Chevron (CVX)
Market Price (3/19/2026): $199.7 | Market Cap: $397.6 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Chevron (CVX)
Market Price (3/19/2026): $199.7Market Cap: $397.6 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.2% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 12x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 34 Bil, FCF LTM is 17 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -30% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.3% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | Key risksCVX key risks include [1] increasing regulatory pressures, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include US LNG, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 34 Bil, FCF LTM is 17 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include US LNG, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -30% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 12x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.3% |
| Key risksCVX key risks include [1] increasing regulatory pressures, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Exceeded Q4 2025 Earnings Expectations.
Chevron reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.52 for the fourth quarter of 2025 on January 30, 2026, surpassing the consensus analyst estimate of $1.44 by $0.08, or 5.56%.
2. Increased Shareholder Returns.
On January 30, 2026, Chevron's Board of Directors announced a 4% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to $1.78 per share, payable on March 10, 2026. The company also returned a total of $27.1 billion to shareholders in 2025, which included $12.1 billion in share repurchases.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.7% change in CVX stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 41.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 149.67 | 198.61 | 32.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 186,979 | 184,432 | -1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.8% | 6.7% | -2.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.7 | 32.2 | 41.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,939 | 1,991 | -2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVX | 32.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.2% | -1.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 29.2% | 86.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.3% change in CVX stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 63.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 157.29 | 198.61 | 26.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 187,736 | 184,432 | -1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.3% | 6.7% | -8.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.7 | 32.2 | 63.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,719 | 1,991 | -13.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVX | 26.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 30.4% | 85.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.8% change in CVX stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 111.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 151.79 | 198.61 | 30.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 193,414 | 184,432 | -4.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.1% | 6.7% | -27.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.2 | 32.2 | 111.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,772 | 1,991 | -11.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVX | 30.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.3% | 47.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 31.6% | 90.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 40.3% change in CVX stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 322.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 141.60 | 198.61 | 40.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 235,717 | 184,432 | -21.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.0% | 6.7% | -55.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.6 | 32.2 | 322.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,908 | 1,991 | -4.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVX | 40.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.1% | 37.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 53.3% | 89.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CVX Return | 46% | 58% | -14% | 1% | 10% | 31% | 193% |
| Peers Return | 51% | 75% | 13% | -4% | 17% | 38% | 364% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -2% | 79% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CVX Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 70% | 53% | 45% | 67% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CVX Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | -19% | -5% | -7% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | 0% | -13% | -10% | -14% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XOM, COP, MPC, VLO, PSX. See CVX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CVX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 110 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 652 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,130 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 725 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to XOM, COP, MPC, VLO, PSX
In The Past
Chevron's stock fell -24.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -24.9% loss requires a 33.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Chevron (CVX)
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Chevron is like ExxonMobil for global oil and gas.
Chevron is like Shell for integrated energy and chemicals.
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- Crude Oil: Explored, developed, produced, and transported globally.
- Natural Gas: Explored, developed, produced, transported, stored, and marketed worldwide.
- Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Processed, liquefied, transported, and regasified for global energy markets.
- Petroleum Products: Refined from crude oil into fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
- Lubricants: Manufactured and marketed for automotive, industrial, and marine applications.
- Renewable Fuels: Produced and marketed as part of its energy transition efforts.
- Commodity Petrochemicals and Plastics: Manufactured and marketed for diverse industrial uses.
- Fuel and Lubricant Additives: Produced and marketed to improve product performance.
- Gas-to-Liquids (GTL) Products: Manufactured from natural gas using advanced conversion technology.
- Energy Exploration & Production Services: Involves the discovery, development, and extraction of crude oil and natural gas reserves.
- Energy Transportation & Logistics Services: Provides transportation for crude oil, natural gas, LNG, and refined products through various networks.
- Natural Gas Marketing & Storage Services: Offers solutions for marketing and storing natural gas.
- Financial Services: Includes cash management and debt financing operations.
- Insurance Operations: Provides internal and external insurance-related services.
- Real Estate Activities: Involves the management and development of real estate assets.
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Chevron Corporation (CVX) primarily operates in a business-to-business (B2B) model, serving a diverse global customer base across its integrated energy and chemicals operations. Due to the commodity nature of many of its products and its broad market reach, Chevron typically does not disclose a specific list of its major customers in its public filings. However, based on its business segments, Chevron's major customers generally include large companies in the following categories:
- Airlines: Major air carriers are significant purchasers of jet fuel. Examples of public companies in this category include Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) and United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL).
- Electric and Gas Utilities: These companies purchase natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for power generation, heating, and distribution. Examples of public utilities include PG&E Corporation (PCG) and Sempra Energy (SRE).
- Industrial and Chemical Manufacturers: Companies across various industrial sectors are buyers of petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. Examples of public companies in the chemical sector include Dow Inc. (DOW) and LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB).
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Here is the management team for Chevron (CVX):Michael K. Wirth
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
Michael Wirth has served as Chairman and CEO of Chevron Corporation since 2018. He joined Chevron in 1982 as a design engineer and has held various leadership positions across the company's Downstream and Chemicals, Midstream and Development, and Global Supply and Trading operations over his more than four-decade career. Wirth holds a bachelor's degree in chemical engineering from the University of Colorado, Boulder. There is no information available to indicate that he founded or managed other companies, sold companies he was previously involved with to an acquirer, or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.
Eimear P. Bonner
Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Eimear P. Bonner became Chevron's Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on March 1, 2024. She is responsible for audit, controllership, investor relations, tax, and treasury activities worldwide. Bonner joined Chevron in 1998 as an offshore petroleum engineer in the United Kingdom. Her career at Chevron includes roles such as President of the Chevron Technical Center and Chief Technology Officer, and General Director of Tengizchevroil (TCO), a Chevron joint venture in Kazakhstan. She holds a bachelor's degree in chemical engineering from Queen's University Belfast and master's degrees in advanced chemical engineering and petroleum engineering from Imperial College, London. There is no information available to indicate that she founded or managed other companies, sold companies she was previously involved with to an acquirer, or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.
Mark A. Nelson
Vice Chairman, Executive Vice President, Oil, Products & Gas
Mark A. Nelson is Vice Chairman and Executive Vice President of Oil, Products & Gas for Chevron Corporation. In this role, he is responsible for the entire value chain, focusing on integrated capital allocation, asset class excellence, and value chain optimization. Nelson joined Chevron U.S.A. Inc. in 1985 as an engineer and has held numerous leadership positions across various segments of the business, including executive vice president of Downstream & Chemicals, vice president of Midstream, Strategy & Policy, and president of International Products. He holds a bachelor's degree in civil engineering from California Polytechnic State University.
R. Hewitt Pate
Chief Legal Officer
R. Hewitt Pate has served as Vice President and General Counsel (Chief Legal Officer) of Chevron Corporation since 2009. He directs the company's worldwide legal affairs and is a member of its Executive Committee. Prior to joining Chevron, Pate was a partner at Hunton & Williams LLP, where he headed the firm's Global Competition practice. He also served as Assistant Attorney General for the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice from 2003 to 2005, and as Deputy Assistant Attorney General from 2001 to 2003. He earned his bachelor's degree from the University of North Carolina and his law degree from the University of Virginia.
Kevin Lyon
Chief Strategy Officer
Kevin Lyon is the Chief Strategy Officer for Chevron Corporation, a position he assumed effective March 1, 2026. In this role, he leads the development of the company's enterprise strategy, overseeing capital allocation, enterprise portfolio optimization, and sustainability initiatives. Lyon joined Chevron in 1988 and has held senior leadership positions across downstream, midstream, and upstream operations in various international locations. Most recently, he led Chevron's integration of Hess. He holds a bachelor of science in electrical and electronic engineering from the University of Wyoming.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Chevron (CVX) are:- Commodity Price Volatility: Chevron's financial performance is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global prices of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Extended periods of low prices, driven by factors such as oversupply or reduced demand due to economic conditions and the energy transition, can significantly impact the company's earnings, cash flows, and capital expenditure programs.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Operational Disruptions: As a global energy company, Chevron's operations are exposed to geopolitical risks, including conflicts, civil unrest, and political instability in regions where it operates (e.g., the Middle East, Venezuela, Kazakhstan). These tensions can lead to supply chain disruptions, operational interruptions (such as the shutdown of facilities), and potential changes in regulatory environments, directly affecting production volumes and project economics.
- Energy Transition and Regulatory/Environmental Pressures: The accelerating global shift towards lower-carbon energy sources and increasing regulatory scrutiny on greenhouse gas emissions and climate change pose significant challenges. This includes the pressure to adopt cleaner energy solutions, comply with evolving environmental policies, and achieve ambitious ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) targets. Failure to adapt to these trends can result in increased operational costs, limitations on future development, and reputational damage.
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Accelerated global energy transition and decarbonization efforts, driven by policy shifts, technological advancements in renewable energy and electric vehicles, and changing consumer and investor preferences, which threaten the long-term demand for Chevron's core fossil fuel products and associated infrastructure.
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Chevron (symbol: CVX) operates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services:
- Crude Oil: The global crude oil market size is projected to reach approximately $3,188.67 billion in 2026. In terms of volume, the global crude oil market reached approximately 101.40 million barrels per day (MB/d) in 2025.
- Natural Gas: The global natural gas market size is estimated to be $1,591.93 billion in 2026.
- Refined Petroleum Products: The global refined petroleum products market size is projected to grow from $3,128.22 billion in 2025 to $3,254.8 billion in 2026. Asia-Pacific was the largest region in this market in 2025.
- Lubricants: The global lubricants market size was valued at USD 178.98 billion in 2025 and is projected to be worth USD 182.53 billion in 2026. Asia Pacific dominated the global lubricants market with a market share of 36.80% in 2025. The U.S. lubricants market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 18.82 billion by 2032.
- Renewable Fuels: The global Renewable Fuel Market size is estimated at USD 136.66 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 276.31 billion by 2030. Specifically, the global renewable diesel market was estimated at USD 25.8 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 27.3 billion in 2026 and USD 57.9 billion by 2035. The North America renewable diesel market alone accounted for USD 12.4 billion in 2025.
- Petrochemicals and Plastics: The global petrochemical market size was calculated at USD 700.10 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase from USD 743.50 billion in 2026 to approximately USD 1,257.50 billion by 2035. Asia Pacific dominated the petrochemicals market with a market share of 52.50% in 2025.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Chevron (CVX) over the next 2-3 years:
- Increased Oil and Gas Production: Chevron anticipates increasing its overall oil and gas production by 2% to 3% annually through 2030, with a projected year-over-year production growth of 7% to 10% in 2026, excluding asset sales. This growth is expected from high-margin assets, particularly in the Permian Basin, where output is targeted to increase by 9% to 10% in 2025. Significant contributions are also expected from offshore projects in Guyana, the Gulf of America, and the Eastern Mediterranean.
- Hess Acquisition and Synergy Realization: The acquisition of Hess Corporation is a significant driver, projected to add approximately 465,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) to Chevron's production. The deal also aims to achieve substantial cost synergies, initially targeting $1 billion, and subsequently boosted to $1.5 billion, coupled with structural cost reductions of $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of 2026. This acquisition grants Chevron a 30% interest in Guyana's Stabroek Block, a low-cost, high-growth asset.
- Cost Reduction and Capital Discipline: Chevron is focused on achieving structural cost reductions of $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of 2026. This commitment to capital discipline and efficiency gains is expected to improve net margins and free cash flow, indirectly supporting revenue growth by enhancing overall profitability.
- Strategic Project Start-ups and Ramp-ups: The company expects revenue growth from several major projects that are starting up or ramping up. These include the Future Growth Project at Tengiz, the start-up of Ballymore and Whale, and the ramp-up of Anchor in the Gulf of America. Additionally, projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, such as the Leviathan capacity expansion, Tamar optimization, and Aphrodite entering Front-End Engineering Design (FEED), are anticipated to contribute to increased earnings and free cash flow.
- New Energy Ventures: Chevron is diversifying its operations by venturing into new energy solutions. The company plans to launch its first AI-powered data center project in West Texas, targeting operational status by 2027. This initiative represents a step towards expanding revenue streams beyond traditional oil and gas.
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Share Repurchases
- Chevron expects to repurchase between $10 billion and $20 billion of shares annually through 2030.
- In 2024, Chevron repurchased $15.23 billion in stock, following $14.94 billion in 2023 and $11.26 billion in 2022.
- In the first quarter of 2025, share buybacks totaled $3.9 billion, with plans for $2.5 billion to $3 billion in the second quarter of 2025.
Share Issuance
- Chevron issued approximately 301 million shares of common stock to Hess Corporation stockholders upon the completion of the Hess acquisition in July 2025.
- Shares were issued to PDC Energy shareholders as part of the acquisition, with 0.4638 of a Chevron share exchanged for each PDC share.
- Chevron's shares outstanding increased to 1.997 billion by the end of 2025, representing a 9.91% increase year-over-year.
Inbound Investments
- BlackRock and Vanguard increased their Chevron holdings by 20.1 million and 27.9 million shares, respectively, in Q3 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Chevron completed the acquisition of Hess Corporation for $53 billion in an all-stock deal in July 2025, securing a 30% stake in Guyana's Stabroek Block and Bakken assets.
- Chevron acquired PDC Energy for $7.6 billion in an all-stock deal in 2023.
- In February 2022, Chevron acquired Renewable Energy Group (REG) for $3.1 billion, expanding its biofuels production in the U.S.
Capital Expenditures
- Chevron's organic capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be in the range of $18 billion to $19 billion, with approximately $17 billion allocated to upstream spending, focusing on U.S. shale assets ($6 billion) and global offshore projects ($7 billion).
- For 2025, the organic capital expenditure range was $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion, including about $1.5 billion dedicated to lowering carbon intensity and growing new energies businesses.
- Chevron's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 were $72.458 billion.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Should You Pay Attention To Chevron Stock's Momentum? | 03/04/2026 | |
| How Does Chevron Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 01/07/2026 | |
| How Low Can Chevron Stock Really Go? | 01/07/2026 | |
| Chevron Stock Jumps 5.1% In A Day, Now Is Not The Time To Buy The Stock | 01/06/2026 | |
| CVX Stock Surges 9.2% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Venezuela Catalyst | 01/06/2026 | |
| Chevron Earnings Notes | 12/25/2025 | |
| Chevron vs T-Mobile US: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Chevron vs ConocoPhillips: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than CVX Stock: Pay Less Than Chevron To Get More From UNH, DIS | 08/12/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 03/19/2026 | |
| Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 03/12/2026 | |
| Where Will Oil Prices Be On March 31? | 03/09/2026 | |
| What Happens When Oil Hits $150? | 03/09/2026 | |
| Does Chevron Stock Have More Upside? | 03/04/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CVX.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12262025 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 82.3% | 82.3% | -2.1% |
| 12122025 | NOV | NOV | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 23.6% | 23.6% | -6.5% |
| 12122025 | RIG | Transocean | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 56.9% | 56.9% | -7.0% |
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.6% | 31.6% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 41.7% | 41.7% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 185.68 |
| Mkt Cap | 112.3 |
| Rev LTM | 132,538 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,555 |
| FCF LTM | 6,136 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,849 |
| CFO LTM | 14,024 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 15,153 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 112.3 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 21.1 |
| P/CFO | 12.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 34.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 33.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 41.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 88.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 35.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 32.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 24.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 10.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $198.61 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 385.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $178.01 | $156.22 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 11.6% | 27.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 23.3% | 25.0% |
| Downside Capture | -115.88 | 10.30 |
| Upside Capture | 50.02 | 34.85 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -5.1% | 48.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.09 | 0.21 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| Up Beta | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| Down Beta | 1.92 | 1.21 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 1.16 | 0.92 |
| Up Capture | 19% | 65% | 49% | 8% | 27% | 13% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 37 | 68 | 139 | 409 |
| Down Capture | -138% | -150% | -110% | -56% | 27% | 61% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 13 | 24 | 56 | 112 | 343 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CVX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 30.9% | 24.9% | 1.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 31.5% | 24.7% | 1.06 | 91.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.7% | 18.9% | 0.73 | 48.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 62.0% | 26.4% | 1.81 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.3% | 17.3% | 0.85 | 57.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 16.1% | 0.08 | 42.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -12.1% | 44.3% | -0.16 | 17.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CVX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 17.1% | 25.0% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 21.2% | 26.1% | 0.74 | 90.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.4% | 17.0% | 0.57 | 39.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.6% | 17.3% | 1.07 | 12.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.0% | 0.45 | 56.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 18.8% | 0.13 | 29.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.0% | 56.7% | 0.31 | 12.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CVX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 12.6% | 29.0% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 11.1% | 29.4% | 0.41 | 91.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.6% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 57.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.1% | 15.7% | 0.75 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 53.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 47.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 13.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/30/2026 | 3.3% | 4.7% | 11.8% |
| 10/31/2025 | 2.7% | -0.4% | -1.0% |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.2% | 1.0% | 7.1% |
| 5/2/2025 | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2.4% |
| 1/31/2025 | -4.6% | -2.8% | -1.0% |
| 11/1/2024 | 2.9% | 5.3% | 10.1% |
| 8/2/2024 | -2.7% | -5.3% | -2.0% |
| 4/26/2024 | 0.4% | -2.8% | -3.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 1.6% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -2.8% | -2.5% |
| Max Positive | 8.9% | 5.3% | 28.6% |
| Max Negative | -6.7% | -10.0% | -12.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gustavson, Jeff B | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 150.27 | 9,325 | 1,401,283 | 251,705 | Form |
| 2 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 11242025 | 150.75 | 275,000 | 41,456,131 | 170,052,296 | Form | |
| 3 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 11242025 | 150.16 | 275,000 | 41,293,418 | 128,091,433 | Form | |
| 4 | Knowles, Alana K | VP and Controller | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 160.00 | 3,978 | 636,480 | 188,960 | Form |
| 5 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 8262025 | 158.30 | 375,000 | 59,363,550 | 222,105,952 | Form |
CVX Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The risk-reward is unattractive with a probability-adjusted skew of 0.66x. The Alpha thesis (volume growth) is compelling but is mathematically insufficient to offset the high-probability Anti-Alpha thesis (cyclical price decline). The 'CONTESTED' moat and 'WEAK' sector trend create a negative setup where macro headwinds are likely to overwhelm company-specific execution. The investment is a bet on a commodity price recovery, which currently has unfavorable odds.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityChevron's revenue and profitability are directly tied to the volatile prices of crude oil and natural gas, making it a price-taker. The business model is described as 'The "Commodity" Extractor', and the primary risk is a commodity price crash. This aligns perfectly with the Cyclical/Commodity archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is that Chevron's operational execution in a capital-heavy industry will drive superior shareholder returns, even in a flat-to-down commodity price environment. The market is rewarding the company for its volume-led growth, which is less dependent on volatile energy prices.
- Projected production growth of 7-10% for 2026, driven by Hess acquisition and major project startups.
- Record 2025 production levels, demonstrating strong operational momentum.
- Stated dividend and capex breakeven of below $50/barrel Brent, providing downside protection.
- The market reacted positively to the latest earnings report, focusing on record production and cost cuts despite a revenue miss caused by lower oil prices.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is a cyclical downturn in energy prices driven by a market surplus. The combination of resilient non-OPEC production and softening demand from developed economies and China threatens to push crude oil prices below levels needed to meet consensus earnings forecasts.
- Market balance outlook for 2026 is 'Bearish', with global production expected to exceed demand.
- Consensus EPS estimates for FY26 have already been cut by 11.8% over the last 90 days due to a weaker price outlook.
- China's manufacturing PMI for January 2026 fell into contraction, signaling weakening demand from a key consumer.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Worldwide Net Oil-Equivalent Production | Meet or exceed 7-10% YoY growth guidance for 2026 | This is the primary driver of the 'Alpha' thesis. Failure to deliver the guided volume growth would invalidate the argument that operational execution can offset macro weakness. |
| Brent Crude Spot Price | Sustained break below $60/barrel | This is the trigger for the 'Anti-Alpha' thesis. While the company's breakeven is below $50, a price below $60 would cause significant negative earnings revisions and pressure the stock. |
| Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Quarterly) | Quarterly FCF falling below the level required to cover dividend payments | A key part of the bull thesis is the stability of shareholder returns. A decline in FCF that threatens the dividend would remove a major pillar of support for the stock. |
Operational Growth vs. Macro Headwinds
BULL VIEW
Bulls are betting that volume growth (7-10% in 2026), driven by the Hess acquisition and Permian execution, will lead to superior free cash flow, outweighing price volatility.
CORE TENSION
Can record production growth and cost discipline offset the negative impact of weakening commodity prices and softening global demand?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Consensus earnings estimates for FY26 have been cut by 11.8% in the last 90 days, and Q4 2025 adjusted free cash flow fell 47.5% YoY, showing macro pressures are hitting the bottom line.
BEAR VIEW
Bears are hedging against a commodity price drop, citing oversupply, weakening Chinese demand (Jan PMI < 50), and declining analyst estimates as signs of a cyclical downturn.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Watch: Impact of lower commodity prices on margins and Free Cash Flow generation. Any change to production growth guidance (currently 7-10%). |
Monthly (Next 30-90 days critical) | Global Manufacturing PMI Data Releases Watch: China's official manufacturing PMI and the global composite index. A sustained reading below 50 signals contraction. |
Anytime | Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Updates Watch: News reports of further disruptions (weather, political) at the Novorossiysk terminal, which handles Tengiz production. |
Q2-Q4 2026 | Updated Capex Guidance Re: EPA Methane Rules Watch: Specific line-item increase in capex guidance for 'environmental compliance' to meet new EPA methane regulations. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
8/22/2025 | Tropical Storm System Enters Gulf of Mexico Details: A tropical storm system entering the Gulf of Mexico raised concerns about potential short-term production shut-ins, causing a slight increase in oil prices and energy stocks. | Modest 1.7% gain $153.83 -> $156.43 |
9/2/2025 | Start of Fall Refining Maintenance Season Details: As the fall refinery maintenance season began, concerns over tightening supply of refined products provided a modest tailwind for integrated producers like Chevron. | Modest 0.8% gain $158.82 -> $160.04 |
10/31/2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Chevron reported record production of 4.1 million BOE per day, a 21% YoY increase, largely driven by the recent Hess acquisition. | Rose significantly by 2.7% $151.82 -> $155.97 |
12/3/2025 | 2026 Capex Budget Announcement Details: Chevron announced a 2026 capital expenditure budget of $18 to $19 billion, signaling disciplined spending focused on high-return projects. | Modest 0.9% gain $150.25 -> $151.59 |
1/30/2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: Despite lower oil prices, Chevron's stock rose as investors focused on record full-year production, successful Hess integration, and a 7-10% production growth forecast for 2026. | Rose significantly by 3.3% $171.19 -> $176.90 |
2/5/2026 | Senior Leadership Reshuffle Details: Chevron announced the retirement of three senior executives and a reorganization of its leadership team, partly to integrate Hess Corporation personnel. | Modest 0.9% gain $179.23 -> $180.86 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The Bearish sentiment, driven by significant macro headwinds, and Low near-term visibility override the company's operational strengths, mandating a cautious, watchlist-sized position until the commodity outlook improves.
Diversification Alternatives
COP
SECTORCOP offers a lower breakeven cost (~$30s/barrel vs. CVX's ~$50/bbl), providing greater cash flow resilience in a lower oil price environment, which is the primary risk for CVX.
DVN
SECTOROffers a 'fixed-plus-variable' dividend framework that directly returns a high percentage of free cash flow to shareholders, appealing to investors seeking direct commodity price exposure.
Chevron is transforming from a pure-play oil and gas producer into a more resilient, production-growth-oriented energy major, leveraging the Hess acquisition to drive significant volume growth in Guyana and the Permian basin while maintaining capital discipline.
Filter all news through the lens of production growth, capital discipline, and shareholder returns, while monitoring the impact of volatile commodity prices.
Production growth guidance of 7-10% for FY2026 being met or exceeded; successful integration of Hess assets driving higher-than-expected synergies; continued dividend growth and share repurchases; project startups in Guyana and the Eastern Mediterranean proceeding on schedule.
A significant drop in Brent crude prices below $60/barrel impacting free cash flow; geopolitical instability in key production areas like Venezuela or the Eastern Mediterranean causing operational shutdowns; unexpected operational issues or project delays at major assets like TCO in Kazakhstan.
Short-term oil price fluctuations; minor quarterly misses or beats on revenue consensus that are driven by commodity timing; non-core asset sales or acquisitions unless they materially impact production guidance.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is re-rating Chevron based on its ability to deliver record production volumes and strong free cash flow growth despite a lower oil price environment. The key driver is the successful integration of Hess, which added 261 MBOED in 2025 and provides a long-term growth platform in Guyana's Stabroek Block. This production growth, combined with a projected 7-10% increase in 2026 and a disciplined capex budget of $18-$19 billion, is expected to fuel substantial shareholder returns.
Upstream (Exploration & Production)
$12822000.0B TTM (81% of Total) · 25% MarginWhat It Is
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from assets in the Permian Basin, Gulf of Mexico, Guyana (Stabroek Block), and Australia.
Who Pays & How
Global commodity markets, refineries (including Chevron's own downstream segment), and utilities purchase fungible oil and gas products. There is no significant customer concentration; buyers choose suppliers based on prevailing market prices and logistical availability.
Competition
Downstream (Refining & Chemicals)
$3022000.0B TTM (19% of Total) · 6% MarginWhat It Is
Gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, and commodity petrochemicals.
Who Pays & How
Wholesale and retail fuel customers, and industrial users of chemicals and lubricants. Customers pay for finished products, with pricing based on the 'crack spread' – the difference between the cost of crude oil and the market price of refined products.
Competition
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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