Connect Biopharma (CNTB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.64 | Market Cap: $146.5 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Connect Biopharma (CNTB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.64Market Cap: $146.5 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -85% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -99% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 244%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 140% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -128%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -129% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 108% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -85% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -99% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 244%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 140% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -128%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -129% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 108% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CNTB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the 28.6% stock movement for Connect Biopharma (CNTB) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Connect Biopharma Completed the Termination of its American Depositary Receipt (ADR) Program and Directly Listed its Ordinary Shares on Nasdaq. This transition took place on September 2, 2025, with the company maintaining its existing "CNTB" ticker symbol. This strategic move was aimed at becoming a more U.S.-centric company and enhancing institutional access for U.S. investors, potentially increasing its appeal in the market.
2. The Company Announced its Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results, Revealing an Extended Cash Runway. On November 12, 2025, Connect Biopharma reported a net loss of $17.2 million for Q3 2025, but highlighted a strong liquidity position with $54.8 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments as of September 30, 2025. Management projected these resources would fund operations into 2027, providing financial stability and confidence to investors.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CNTB Return | - | - | -83% | 36% | 17% | 93% | -48% |
| Peers Return | 2% | -1% | 6% | 8% | -0% | 2% | 17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CNTB Win Rate | - | 56% | 25% | 58% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 90% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CNTB Max Drawdown | - | - | -89% | -25% | -19% | -60% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -5% | 0% | -0% | -1% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CNTB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4979.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
Connect Biopharma's stock fell -98.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/10/2021. A -98.0% loss requires a 4979.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Connect Biopharma Stock Surges 107%, With A 6-Day Winning Spree | Notification | |
| Connect Biopharma Stock Surges 69%, With A 5-Day Winning Spree | Notification | |
| With Connect Biopharma Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CNTB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Connect Biopharma
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.3 |
| Rev LTM | 10 |
| Op Inc LTM | -70 |
| FCF LTM | -31 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,027 |
| CFO LTM | -31 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,204 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -98.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -127.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -129.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.3 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| P/EBIT | 9.5 |
| P/E | 11.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.1 |
| Total Yield | -8.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 123.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 70.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 157.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 109.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 60.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 84.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 6302024 | 9052024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4162024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9122023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4112023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 6302022 | 9132022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8312021 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
| 12312020 | 3192021 | 424B4 12/31/2020 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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