Docebo (DCBO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.61 | Market Cap: $621.2 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Docebo (DCBO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.61Market Cap: $621.2 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Future of Work. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Future of Work. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -101% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DCBO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The search results indicate that Docebo (DCBO) reported its Q3 2025 earnings on November 7, 2025. These results generally exceeded expectations with strong ARR growth, and increased guidance. Despite these positive earnings, there are mentions of "Docebo Stock Is Having a Rough 2025" from August 2025 and analyst downgrades.
However, the provided search results contain information that largely paints a positive picture regarding Q3 2025 earnings, with phrases like "results exceeding expectations", "strong ARR Growth", "Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates". There are also references to analyst downgrades *prior* to or around the beginning of the specified period, such as an August 18, 2025 article titled "Docebo Stock: Rating Downgrade As Near-Term Growth Disappoints", and a November 14, 2025 article titled "Docebo Continues Downward Revenue Growth Trend (Downgrade)", which explicitly downgrades DCBO to "Sell". The stock experienced a 45.6% loss since the beginning of 2025 according to a November 7, 2025 article. Another article states the stock is down 34% in 2025 as of August 29, 2025.
The core issue is explaining a *specific* -30.7% drop *within* the period 8/31/2025 to 12/4/2025. While there's information about Q3 2025 earnings (which were mostly positive) and prior downgrades, the results do not pinpoint specific events *within* the 8/31/2025 to 12/4/2025 timeframe that would cause a *30.7% drop*. In fact, the earnings reports seem to have led to a stock surge in August 2025 for Q2 results. The Q3 results in November 2025 also showed beats.
However, the article from November 14, 2025, which explicitly downgrades the stock to "Sell" and cites "slowing revenue growth rate, lack of near-term catalysts, and unpredictable U.S. federal contract outcomes" seems to be a key point. Additionally, the Q3 2025 earnings call transcript from November 27, 2025, mentions the "Dayforce OEM wind down accelerated faster than anticipated, resulting in a declining customer count" and an "AWS Skill Builder Impact" with an "expected approximately $4 million ARR reduction". These factors, despite Q3 beats, could contribute to a negative sentiment.
An August 29, 2025 article also highlights that "the TSX tech stock is down 64% from all-time highs and 34% in 2025 due to slowing revenue growth", and that "The loss of AWS as a customer will create Q4 headwinds". This shows that concerns about slowing growth and the AWS contract were already present at the beginning of the specified period.
Therefore, the -30.7% movement from 8/31/2025 to 12/4/2025 can be attributed to the compounding effect of these concerns, even if individual earnings reports showed beats. The downgrades and explicit mention of "slowing revenue growth" and "lack of near-term catalysts" are strong indicators.
Here are the key points for why Docebo's stock moved by -30.7% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Continued concerns over slowing revenue growth. Docebo's stock was already down significantly in 2025 due to slowing revenue growth, with sales growth in Q2 2025 slowing to 14.5% year-over-year. Analysts also downgraded the stock in August 2025 due to a more muted near-term growth outlook than expected. This sentiment continued into November 2025, with an explicit downgrade to "Sell" due to a "slowing revenue growth rate" and projected top-line growth of 11.4% for 2025, which lagged industry peers and broader SaaS benchmarks.
2. Accelerated wind-down of the Dayforce OEM partnership. During the Q3 2025 earnings call, it was revealed that the Dayforce OEM wind-down accelerated faster than anticipated, contributing to a declining total customer count. This OEM partnership was expected to have an "immaterial" impact on revenue by 2027, but the faster wind-down created headwinds.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DCBO Return | - | 3% | -51% | 46% | -7% | -52% | -67% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -2% | -7% | 5% | 55% | 836% | 1483% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DCBO Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 40% | ||
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 10% | 9% | 30% | 44% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DCBO Max Drawdown | - | -40% | -64% | -10% | -29% | -54% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -4% | -8% | -15% | -8% | -51% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DCBO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -74.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 286.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -5.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 6.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 148 days |
Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC
In The Past
Docebo's stock fell -74.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/16/2021. A -74.1% loss requires a 286.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DCBO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Docebo
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 237 |
| Op Inc LTM | 21 |
| FCF LTM | 142 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 216 |
| CFO LTM | 170 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 271 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 33.0 |
| P/E | 35.8 |
| P/CFO | 26.9 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -24.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -27.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 9.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -29.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -32.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -45.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -58.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3092023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3102022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |