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 48.45 | 7,712 | 373,646 | 849,038 | Form | |
| 4 | Freire, Maria C | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 46.00 | 20,634 | 949,164 | 4,637,674 | Form | |
| 5 | Poste, George | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 45.71 | 60,000 | 2,742,600 | 5,431,811 | Form |
EXEL Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The score is a 5 (Market Weight) due to a perfectly balanced but high-stakes risk/reward profile. The company operates in a strong sector and has a clear, powerful upside catalyst in zanzalintinib. However, this is offset by a decelerating core business, formidable competition, and a speculative valuation that is entirely dependent on the binary outcome of the FDA's decision. The thesis lacks a margin of safety, making it a hold pending the catalyst.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Binary InnovatorWhile Exelixis has a profitable, established drug in Cabozantinib, the overwhelming 'Gravity' of the investment thesis rests on the binary FDA approval decision for its next major pipeline asset, zanzalintinib. This catalyst will dramatically alter the company's long-term growth trajectory and valuation, making the 'Binary Innovator' (Type D) archetype the primary lens for analysis.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is the successful FDA approval of zanzalintinib for metastatic colorectal cancer (PDUFA date: Dec 3, 2026), followed by a successful commercial launch. This would establish a second major oncology franchise, diversifying revenue away from the maturing cabozantinib, de-risking the patent cliff, and re-accelerating top-line growth.
- The FDA has accepted the New Drug Application for zanzalintinib, indicating a viable path to potential approval.
- The company has a strong track record of commercial execution with Cabometyx, which is the #1 prescribed TKI for Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) with 46% market share.
- Management has provided FY26 guidance of $2.525B - $2.625B, which likely includes early contributions or is predicated on the continued strength of the base business ahead of a new launch.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is a negative outcome from the FDA for zanzalintinib. This could be an outright rejection (Complete Response Letter) or an approval with a restrictive label (e.g., black box warning, limited patient population) due to safety concerns, specifically the high incidence of severe side effects observed in trial data. Such an outcome would invalidate the 'second franchise' thesis.
- The stock experienced a significant price drop on October 20, 2025, after trial data revealed a high incidence of severe side effects, indicating high market sensitivity to the drug's safety profile.
- The company is highly concentrated, with the vast majority of its $2.32B in 2025 revenue coming from the cabozantinib franchise.
- The growth of the core Cabozantinib franchise is already decelerating, with Q4 2025 YoY revenue growth of 6% compared to 17% for the full year.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Cabozantinib Franchise Net Product Revenues (Quarterly) | Sequential growth >1%; YoY growth >5% | Monitors the health of the core revenue engine. Any significant drop below these thresholds before zanzalintinib launches would signal an acceleration of the core business's decay, increasing pressure on the pipeline. |
| Zanzalintinib FDA-related Newsflow | Any updates on label negotiations, advisory committee meetings, or safety profile discussions. | This is the primary catalyst. Any news, positive or negative, will be a leading indicator of the final December 2026 decision and cause significant stock volatility. |
| Operating Margin Trend | Stable above 35% | The company's high profitability funds its R&D. A material compression in margins could indicate rising competitive pressure or inefficient spending, threatening the self-funding model for the pipeline. |
Pipeline Catalyst vs. Core Business Decay
BULL VIEW
Zanzalintinib approval will create a second major oncology franchise, re-accelerating growth and rendering the temporary slowdown in the core business irrelevant.
CORE TENSION
The ultimate driver of the stock is the binary FDA decision on zanzalintinib, while the foundational Cabozantinib business is showing clear signs of growth deceleration.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The sharp deceleration in Cabozantinib franchise YoY revenue growth to 6% in Q4 2025, down from 17% for the full year, validates the bear concern about the core business.
BEAR VIEW
An FDA rejection for zanzalintinib will expose the decelerating core business, leading to a structural de-rating of the stock to a single-product value trap.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Early May 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Watch: Cabometyx U.S. net product revenue YoY growth rate. Threshold: >5%. |
Mid-2026 | Zanzalintinib STELLAR-304 Data Readout Watch: Topline results for Progression-Free Survival (PFS) or Objective Response Rate (ORR). |
May 29 - June 2, 2026 | ASCO 2026 Annual Meeting Watch: Competitor data in Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) showing superior survival benefit to Cabometyx. |
Ongoing | Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Updates Watch: CMS announcements regarding drugs selected for future price negotiation. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Sep 17, 2025 | FDA Accepts New Drug Application (NDA) for Zanzalintinib Details: Positive regulatory milestone as the FDA formally accepted the application for zanzalintinib, setting a PDUFA action date for December 3, 2026. | Rose significantly by 3.3% $39.14 -> $40.44 |
Oct 20, 2025 | Zanzalintinib Trial Data Reveals Safety Concerns Details: Stock crashed after trial data for key pipeline asset zanzalintinib showed a high incidence of severe side effects, introducing significant risk to its approval prospects. | Plummeted -12.0% $39.25 -> $34.54 |
Nov 4, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Exelixis reported Q3 earnings that beat expectations and raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance, signaling confidence in the Cabometyx franchise at the time. | Surged +6.5% $37.90 -> $40.37 |
Dec 10, 2025 | Exelixis R&D Day Details: Company hosted an event to detail its pipeline and research strategy. The modest stock dip suggests investors were not significantly moved by the long-term pipeline update. | Slight -1.9% pullback $41.87 -> $41.07 |
Jan 12, 2026 | J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Presentation Details: Company provided 2026 financial guidance and outlined key priorities, including the zanzalintinib approval path. The market reaction was muted. | Flat (0.0%) $44.04 -> $44.06 |
Feb 10, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings and FY2026 Guidance Details: Reported Q4 revenue of $598.7M which missed analyst estimates. Core Cabometyx growth decelerated to 6% YoY, a key concern despite a large EPS beat. Stock changed little. | Muted (-0.1%) $42.98 -> $42.94 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.4x S&P). The Bearish sentiment, driven by a decelerating core business and a high-stakes binary catalyst, mandates a conservative sizing to manage the significant drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
VRTX
SECTORVRTX has a dominant, near-monopoly franchise in Cystic Fibrosis, providing a much wider and more durable moat than EXEL's position in the highly competitive oncology market.
REGN
SECTORRegeneron has a highly diversified portfolio of blockbuster drugs (Eylea, Dupixent), mitigating the single-product concentration risk that defines the Exelixis thesis.
Exelixis is transitioning from a company dependent on a single drug, Cabometyx, to a multi-franchise oncology business, with its valuation hinging on the successful clinical development and launch of its pipeline assets, primarily zanzalintinib.
Filter all news through the lens of pipeline execution and diversification beyond the cabozantinib franchise.
Positive pivotal trial data for zanzalintinib (especially STELLAR-303 in colorectal cancer); FDA approval of zanzalintinib with a broad label; Cabometyx revenue growth exceeding guidance, particularly in newer indications like neuroendocrine tumors (NET).
Clinical trial failures or delays for key pipeline assets (zanzalintinib, XL102); faster-than-expected erosion of Cabometyx market share; unfavorable patent litigation outcomes that accelerate generic entry before 2030.
Quarterly fluctuations in R&D spend, which are expected given the stage of pipeline development; minor patent challenges that don't affect the core compound or formulation patents; early-stage preclinical announcements without human data.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the potential U.S. regulatory approval and commercial launch of zanzalintinib for colorectal cancer in 2026. The FDA accepted the New Drug Application (NDA) with a PDUFA date in December 2025. Success here would validate the company's R&D engine and provide a second major revenue stream, diversifying away from Cabometyx.
Cabozantinib Franchise (U.S. Product Sales)
$2.1B TTM (91% of Total) · 95% MarginWhat It Is
CABOMETYX (cabozantinib) and COMETRIQ (cabozantinib) tablets.
Who Pays & How
Major U.S. drug wholesalers (such as McKesson, AmerisourceBergen, and Cardinal Health) pay for the product to supply hospitals and pharmacies. Oncologists prescribe it for its proven clinical efficacy in treating cancers like renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and neuroendocrine tumors (NET).
Competition
Collaboration & Royalties (Ex-U.S.)
$0.2B TTM (9% of Total) · 100% MarginWhat It Is
Royalties and milestone payments from cabozantinib sales outside the U.S.
Who Pays & How
Pharmaceutical partners Ipsen (for ex-U.S./Japan) and Takeda (for Japan) pay royalties and milestones to Exelixis for the rights to commercialize cabozantinib in their respective territories.
Competition
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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