Contango Ore (CTGO)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $26.78 | Market Cap: $331.5 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Contango Ore (CTGO)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $26.78Market Cap: $331.5 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -16 Mil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Resource Exploration & Development. Themes include Gold Mine Development. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 41x | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 133% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% | ||
| Key risksCTGO key risks include [1] permitting delays for its Johnson Tract project, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Resource Exploration & Development. Themes include Gold Mine Development. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -16 Mil |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 41x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 133% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% |
| Key risksCTGO key risks include [1] permitting delays for its Johnson Tract project, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CTGO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Contango Ore's (CTGO) stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025:
1. Merger with Dolly Varden Silver: On December 8, 2025, Contango ORE and Dolly Varden Silver announced a merger agreement aimed at creating a new North American high-grade, mid-tier silver and gold producer and developer. This strategic combination is a significant corporate event likely to drive investor interest and stock valuation.
2. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance: Contango ORE reported record high income from operations of $25 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, with its cash position increasing to $107 million. The company also achieved strong gold production of 17,057 ounces in Q3, staying on track for its 2025 guidance. Furthermore, the reported Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $2.04 significantly surpassed analyst forecasts of $0.465, representing a 338.71% surprise.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CTGO Return | -45% | 220% | -10% | -21% | -45% | 168% | 85% |
| Peers Return | 41% | -14% | -6% | -1% | 9% | 136% | 188% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CTGO Win Rate | 8% | 8% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 45% | 48% | 52% | 47% | 78% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CTGO Max Drawdown | -45% | 0% | -17% | -27% | -45% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -28% | -32% | -22% | -21% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CTGO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -52.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 603 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 714 days | 120 days |
Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM
In The Past
Contango Ore's stock fell -48.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2023. A -48.6% loss requires a 94.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Contango Ore Earnings Notes | ||
| With Contango Ore Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CTGO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.9% | 5.9% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 40.8% | 40.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.1% | 15.1% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.9% | 5.9% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 40.8% | 40.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.1% | 15.1% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Contango Ore
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 70.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 48.0 |
| Rev LTM | 6,057 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,146 |
| FCF LTM | 1,488 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 748 |
| CFO LTM | 3,574 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,469 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 35.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 23.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 38.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 43.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 31.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 43.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 48.0 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| P/EBIT | 16.2 |
| P/E | 14.2 |
| P/CFO | 9.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 18.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 36.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 119.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 143.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 22.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 102.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 66.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/14/2025 | 2.9% | -4.8% | |
| 8/14/2025 | -0.3% | -5.6% | 8.7% |
| 3/17/2025 | 12.3% | 1.7% | 30.0% |
| 11/14/2024 | -0.8% | 4.4% | -36.6% |
| 8/16/2024 | 4.6% | 4.3% | -0.3% |
| 3/14/2024 | 12.3% | -3.3% | 1.0% |
| 11/15/2023 | 1.9% | 14.0% | -11.3% |
| 5/17/2023 | -3.7% | -9.2% | 7.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 1.4% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.1% | -5.6% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 16.4% | 21.9% | 233.7% |
| Max Negative | -3.7% | -9.2% | -36.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11132025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3172025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3142024 | 10-KT 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9132023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2062023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8312022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2102022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |