Chord Energy (CHRD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $96.0 | Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Chord Energy (CHRD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $96.0Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.9%, Dividend Yield is 5.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and US LNG. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.9%, Dividend Yield is 5.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and US LNG. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CHRD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Chord Energy's stock (CHRD) moved by -11.5% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strategic Acquisition and Senior Notes Offering.
Chord Energy announced a strategic acquisition of Williston Basin assets on September 15, 2025, followed by the upsizing and pricing of a $750 million offering of senior notes on September 16, 2025. This debt issuance, likely to fund the acquisition, may have raised concerns about increased leverage and future interest expenses among investors.
2. Weakening Crude Oil Prices.
Crude oil prices experienced a general downtrend during the period. After tumbling in early August due to OPEC+ plans to unwind output cuts, WTI crude futures were around $62.84 per barrel by August 13, 2025, and by December 1, 2025, crude oil was trading at approximately $59.050, marking a medium-term downtrend. This sustained weakness in a primary commodity for Chord Energy likely impacted investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CHRD Return | - | 261% | 35% | 32% | -25% | -16% | 303% |
| Peers Return | -27% | 122% | 58% | 5% | -1% | 2% | 170% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CHRD Win Rate | 100% | 75% | 58% | 83% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 60% | 62% | 52% | 45% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CHRD Max Drawdown | - | 0% | -5% | -8% | -29% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -69% | -0% | -1% | -17% | -14% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RRC, MUR, MGY, BSM, COP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CHRD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 631 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -5.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5 days | 148 days |
Compare to RRC, MUR, MGY, BSM, COP
In The Past
Chord Energy's stock fell -43.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -43.7% loss requires a 77.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CHRD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Chord Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 39.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| Rev LTM | 2,812 |
| Op Inc LTM | 636 |
| FCF LTM | 452 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 594 |
| CFO LTM | 1,282 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,407 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 47.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 48.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 11.6 |
| P/E | 15.6 |
| P/CFO | 4.9 |
| Total Yield | 8.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -16.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -90.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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