Chevron (CVX)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $194.85 | Market Cap: $385.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Chevron (CVX)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $194.85Market Cap: $385.8 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.4% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 31 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 41 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include US LNG, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -19% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.9% Key risksCVX key risks include [1] increasing regulatory pressures, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 31 Bil, FCF LTM is 14 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 41 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include US LNG, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -19% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.9% |
| Key risksCVX key risks include [1] increasing regulatory pressures, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Chevron (CVX) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Chevron reported a significant decline in its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings compared to the prior year, coupled with a substantial revenue miss and negative free cash flow. For the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, Chevron's reported earnings were $2.2 billion ($1.11 per diluted share), a notable decrease from $3.5 billion ($2.00 per diluted share) in fiscal Q1 2025. While adjusted earnings per share of $1.41 beat analyst estimates by $0.24, the company's revenue of $48.61 billion fell short of consensus expectations by over $4 billion. Additionally, Chevron experienced its first negative free cash flow quarter since 2020, with free cash flow falling to -$1.55 billion, primarily due to $3 billion in unfavorable timing effects related to inventory valuation and mark-to-market losses on paper derivative positions.
2. Global oil prices experienced significant volatility and a notable decline during fiscal Q2 2026. While WTI crude oil prices initially peaked at $112.84 on April 7, 2026, and Brent crude reached $114.47 in Q2, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, these gains were not sustained. Towards the end of fiscal Q2 2026, oil prices fell sharply from an April peak of $113 to below $70 per barrel by June 30, following an Iran ceasefire and the lifting of a naval blockade. This substantial drop in commodity prices during the latter half of the quarter likely put considerable downward pressure on Chevron's stock price.
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Chevron (CVX) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Chevron reported a significant decline in its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings compared to the prior year, coupled with a substantial revenue miss and negative free cash flow. For the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, Chevron's reported earnings were $2.2 billion ($1.11 per diluted share), a notable decrease from $3.5 billion ($2.00 per diluted share) in fiscal Q1 2025. While adjusted earnings per share of $1.41 beat analyst estimates by $0.24, the company's revenue of $48.61 billion fell short of consensus expectations by over $4 billion. Additionally, Chevron experienced its first negative free cash flow quarter since 2020, with free cash flow falling to -$1.55 billion, primarily due to $3 billion in unfavorable timing effects related to inventory valuation and mark-to-market losses on paper derivative positions.
2. Global oil prices experienced significant volatility and a notable decline during fiscal Q2 2026. While WTI crude oil prices initially peaked at $112.84 on April 7, 2026, and Brent crude reached $114.47 in Q2, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, these gains were not sustained. Towards the end of fiscal Q2 2026, oil prices fell sharply from an April peak of $113 to below $70 per barrel by June 30, following an Iran ceasefire and the lifting of a naval blockade. This substantial drop in commodity prices during the latter half of the quarter likely put considerable downward pressure on Chevron's stock price.
3. Insider selling activity, particularly by a key director, exceeded $5 million during the period. John B. Hess, a Director at Chevron, conducted significant stock sales. On May 8, 2026, he sold 195,000 shares for approximately $36.03 million. Later that month, on May 22, 2026, he sold an additional 380,000 shares for approximately $73.41 million. These large-scale insider sales, totaling over $109 million within fiscal Q2 2026, could have been perceived by investors as a lack of confidence from within the company, contributing to negative sentiment and downward pressure on the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.0% change in CVX stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 205.02 | 194.79 | -5.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 184,432 | 185,887 | 0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.7% | 5.9% | -11.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.2 | 35.0 | 5.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,991 | 1,980 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVX | -5.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | -53.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | -2.7% | 94.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.2% change in CVX stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 54.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 149.56 | 194.79 | 30.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 186,979 | 185,887 | -0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.8% | 5.9% | -13.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.7 | 35.0 | 54.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,939 | 1,980 | -2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVX | 30.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | -37.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 34.2% | 91.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 41.7% change in CVX stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 128.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 137.43 | 194.79 | 41.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 192,935 | 185,887 | -3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.1% | 5.9% | -27.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.3 | 35.0 | 128.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,745 | 1,980 | -11.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 41.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVX | 41.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | -20.9% |
| Sector (XLE) | 43.9% | 89.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 40.5% change in CVX stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 377.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 138.68 | 194.79 | 40.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 232,245 | 185,887 | -20.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.4% | 5.9% | -61.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.3 | 35.0 | 377.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,892 | 1,980 | -4.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVX | 40.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 24.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 60.6% | 89.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CVX Return | 46% | 58% | -14% | 1% | 10% | 30% | 190% |
| Peers Return | 51% | 75% | 13% | -4% | 17% | 62% | 443% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CVX Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 70% | 53% | 45% | 67% | 71% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CVX Max Drawdown | -13% | -25% | -22% | -15% | -21% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -30% | -22% | -30% | -24% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XOM, COP, MPC, VLO, PSX. See CVX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CVX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -10.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 347 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Chevron's stock fell -14.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.6% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | CVX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 347 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 479 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 642 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Chevron's stock fell -14.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 17.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Chevron (CVX)
Chevron Corporation (CVX) is a global integrated energy and chemicals company engaged in various stages of the energy value chain. It primarily operates through two core segments: Upstream, which focuses on the initial sourcing and production of energy resources, and Downstream, which processes and distributes refined products and chemicals to end-users.
The Upstream segment is responsible for the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas worldwide. This includes processing, liquefaction, and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as moving crude oil through an extensive pipeline network. This segment's main products are crude oil, natural gas, and LNG, primarily serving global energy markets, industrial users, and other energy companies.
Chevron's Downstream segment refines crude oil into a wide range of petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are then marketed to consumers and businesses. It also manufactures and sells lubricants, renewable fuels, and various commodity petrochemicals, including plastics and fuel additives. This segment caters to diverse markets including transportation, agriculture, industrial manufacturing, and everyday consumers.
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Chevron is like ExxonMobil for global oil and gas.
Chevron is like Shell for integrated energy and chemicals.
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- Crude Oil: Explored, developed, produced, and transported globally.
- Natural Gas: Explored, developed, produced, transported, stored, and marketed worldwide.
- Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Processed, liquefied, transported, and regasified for global energy markets.
- Petroleum Products: Refined from crude oil into fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
- Lubricants: Manufactured and marketed for automotive, industrial, and marine applications.
- Renewable Fuels: Produced and marketed as part of its energy transition efforts.
- Commodity Petrochemicals and Plastics: Manufactured and marketed for diverse industrial uses.
- Fuel and Lubricant Additives: Produced and marketed to improve product performance.
- Gas-to-Liquids (GTL) Products: Manufactured from natural gas using advanced conversion technology.
- Energy Exploration & Production Services: Involves the discovery, development, and extraction of crude oil and natural gas reserves.
- Energy Transportation & Logistics Services: Provides transportation for crude oil, natural gas, LNG, and refined products through various networks.
- Natural Gas Marketing & Storage Services: Offers solutions for marketing and storing natural gas.
- Financial Services: Includes cash management and debt financing operations.
- Insurance Operations: Provides internal and external insurance-related services.
- Real Estate Activities: Involves the management and development of real estate assets.
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Chevron Corporation (CVX) primarily operates in a business-to-business (B2B) model, serving a diverse global customer base across its integrated energy and chemicals operations. Due to the commodity nature of many of its products and its broad market reach, Chevron typically does not disclose a specific list of its major customers in its public filings. However, based on its business segments, Chevron's major customers generally include large companies in the following categories:
- Airlines: Major air carriers are significant purchasers of jet fuel. Examples of public companies in this category include Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) and United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL).
- Electric and Gas Utilities: These companies purchase natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for power generation, heating, and distribution. Examples of public utilities include PG&E Corporation (PCG) and Sempra Energy (SRE).
- Industrial and Chemical Manufacturers: Companies across various industrial sectors are buyers of petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. Examples of public companies in the chemical sector include Dow Inc. (DOW) and LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB).
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Michael K. Wirth
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
Michael Wirth has served as Chairman and CEO of Chevron Corporation since 2018. He joined Chevron in 1982 as a design engineer and has held various leadership positions across the company's Downstream and Chemicals, Midstream and Development, and Global Supply and Trading operations over his more than four-decade career. Wirth holds a bachelor's degree in chemical engineering from the University of Colorado, Boulder. There is no information available to indicate that he founded or managed other companies, sold companies he was previously involved with to an acquirer, or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.
Eimear P. Bonner
Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Eimear P. Bonner became Chevron's Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on March 1, 2024. She is responsible for audit, controllership, investor relations, tax, and treasury activities worldwide. Bonner joined Chevron in 1998 as an offshore petroleum engineer in the United Kingdom. Her career at Chevron includes roles such as President of the Chevron Technical Center and Chief Technology Officer, and General Director of Tengizchevroil (TCO), a Chevron joint venture in Kazakhstan. She holds a bachelor's degree in chemical engineering from Queen's University Belfast and master's degrees in advanced chemical engineering and petroleum engineering from Imperial College, London. There is no information available to indicate that she founded or managed other companies, sold companies she was previously involved with to an acquirer, or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.
Mark A. Nelson
Vice Chairman, Executive Vice President, Oil, Products & Gas
Mark A. Nelson is Vice Chairman and Executive Vice President of Oil, Products & Gas for Chevron Corporation. In this role, he is responsible for the entire value chain, focusing on integrated capital allocation, asset class excellence, and value chain optimization. Nelson joined Chevron U.S.A. Inc. in 1985 as an engineer and has held numerous leadership positions across various segments of the business, including executive vice president of Downstream & Chemicals, vice president of Midstream, Strategy & Policy, and president of International Products. He holds a bachelor's degree in civil engineering from California Polytechnic State University.
R. Hewitt Pate
Chief Legal Officer
R. Hewitt Pate has served as Vice President and General Counsel (Chief Legal Officer) of Chevron Corporation since 2009. He directs the company's worldwide legal affairs and is a member of its Executive Committee. Prior to joining Chevron, Pate was a partner at Hunton & Williams LLP, where he headed the firm's Global Competition practice. He also served as Assistant Attorney General for the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice from 2003 to 2005, and as Deputy Assistant Attorney General from 2001 to 2003. He earned his bachelor's degree from the University of North Carolina and his law degree from the University of Virginia.
Kevin Lyon
Chief Strategy Officer
Kevin Lyon is the Chief Strategy Officer for Chevron Corporation, a position he assumed effective March 1, 2026. In this role, he leads the development of the company's enterprise strategy, overseeing capital allocation, enterprise portfolio optimization, and sustainability initiatives. Lyon joined Chevron in 1988 and has held senior leadership positions across downstream, midstream, and upstream operations in various international locations. Most recently, he led Chevron's integration of Hess. He holds a bachelor of science in electrical and electronic engineering from the University of Wyoming.
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- Commodity Price Volatility: Chevron's financial performance is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global prices of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Extended periods of low prices, driven by factors such as oversupply or reduced demand due to economic conditions and the energy transition, can significantly impact the company's earnings, cash flows, and capital expenditure programs.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Operational Disruptions: As a global energy company, Chevron's operations are exposed to geopolitical risks, including conflicts, civil unrest, and political instability in regions where it operates (e.g., the Middle East, Venezuela, Kazakhstan). These tensions can lead to supply chain disruptions, operational interruptions (such as the shutdown of facilities), and potential changes in regulatory environments, directly affecting production volumes and project economics.
- Energy Transition and Regulatory/Environmental Pressures: The accelerating global shift towards lower-carbon energy sources and increasing regulatory scrutiny on greenhouse gas emissions and climate change pose significant challenges. This includes the pressure to adopt cleaner energy solutions, comply with evolving environmental policies, and achieve ambitious ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) targets. Failure to adapt to these trends can result in increased operational costs, limitations on future development, and reputational damage.
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Accelerated global energy transition and decarbonization efforts, driven by policy shifts, technological advancements in renewable energy and electric vehicles, and changing consumer and investor preferences, which threaten the long-term demand for Chevron's core fossil fuel products and associated infrastructure.
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Chevron (symbol: CVX) operates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services:
- Crude Oil: The global crude oil market size is projected to reach approximately $3,188.67 billion in 2026. In terms of volume, the global crude oil market reached approximately 101.40 million barrels per day (MB/d) in 2025.
- Natural Gas: The global natural gas market size is estimated to be $1,591.93 billion in 2026.
- Refined Petroleum Products: The global refined petroleum products market size is projected to grow from $3,128.22 billion in 2025 to $3,254.8 billion in 2026. Asia-Pacific was the largest region in this market in 2025.
- Lubricants: The global lubricants market size was valued at USD 178.98 billion in 2025 and is projected to be worth USD 182.53 billion in 2026. Asia Pacific dominated the global lubricants market with a market share of 36.80% in 2025. The U.S. lubricants market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 18.82 billion by 2032.
- Renewable Fuels: The global Renewable Fuel Market size is estimated at USD 136.66 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 276.31 billion by 2030. Specifically, the global renewable diesel market was estimated at USD 25.8 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 27.3 billion in 2026 and USD 57.9 billion by 2035. The North America renewable diesel market alone accounted for USD 12.4 billion in 2025.
- Petrochemicals and Plastics: The global petrochemical market size was calculated at USD 700.10 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase from USD 743.50 billion in 2026 to approximately USD 1,257.50 billion by 2035. Asia Pacific dominated the petrochemicals market with a market share of 52.50% in 2025.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Chevron (CVX) over the next 2-3 years:
- Increased Oil and Gas Production: Chevron anticipates increasing its overall oil and gas production by 2% to 3% annually through 2030, with a projected year-over-year production growth of 7% to 10% in 2026, excluding asset sales. This growth is expected from high-margin assets, particularly in the Permian Basin, where output is targeted to increase by 9% to 10% in 2025. Significant contributions are also expected from offshore projects in Guyana, the Gulf of America, and the Eastern Mediterranean.
- Hess Acquisition and Synergy Realization: The acquisition of Hess Corporation is a significant driver, projected to add approximately 465,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) to Chevron's production. The deal also aims to achieve substantial cost synergies, initially targeting $1 billion, and subsequently boosted to $1.5 billion, coupled with structural cost reductions of $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of 2026. This acquisition grants Chevron a 30% interest in Guyana's Stabroek Block, a low-cost, high-growth asset.
- Cost Reduction and Capital Discipline: Chevron is focused on achieving structural cost reductions of $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of 2026. This commitment to capital discipline and efficiency gains is expected to improve net margins and free cash flow, indirectly supporting revenue growth by enhancing overall profitability.
- Strategic Project Start-ups and Ramp-ups: The company expects revenue growth from several major projects that are starting up or ramping up. These include the Future Growth Project at Tengiz, the start-up of Ballymore and Whale, and the ramp-up of Anchor in the Gulf of America. Additionally, projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, such as the Leviathan capacity expansion, Tamar optimization, and Aphrodite entering Front-End Engineering Design (FEED), are anticipated to contribute to increased earnings and free cash flow.
- New Energy Ventures: Chevron is diversifying its operations by venturing into new energy solutions. The company plans to launch its first AI-powered data center project in West Texas, targeting operational status by 2027. This initiative represents a step towards expanding revenue streams beyond traditional oil and gas.
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Share Repurchases
- Chevron expects to repurchase between $10 billion and $20 billion of shares annually through 2030.
- In 2024, Chevron repurchased $15.23 billion in stock, following $14.94 billion in 2023 and $11.26 billion in 2022.
- In the first quarter of 2025, share buybacks totaled $3.9 billion, with plans for $2.5 billion to $3 billion in the second quarter of 2025.
Share Issuance
- Chevron issued approximately 301 million shares of common stock to Hess Corporation stockholders upon the completion of the Hess acquisition in July 2025.
- Shares were issued to PDC Energy shareholders as part of the acquisition, with 0.4638 of a Chevron share exchanged for each PDC share.
- Chevron's shares outstanding increased to 1.997 billion by the end of 2025, representing a 9.91% increase year-over-year.
Inbound Investments
- BlackRock and Vanguard increased their Chevron holdings by 20.1 million and 27.9 million shares, respectively, in Q3 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Chevron completed the acquisition of Hess Corporation for $53 billion in an all-stock deal in July 2025, securing a 30% stake in Guyana's Stabroek Block and Bakken assets.
- Chevron acquired PDC Energy for $7.6 billion in an all-stock deal in 2023.
- In February 2022, Chevron acquired Renewable Energy Group (REG) for $3.1 billion, expanding its biofuels production in the U.S.
Capital Expenditures
- Chevron's organic capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be in the range of $18 billion to $19 billion, with approximately $17 billion allocated to upstream spending, focusing on U.S. shale assets ($6 billion) and global offshore projects ($7 billion).
- For 2025, the organic capital expenditure range was $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion, including about $1.5 billion dedicated to lowering carbon intensity and growing new energies businesses.
- Chevron's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 were $72.458 billion.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 200.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 119.2 |
| Rev LTM | 134,934 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,480 |
| FCF LTM | 5,778 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,090 |
| CFO LTM | 13,707 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,479 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 19.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -21.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 119.2 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.4 |
| P/EBIT | 14.0 |
| P/E | 20.8 |
| P/CFO | 13.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 17.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 36.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 58.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 87.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 17.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 29.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 40.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 34.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downstream | 142,410 | 157,847 | 161,625 | 172,308 | 111,490 |
| Upstream | 88,379 | 87,768 | 83,920 | 63,293 | 43,992 |
| All Other | 581 | 617 | 597 | 116 | 124 |
| Intersegment revenue elimination | -46,938 | -52,818 | -49,229 | ||
| Total | 184,432 | 193,414 | 196,913 | 235,717 | 155,606 |
| $ Mil | 2007 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 14,816 | |
| Downstream | 3,502 | |
| Chemicals | 396 | -128 |
| Exploration and Production | 4,312 | |
| Refining, Marketing and Transportation | 1,814 | |
| Total | 18,714 | 5,998 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 12,822 | 18,602 | 17,438 | 30,284 | 15,818 |
| Downstream | 3,022 | 1,727 | 6,137 | 8,155 | 2,914 |
| All Other | -3,545 | -2,668 | -2,206 | -2,974 | -3,107 |
| Total | 12,299 | 17,661 | 21,369 | 35,465 | 15,625 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 256,975 | 188,483 | 194,805 | 183,105 | 184,412 |
| Downstream | 55,243 | 56,770 | 54,488 | 53,221 | 45,224 |
| All Other | 11,794 | 11,685 | 12,339 | 21,383 | 9,899 |
| Total | 324,012 | 256,938 | 261,632 | 257,709 | 239,535 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $194.79 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 385.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $182.58 | $172.25 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 6.7% | 13.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.0% | 22.6% |
| Downside Capture | -127.58 | -71.38 |
| Upside Capture | -77.65 | -25.38 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -48.5% | -22.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.61 | -0.84 | -0.95 | -0.65 | -0.34 | 0.39 |
| Up Beta | -2.22 | -2.35 | -1.68 | -1.42 | -0.78 | 0.36 |
| Down Beta | -0.48 | -0.28 | -0.18 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.81 |
| Up Capture | -78% | -89% | -72% | -33% | -12% | 5% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 30 | 72 | 137 | 410 |
| Down Capture | 28% | -23% | -58% | -124% | -92% | 36% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 33 | 53 | 115 | 341 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CVX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 32.7% | 22.6% | 1.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 40.8% | 20.9% | 1.54 | 89.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | -22.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 28.1% | 0.61 | -9.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.7% | 19.1% | 1.42 | 51.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 14.1% | 0.69 | 1.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.2% | 42.9% | -1.32 | 2.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CVX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 19.4% | 25.1% | 0.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 23.9% | 25.8% | 0.82 | 90.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 33.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 56.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 27.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.3% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 12.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CVX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 10.8% | 29.2% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.9% | 29.5% | 0.37 | 91.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 54.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 53.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 46.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.1% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 13.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/1/2026 | -1.4% | -5.6% | -3.0% |
| 1/30/2026 | 3.3% | 4.7% | 11.8% |
| 10/31/2025 | 2.7% | -0.4% | -1.0% |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.2% | 1.0% | 7.1% |
| 5/2/2025 | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2.4% |
| 1/31/2025 | -4.6% | -2.8% | -1.0% |
| 11/1/2024 | 2.9% | 5.3% | 10.1% |
| 8/2/2024 | -2.7% | -5.3% | -2.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 1.8% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 8.9% | 5.3% | 28.6% |
| Max Negative | -6.7% | -10.0% | -12.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/1/2026 | -1.4% | -5.6% | -3.0% |
| 1/30/2026 | 3.3% | 4.7% | 11.8% |
| 10/31/2025 | 2.7% | -0.4% | -1.0% |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.2% | 1.0% | 7.1% |
| 5/2/2025 | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2.4% |
| 1/31/2025 | -4.6% | -2.8% | -1.0% |
| 11/1/2024 | 2.9% | 5.3% | 10.1% |
| 8/2/2024 | -2.7% | -5.3% | -2.0% |
| 4/26/2024 | 0.4% | -2.8% | -3.6% |
| 2/2/2024 | 2.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| 10/27/2023 | -6.7% | -3.9% | -5.7% |
| 7/28/2023 | -0.5% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 4/28/2023 | 1.0% | -6.4% | -6.8% |
| 1/27/2023 | -4.4% | -10.0% | -12.5% |
| 10/28/2022 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| 7/29/2022 | 8.9% | 0.5% | 9.6% |
| 4/29/2022 | -3.2% | 2.8% | 11.1% |
| 1/28/2022 | -3.5% | -0.9% | 7.5% |
| 10/29/2021 | 1.2% | 0.3% | 2.7% |
| 7/30/2021 | -0.7% | -1.3% | -2.5% |
| 4/30/2021 | -3.6% | 2.0% | -1.7% |
| 1/29/2021 | -4.3% | -0.0% | 16.3% |
| 10/30/2020 | 1.0% | 4.9% | 28.6% |
| 7/31/2020 | -2.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 1.8% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 8.9% | 5.3% | 28.6% |
| Max Negative | -6.7% | -10.0% | -12.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/21/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/29/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 5222026 | 193.20 | 380,000 | 73,414,765 | 53,717,391 | Form | |
| 2 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 5082026 | 184.78 | 195,000 | 36,031,524 | 121,591,610 | Form | |
| 3 | Pate, R. Hewitt | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 213.30 | 40,200 | 8,574,857 | 1,842,528 | Form |
| 4 | Pate, R. Hewitt | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 192.12 | 47,200 | 9,068,064 | 1,644,163 | Form |
| 5 | Pate, R. Hewitt | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 188.65 | 58,000 | 10,941,854 | 1,614,489 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 5222026 | 193.20 | 380,000 | 73,414,765 | 53,717,391 | Form | |
| 2 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 5082026 | 184.78 | 195,000 | 36,031,524 | 121,591,610 | Form | |
| 3 | Pate, R. Hewitt | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 213.30 | 40,200 | 8,574,857 | 1,842,528 | Form |
| 4 | Pate, R. Hewitt | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 192.12 | 47,200 | 9,068,064 | 1,644,163 | Form |
| 5 | Pate, R. Hewitt | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 188.65 | 58,000 | 10,941,854 | 1,614,489 | Form |
| 6 | Bonner, Eimear P | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 190.60 | 17,400 | 3,316,440 | 1,606,186 | Form |
| 7 | Pate, R. Hewitt | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 186.06 | 35,475 | 6,600,564 | 1,592,322 | Form |
| 8 | Bonner, Eimear P | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 186.06 | 28,400 | 5,284,075 | 1,568,105 | Form |
| 9 | Gustavson, Jeff B | President, New Energies | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 186.04 | 6,667 | 1,240,325 | 691,322 | Form |
| 10 | Walz, Andrew Benjamin | President, DM&C | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 183.83 | 1,463 | Form | ||
| 11 | Knowles, Alana K | Controller | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 183.28 | 2,408 | Form | ||
| 12 | Booth, Thomas Ryder | Chief Technology & Eng Ofr | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 182.37 | 1,122 | Form | ||
| 13 | Booth, Thomas Ryder | Chief Technology & Eng Ofr | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 184.40 | 11,076 | 2,042,375 | 206,893 | Form |
| 14 | Walz, Andrew Benjamin | President, DM&C | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 183.40 | 666 | 122,144 | 268,314 | Form |
| 15 | Booth, Thomas Ryder | Chief Technology & Eng Ofr | Booth Family Trust | Sell | 2122026 | 184.77 | 5 | Form | ||
| 16 | Walz, Andrew Benjamin | President, DM&C | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 176.53 | 22,200 | 3,919,050 | 117,572 | Form |
| 17 | Booth, Thomas Ryder | Chief Technology & Eng Ofr | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 178.43 | 6,000 | 1,070,566 | 84,932 | Form |
| 18 | Nelson, Mark A | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 174.17 | 45,800 | 7,976,844 | 1,247,209 | Form |
| 19 | Bonner, Eimear P | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 175.01 | 32,100 | 5,617,731 | 764,081 | Form |
| 20 | Pate, R. Hewitt | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 176.40 | 41,134 | 7,256,038 | 735,412 | Form |
| 21 | Knowles, Alana K | Controller | Direct | Sell | 1152026 | 168.00 | 3,200 | 537,600 | 202,776 | Form |
| 22 | Gustavson, Jeff B | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 150.27 | 9,325 | 1,401,283 | 251,705 | Form |
| 23 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 11242025 | 150.16 | 275,000 | 41,293,418 | 128,091,433 | Form | |
| 24 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 11242025 | 150.75 | 275,000 | 41,456,131 | 170,052,296 | Form | |
| 25 | Knowles, Alana K | VP and Controller | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 160.00 | 3,978 | 636,480 | 188,960 | Form |
| 26 | Hess, John B | Trust | Sell | 8262025 | 158.30 | 375,000 | 59,363,550 | 222,105,952 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 26, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. | $127.2 Mil | 14.7% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $31.1 Mil | 11.0% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $36.8 Mil | 9.9% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Colrain Capital LLC | $24.1 Mil | 9.3% | 26 | ADD +19.8% | 13F |
| 59 North Capital Management, LP | $211.6 Mil | 6.3% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Turas Capital Management LP | $19.3 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $53.0 Mil | 4.4% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.0 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +6.0% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $5.8 Mil | 1.7% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Boothe Investment Group, Inc. | $5.0 Mil | 1.6% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $5.1 Mil | 1.4% | 40 | TRIM -67.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 North Capital Management, LP | $211.6 Mil | 6.3% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $31.1 Mil | 11.0% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Turas Capital Management LP | $19.3 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Colrain Capital LLC | $24.1 Mil | 9.3% | 26 | ADD +19.8% | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.0 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +6.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $25.9 Mil | 0.8% | 22 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Vantage Wealth | $18.6 Mil | 4.0% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Campbell Capital Management Inc | $7.2 Mil | 2.4% | 46 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $5.1 Mil | 1.4% | 40 | TRIM -67.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 North Capital Management, LP | $211.6 Mil | 6.3% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. | $127.2 Mil | 14.7% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $53.0 Mil | 4.4% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $36.8 Mil | 9.9% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $31.1 Mil | 11.0% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Colrain Capital LLC | $24.1 Mil | 9.3% | 26 | ADD +19.8% | 13F |
| Turas Capital Management LP | $19.3 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.0 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +6.0% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $5.8 Mil | 1.7% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $5.1 Mil | 1.4% | 40 | TRIM -67.7% | 13F |
| Boothe Investment Group, Inc. | $5.0 Mil | 1.6% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
CVX Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on peer-leading production growth of 15% in Q1 and firm guidance for 7-10% growth in 2026. This operational strength is currently masked by poor cash conversion. The thesis hinges on management delivering its guided unwind of timing effects in Q2, which would improve cash flow and validate the capital return policy.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Commodity ProducerVolume (Barrels of Oil Equivalent Produced) x Price (Global Commodity Prices) Upstream segment margins, driven by the spread between realized commodity prices and the cost of production from its portfolio of assets.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a powerful production ramp is underway, which should drive significant cash flow growth once temporary financial effects normalize.
- Worldwide net oil-equivalent production grew 15% year-over-year in Q1 2026.
- Full-year 2026 production is estimated to increase 7 to 10 percent over 2025.
- The company maintains a dividend and capex breakeven below $50 Brent.
- Share repurchases are guided to be between $2.5-$3.0 billion in Q2 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
Aggressive shareholder returns are being funded by debt, as free cash flow is insufficient. Net debt increased by in the last year, a trend that questions the sustainability of the capital allocation policy.
- The payout funding ratio is 0.57, with FCF of $13.8B vs. a $24B payout.
- Net debt is $40.1 billion, up from $25 billion a year earlier.
- Inventory grew 15.1% year-over-year in the latest quarter, outpacing 3.2% revenue growth.
- Q1 earnings were adversely affected by $2.9 billion due to timing effects.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Net Oil-Equivalent Production Growth | 3.86 million barrels per day in Q1 2026, representing 15% year-over-year growth - Accelerating | The strong year-over-year production growth is driven by the acquisition of Hess as well as organic growth in key areas like the Permian Basin and the Gulf of America. Management guidance for full-year 2026 is for a 7 to 10 percent increase over 2025. |
| Revenue Growth | +3.2% year-over-year for the latest reported quarter ended 6/30/2026 - Turning around | Revenue has inflected positively after two consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines. This turnaround is supported by both positive year-over-year and sequential growth, indicating a recovery in top-line performance. |
| Reserve Replacement Ratio | 158 percent (Full Year 2025) | Measures the extent to which the company is replacing the reserves it produces. A high ratio indicates the company is adding more reserves than it is depleting, securing future production potential. |
| U.S. Refinery Crude Unit Inputs | 1,054 thousand barrels per day (Q1 2026) | Represents the volume of crude oil processed by U.S. refineries, a key driver of Downstream revenue. High throughput indicates strong operational reliability and utilization. |
Production Growth vs. Cash Conversion
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on peer-leading 15% YoY production growth in Q1, believing this operational momentum will soon overwhelm temporary negative timing effects and generate the cash to fund returns.
CORE TENSION
Can guided 7-10% production growth fix a payout funding ratio of 0.57 before the $40.1 billion net debt balance forces a capital allocation change?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls, but requires patience. Management has a strong execution track record and a specific, dated forecast for cash flow to begin improving in Q2.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the 0.57 payout funding ratio and the rise in net debt as proof that the business is not generating enough cash, forcing it to choose between its buyback and its balance sheet.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Friday, July 31, 2026 | Negative Earnings Reaction to Q2 Results Watch: Commentary on the unwind of mark-to-market derivatives and LIFO inventory valuation effects from Q1. |
Friday, July 31, 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Chevron will hold its second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. |
10/21/2026 | Peer Reports Signal Sector-Wide Cost Inflation Watch: Peers Valero, Phillips 66, and ExxonMobil reporting higher-than-expected opex or capex guidance in their Q3 earnings. |
10/27/2026 | Peer Phillips 66 Earnings Watch: Peer Phillips 66 (PSX) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/29/2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Report Watch: Chevron's next scheduled earnings report is dated 10/29/2026. |
10/29/2026 | Peer ExxonMobil Earnings Report Watch: Peer ExxonMobil (XOM) is scheduled to report earnings on the same day as Chevron. |
second half of 2026 | Karachaganak Project Completion Watch: The Karachaganak Expansion Project Stage 1B development is expected to be completed. |
No set date | Geopolitical Production or Transport Disruption Watch: News flow on operations in the Eastern Mediterranean, Kazakhstan, and tanker traffic through regional chokepoints. |
No set date | Unsustainable Shareholder Payout Funding Watch: A significant increase in net debt or a reduction in the buyback program on the next earnings call. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-14 | Contract for Additional Hybrid Rigs Details: Ranger Energy Services announced a contract with Chevron's subsidiary Hess Corporation to deploy three additional ECHO hybrid workover rigs in the Lower 48 United States. | -0.3% $182.20 -> $181.60 |
2026-06-22 | Chevron Signs Power Agreement With Microsoft Details: Chevron announced a 20-year agreement with Microsoft to develop Project Kilby, a co-located power facility in West Texas for a Microsoft data center. | +1.4% $173.63 -> $175.98 |
2026-05-01 | First Quarter 2026 Results Reported Details: Chevron reported Q1 2026 earnings of $2.2 billion ($1.11 per share - diluted). The stock reaction was -1.0%. | -0.5% $191.56 -> $190.53 |
2026-04-13 | Venezuela Heavy Oil Position Consolidated Details: Chevron announced an asset swap with Petroleos de Venezuela, S. A. (PDVSA) to consolidate focus on strategic assets in the country. | -0.8% $186.84 -> $185.32 |
2026-03-11 | Hormuz Crisis Drives Oil Stocks Higher Details: Oil majors gained attention as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz led traders to reprice supply risk, sending benchmark crude prices sharply higher. | +5.7% $184.60 -> $195.18 |
2026-02-11 | Chevron Enters Libya With Block Award Details: Chevron entered Libya after being designated a winning bidder in the 2025 Libyan Bid Round, following a Memorandum of Understanding with the country's National Oil Corporation. | +0.1% $178.86 -> $178.99 |
2026-01-30 | Fourth Quarter 2025 Results Reported Details: Chevron reported Q4 2025 earnings. The stock reaction over two days was +2.0%. | +1.7% $167.99 -> $170.78 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: CVX trades at roughly 28% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (1.9x the market), around the 81st percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
XOM - ExxonMobil
Scale and Project DiversityExxonMobil offers greater scale, with revenue 1.8 times that of Chevron and significantly higher capital expenditure, providing exposure to the largest global energy projects.
COP - ConocoPhillips
Upstream Focus and MarginConocoPhillips is a more focused upstream producer and exhibits an operating margin of 18.1% compared to Chevron's 30.2%, offering a more direct play on hydrocarbon production efficiency.
A capital-disciplined commodity supermajor leveraging a high-graded upstream portfolio for production growth and shareholder returns, with profitability directly tied to the volatile global energy cycle.
Chevron is executing a strategy focused on growing high-margin oil and gas production from advantaged assets like the Permian and Guyana while maintaining strict capital and cost discipline. The recent Hess acquisition amplifies this upstream focus. The company's objective is to generate strong free cash flow to fund superior shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks) through commodity cycles, using its integrated model to capture margin opportunities.
Sustained high oil and gas prices, successful and on-schedule execution of major projects (e.g., Guyana FPSOs), and continued growth in shareholder distributions.
A sharp, sustained downturn in commodity prices, significant operational setbacks or project delays, or a strategic shift away from capital discipline and shareholder returns.
Short-term quarterly earnings volatility due to 'timing effects' from derivative accounting and inventory valuation, which management expects to unwind in subsequent periods.
Repricing Catalyst
Successful integration of the Hess acquisition, delivering guided synergies and production growth, which is expected to be cash flow accretive and drive industry-leading free cash flow growth.
Upstream
$88.4B TTM (48% of Total)What It Is
Sells crude oil and natural gas. Operations consist of exploring for, developing, producing, and transporting these resources, as well as activities related to liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Who Pays & How
Refineries, utilities, and other large energy consumers purchase crude oil and natural gas as essential feedstock for their operations and for energy generation. Pricing is determined by global supply and demand.
Competition
Downstream
$142.4B TTM (77% of Total)What It Is
Sells refined products including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as lubricants, additives, and petrochemicals. Customers are reached through a global marketing network under the Chevron, Texaco, and Caltex brands.
Who Pays & How
Industrial consumers, transportation companies, and individual consumers (via retailers) pay for fuels and other refined products. The business also manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals and additives for industrial uses.
Competition
All Other
$581M TTM (0% of Total)What It Is
Consists of worldwide cash management and debt financing activities, corporate administrative functions, insurance operations, real estate activities, and technology companies.
Who Pays & How
This segment primarily supports internal operations and does not have a significant external customer base.
Competition
Chevron — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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