Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (7/24/2026): $112.66 | Market Cap: $445.2 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (7/24/2026): $112.66Market Cap: $445.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 21 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. | Key risksCSCO key risks include [1] market share erosion from intense competition in its core networking and cybersecurity businesses, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 21 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Key risksCSCO key risks include [1] market share erosion from intense competition in its core networking and cybersecurity businesses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock has gained about 45% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q3 2026 Performance and Robust Guidance. Cisco Systems (whose fiscal Q3 2026 ended on April 25, 2026) reported record revenue of $15.8 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst consensus estimates of $15.56 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.06 also surpassed estimates of $1.03. Furthermore, the company provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal Q4 2026, projecting revenue between $16.7 billion and $16.9 billion, with the midpoint nearly $1 billion higher than consensus, and raised its full fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance to between $62.8 billion and $63.0 billion.
2. Surging Demand for AI Infrastructure Solutions. A major catalyst was the significant increase in orders for Cisco's AI infrastructure solutions, particularly from hyperscale cloud providers. The company raised its fiscal year 2026 AI infrastructure order target by 80%, from an initial $5 billion to approximately $9 billion. This was supported by securing five new hyperscaler AI design wins in fiscal Q3 2026, with enterprise data center switching orders growing over 40% and the Acacia optics business (critical for AI optical interconnects) generating over $1 billion in orders and expected to grow over 200% in fiscal 2026.
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Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock has gained about 45% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q3 2026 Performance and Robust Guidance. Cisco Systems (whose fiscal Q3 2026 ended on April 25, 2026) reported record revenue of $15.8 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst consensus estimates of $15.56 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.06 also surpassed estimates of $1.03. Furthermore, the company provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal Q4 2026, projecting revenue between $16.7 billion and $16.9 billion, with the midpoint nearly $1 billion higher than consensus, and raised its full fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance to between $62.8 billion and $63.0 billion.
2. Surging Demand for AI Infrastructure Solutions. A major catalyst was the significant increase in orders for Cisco's AI infrastructure solutions, particularly from hyperscale cloud providers. The company raised its fiscal year 2026 AI infrastructure order target by 80%, from an initial $5 billion to approximately $9 billion. This was supported by securing five new hyperscaler AI design wins in fiscal Q3 2026, with enterprise data center switching orders growing over 40% and the Acacia optics business (critical for AI optical interconnects) generating over $1 billion in orders and expected to grow over 200% in fiscal 2026.
3. Strategic Shift and Acquisitions Focused on AI and Security. Cisco demonstrated a clear strategic pivot towards the burgeoning AI and security markets through a significant restructuring initiative, including a plan to lay off nearly 4,000 employees to reallocate resources towards AI, security, silicon, and optics. Concurrently, the company made several key acquisitions to enhance its AI and security capabilities, such as Astrix Security (May 2026) for identity protection and AI agent security, WideField Security (June 2026) to bolster Splunk's security operations center, and Galileo Technologies (April 2026) for AI observability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 46.7% change in CSCO stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.88 | 112.76 | 46.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59,054 | 60,746 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.8% | 19.7% | 5.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.5 | 37.3 | 35.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,955 | 3,952 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 46.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 46.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.5% | 38.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 34.3% | 46.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 48.5% change in CSCO stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 75.92 | 112.76 | 48.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 57,696 | 60,746 | 5.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.9% | 19.7% | 10.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.1 | 37.3 | 28.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,956 | 3,952 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 48.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 48.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.5% | 41.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 24.1% | 46.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 66.9% change in CSCO stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 36.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.57 | 112.76 | 66.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 55,623 | 60,746 | 9.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.6% | 19.7% | 11.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.4 | 37.3 | 36.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,972 | 3,952 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 66.9% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 66.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.5% | 40.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 41.5% | 46.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 137.7% change in CSCO stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 120.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.44 | 112.76 | 137.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54,897 | 60,746 | 10.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.9% | 19.7% | -5.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.9 | 37.3 | 120.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,089 | 3,952 | 3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 137.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 137.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.4% | 50.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 109.1% | 50.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CSCO Return | 46% | -22% | 9% | 21% | 33% | 48% | 195% |
| Peers Return | 77% | -19% | 66% | 51% | 6% | 113% | 716% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CSCO Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 67% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 42% | 65% | 65% | 60% | 71% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CSCO Max Drawdown | -10% | -36% | -17% | -13% | -17% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -36% | -23% | -30% | -41% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HPE, ANET, DELL, PANW, FTNT. See CSCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 756 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Cisco Systems's stock fell -17.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.1% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | CSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 756 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 62 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1127 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2076 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Cisco Systems's stock fell -17.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Cisco Systems, Inc. is a global technology company that designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol (IP) based networking and other related products essential for modern communications and information technology. At its core, Cisco provides the foundational infrastructure that enables the internet and various networks to function, allowing data to be transported, stored, and secured across different environments worldwide.
The company's product portfolio is diverse, spanning several critical areas. Its "Infrastructure Platforms" include core networking technologies like switches, routers, wireless solutions, and data center products, all designed to deliver comprehensive networking capabilities. Beyond networking hardware, Cisco offers "Collaboration Products" such as unified communications, video conferencing (TelePresence), and Internet of Things (IoT) software. Furthermore, it provides extensive "Security Products" covering network, cloud, email, and advanced threat protection, along with identity and access management. Cisco also supports its customers with a range of technical support and advanced services.
Cisco serves a broad and diverse customer base globally, including businesses of all sizes, public institutions, governments, and telecommunications service providers. It reaches these customers through a combination of direct sales and an extensive network of channel partners, including systems integrators, resellers, and distributors. Headquartered in San Jose, California, Cisco's operations and sales span the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, Japan, and China.
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- The IBM for business networking and digital infrastructure.
- The General Electric for the foundational technology of the internet and enterprise networks.
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- Networking Hardware: Cisco provides a full range of networking hardware, including switches, routers, wireless access points, and data center infrastructure, essential for building and maintaining digital networks.
- Collaboration Solutions: These products facilitate communication and teamwork, encompassing unified communications, TelePresence for high-definition video conferencing, and general conferencing platforms.
- Security Solutions: Cisco offers comprehensive security products to protect networks, cloud environments, email, and user identities from a wide array of cyber threats.
- Internet of Things (IoT) & Analytics Software: This category includes software for connecting and managing IoT devices, alongside advanced tools for data analysis and insights.
- Technical Support & Advanced Services: Cisco provides various service and support options, from essential technical assistance to specialized advanced services, ensuring customer success and operational efficiency.
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Major Suppliers:
- Foxconn (Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd.) (TPE: 2317)
- Jabil Inc. (NYSE: JBL)
- Flex Ltd. (NASDAQ: FLEX)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM)
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Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer
Chuck Robbins joined Cisco in 1997 and has served as CEO since July 2015, also becoming Chairman of the Board in December 2017. He has been instrumental in leading Cisco's strategic shift towards software, services, and innovative technologies. Prior to his CEO role, Robbins held various leadership positions within the company, including Senior Vice President of Worldwide Field Operations, where he oversaw global sales and partner organizations, and Senior Vice President of the Americas. Before joining Cisco, he worked as an application developer for North Carolina National Bank and held positions at Wellfleet Communications and Ascend Communications.
Mark Patterson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mark Patterson became Cisco's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective July 27, 2025, succeeding Scott Herren. He joined Cisco in September 2000 and has held various leadership roles within the company, including Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer since March 2024. Patterson also served as Senior Vice President, Chief of Staff to the Chair & CEO, and Senior Vice President, Strategy, Planning, and Operations for Worldwide Sales and Marketing. Before his tenure at Cisco, he led finance and operations for IPMobile, a company that was later acquired by Cisco in 2000.
Jeetu Patel, President and Chief Product Officer
Jeetu Patel leads Cisco's global product vision and strategy. He joined Cisco in 2020 and initially led the collaboration and security business. Patel is recognized for his dedication to product design, user experience, and for driving innovation across Cisco's extensive product portfolio, establishing the company's role as critical infrastructure for the AI era.
Dev Stahlkopf, Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer
Dev Stahlkopf serves as Cisco's Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer.
Thimaya Subaiya, Executive Vice President, Operations
Thimaya Subaiya is Cisco's Executive Vice President of Operations, overseeing key functions such as Security & Trust, Supply Chain, IT, internal Cisco AI governance, and core operations. He is known for his strong background in implementing growth strategies within the services and software businesses, balancing innovation, simplicity, and optimization.
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The key risks to Cisco Systems (CSCO) include intensifying competition in the AI networking sector, ongoing margin pressures from rising costs and product mix, and challenges in effectively integrating strategic acquisitions.
- Intensifying Competition in AI Networking: Cisco faces significant competitive pressures, particularly in the rapidly evolving AI networking sector. Rivals such as Arista Networks and Nvidia are actively gaining market share in data center AI networking, leading to a decline in Cisco's core network revenue. This fierce competition poses a substantial threat to Cisco's market position and long-term revenue growth.
- Margin Pressures from Rising Costs and Product Mix: The company is experiencing declining gross margins, primarily due to increases in memory chip prices and a product mix that is more hardware-heavy. These rising costs directly impact Cisco's profitability and have led to weaker-than-expected profitability forecasts, causing investor concern and stock volatility.
- Challenges in Integrating Acquisitions: Cisco's aggressive acquisition strategy, including the recent $28 billion acquisition of Splunk, presents integration challenges. These challenges can include potential cultural clashes, talent drain, and a slower-than-anticipated return on investment. Furthermore, a rapid succession of acquisitions may stretch the company into areas where it lacks a solid competitive advantage, leading to operational complexities.
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The clear emerging threats for Cisco Systems include:
- The accelerating industry shift towards **Secure Access Service Edge (SASE)** architectures, which converge network and security functions into a single, cloud-delivered platform. This fundamentally challenges Cisco's traditional model of selling distinct on-premises networking and security hardware and software appliances, as pure-play SASE providers and other integrated security vendors gain market share.
- The increasing maturity and comprehensive nature of **hyperscale public cloud providers (e.g., Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud)**. As more enterprises migrate their core infrastructure and applications to these cloud environments, the native networking, security, and collaboration services offered by the cloud providers reduce the need for traditional enterprise-purchased hardware and software from vendors like Cisco.
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Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) operates within several large and expanding addressable markets for its diverse range of products and services.
Overall Addressable Market
- Cisco aims for a total addressable market (TAM) of approximately $900 billion by 2025, encompassing its existing, expansion, and adjacent markets globally. As of September 2021, the company addressed a market worth nearly $260 billion, with a goal to increase this to around $400 billion by 2025 in existing and expansion markets.
Infrastructure Platforms
- Managed Network Services: The global managed network services market was valued at USD 75.69 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 150.28 billion by 2032. North America is a dominant region, expected to hold the largest market share (approximately 35.22%) in this sector. Another estimate places the global market at USD 235.94 billion in 2024, growing to USD 541.32 billion by 2035. Cisco itself forecasts its total addressable market for managed services to be $113 billion by 2025.
- Routers and Switches: Cisco's market for routers and switches is estimated to reach USD 32.1 billion globally in 2026 and is projected to surpass USD 49.7 billion by 2032.
Collaboration Products
- Unified Communications (UC): The global unified communications market size was estimated at USD 136.11 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 417.86 billion by 2030. North America accounted for 26.0% of the global unified communications market in 2023.
- Video Conferencing: The global video conferencing market size was estimated at USD 11.65 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 24.46 billion by 2033. North America held the largest revenue share of over 38% in this market in 2024.
- Internet of Things (IoT) Solutions: The global Internet of Things (IoT) market size was valued at USD 1.18 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.65 trillion by 2030. North America held the largest market revenue share, accounting for 36.1% in 2023. More specifically, the global IoT Software market was valued at USD 1.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach nearly USD 3.28 billion by 2032.
Security Products
- Network Security: The global network security market size was valued at USD 27.11 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 79.29 billion by 2033. North America held 35.9% of the global network security market's revenue share in 2024.
- Cloud Security: The global cloud security market size was estimated at USD 40.81 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 133.39 billion by 2035. North America dominated the market with the largest revenue share of 35% in 2025.
- Identity and Access Management (IAM): The global identity and access management market size was valued at USD 18.86 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 61.93 billion by 2033. North America is identified as the dominant region in this market.
- Advanced Threat Protection (ATP): The global advanced threat protection market size was estimated at USD 6.79 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 24.51 billion by 2030. North America was the largest revenue-generating market in 2023.
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Cisco Systems (CSCO) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:
- AI Infrastructure Demand: Cisco is experiencing significant demand for network equipment as companies globally expand their data centers and accelerate Artificial Intelligence (AI) projects. The company has secured substantial AI-related orders, with expectations to recognize approximately $3 billion in revenue from AI infrastructure in fiscal year 2026, primarily from hyperscalers. This growth is further fueled by the need for high-speed network technology among government clouds, commercial cloud providers, and large enterprises as AI workloads generate substantially more network traffic.
- Growth in Security Business and Splunk Integration: The acquisition of Splunk is a pivotal driver for Cisco's security revenues. The integration of Splunk is expected to significantly strengthen Cisco's Threat Intelligence, Detection, and Response (TIDR) offerings. While there have been short-term impacts from the shift to cloud subscriptions for Splunk, which affects revenue recognition, the long-term outlook for the combined security portfolio, including new AI-powered solutions like Hypershield, is positive.
- Campus Networking Refresh Cycle: Cisco is poised to benefit from a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar campus network refresh opportunity. Enterprise customers are increasingly investing in modernizing their campus networks, upgrading switching, routing, and wireless products to support AI deployments and replace older infrastructure. This cycle is expected to drive demand for Cisco's Catalyst 9000 series switches and other refreshed networking products.
- Increasing Adoption of Software and Subscription-based Offerings: Cisco continues its strategic shift towards a higher mix of software and subscription revenues, which provides a more predictable and recurring revenue stream. This focus on Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and software growth enhances the stability and long-term visibility of Cisco's financial performance, supporting growth across its product categories.
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Share Repurchases
- In February 2025, Cisco's board approved a $15 billion increase to its stock repurchase program, bringing the total authorized amount for future repurchases to approximately $17 billion.
- Cisco returned $12.4 billion to stockholders in fiscal year 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, with $6 billion specifically allocated for share repurchases.
- In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company repurchased approximately 19 million shares for an aggregate purchase price of $1.3 billion.
Share Issuance
- In December 2025, Cisco's shareholders approved an amendment to the 2005 Stock Incentive Plan, increasing the number of shares authorized for issuance by 57,490,000.
- As of July 26, 2025, prior to the approved increase, 100,026,176 shares were available for future grants under the stock incentive plan.
Outbound Investments
- In September 2023, Cisco announced its most significant acquisition, Splunk, for approximately $28 billion.
- The company completed the acquisition of Acacia Communications for $4.5 billion in March 2021, focusing on optical component technology for high-speed data transmission.
- Cisco has made strategic acquisitions in AI and security, including EzDubs and NeuralFabric in November 2025, and SnapAttack in February 2025. It also launched a $1 billion Global AI fund in 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- Cisco's capital expenditures were $905 million in fiscal year 2025, $670 million in fiscal year 2024, and $849 million in fiscal year 2023.
- The company expects to surpass $1 billion in AI infrastructure orders in fiscal year 2025, indicating a significant focus on AI-driven network infrastructure and data capacity investments.
- Cisco's CEO indicated plans to boost capital expenditures in the upcoming six months (as of March 2026), with a continued focus on AI infrastructure.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 164.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 241.5 |
| Rev LTM | 24,700 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,202 |
| FCF LTM | 4,634 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,501 |
| CFO LTM | 5,891 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,275 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 21.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 33.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 16.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 28.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 241.5 |
| P/S | 11.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 40.8 |
| P/EBIT | 37.3 |
| P/E | 49.1 |
| P/CFO | 37.1 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 77.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 86.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 65.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 182.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3M Excs Rtn | - |
| 6M Excs Rtn | - |
| 12M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | - |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Networking | 28,304 | 29,229 | 34,570 | ||
| Services | 15,046 | 14,550 | 13,856 | 13,539 | 13,804 |
| Security | 8,094 | 5,075 | 3,859 | ||
| Collaboration | 4,154 | 4,113 | 4,052 | 4,472 | 4,727 |
| Observability | 1,055 | 837 | 661 | ||
| End-to-End Security | 3,699 | 3,382 | |||
| Internet for the Future | 5,276 | 4,514 | |||
| Optimized Application Experiences | 729 | 654 | |||
| Other Products | 11 | 15 | |||
| Secure, Agile Networks | 23,831 | 22,722 | |||
| Total | 56,653 | 53,804 | 56,998 | 51,557 | 49,818 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $112.76 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 445.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $117.01 | $87.48 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -3.6% | 28.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 45.5% | 32.7% |
| Downside Capture | 117.59 | 94.13 |
| Upside Capture | 208.21 | 137.79 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 40.7% | 40.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.53 | 1.44 | 1.06 | 1.18 | 1.04 | 0.84 |
| Up Beta | -0.17 | -0.59 | -0.02 | 0.16 | 0.43 | 0.73 |
| Down Beta | 1.61 | 1.78 | 1.90 | 1.73 | 1.30 | 0.98 |
| Up Capture | 206% | 287% | 204% | 206% | 166% | 83% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 23 | 39 | 71 | 138 | 412 |
| Down Capture | 188% | 126% | 92% | 99% | 96% | 91% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 18 | 24 | 53 | 112 | 332 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CSCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 69.2% | 32.6% | 1.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 38.6% | 24.7% | 1.27 | 46.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.5% | 12.7% | 1.06 | 40.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.6% | 28.1% | 0.57 | 10.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.2% | 19.1% | 1.45 | 6.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.6% | 13.9% | 0.55 | -5.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.1% | 42.9% | -1.28 | 17.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CSCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 19.3% | 25.3% | 0.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.5% | 25.6% | 0.68 | 55.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.57 | 57.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.8% | 18.4% | 0.74 | 7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.8% | 19.5% | 0.39 | 13.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.6% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 36.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.8% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 19.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CSCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 17.7% | 26.0% | 0.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.4% | 24.8% | 0.89 | 64.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 66.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.2% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 17.9% | 0.33 | 20.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 44.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.7% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 15.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/16/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/13/2026 | 13.4% | 12.3% | 18.9% |
| 2/11/2026 | -12.3% | -8.2% | -8.4% |
| 11/12/2025 | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% |
| 8/13/2025 | -1.6% | -4.7% | -5.5% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.1% | 3.4% | -3.2% |
| 11/13/2024 | -2.1% | -2.8% | -0.9% |
| 8/14/2024 | 6.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -4.7% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 13.4% | 12.3% | 18.9% |
| Max Negative | -13.7% | -13.0% | -17.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/13/2026 | 13.4% | 12.3% | 18.9% |
| 2/11/2026 | -12.3% | -8.2% | -8.4% |
| 11/12/2025 | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% |
| 8/13/2025 | -1.6% | -4.7% | -5.5% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.1% | 3.4% | -3.2% |
| 11/13/2024 | -2.1% | -2.8% | -0.9% |
| 8/14/2024 | 6.8% | 11.0% | 9.6% |
| 5/15/2024 | -2.7% | -4.5% | -8.0% |
| 2/14/2024 | -2.4% | -3.4% | -2.7% |
| 11/15/2023 | -9.8% | -9.8% | -6.4% |
| 8/16/2023 | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| 5/17/2023 | 1.2% | 1.6% | 9.3% |
| 2/15/2023 | 5.2% | 1.6% | 3.6% |
| 11/16/2022 | 5.0% | 9.4% | 7.7% |
| 8/17/2022 | 5.8% | 0.9% | -7.2% |
| 5/18/2022 | -13.7% | -9.0% | -10.3% |
| 2/16/2022 | 2.8% | 0.9% | 3.2% |
| 11/17/2021 | -5.5% | -2.1% | 6.5% |
| 8/18/2021 | 3.8% | 7.6% | 3.1% |
| 5/19/2021 | 0.7% | 0.8% | -0.8% |
| 2/9/2021 | -2.6% | -4.6% | 0.6% |
| 11/12/2020 | 7.1% | 6.5% | 14.4% |
| 8/12/2020 | -11.2% | -13.0% | -17.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -4.7% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 13.4% | 12.3% | 18.9% |
| Max Negative | -13.7% | -13.0% | -17.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/19/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/20/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/08/2022 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/19/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 09/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/20/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/08/2022 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 02/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2021 | 11/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 09/09/2021 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2021 | 05/25/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 02/16/2021 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2020 | 11/17/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 09/03/2020 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2020 | 05/18/2020 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2020 | 02/18/2020 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2019 | 11/19/2019 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2019 | 09/05/2019 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 5/13/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | 16.70 Bil | 16.80 Bil | 16.90 Bil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 65.5% | 66.0% | 66.5% | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 34.0% | 34.5% | 35.0% | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.18 | ||||
| Q4 2026 GAAP EPS | 0.8 | 0.82 | 0.85 | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | 62.80 Bil | 62.90 Bil | 63.00 Bil | 2.4% | Raised | Guidance: 61.45 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 4.27 | 4.28 | 4.29 | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 4.15 for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP EPS | 3.16 | 3.19 | 3.21 | 4.8% | Raised | Guidance: 3.04 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 15.40 Bil | 15.50 Bil | 15.60 Bil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 65.5% | 66.0% | 66.5% | ||||
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 33.5% | 34.0% | 34.5% | ||||
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.04 | ||||
| Q3 2026 GAAP EPS | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.77 | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | 61.20 Bil | 61.45 Bil | 61.70 Bil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 60.60 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 4.13 | 4.15 | 4.17 | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 4.11 for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP EPS | 3 | 3.04 | 3.08 | 3.9% | Raised | Guidance: 2.92 for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 11/12/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 15.00 Bil | 15.10 Bil | 15.20 Bil | 2.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 14.75 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 67.5% | 68.0% | 68.5% | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 68.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 33.5% | 34.0% | 34.5% | 0.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 33.5% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 4.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.98 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 GAAP EPS | 0.69 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 9.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.66 for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 60.20 Bil | 60.60 Bil | 61.00 Bil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 59.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 4.08 | 4.11 | 4.14 | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 4.03 for 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP EPS | 2.87 | 2.92 | 2.98 | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 2.85 for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/13/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 119.91 | 7,127 | 854,599 | 16,890,171 | Form |
| 2 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 121.12 | 2,607 | 315,771 | 20,921,454 | Form |
| 3 | Patterson, Mark | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 119.96 | 7,397 | 887,322 | 21,294,393 | Form |
| 4 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 120.03 | 21,400 | 2,568,584 | 76,467,557 | Form |
| 5 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 114.61 | 2,761 | 316,438 | 20,730,293 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 119.91 | 7,127 | 854,599 | 16,890,171 | Form |
| 2 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 121.12 | 2,607 | 315,771 | 20,921,454 | Form |
| 3 | Patterson, Mark | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 119.96 | 7,397 | 887,322 | 21,294,393 | Form |
| 4 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 120.03 | 21,400 | 2,568,584 | 76,467,557 | Form |
| 5 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 114.61 | 2,761 | 316,438 | 20,730,293 | Form |
| 6 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 117.31 | 6,586 | 772,580 | 20,789,396 | Form |
| 7 | Patterson, Mark | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 117.29 | 5,512 | 646,485 | 22,438,478 | Form |
| 8 | Patel, Jeetendra I | President and CPO | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 117.28 | 7,169 | 840,781 | 28,937,374 | Form |
| 9 | Patterson, Mark | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 77.97 | 4,892 | 381,450 | 15,598,009 | Form |
| 10 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 79.74 | 3,132 | 249,746 | 15,040,000 | Form |
| 11 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 79.50 | 7,981 | 634,513 | 14,874,770 | Form |
| 12 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 77.07 | 1,744 | 134,410 | 12,076,338 | Form |
| 13 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 77.54 | 551 | 42,725 | 2,167,766 | Form |
| 14 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 77.74 | 2,179 | 169,395 | 2,239,430 | Form |
| 15 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 78.60 | 10,233 | 804,268 | 12,587,278 | Form |
| 16 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 74.24 | 51 | 3,786 | 2,300,376 | Form |
| 17 | Patel, Jeetendra I | President and CPO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 76.00 | 11,248 | 854,853 | 19,971,065 | Form |
| 18 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 76.00 | 19,545 | 1,485,395 | 51,002,391 | Form |
| 19 | Capellas, Michael D | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 77.13 | 10,850 | 836,860 | 11,289,364 | Form | |
| 20 | Capellas, Michael D | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 77.28 | 16,150 | 1,247,994 | 12,149,052 | Form | |
| 21 | Johnson, Kristina M | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 77.13 | 13,481 | 1,039,845 | 4,753,785 | Form | |
| 22 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 79.46 | 1,745 | 138,658 | 14,010,279 | Form |
| 23 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 80.33 | 428 | 34,381 | 2,584,729 | Form |
| 24 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 76.38 | 9,801 | 748,586 | 2,522,465 | Form |
| 25 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 79.21 | 13,353 | 1,057,691 | 15,607,507 | Form |
| 26 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 78.33 | 56,038 | 4,389,264 | 14,081,518 | Form |
| 27 | Patterson, Mark | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 77.30 | 68,916 | 5,327,200 | 16,147,694 | Form |
| 28 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 77.30 | 116,734 | 9,023,672 | 54,431,841 | Form |
| 29 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 77.98 | 15 | 1,170 | 16,406,415 | Form |
| 30 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 77.98 | 20 | 1,560 | 15,340,098 | Form |
| 31 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 78.35 | 281,860 | 22,084,655 | 64,319,194 | Form |
| 32 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 76.56 | 5,425 | 415,338 | 16,108,806 | Form |
| 33 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 77.85 | 164,584 | 12,813,549 | 15,316,900 | Form |
| 34 | Patel, Jeetendra I | President and CPO | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 77.86 | 163,896 | 12,760,201 | 21,885,824 | Form |
| 35 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 77.82 | 203,838 | 15,863,311 | 85,819,230 | Form |
| 36 | Tuszik, Oliver | EVP, Global Sales | Direct | Sell | 9222025 | 67.95 | 17,526 | 1,190,839 | 13,511,577 | Form |
| 37 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 66.78 | 1,744 | 116,464 | 10,551,816 | Form |
| 38 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 9112025 | 68.25 | 428 | 29,211 | 2,089,729 | Form |
| 39 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 9112025 | 68.08 | 2,718 | 185,054 | 10,701,824 | Form |
| 40 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 67.28 | 3,162 | 212,739 | 2,117,178 | Form |
| 41 | Subaiya, Thimaya K | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 66.84 | 7,511 | 502,022 | 10,792,159 | Form |
| 42 | Patterson, Mark | EVP and CFO | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 66.98 | 7,230 | 484,294 | 10,574,636 | Form |
| 43 | Patel, Jeetendra I | President and CPO | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 66.60 | 9,061 | 603,437 | 15,810,509 | Form |
| 44 | Robbins, Charles | Chair and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 66.63 | 30,557 | 2,036,057 | 42,577,483 | Form |
| 45 | Stahlkopf, Deborah L | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 66.60 | 9,783 | 651,568 | 10,767,048 | Form |
| 46 | Wong, Maria Victoria | SVP & Chief Acctg Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 68.61 | 475 | 32,590 | 2,375,976 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 24, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $51.0 Mil | 7.8% | 41 | ADD +136.8% | 13F |
| Harbor Island Capital LLC | $16.0 Mil | 5.9% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| WELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUST | $465.5 Mil | 5.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Westerly Capital Management, LLC | $17.5 Mil | 5.4% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $19.5 Mil | 3.9% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Lone Peak Global Investors LLC | $23.4 Mil | 3.9% | 42 | ADD +10.7% | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $40.6 Mil | 3.9% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $33.2 Mil | 3.5% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Weybosset Research & Management LLC | $11.7 Mil | 3.4% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Promethos Capital, LLC | $9.9 Mil | 2.7% | 46 | TRIM -6.3% | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $10.0 Mil | 2.4% | 46 | ADD +44.7% | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $15.8 Mil | 2.2% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $17.6 Mil | 2.1% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $26.4 Mil | 0.7% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $26.4 Mil | 0.7% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $17.6 Mil | 2.1% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Westerly Capital Management, LLC | $17.5 Mil | 5.4% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $51.0 Mil | 7.8% | 41 | ADD +136.8% | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $10.0 Mil | 2.4% | 46 | ADD +44.7% | 13F |
| Lone Peak Global Investors LLC | $23.4 Mil | 3.9% | 42 | ADD +10.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUST | $465.5 Mil | 5.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $51.0 Mil | 7.8% | 41 | ADD +136.8% | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $40.6 Mil | 3.9% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $33.2 Mil | 3.5% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $26.4 Mil | 0.7% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Lone Peak Global Investors LLC | $23.4 Mil | 3.9% | 42 | ADD +10.7% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $19.5 Mil | 3.9% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $17.6 Mil | 2.1% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Westerly Capital Management, LLC | $17.5 Mil | 5.4% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Harbor Island Capital LLC | $16.0 Mil | 5.9% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $15.8 Mil | 2.2% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Weybosset Research & Management LLC | $11.7 Mil | 3.4% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $10.0 Mil | 2.4% | 46 | ADD +44.7% | 13F |
| Promethos Capital, LLC | $9.9 Mil | 2.7% | 46 | TRIM -6.3% | 13F |
CSCO Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is high, centered on a powerful business re-acceleration. Cisco is capturing a massive AI infrastructure wave, evidenced by its fiscal 2026 AI order forecast nearly doubling to $9 billion. This is paired with a multi-year campus network refresh, driving total product order growth to an accelerating 35% rate.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid: Project-based hardware sales and recurring software/service subscriptions.Volume of devices sold x Average Selling Price + Number of subscriptions x Average Recurring Revenue. Gross margin on high-volume Networking hardware sales and high-margin, recurring Services revenue.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence points to a powerful re-acceleration driven by two distinct, concurrent demand waves.
- Total product orders accelerated for the third straight quarter to 35% YoY growth in Q3.
- FY26 AI infrastructure order forecast was raised from $5 billion to $9 billion.
- Campus networking orders grew over 25% year-over-year in Q3, a record for the segment.
- Full-year FY26 revenue guidance was raised by 2.4% at the last report.
PRIMARY RISK
The surge in lower-margin AI hardware sales is compressing profitability, with latest-quarter gross margin falling 2.0 percentage points to 63.6%.
- Latest-quarter gross margin fell 2.0 percentage points year-over-year to 63.6%.
- Product gross margin was 61.9% in Q3, below the 69.2% for Services.
- Management cited higher memory costs as a primary driver of margin pressure.
- Inventory grew 66.2% YoY, far outpacing 12% revenue growth, increasing balance sheet risk.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total Product Orders Growth | 35% year-over-year growth in Q3 FY2026 - Accelerating | Total product order growth has shown significant and sustained acceleration throughout fiscal 2026, indicating a powerful upswing in demand for the company's portfolio. The most recent quarter's 35% growth marks a substantial step-up from the 18% growth seen in the prior quarter. |
| AI Infrastructure Orders | $1.9 billion in Q3 FY2026 - Accelerating | While the quarterly figure dipped slightly, the overall momentum is extremely strong, evidenced by management nearly doubling the full-year fiscal 2026 forecast for AI orders from $5 billion to $9 billion. This represents a 4.5x increase over the prior fiscal year's total. |
| Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) | $43.5 billion (As of Q3 FY2026 (April 25, 2026)) | Represents the total amount of future revenue that is under contract but has not yet been recognized, providing visibility into future revenue streams from products and services. |
AI Revenue Boom vs. Hardware Margin Squeeze
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the 35% product order growth signals a generational opportunity that justifies near-term margin pressure, creating significant long-term earnings power as the company scales.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating 35% product order growth offset the 2.0 percentage point gross margin decline, a trade-off the market's +16.0% post-earnings reaction endorsed?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The market rewarded the massive increase in the AI order forecast, prioritizing top-line acceleration over the acknowledged margin impact.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue the 2.0 percentage point drop in gross margin reveals a pivot to lower-quality revenue that will fail to translate into meaningful profit growth.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Next Quarterly Earnings Report Watch: Cisco reports Q4 Fiscal Year 2026 financial results and provides guidance for Q1 Fiscal Year 2027. |
9/1/2026 | Peer HPE Earnings Watch: Peer Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is scheduled to report earnings, providing a competitive data point on networking and AI infrastructure demand. |
September 20, 2026 | Senior Note Matures Watch: A senior fixed-rate note with a principal amount of $1.5 billion matures. |
11/2/2026 | Peer Outperformance Highlights Slower Core Growth Watch: Revenue growth and margin commentary from Arista Networks, a key competitor reporting just before Cisco. |
11/10/2026 | Margin Pressure From AI Hardware Mix Watch: Gross margin guidance for Q1 FY27 and commentary on the mix between hardware and software. |
11/10/2026 | Splunk Revenue Recognition Drag Persists Watch: Security segment revenue growth and management commentary on the pace of the Splunk cloud transition. |
11/10/2026 | Q1 Fiscal 2027 Earnings Watch: Cisco reports Q1 Fiscal Year 2027 financial results, providing the first update on the new fiscal year. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-06-23 | Supreme Court Ends China Lawsuit Details: The U.S. Supreme Court ended a lawsuit that had alleged Cisco helped China pursue members of the Falun Gong movement, limiting corporate liability for human rights abuses abroad. | -1.5% $121.08 -> $119.28 |
2026-06-02 | Agentic Platform for IT Unveiled Details: Cisco unveiled Cisco Cloud Control, a unified platform for human operators and AI agents to run critical IT infrastructure, advancing its AgenticOps vision. | +4.3% $120.88 -> $126.03 |
2026-05-19 | AI Agent Collaboration with Tech Leaders Details: Automation Anywhere announced EnterpriseClaw, a collaboration with Cisco, NVIDIA, Okta, and OpenAI, to run next-generation AI agents inside enterprise systems with centralized control. | -3.8% $118.44 -> $113.92 |
2026-05-13 | Strong Q3 Earnings and Guidance Raise Details: Cisco reported record Q3 revenue of $15.8 billion, up 12% year-over-year, with total product orders up 35%. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue and EPS guidance. | +16.4% $98.92 -> $115.10 |
2026-03-23 | Security Advancements for Agentic Workforce Details: Cisco announced it was reimagining security for the agentic workforce, extending Zero Trust Access to AI agents with new capabilities in identity, access management, and policy enforcement. | +4.1% $76.94 -> $80.12 |
2026-02-11 | Negative Post-Earnings Stock Reaction Details: Following its earnings report, the stock had a two-day reaction of -13.0%. A news report noted the market was "impatient for growth" despite a beat-and-raise quarter. | -13.1% $85.51 -> $74.32 |
2026-01-20 | Georgetown University Campus Network Modernization Details: Georgetown University selected Cisco to transform its campus connectivity, launching one of the largest Wi-Fi 7 initiatives in higher education. | -2.0% $74.51 -> $73.02 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: CSCO trades at roughly 43% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.9x the market), around the 100th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
ANET - Arista Networks, Inc.
Pure-Play AI NetworkingArista offers more concentrated exposure to the high-speed data center and AI networking market, with a higher operating margin of 42.8% versus Cisco's 23.7%.
HPE - Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
Broader AI SystemsHPE provides exposure to the AI server market in addition to networking, booking $1.8 billion in new AI systems orders in its latest quarter.
Cisco is a core infrastructure provider for the AI build-out, capturing massive hardware demand from hyperscalers while simultaneously benefiting from a long-overdue enterprise network upgrade cycle.
Cisco is experiencing a significant demand acceleration driven by two main tailwinds: the urgent need for high-performance networking to support AI workloads, and a major campus networking refresh cycle. The company is capitalizing on the AI trend with its Silicon One architecture and Acacia optics, securing multi-billion dollar orders from hyperscalers. This AI-driven growth is complemented by strong enterprise demand to modernize networks, creating a powerful, dual-engine growth story for the near term.
Continued triple-digit growth in AI infrastructure orders, acceleration in campus networking order growth, and sustained high single-digit or double-digit growth in total product orders ex-hyperscalers.
A sharp deceleration in hyperscaler orders, commentary about enterprise customers pausing network upgrades, or significant market share loss in core switching to competitors like Arista.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in the smaller Collaboration or Observability segments; typical stock market volatility unrelated to fundamental demand trends.
Repricing Catalyst
The significant upward revision of AI infrastructure order and revenue expectations for FY2026, signaling that the AI-driven demand is larger and accelerating faster than previously anticipated.
Networking
$30.8B TTM (52% of Total)What It Is
Sells core networking technologies including switching, routing, wireless, and servers as both hardware and software to enterprises, public sector, and service/cloud providers to build and transform their network infrastructure.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises and webscale cloud providers pay for high-performance, scalable infrastructure to handle increasing data loads, particularly for AI training and inference workloads. Customers choose Cisco for its integrated portfolio, including its proprietary Silicon One architecture.
Competition
Security
$8.0B TTM (13% of Total)What It Is
Sells a portfolio spanning Network Security, Identity and Access Management, SASE, and Threat Intelligence, Detection, and Response (TIDR) solutions, including offerings from the Splunk acquisition, to organizations of all sizes.
Who Pays & How
Organizations pay to protect against increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, particularly with the rapid growth in AI. Customers choose Cisco for its strategy of moving from point solutions to an integrated platform infused into the network fabric.
Competition
Collaboration
$4.2B TTM (7% of Total)What It Is
Sells the Webex suite, collaboration devices, Contact Center, and Communication Platform as a Service (CPaaS) offerings to enable distributed teams to collaborate.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises pay to provide technology for employee and customer experiences, enabling collaboration for distributed teams through on-premises, cloud, or hybrid solutions.
Competition
Observability
$1.1B TTM (2% of Total)What It Is
Sells network assurance (ThousandEyes), monitoring, analytics, and observability suite offerings (including Splunk Observability and AppDynamics) to provide end-to-end visibility of customer environments.
Who Pays & How
Organizations pay to monitor their entire enterprise—applications, networks, and multi-cloud infrastructures—to prevent downtime and improve digital experiences.
Competition
Services
$15.1B TTM (26% of Total)What It Is
Provides a broad range of technical support and professional services (planning, design, implementation, consulting) for its products to its entire customer base.
Who Pays & How
Customers pay to protect their network investments, manage risk, and minimize downtime for mission-critical systems by ensuring Cisco products operate efficiently and remain highly available.
Competition
Cisco Systems — Investor Video Playlist









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