Brinker International (EAT)
Market Price (6/21/2026): $164.89 | Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Brinker International (EAT)
Market Price (6/21/2026): $164.89Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 7.1% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), and Supply Chain Digitization. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Key risksEAT key risks include the vulnerability of its traditional sit-down restaurant model to [1] intense competition from fast-casual concepts and [2] shifting consumer preferences toward digital ordering and delivery. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 7.1% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), and Supply Chain Digitization. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Key risksEAT key risks include the vulnerability of its traditional sit-down restaurant model to [1] intense competition from fast-casual concepts and [2] shifting consumer preferences toward digital ordering and delivery. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Brinker International (EAT) stock has gained about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Revenue Growth.
Brinker International (EAT) reported its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on April 29, 2026, for the quarter ending March 25, 2026. The company announced an adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.90, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $2.85 to $2.86 by 1.40% to 1.75%. Revenue for the quarter also increased by 3.2% year-over-year to $1.47 billion, matching expectations. This positive earnings surprise and solid revenue performance contributed to investor confidence, leading to a 13.83% surge in the stock's pre-market trading on April 29, 2026.
2. Sustained Same-Store Sales Momentum at Chili's.
Chili's Grill & Bar, Brinker's flagship brand, delivered its 20th consecutive quarter of same-store sales growth, with a 4% increase in fiscal Q3 2026. This performance significantly outpaced the casual dining industry by 420 basis points. The strong growth was particularly evident in February and March 2026, with comparable restaurant sales increasing by 5.9% and demonstrating positive traffic, despite some negative impact from adverse weather in January. Strategic initiatives like menu innovation and the "3 for Me" value platform were cited as key drivers for attracting and retaining customers.
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Brinker International (EAT) stock has gained about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Revenue Growth.
Brinker International (EAT) reported its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on April 29, 2026, for the quarter ending March 25, 2026. The company announced an adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.90, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $2.85 to $2.86 by 1.40% to 1.75%. Revenue for the quarter also increased by 3.2% year-over-year to $1.47 billion, matching expectations. This positive earnings surprise and solid revenue performance contributed to investor confidence, leading to a 13.83% surge in the stock's pre-market trading on April 29, 2026.
2. Sustained Same-Store Sales Momentum at Chili's.
Chili's Grill & Bar, Brinker's flagship brand, delivered its 20th consecutive quarter of same-store sales growth, with a 4% increase in fiscal Q3 2026. This performance significantly outpaced the casual dining industry by 420 basis points. The strong growth was particularly evident in February and March 2026, with comparable restaurant sales increasing by 5.9% and demonstrating positive traffic, despite some negative impact from adverse weather in January. Strategic initiatives like menu innovation and the "3 for Me" value platform were cited as key drivers for attracting and retaining customers.
3. Upward Revision of Fiscal 2026 Guidance.
Following the better-than-expected fiscal Q3 2026 results, Brinker International updated its financial outlook for fiscal year 2026. The company raised its guidance, projecting annual revenues between $5.78 billion and $5.82 billion and adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $10.60 to $10.85. This upward adjustment, which included moving the EPS floor higher, signaled increased management confidence in the company's sustained performance and improved visibility for the remainder of the fiscal year, positively impacting investor sentiment.
4. Favorable Analyst Ratings and Price Targets.
During the period, Brinker International continued to receive positive endorsements from Wall Street analysts. As of June 11, 2026, 21 analysts issued ratings for the stock, resulting in a consensus of "Moderate Buy," with 14 analysts giving a "Buy" rating. The average 12-month price target was $185.11, representing a forecasted upside of 16.90% from the then-current price of $158.35. This strong analyst confidence and projected upside likely contributed to the stock's appreciation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.3% change in EAT stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 148.20 | 164.89 | 11.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,688 | 5,734 | 0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.0% | 8.1% | 1.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.4 | 15.4 | 7.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 44 | 43 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EAT | 11.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 30.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.5% | 34.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.2% change in EAT stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 3.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 153.79 | 164.89 | 7.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,594 | 5,734 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.9% | 8.1% | 1.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.5 | 15.4 | -0.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 45 | 43 | 3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EAT | 7.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 27.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.5% | 28.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.5% change in EAT stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -33.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 172.63 | 164.89 | -4.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,130 | 5,734 | 11.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.5% | 8.1% | 24.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.0 | 15.4 | -33.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 44 | 43 | 2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EAT | -4.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 24.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.5% | 26.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 350.8% change in EAT stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 271.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.58 | 164.89 | 350.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,079 | 5,734 | 40.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 8.1% | 271.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.2 | 15.4 | -15.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 44 | 43 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 350.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EAT | 350.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 36.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 58.4% | 39.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EAT Return | -35% | -13% | 35% | 206% | 8% | 11% | 181% |
| Peers Return | 18% | -6% | 20% | 3% | -6% | 20% | 55% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EAT Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 58% | 83% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 38% | 52% | 50% | 48% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EAT Max Drawdown | -57% | -49% | -30% | -21% | -46% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -30% | -28% | -30% | -34% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DRI, BLMN, TXRH, CAKE, DIN. See EAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 171 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -80.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 421.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -25.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 352 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Brinker International's stock fell -20.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.4% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | EAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -80.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 421.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -25.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 352 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 103 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.8% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 375.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 139 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Brinker International's stock fell -20.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 25.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Brinker International (EAT)
Brinker International (NYSE: EAT) is a prominent hospitality company focused on the casual dining restaurant sector. The company primarily engages in the ownership, development, operation, and franchising of its restaurant brands. Its business model encompasses managing both company-owned establishments and expanding its presence through franchise agreements, predominantly within the United States but also in international markets.
The core of Brinker International's offerings centers around two distinct restaurant chains: Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy. Chili's is its flagship brand, providing a casual dining experience with a menu featuring American and Tex-Mex cuisine. Maggiano's Little Italy, while smaller in scale, offers an upscale-casual Italian-American dining experience. As of June 2021, the company managed a portfolio of 1,648 restaurants, with Chili's accounting for the vast majority at 1,594 locations, and Maggiano's making up the remaining 54 establishments.
Brinker International's primary customers are individuals and families seeking diverse casual dining options. Chili's serves a broad demographic looking for approachable meals in a relaxed setting, while Maggiano's appeals to those desiring a more elevated Italian meal, often for group events or special occasions. The company's market extends across a wide geographical footprint, operating extensively throughout the United States and in various international regions to cater to a global appetite for its distinct restaurant concepts.
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- Think of it as the Darden Restaurants (DRI) of Chili's and Maggiano's.
- The company behind Chili's and Maggiano's, much like Dine Brands Global (DIN) is behind Applebee's and IHOP.
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The major products/services of Brinker International (EAT) are:
- Chili's Casual Dining: Offers a diverse menu of American casual dining food and beverages in a relaxed restaurant setting.
- Maggiano's Italian Dining: Provides an upscale casual dining experience featuring classic Italian-American cuisine and family-style service.
- Restaurant Franchising: Licenses its Chili's and Maggiano's restaurant concepts to franchisees, allowing independent operators to develop and run their own branded locations.
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Brinker International (EAT) operates casual dining restaurants such as Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy. As such, the company primarily sells its products and services directly to individual consumers rather than to other businesses.
The major customer categories that Brinker International serves include:
- Families and Social Groups: Customers dining together for leisure, celebrations, or regular meals, often seeking a comfortable atmosphere with varied menu options that appeal to different tastes and age groups. Both Chili's and Maggiano's cater well to this segment, with Maggiano's particularly known for its family-style dining options.
- Individuals and Small Parties seeking Casual Dining Experiences: This category includes solo diners, couples, or small groups of friends and colleagues looking for a relaxed meal, whether for lunch during a workday or dinner in the evening. They seek convenience, a welcoming ambiance, and a diverse menu.
- Diners Seeking Specific Cuisines and Ambiance: Customers who specifically choose Brinker International's brands based on the type of food they are craving. This includes those looking for American, Tex-Mex, or Southwestern-inspired dishes offered by Chili's, or classic Italian-American cuisine and an upscale-casual atmosphere provided by Maggiano's.
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Kevin Hochman Chief Executive Officer and President
Kevin Hochman joined Brinker International in 2022. Prior to this, he spent from 2014 to 2022 in multiple leadership positions at Yum! Brands, where he served as U.S. KFC President for more than five years and concurrently as Pizza Hut Brand President from 2020 to 2022. During his tenure at KFC, he led a brand turnaround that resulted in eight consecutive years of same-store sales growth. Before his career in the restaurant industry, Mr. Hochman worked for 18 years at Procter & Gamble, holding various finance, brand management, and marketing roles, including North America Cosmetics Business Leader. He has been recognized on Nation's Restaurant News Power List and as Forbes' No. 2 most influential CMO in the world for his leadership in resurrecting the KFC brand.
Mika Ware Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mika Ware began her career with Brinker International in 1988 as a Chili's host, earning her finance degree while working at the company. She has held roles of increasing responsibility within Brinker's finance and investor relations departments. Ms. Ware was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective June 27, 2024, following almost 35 years of service at Brinker International.
Aaron White Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief People Officer
Aaron White serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief People Officer for Brinker International. Further details about his background are not available in the provided information.
George Felix Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
George Felix holds the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer for Brinker International, leading marketing efforts for the Chili's and Maggiano's brands. Information regarding his prior experience is limited in the provided context.
Chris Caldwell Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer
Chris Caldwell joined Brinker International as Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer, effective February 26, 2024. Prior to joining Brinker, he spent 27 years leading technology teams at Yum! Brands. His most recent role there was Chief Technology Officer at KFC for a decade, where he was instrumental in developing a strong technology team and robust tech platforms.
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The key risks to Brinker International (EAT) include:
- Consumer Spending Sensitivity and Competition: The casual dining sector, in which Brinker International primarily operates, is highly susceptible to shifts in consumer spending habits, economic downturns, and persistent inflation. Reduced discretionary income among consumers can lead to decreased traffic and sales at its restaurants. Furthermore, the company faces significant competition from other casual dining establishments and off-premise rivals, which can divert traffic away from Brinker's dine-in focused brands like Chili's and Maggiano's. Intense low-price promotions from quick-service restaurant competitors could also negatively impact traffic gains.
- Labor and Food Cost Inflation: Brinker International is significantly exposed to rising labor and food costs, which can tighten operating margins. This includes increased minimum wages, competitive labor markets making it challenging to hire and retain high-quality restaurant management and team members, and commodity inflation affecting food and beverage expenses. While some cost increases may be mitigated by pricing adjustments, sustained inflation can pressure profitability.
- Maggiano's Performance and Turnaround Challenges: While Chili's has shown strong performance, the Maggiano's Little Italy brand has experienced "softness" and "declining traffic" in recent periods. The company has acknowledged challenges at Maggiano's, including issues related to past menu changes and operational adjustments that negatively impacted guest experience and sales. Although efforts are underway to stabilize and improve Maggiano's performance, successfully executing this turnaround in a competitive market remains a key risk.
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Ghost kitchens and virtual restaurant brands. These operational models focus solely on delivery and takeout services, eliminating the need for traditional dine-in facilities. This allows for significantly lower overhead costs, greater menu flexibility, and rapid market expansion, directly competing with Brinker International's established off-premise sales for both its Chili's and Maggiano's brands. The rise of these agile competitors threatens to erode market share by offering specialized or more cost-effective options that cater to the increasing consumer demand for convenient, at-home dining experiences without the full-service restaurant overhead.
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The addressable markets for Brinker International's main products and services, primarily casual dining restaurants, are significant both globally and within the United States.
Global Market
The global casual dining market was valued at approximately USD 230 billion in 2025 and is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.0%, reaching USD 380 billion by 2033. Another estimate indicates the global casual dining market size was USD 333.02 billion in 2025, with an expectation to reach USD 575.5 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 5.5% from 2025 to 2035.
United States Market
North America contributes 28% to the global casual dining market share. Based on a global valuation of USD 333.02 billion in 2025, the estimated addressable market for casual dining in the U.S. would be approximately USD 93.24 billion in 2025.
More broadly, the U.S. full-service restaurant market, which encompasses casual dining, is predicted to be valued at US$ 371.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach US$ 715.8 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 12.7%.
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Brinker International (NYSE: EAT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through a combination of brand-specific strategies, operational enhancements, and targeted expansion.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- Sustained Chili's Comparable Sales Growth through Marketing and Operational Improvements: Chili's Grill & Bar is a primary driver of Brinker's revenue growth, with strong comparable sales attributed to increased traffic, effective marketing campaigns, and operational improvements. The company's strategic initiatives, including successful marketing and investments in operations, have positioned Chili's as a leader in the casual dining sector and are expected to continue driving guest traffic and sales. For example, Chili's reported a 31.4% increase in comparable sales in Q2 2024, driven by positive traffic and pricing strategies.
- Maggiano's Little Italy Turnaround Strategy: Brinker International is actively implementing a "Back to Maggiano's" strategy for its Maggiano's Little Italy brand, mirroring the successful turnaround playbook used for Chili's. This strategy focuses on simplifying operations, upgrading food quality, enhancing service, and emphasizing core menu items to revitalize the brand and drive traffic growth. This initiative aims to improve Maggiano's comparable sales and reconnect with loyal guests while attracting new diners.
- Investment in Digital Capabilities and Guest Engagement: The company plans to continue investing in digital capabilities and new ordering and guest engagement platforms. These investments are aimed at enhancing the overall guest experience, streamlining operations, and driving further revenue growth through improved customer interaction and ordering efficiency.
- Targeted International Expansion of Chili's Franchising: International expansion, particularly for the Chili's brand through franchising, is identified as a significant focus for future growth. These efforts involve agreements for development, initial franchise fees, and royalty fees, contributing to overall revenue expansion.
- Strategic New Restaurant Openings: While focusing on existing restaurant performance, Brinker International also plans for targeted new restaurant openings. For instance, Chili's completed and opened five new restaurants in Q2 FY24, which have shown promising starts. Analysts' forecasts for future revenue growth also incorporate the targeted opening of new restaurants in the medium term.
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Share Repurchases
- Annual share repurchases increased significantly from $5 million in fiscal year 2023 to $90.2 million in fiscal year 2025.
- Approximately $235 million in shares were repurchased in the first two quarters of fiscal year 2026, with $100 million occurring in the second quarter alone.
- The Board of Directors authorized an additional $350 million in share repurchases, contributing to a total share repurchase authorization of approximately $3.9 billion.
Share Issuance
- Weighted average shares were expected to be in the range of 45-47 million for fiscal year 2025 and 45-46 million for fiscal year 2024.
- The number of shares outstanding at the end of 2025 was 44 million, reflecting a slight increase of 0.88% from 2024 to 2025.
- There is no readily available information on significant dollar amounts of new share issuances for capital-raising purposes during the period.
Outbound Investments
- No information is available on strategic investments made by Brinker International in other companies.
- The company focuses on expansion through the development of its Chili's and Maggiano's restaurant brands, including through franchising.
- For fiscal years 2024-2025, Brinker International planned to open 22-29 restaurants.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures have shown a consistent increase over the last five fiscal years, rising from $94 million in 2021 to $265.3 million in 2025.
- For fiscal year 2026, capital expenditures are expected to be in the range of $250-260 million, supporting business growth and upgrading existing restaurants.
- Key areas of capital expenditure include accelerated investments in kitchen equipment, capital maintenance, technology improvements, and annual remodels of approximately 10% of the restaurant fleet.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 121.04 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| Rev LTM | 4,850 |
| Op Inc LTM | 379 |
| FCF LTM | 263 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 227 |
| CFO LTM | 535 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 442 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.8 |
| P/EBIT | 17.3 |
| P/E | 24.0 |
| P/CFO | 10.3 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chili's | 4,883 | 3,919 | 3,646 | 3,380 | 3,060 |
| Maggiano's | 501 | 496 | 487 | 424 | 278 |
| Corporate | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 5,384 | 4,415 | 4,133 | 3,804 | 3,338 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chili's | 644 | 329 | 222 | 241 | 312 |
| Maggiano's | 60 | 58 | 54 | 41 | 6 |
| Corporate | -192 | -157 | -132 | -122 | |
| Other | -119 | ||||
| Total | 512 | 230 | 144 | 160 | 199 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chili's | 2,154 | 2,158 | 2,080 | 2,117 | 1,912 |
| Corporate | 268 | 176 | 163 | 144 | |
| Maggiano's | 256 | 259 | 244 | 224 | 223 |
| Other | 140 | ||||
| Total | 2,679 | 2,593 | 2,487 | 2,484 | 2,275 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $164.89 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/28/1989 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $145.01 | $142.89 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 13.7% | 15.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 61.3% | 47.3% |
| Downside Capture | 81.28 | 76.84 |
| Upside Capture | 89.59 | 46.02 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.4% | 23.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.15 | 2.05 | 1.56 | 1.28 | 1.04 | 1.14 |
| Up Beta | 1.62 | 2.08 | 2.23 | 1.81 | 2.05 | 1.36 |
| Down Beta | -0.68 | 5.43 | 3.48 | 1.69 | 0.89 | 1.18 |
| Up Capture | 116% | 75% | 48% | 67% | 37% | 145% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 34 | 65 | 123 | 394 |
| Down Capture | 532% | 318% | 105% | 116% | 101% | 94% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 29 | 59 | 126 | 355 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAT | -3.4% | 47.0% | 0.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.3% | 18.4% | 0.49 | 26.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 23.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -20.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 11.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.5% | -1.08 | 9.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAT | 23.2% | 49.0% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.1% | 23.8% | 0.26 | 49.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 44.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 3.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 34.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 21.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAT | 15.5% | 55.1% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.6% | 22.1% | 0.52 | 50.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 46.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 15.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 42.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 16.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | 14.4% | 12.2% | 8.4% |
| 1/28/2026 | -0.4% | 3.9% | -3.6% |
| 10/29/2025 | -7.5% | -15.8% | 22.1% |
| 8/13/2025 | 1.6% | -0.7% | 2.6% |
| 4/29/2025 | -14.8% | -19.9% | 2.7% |
| 1/29/2025 | 16.3% | 21.6% | 0.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | 7.5% | 13.2% | 34.7% |
| 8/14/2024 | -10.7% | -5.3% | -1.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.4% | -9.7% | -11.0% |
| Max Positive | 16.3% | 25.1% | 47.2% |
| Max Negative | -14.8% | -19.9% | -25.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | 14.4% | 12.2% | 8.4% |
| 1/28/2026 | -0.4% | 3.9% | -3.6% |
| 10/29/2025 | -7.5% | -15.8% | 22.1% |
| 8/13/2025 | 1.6% | -0.7% | 2.6% |
| 4/29/2025 | -14.8% | -19.9% | 2.7% |
| 1/29/2025 | 16.3% | 21.6% | 0.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | 7.5% | 13.2% | 34.7% |
| 8/14/2024 | -10.7% | -5.3% | -1.6% |
| 4/30/2024 | 7.9% | 15.8% | 38.0% |
| 1/31/2024 | 5.2% | 9.5% | 13.9% |
| 11/1/2023 | 1.7% | 0.8% | 6.2% |
| 8/16/2023 | -5.5% | -6.6% | -11.0% |
| 11/2/2022 | -7.3% | -11.0% | 2.1% |
| 8/24/2022 | -4.9% | -15.8% | -11.4% |
| 5/4/2022 | -12.2% | -15.5% | -21.4% |
| 2/2/2022 | 8.4% | 17.0% | 11.6% |
| 11/3/2021 | -0.8% | 6.7% | -14.5% |
| 8/18/2021 | 1.3% | 6.2% | -2.2% |
| 4/28/2021 | 3.3% | 0.0% | -4.7% |
| 1/27/2021 | -11.7% | -2.4% | 9.4% |
| 10/28/2020 | -2.9% | 7.2% | 21.0% |
| 8/12/2020 | 14.5% | 25.1% | 47.2% |
| 6/9/2020 | -0.1% | -8.4% | -25.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.4% | -9.7% | -11.0% |
| Max Positive | 16.3% | 25.1% | 47.2% |
| Max Negative | -14.8% | -19.9% | -25.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/15/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/26/2022 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/15/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/26/2022 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/24/2020 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/30/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/22/2019 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total revenues | 5.78 Bil | 5.80 Bil | 5.82 Bil | 0.1% | Raised | Guidance: 5.79 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net income per diluted share, excluding special items, non-GAAP | 10.6 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 10.7 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 240.00 Mil | 245.00 Mil | 250.00 Mil | -3.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 255.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted weighted average shares | 44.70 Mil | 44.85 Mil | 45.00 Mil | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 44.95 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total revenues | 5.76 Bil | 5.79 Bil | 5.83 Bil | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 5.65 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net income per diluted share, excluding special items, non-GAAP | 10.4 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 4.4% | Raised | Guidance: 10.2 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 250.00 Mil | 255.00 Mil | 260.00 Mil | -8.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 280.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Weighted average shares | 44.70 Mil | 44.95 Mil | 45.20 Mil | -1.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 45.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/8/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Allen, Frances L | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 143.60 | 1,000 | 143,600 | 2,159,744 | Form | |
| 2 | Allen, Frances L | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 139.25 | 1,300 | 181,025 | 2,233,570 | Form | |
| 3 | Allen, Frances L | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 135.78 | 1,000 | 135,780 | 2,523,879 | Form | |
| 4 | Katzman, James C | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 128.11 | 547 | 70,076 | 3,697,511 | Form | |
| 5 | Katzman, James C | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 164.19 | 447 | 73,393 | 4,760,525 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Allen, Frances L | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 143.60 | 1,000 | 143,600 | 2,159,744 | Form | |
| 2 | Allen, Frances L | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 139.25 | 1,300 | 181,025 | 2,233,570 | Form | |
| 3 | Allen, Frances L | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 135.78 | 1,000 | 135,780 | 2,523,879 | Form | |
| 4 | Katzman, James C | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 128.11 | 547 | 70,076 | 3,697,511 | Form | |
| 5 | Katzman, James C | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 164.19 | 447 | 73,393 | 4,760,525 | Form | |
| 6 | Comings, Douglas N | SVP & COO, Chili's | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 171.48 | 1,300 | 222,924 | 1,899,484 | Form |
| 7 | Fuller, Daniel S | SVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 167.64 | 4,042 | 677,601 | 6,720,185 | Form |
| 8 | Ware, Michaela M | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2062026 | 162.40 | 5,000 | 812,000 | 3,235,555 | Form |
| 9 | Felix, George S | SVP, Chief Marketing Officer | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 161.00 | 10,431 | 1,679,391 | 1,298,304 | Form |
| 10 | Hochman, Kevin | Pres. & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 160.31 | 66,000 | 10,580,460 | 20,812,085 | Form |
| 11 | Edelman, Harriet | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 159.00 | 8,400 | 1,335,600 | 3,339,636 | Form | |
| 12 | Ranade, Prashant | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 152.70 | 637 | 97,270 | 1,551,432 | Form | |
| 13 | Katzman, James C | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 112.83 | 428 | 48,291 | 3,256,838 | Form | |
| 14 | Comings, Douglas N | SVP & COO, Chili's | Direct | Sell | 9102025 | 156.48 | 16,000 | 2,503,680 | 2,026,572 | Form |
| 15 | Ranade, Prashant | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 159.64 | 511 | 81,576 | 1,670,952 | Form | |
| 16 | Hochman, Kevin | Pres. & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8282025 | 157.82 | 44,000 | 6,944,080 | 33,594,670 | Form |
| 17 | White, Aaron M | EVP, COO and CPO | Direct | Sell | 8282025 | 157.16 | 1,080 | 169,733 | 8,229,841 | Form |
| 18 | Felix, George S | SVP, Chief Marketing Officer | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 159.19 | 11,769 | 1,873,507 | 3,756,247 | Form |
| 19 | Ranade, Prashant | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 154.06 | 1,882 | 289,941 | 1,652,910 | Form | |
| 20 | Edelman, Harriet | Direct | Sell | 8152025 | 157.00 | 8,325 | 1,307,025 | 4,538,085 | Form | |
| 21 | Depinto, Joseph Michael | Direct | Sell | 6092025 | 170.36 | 10,000 | 1,703,600 | 16,916,237 | Form | |
| 22 | Ware, Michaela M | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042025 | 170.30 | 5,712 | 972,754 | 3,442,167 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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