Tearsheet

Commerce.com (CMRC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.595 | Market Cap: $371.1 Mil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Commerce.com (CMRC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.595
Market Cap: $371.1 Mil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.4%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 7.0%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands.
 
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 7.0%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands.
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.4%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CMRC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Barclays maintained an "Underweight" recommendation.

On October 16, 2025, analyst firm Barclays maintained its "Underweight" recommendation for Commerce.com, signaling a cautious outlook on the stock's future performance.

2. Morgan Stanley lowered its price target.

On November 7, 2025, Morgan Stanley reiterated a "Hold" rating for Commerce.com but reduced its price target to $6.50 from $7.00, suggesting a less optimistic valuation for the company's shares.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CMRC Return------ 
Peers Return13%-2%-7%5%55%836%1483%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CMRC Win Rate-----50% 
Peers Win Rate13%10%9%30%44%36% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CMRC Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown-5%-4%-8%-15%-8%-51% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

CMRC has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-34.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven278 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven79 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven105 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-53.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven115.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1183 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Commerce.com (CMRC)

Better Bets than Commerce.com (CMRC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CMRC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Commerce.com

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CMRCADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameCommerce.Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Price4.60307.241.292.223.427.564.01
Mkt Cap0.465.40.1---0.4
Rev LTM3406,60527-21,026340
Op Inc LTM-51,5151--0651
FCF LTM281,8471--255142
FCF 3Y Avg21,704---216216
CFO LTM371,9254--310173
CFO 3Y Avg81,775---271271

Growth & Margins

CMRCADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameCommerce.Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Rev Chg LTM3.0%13.8%29.7%--10.6%12.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.8%11.7%---10.2%10.2%
Rev Chg Q2.8%17.1%86.2%--12.0%14.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%4.1%19.3%--2.9%3.5%
Op Mgn LTM-1.4%22.9%5.0%--3.8%6.3%5.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-12.1%21.5%---6.9%6.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.6%0.8%-0.1%---0.1%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM10.8%29.1%13.5%--30.2%21.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg1.9%30.7%---29.0%29.0%
FCF/Rev LTM8.3%28.0%4.9%--24.9%16.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.1%29.5%---23.1%23.1%

Valuation

CMRCADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameCommerce.Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
Mkt Cap0.465.40.1---0.4
P/S1.210.01.8---1.8
P/EBIT-409.546.724.6---24.6
P/E-30.163.235.8---35.8
P/CFO10.934.313.5---13.5
Total Yield-3.3%1.6%2.8%---1.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.3%----3.3%
D/E0.40.00.0---0.0
Net D/E0.10.0-0.2---0.0

Returns

CMRCADSKHITBMRBTTCCCCMedian
NameCommerce.Autodesk Health I.Beamr Im.Black Ti.CCC Inte. 
1M Rtn-0.6%1.2%-52.2%-12.3%-3.1%-13.3%-7.7%
3M Rtn3.4%-3.2%-53.8%-20.1%-14.5%-64.8%-17.3%
6M Rtn-3.0%104.0%-30.6%-14.5%-64.8%-14.5%
12M Rtn-2.8%--27.5%4,785.7%-64.8%-12.3%
3Y Rtn-52.8%--3,320.0%-64.8%52.8%
1M Excs Rtn-0.6%1.2%-52.2%-12.2%-3.1%-13.3%-7.7%
3M Excs Rtn-2.0%-9.3%-59.4%-23.1%-19.8%-70.2%-21.5%
6M Excs Rtn--11.7%89.3%-45.3%-29.2%-79.6%-29.2%
12M Excs Rtn--8.3%--45.7%4,643.1%-78.4%-27.0%
3Y Excs Rtn--15.5%--3,299.3%-137.6%-15.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment309    
Partner and services 73654929
Subscription solutions 20615510483
Total309279220152112


Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,454,234
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-5.8%
Average Daily Volume1,232,974
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.42
Basic Shares Quantity80,756,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021