Dell Technologies (DELL)
Market Price (5/8/2026): $228.88 | Market Cap: $151.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Dell Technologies (DELL)
Market Price (5/8/2026): $228.88Market Cap: $151.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.6% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 12 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 143% Key risksDELL key risks include [1] margin pressure and cash flow strain from its booming but high-cost AI server business and [2] concurrent weakness in its personal computer segment. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.6% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 12 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 143% |
| Key risksDELL key risks include [1] margin pressure and cash flow strain from its booming but high-cost AI server business and [2] concurrent weakness in its personal computer segment. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Surging Demand for AI-Optimized Servers and Record Backlog.
Dell Technologies experienced a significant increase in demand for its AI-optimized servers, which are critical for running artificial intelligence workloads in data centers. The company reported a more than fourfold increase in AI revenue during the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, which concluded on January 30, 2026. Dell booked $34.1 billion in new AI orders in Q4 FY26 and closed the fiscal year with a record AI server backlog of $43 billion, indicating sustained future demand. Management anticipates $50 billion in AI revenue for the current fiscal year (FY27), representing a 103% year-over-year increase.
2. Strong Financial Performance and Optimistic Future Guidance.
Dell reported robust financial results that surpassed analyst expectations, significantly boosting investor confidence. For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, reported on February 26, 2026, revenue increased by 39.5% year-over-year to $33.38 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $31.60 billion. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.89, outperforming the $3.53 estimate. The company provided an upbeat outlook for Q1 fiscal year 2027, projecting revenue between $34.7 billion and $35.7 billion, a 51% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Full fiscal year 2027 guidance estimates revenue between $138.0 billion and $142.0 billion (a 23% year-over-year increase at the midpoint) and diluted non-GAAP EPS of $12.90.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 101.2% change in DELL stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 73.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 114.44 | 230.27 | 101.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 104,090 | 113,538 | 9.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.7 | 25.6 | 73.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 671 | 660 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 101.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DELL | 101.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 25.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 18.1% | 29.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.8% change in DELL stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 161.30 | 230.27 | 42.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 101,451 | 113,538 | 11.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.8% | 5.2% | 9.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.6 | 25.6 | 13.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 678 | 660 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DELL | 42.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 35.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 13.2% | 39.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 154.0% change in DELL stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 84.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 90.67 | 230.27 | 154.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 95,567 | 113,538 | 18.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.8% | 5.2% | 8.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.9 | 25.6 | 84.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 702 | 660 | 6.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 154.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DELL | 154.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 41.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 62.6% | 46.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 456.8% change in DELL stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 119.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.36 | 230.27 | 456.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 102,301 | 113,538 | 11.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.4% | 5.2% | 119.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.1 | 25.6 | 111.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 716 | 660 | 8.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 456.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DELL | 456.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 49.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 129.7% | 54.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DELL Return | 52% | -27% | 96% | 53% | 11% | 91% | 609% |
| Peers Return | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 123% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DELL Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 75% | 75% | 50% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DELL Max Drawdown | -3% | -39% | -8% | -2% | -38% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL. See DELL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DELL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 420 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -39.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 271 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -45.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 103 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Dell Technologies's stock fell -40.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 68.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | DELL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 420 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -39.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 271 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -45.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 103 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Dell Technologies's stock fell -40.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 68.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Dell Technologies (DELL)
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The HP of computers and data center equipment.
A bit like IBM, but focused on providing the physical and virtual infrastructure for IT solutions.
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- Servers: A range of rack, blade, tower, and hyperscale servers for various computing and data processing needs.
- Storage Solutions: Traditional and next-generation storage products designed for data management and retention.
- Networking Products: Hardware and services that enable customers to build and modernize their IT infrastructure networks.
- Personal Computers: Desktops, workstations, and notebooks for individual and professional use.
- Displays & Peripherals: Monitors, projectors, and various attached or third-party accessories for computing devices.
- Cloud & Virtualization Software (VMware): Solutions supporting hybrid/multi-cloud, modern applications, networking, security, and digital workspaces.
- Information Security Solutions: Products and services dedicated to protecting IT environments and data from cyber threats.
- IT Support & Deployment Services: Comprehensive services including configuration, deployment, support, and extended warranties for hardware and software.
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Michael Dell, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Michael Dell founded Dell Technologies in 1984 from his college dorm room. He served as CEO until 2004, returning to the role in 2007. In 2013, he took Dell Inc. private in a significant management buyout, then engineered the largest technology deal in history by combining Dell, EMC, and VMware in 2016, subsequently relisting Dell Technologies on the public markets in 2018. This demonstrates a pattern of managing companies, including taking one private with private equity backing. In 1998, he formed MSD Capital (now DFO Management), a private investment firm that manages capital for the Dell family, holding stakes in various investments. Dell's cloud software arm, VMware, was spun off in 2021 and later acquired by Broadcom in 2023, with a portion of the proceeds going to Dell.
David Kennedy, Interim Chief Financial Officer
David Kennedy was appointed interim Chief Financial Officer of Dell Technologies effective September 9, 2025. He is a long-time Dell executive, having joined the company in 1998. Prior to his current role, Kennedy served as Senior Vice President of Dell Global Business Operations, Finance. His experience at Dell also includes serving as senior vice president and Chief Operating Officer of Dell Global Sales, and senior vice president and Chief Financial Officer of the company's Client Solutions Group (CSG).
Jeff Clarke, Vice Chairman & Co-Chief Operating Officer
Jeff Clarke has been with Dell for over three decades and serves as Vice Chairman and Co-Chief Operating Officer. He is responsible for overseeing global operations, product development, and infrastructure solutions. Clarke has been instrumental in transforming Dell from a PC-centric company into a leader in enterprise technology, focusing on servers, storage, and cloud infrastructure. He also leads product engineering, global manufacturing, procurement, and supply chain activities.
Chuck Whitten, Co-Chief Operating Officer
Chuck Whitten shares operational leadership responsibilities as Co-Chief Operating Officer, focusing on go-to-market strategy, customer engagement, and cross-functional alignment across Dell's business units. He joined Dell in 2021, bringing an analytical mindset and deep understanding of digital transformation from his previous role as a consultant with Bain & Company. Whitten is focused on making the organization more customer-centric and data-driven, refining sales execution, and strengthening Dell's competitive position.
John Roese, Global Chief Technology Officer & Chief AI Officer
John Roese leads Dell Technologies' global technology strategy, with a focus on positioning the company as a leader in AI, edge computing, 5G, and multicloud ecosystems. He joined Dell in 2012 and has held technology leadership roles at various companies, including Huawei, Nortel, and Broadcom. Roese oversees long-term research and development direction, partnerships with hyperscalers, and the integration of AI capabilities throughout Dell's portfolio.
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Here are the key risks to Dell Technologies:
- Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure: Dell Technologies operates in highly competitive markets across its Client Solutions Group (CSG), Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), and software/services offerings. The company faces significant competition from traditional hardware vendors, other IT solution providers, and increasingly from hyperscale cloud providers offering Infrastructure-as-a-Service. This intense rivalry leads to pricing pressure, which can erode profit margins, especially in commoditized segments like personal computers and even in high-growth areas such as AI servers where aggressive pricing is observed.
- Economic Sensitivity and Fluctuations in IT Spending: Dell's business is significantly influenced by global macroeconomic conditions and cyclical enterprise and consumer IT spending. Economic downturns or uncertainty can lead to reduced demand for its desktops, workstations, and notebooks (CSG), as well as delays in corporate infrastructure investments (ISG), directly impacting revenue and growth.
- Rapid Technological Change and Market Disruption: The fast pace of technological advancement and evolving customer demands represent a continuous risk for Dell Technologies. The ongoing shift towards cloud-based solutions and consumption models can reduce demand for traditional on-premises hardware and software. While Dell offers hybrid cloud and multi-cloud solutions and invests in artificial intelligence, adapting to these shifts requires continuous innovation and can lead to margin pressures, especially as certain high-growth products like AI servers initially carry lower profitability.
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The following are clear emerging threats for Dell Technologies:
- Accelerated Shift to Public Cloud Computing: The continued and accelerating migration of enterprise IT workloads and infrastructure to hyper-scale public cloud providers such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform (GCP) directly threatens Dell's core Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) segment. These public cloud offerings provide on-demand, scalable compute, storage, and networking as a service, reducing the need for customers to purchase and maintain traditional on-premises servers, storage arrays, and networking equipment, which are central to Dell's hardware business. This shift represents a fundamental change in how IT resources are consumed and managed, moving away from capital expenditure on Dell's hardware to operational expenditure with cloud providers.
- Proliferation of Cloud-Native Client Devices: The increasing adoption of lightweight, cloud-centric operating systems and devices, such as Google Chrome OS-powered Chromebooks and various thin client solutions, poses a threat to Dell's Client Solutions Group (CSG). These devices, often characterized by lower costs, simplified management, and reliance on cloud-based applications, are gaining traction in educational, business productivity, and general computing environments. This trend challenges the demand for traditional, higher-spec, Windows-based desktops, workstations, and notebooks that form a significant part of Dell's CSG revenue.
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Dell Technologies (symbol: DELL) operates in several large addressable markets for its diverse range of IT solutions, products, and services. The market sizes for their main offerings, primarily based on 2024 data, are as follows:
Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG)
- Servers: The global data center server market was valued at approximately USD 216.66 billion in 2024. Additionally, the global server market size was valued at USD 106.68 billion in 2024. Another source estimates the global server market size at USD 103.65 billion in 2024.
- Enterprise Storage Solutions: The global Enterprise Storage Systems market size was USD 220.14 billion in 2024. Another estimate places the global enterprise storage system market at approximately USD 78.41 billion in 2024.
Client Solutions Group (CSG)
- Personal Computers (Desktops, Workstations, and Notebooks): Worldwide PC shipments totaled 245.4 million units in 2024. Other reports indicate global PC shipments reaching 262.7 million units in 2024 or 255.97 million units in 2024.
- Desktops: The global desktop computer market value stood at USD 29.6 billion in 2024.
- Workstations: The global workstation desktop PC market size was valued at USD 1.92 billion in 2024. However, the broader global workstations market was valued at approximately USD 32 billion in 2023.
- Notebooks: The global laptop market size reached USD 151.1 billion in 2024. Other estimates for the global notebook market size in 2024 include USD 109.9 billion, USD 72.5 billion, and USD 71.24 billion.
Cloud and Security Solutions (Historically including VMware segment, and broader offerings)
- Hybrid Cloud: The global hybrid cloud computing market size was valued at US$141.61 billion in 2024. Other sources estimate the global hybrid cloud market at US$130.87 billion in 2024, US$94.94 billion in 2024, US$82.61 billion in 2024, and US$79.4 billion in 2024.
- Multi-Cloud Computing/Management: The global multi-cloud computing market size was valued at USD 13.18 billion in 2024. The global multi-cloud management market size is estimated at USD 10.58 billion in 2024.
- Information Security / Cybersecurity: The global Cybersecurity Market size is projected to reach US$228.33 billion in 2024. Other figures for 2024 include an estimated market size of USD 208.8 billion and global information security end-user spending of $183.9 billion.
- Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS): The global Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) cloud computing market size was valued at US$206.85 billion in 2024. Other estimates for the worldwide IaaS market in 2024 include $171.8 billion, US$156.93 billion, and US$98 billion.
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Dell Technologies (DELL) is anticipated to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years driven by several key factors:- Surging Demand for AI Servers and Infrastructure: Dell is strategically positioned as a premier infrastructure partner in the generative AI era, with a significant increase in demand for AI-optimized servers. The company's AI server business is projected to double, targeting approximately $50 billion in fiscal year 2027, with substantial order backlogs reported. This growth is further supported by an expanding enterprise AI customer base.
- Continued Growth in Traditional Servers and Networking: Within its Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), Dell expects sustained growth in its traditional server and networking segments. The traditional server market remains robust, with high single-digit growth projected, demonstrating consistent performance over multiple quarters.
- Expansion of IP Storage Solutions: The company's storage business, particularly its Intellectual Property (IP) storage portfolio, is identified as a significant driver of multi-quarter growth and margin expansion. Dell has previously reported record storage revenue, indicating strong performance in this area.
- Stabilization and Growth in Commercial Client Solutions: After a period of flux, the Client Solutions Group (CSG), which includes PCs, is expected to see stabilization and low single-digit revenue growth. This is particularly driven by momentum in commercial PCs, and the expansion of the total addressable market (TAM) through new products in commercial, education, and consumer segments.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Dell Technologies (DELL)
Share Repurchases
- On February 27, 2025, Dell's board approved a $10 billion increase in its share repurchase authorization. This built upon an existing authorization that was increased by $5 billion on October 5, 2023.
- Dell repurchased $7.5 billion worth of shares in fiscal year 2026, including 54 million shares, which was more than double the amount repurchased in fiscal year 2025.
- Annual share repurchases were $2.588 billion in fiscal year 2025, $2.08 billion in fiscal year 2024, and $3.272 billion in fiscal year 2023.
Share Issuance
- Between June and July 2025, Dell issued 3,421,793 shares of its Class C common stock, resulting from the conversion of an equal number of Class B common stock shares by Silver Lake entities.
Capital Expenditures
- Dell's capital expenditures were $2.652 billion in fiscal year 2025, $2.756 billion in fiscal year 2024, and $3.003 billion in fiscal year 2023.
- The company's capital expenditures are primarily focused on developing software, fostering innovation, and building solutions to support customers' digital transformation.
- A significant focus for capital allocation is on artificial intelligence (AI) and infrastructure development, including enhancing AI solutions, micro data centers, and advanced hardware for AI workloads.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to DELL.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 160.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 183.7 |
| Rev LTM | 63,983 |
| Op Inc LTM | 10,598 |
| FCF LTM | 10,396 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,858 |
| CFO LTM | 12,255 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 10,946 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 16.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 183.7 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 20.7 |
| P/EBIT | 20.2 |
| P/E | 22.8 |
| P/CFO | 14.5 |
| Total Yield | 4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 52.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 111.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 21.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 31.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Solutions Group | 48,393 | 48,916 | 58,213 | 61,464 | 48,387 |
| Infrastructure Solutions Group | 43,593 | 33,885 | 38,356 | 34,366 | 33,002 |
| Corporate and other | 3,581 | 5,624 | |||
| Impact of purchase accounting | 0 | -32 | -106 | ||
| Other businesses | 5,721 | 5,388 | 5,382 | ||
| Unallocated transactions | 11 | 11 | 5 | ||
| Total | 95,567 | 88,425 | 102,301 | 101,197 | 86,670 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure Solutions Group | 5,579 | 4,286 | 5,045 | 3,736 | 3,753 |
| Client Solutions Group | 2,972 | 3,712 | 3,824 | 4,365 | 3,333 |
| Corporate and other | -22 | -120 | |||
| Amortization of intangibles | -667 | -833 | -970 | -1,641 | -2,133 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | -785 | -878 | -931 | -808 | -487 |
| Other corporate expenses | -840 | -756 | -899 | -337 | -376 |
| Impact of purchase accounting | -44 | -67 | -144 | ||
| Other businesses | -240 | -319 | -139 | ||
| Transaction-related expenses | -22 | -273 | -124 | ||
| Unallocated transactions | 8 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Total | 6,237 | 5,411 | 5,771 | 4,659 | 3,685 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $230.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 152.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/26/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $178.13 | $143.21 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 29.3% | 60.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 69.9% | 51.0% |
| Downside Capture | -0.55 | 0.57 |
| Upside Capture | 217.50 | 184.20 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 24.5% | 40.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.09 | 0.86 | 1.20 | 1.54 | 1.64 | 1.73 |
| Up Beta | -0.34 | -0.23 | 0.11 | 0.66 | 1.26 | 1.43 |
| Down Beta | -6.45 | 2.07 | 3.53 | 3.33 | 2.52 | 2.12 |
| Up Capture | 173% | 222% | 270% | 184% | 277% | 1087% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 24 | 36 | 63 | 131 | 394 |
| Down Capture | -355% | -8% | -32% | 103% | 114% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 28 | 62 | 121 | 358 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DELL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | 149.0% | 51.0% | 1.95 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 60.0% | 20.6% | 2.18 | 46.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.6% | 12.5% | 1.86 | 40.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.0% | 27.1% | 1.14 | 5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.7% | 18.0% | 2.12 | 6.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 12.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.3% | 42.1% | -0.31 | 25.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DELL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | 38.5% | 47.1% | 0.85 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 20.4% | 24.8% | 0.73 | 55.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 51.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.1% | 17.9% | 0.96 | 9.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.1% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 17.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 26.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 21.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DELL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | 27.3% | 45.5% | 0.88 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.4% | 24.4% | 0.91 | 57.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 55.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.5% | 16.0% | 0.70 | 8.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.4% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 24.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 34.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 18.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | 21.9% | 20.6% | 41.5% |
| 11/25/2025 | 5.8% | 10.4% | 1.6% |
| 8/28/2025 | -8.9% | -6.9% | -0.1% |
| 5/29/2025 | -2.1% | -1.6% | 7.9% |
| 2/27/2025 | -4.7% | -13.7% | -14.4% |
| 11/26/2024 | -12.2% | -11.0% | -17.2% |
| 8/29/2024 | 4.3% | -7.9% | 7.0% |
| 5/30/2024 | -17.9% | -21.2% | -15.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 16 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -7.9% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 31.6% | 27.3% | 41.5% |
| Max Negative | -17.9% | -21.4% | -27.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/16/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/11/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/25/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/30/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Revenue | 34.70 Bil | 35.20 Bil | 35.70 Bil | 11.7% | Raised | Guidance: 31.50 Bil for Q4 2026 | |
| Q1 2027 GAAP Diluted EPS | 2.55 | -16.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.05 for Q4 2026 | |||
| Q1 2027 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | 2.9 | -17.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.5 for Q4 2026 | |||
| 2027 Revenue | 138.00 Bil | 140.00 Bil | 142.00 Bil | 25.3% | Raised | Guidance: 111.70 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2027 AI-Optimized Servers Revenue | 50.00 Bil | 100.0% | Raised | Guidance: 25.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2027 GAAP Diluted EPS | 11.5 | 37.5% | Raised | Guidance: 8.38 for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | 12.9 | 30.0% | Raised | Guidance: 9.92 for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/25/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | 31.00 Bil | 31.50 Bil | 32.00 Bil | ||||
| Q4 2026 GAAP Diluted EPS | 3.05 | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | 3.5 | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | 111.20 Bil | 111.70 Bil | 112.20 Bil | 4.4% | Raised | Guidance: 107.00 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 AI Server Shipments | 25.00 Bil | 25.0% | Raised | Guidance: 20.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 GAAP Diluted EPS | 8.38 | 5.0% | Raised | Guidance: 7.98 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | 9.92 | 3.9% | Raised | Guidance: 9.55 for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slta, V (gp), Llc | Held through SL SPV-2, L.P. | Sell | 4172026 | 176.50 | 135,097 | 23,844,620 | 24,561,210 | Form | |
| 2 | Slta, V (gp), Llc | Held through Silver Lake Partners IV, L.P. | Sell | 4172026 | 176.50 | 155,479 | 27,442,044 | 18,848,435 | Form | |
| 3 | Slta, V (gp), Llc | Held through Silver Lake Partners V DE (AIV), L.P. | Sell | 4172026 | 176.50 | 80,077 | 14,133,590 | 11,805,202 | Form | |
| 4 | Slta, V (gp), Llc | Held through Silver Lake Technology Investors IV, L.P. | Sell | 4172026 | 176.50 | 2,996 | Form | |||
| 5 | Slta, V (gp), Llc | Held through Silver Lake Technology Investors V, L.P. | Sell | 4172026 | 176.50 | 1,351 | Form |
DELL Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Dell earns a high conviction 'ACCUMULATE' rating. The company is successfully executing a major pivot into the AI infrastructure supercycle, which provides a powerful secular tailwind. The competitive moat in its target enterprise segment is widening, and the valuation, while elevated from historical levels, remains reasonable given the immense and highly visible growth ahead. The primary risks are operational and cyclical, not structural, and appear manageable.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type F: 'Transition / Profit Pivot' (Primary) / Type C: 'Secular Cyclical' (Secondary)Dell is undergoing a fundamental business model transition, re-rating from a slow-growth, cyclical PC/legacy hardware provider to a high-growth AI systems integrator. This pivot from a mature business to a new growth engine is the hallmark of a Type F. It is secondarily a Type C as its new growth is tied to the secular AI hardware supercycle.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis centers on Dell's ability to convert its massive $43 billion AI-optimized server backlog into high-margin revenue, fundamentally re-rating the company's growth profile and profitability. The market is underwriting Dell as the primary systems integrator for on-premise enterprise AI, shifting its valuation away from legacy hardware multiples.
- AI-Optimized Server Backlog of $43 billion as of January 30, 2026, providing high revenue visibility.
- Management guidance for approximately $50 billion in AI server revenue for FY2027, representing nearly 100% YoY growth.
- Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) operating margin expanded to 14.8% in Q4 FY2026, demonstrating pricing power in the AI server segment.
- ISG revenue grew 73% YoY in Q4 FY2026, indicating the AI growth engine is significantly out-accelerating the legacy business.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is that severe supply constraints on critical components for AI servers, specifically High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and the latest GPUs, will delay Dell's ability to convert its $43 billion backlog into recognized revenue. A significant slippage in the backlog conversion rate would break the near-term growth narrative and lead to a guidance cut, causing a sharp de-rating of the stock.
- Industry reports from March 2026 confirm shortages of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM3e) are actively delaying server deployments.
- NVIDIA's CFO has confirmed supply constraints for its latest GPUs and associated memory, which are critical for Dell's AI servers.
- Historically, hardware stocks have dropped 15-25% on news of supply constraints that delay recognition of strong demand.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| AI-Optimized Server Backlog | >$40 Billion (Sequential Growth) | The backlog is the primary leading indicator of future revenue and market share gains. Any sequential decline would be a major red flag for the growth thesis. |
| ISG Operating Margin % | Sustain >13.5% | This KPI is critical for testing the 'Anti-Alpha' thesis. Sustaining strong margins proves Dell has pricing power and that AI server growth is profitable, not just empty revenue. |
| Backlog Conversion Rate (AI Server Revenue / Prior Quarter Backlog) | Monitor for stable or accelerating trend | This measures the velocity of revenue recognition. A decelerating trend would be the first sign that supply constraints are causing the bear case to materialize. |
The AI Backlog: Growth Catalyst or Supply Chain Bottleneck?
BULL VIEW
Dell's supply chain expertise will navigate component shortages, converting the backlog into high-margin revenue and triggering a major stock re-rating based on its new AI growth profile.
CORE TENSION
Whether Dell can convert its massive $43B AI server backlog into revenue before supply constraints on components like HBM and GPUs cause material delays and a guidance cut.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Bulls are winning based on the latest reported quarter: ISG revenue grew 73% YoY and ISG operating margin was strong at 14.8%, proving the AI growth engine is firing.
BEAR VIEW
Severe HBM and GPU shortages will delay backlog conversion, forcing a guidance cut, breaking the growth narrative, and compressing the stock's 'AI premium' multiple.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
May 28, 2026 | Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call Watch: Backlog Conversion Rate and ISG Operating Margin. Watch for Q1 AI Server revenue relative to the $43B backlog and for ISG margins to remain above 14% vs the 14.8% Q4 baseline. |
Late August 2026 | Q2 FY2027 Earnings Call Watch: Sequential growth of the AI-Optimized Server Backlog. The key will be whether the backlog grows from its Q1-end level, signaling sustained, dominant demand. |
Early July 2026 | Gartner/IDC Q2 PC Shipment Data Release Watch: Global PC shipment YoY growth/decline. Specifically, watch for commentary on the commercial 'AI PC' refresh cycle and enterprise demand. |
Anytime (Legislative Calendar Dependent) | Vote on 'AI Overwatch Act' Watch: Headline: Whether the 'AI Overwatch Act' passes into law, granting Congress veto power over semiconductor export licenses. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Oct 7, 2025 | Investor Day / Securities Analyst Meeting Details: Dell held a securities analyst meeting to review company strategy and its long-term financial framework, reinforcing the AI-driven growth narrative to investors. | Surged +9.1% $149.67 -> $163.23 |
Nov 25, 2025 | Q3 FY2026 Earnings Details: Delivered record Q3 revenue of $27.0B (+11% YoY) and raised full-year FY26 revenue guidance to $111.7B, citing accelerating AI momentum and raising AI server shipment guidance to $25B. | Surged +5.8% $125.37 -> $132.67 |
Jan 12, 2026 | Strategic: PC Portfolio Rebranding Details: Dell rebranded its complex PC lineup to a simpler 'good, better, best' model (Dell, Dell Pro, Dell Pro Max) to clarify its offerings ahead of an expected AI PC refresh cycle. | Muted (-0.7%) $119.94 -> $119.13 |
Jan 22, 2026 | Geopolitical: 'AI Overwatch Act' Progress Details: The 'AI Overwatch Act' passed a key House committee, introducing potential for future supply chain uncertainty for hardware manufacturers selling globally. The market reaction was minimal. | Slight -1.5% pullback $117.17 -> $115.43 |
Feb 26, 2026 | Q4 FY2026 Earnings & FY2027 Guidance Details: Reported record Q4 results with ISG revenue up 73% YoY. Announced a $43B AI server backlog and guided FY2027 AI server revenue to ~$50B, causing a major stock re-rating. | Surged +21.9% $121.45 -> $148.08 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive volatility regime (4.5x S&P) with near-term fear spiking. While the AI growth thesis is strong, the Neutral sentiment and extreme volatility warrant capping the position size to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
ANET
SECTORArista is a pure-play on AI networking, a critical 'picks and shovels' part of the buildout. It avoids Dell's legacy PC drag and the intense Dell vs. HPE/SMCI server competition.
VRT
SECTORVertiv is a direct play on the AI-driven surge in data center power and cooling needs, especially liquid cooling. This is a critical problem Dell must solve, but Vertiv monetizes directly.
Dell is re-rating from a cyclical PC and legacy hardware provider to the primary systems integrator for enterprise AI, driven by a multi-billion dollar backlog for its PowerEdge AI-optimized servers.
Filter all news through the lens of AI server backlog conversion and Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) margin performance.
ISG revenue growth >+50% YoY; sustained AI server backlog above $40 billion; evidence of high-margin storage and services attaching to AI server deals; share gains in the commercial PC market driven by the AI PC refresh cycle.
AI server backlog declining sequentially; ISG operating margins compressing below 12% due to high component costs (e.g., HBM, liquid cooling); significant delays in backlog conversion to revenue; market share loss in enterprise storage to competitors like Pure Storage or NetApp.
Quarterly consumer PC market share fluctuations the profit engine is enterprise; minor shifts in legacy server demand the focus is AI-optimized systems; short-term component cost commentary without impact on guided margins.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the conversion of its $43 billion AI-optimized server backlog (as of Jan 30, 2026) into recognized revenue. Management has guided for approximately $50 billion in AI server revenue for FY2027, which represents a ~100% YoY growth rate. The market is rewarding Dell for its ability to capture a dominant share of the on-premise enterprise AI infrastructure buildout with its PowerEdge XE9680 servers housing NVIDIA's latest GPUs.
AI & Traditional Servers, Networking & Storage (ISG)
$60.8B TTM (53.6% of Total) · 21.7% MarginWhat It Is
PowerEdge AI-optimized servers (e.g., XE9680), traditional servers, PowerMax and PowerStore storage arrays, PowerSwitch networking hardware, and related support services.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises and cloud service providers pay for integrated, pre-validated systems to run AI training/inference and mission-critical workloads. Customers choose Dell for its global supply chain, service, and ability to deploy complex solutions at scale.
Competition
Commercial & Consumer PCs (CSG)
$51.0B TTM (44.9% of Total) · 21.6% MarginWhat It Is
Latitude commercial laptops, Precision workstations, OptiPlex desktops, XPS consumer laptops, and Alienware gaming PCs.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises pay for standardized, secure, and manageable fleets of PCs for their employees. Consumers pay for performance and brand in premium and gaming segments. Dell's direct sales model and supply chain efficiency historically provided a cost and customization advantage.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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