Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.2%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 16%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -16 Mil
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Resource Exploration & Development. Themes include Gold Mine Development.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 41x
3   Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 133%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6%
5   Key risks
CTGO key risks include [1] permitting delays for its Johnson Tract project, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 16%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Resource Exploration & Development. Themes include Gold Mine Development.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.2%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59%
5 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
6 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -16 Mil
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 41x
8 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 133%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6%
10 Key risks
CTGO key risks include [1] permitting delays for its Johnson Tract project, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CTGO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Contango Ore's (CTGO) stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025:

1. Merger with Dolly Varden Silver: On December 8, 2025, Contango ORE and Dolly Varden Silver announced a merger agreement aimed at creating a new North American high-grade, mid-tier silver and gold producer and developer. This strategic combination is a significant corporate event likely to drive investor interest and stock valuation.

2. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance: Contango ORE reported record high income from operations of $25 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, with its cash position increasing to $107 million. The company also achieved strong gold production of 17,057 ounces in Q3, staying on track for its 2025 guidance. Furthermore, the reported Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $2.04 significantly surpassed analyst forecasts of $0.465, representing a 338.71% surprise.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CTGO Return-45%220%-10%-21%-45%168%85%
Peers Return41%-14%-6%-1%9%136%188%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CTGO Win Rate8%8%58%42%50%75% 
Peers Win Rate48%45%48%52%47%78% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CTGO Max Drawdown-45%0%-17%-27%-45%-10% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-28%-32%-22%-21%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCTGOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-52.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven112.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven603 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-36.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven57.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven714 days120 days

Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM


In The Past

Contango Ore's stock fell -48.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2023. A -48.6% loss requires a 94.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Contango Ore (CTGO)

Better Bets than Contango Ore (CTGO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CTGO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.9%5.9%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.3%0.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
40.8%40.8%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.1%15.1%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.9%5.9%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.3%0.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
40.8%40.8%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.1%15.1%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Contango Ore

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CTGOBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameContango.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Price26.9242.93209.059.5398.03166.5370.48
Mkt Cap0.355.840.32.9107.583.648.0
Rev LTM014,6041,5461,35221,50310,5686,057
Op Inc LTM-166,3281,0694269,3595,2233,146
FCF LTM502,750-8562266,1223,6451,488
FCF 3Y Avg141,372-161242,6362,041748
CFO LTM506,3551,3104559,2245,8373,574
CFO 3Y Avg144,6601,0563395,6163,8832,469

Growth & Margins

CTGOBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameContango.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Rev Chg LTM-18.4%41.1%68.1%26.6%35.2%35.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-8.5%7.7%26.7%23.9%26.0%23.9%
Rev Chg Q-23.2%76.9%38.3%20.0%41.9%38.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-5.6%15.9%5.4%4.5%9.4%5.6%
Op Mgn LTM-43.3%69.1%31.5%43.5%49.4%43.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-31.6%64.1%22.0%23.9%36.0%31.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-4.6%0.8%2.9%4.5%3.6%3.6%
CFO/Rev LTM-43.5%84.7%33.7%42.9%55.2%43.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-36.2%81.3%35.4%32.6%45.6%36.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-18.8%-55.4%16.7%28.5%34.5%18.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-10.1%4.6%11.7%13.8%22.7%11.7%

Valuation

CTGOBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameContango.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Cap0.355.840.32.9107.583.648.0
P/S-3.827.82.04.38.04.3
P/EBIT40.6-36.75.98.916.216.2
P/E-258.115.646.711.912.924.614.2
P/CFO6.68.832.86.010.014.59.4
Total Yield-0.4%7.8%2.4%8.4%9.0%4.9%6.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.4%0.3%0.0%1.2%0.8%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.6%-0.4%6.2%3.6%3.9%3.6%
D/E0.1-0.00.10.10.00.1
Net D/E-0.2--0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0

Returns

CTGOBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameContango.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
1M Rtn23.0%16.4%6.3%14.1%12.0%-0.7%13.1%
3M Rtn17.0%49.5%4.5%20.2%24.4%9.5%18.6%
6M Rtn30.3%103.1%24.2%38.1%68.6%35.1%36.6%
12M Rtn132.9%168.1%76.8%105.4%148.7%104.1%119.1%
3Y Rtn16.8%172.0%62.8%156.2%130.4%249.4%143.3%
1M Excs Rtn22.0%15.4%5.4%13.1%11.0%-1.7%12.1%
3M Excs Rtn10.4%43.2%1.2%17.6%21.9%5.9%14.0%
6M Excs Rtn16.6%89.4%10.5%24.5%54.9%21.4%22.9%
12M Excs Rtn118.9%142.9%60.9%82.1%127.5%85.6%102.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-59.0%104.4%-19.7%77.3%56.3%177.6%66.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity320,724
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-6.5%
Average Daily Volume102,404
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.13
Basic Shares Quantity12,378,494
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/14/20252.9%-4.8% 
8/14/2025-0.3%-5.6%8.7%
3/17/202512.3%1.7%30.0%
11/14/2024-0.8%4.4%-36.6%
8/16/20244.6%4.3%-0.3%
3/14/202412.3%-3.3%1.0%
11/15/20231.9%14.0%-11.3%
5/17/2023-3.7%-9.2%7.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131010
# Negative477
Median Positive1.9%1.4%8.0%
Median Negative-1.1%-5.6%-6.9%
Max Positive16.4%21.9%233.7%
Max Negative-3.7%-9.2%-36.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251113202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025813202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024317202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241114202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024514202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023314202410-KT 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023913202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023511202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022206202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022831202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022511202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021210202210-Q 12/31/2021