Cognex (CGNX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.75 | Market Cap: $6.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Cognex (CGNX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.75Market Cap: $6.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 69x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Automation & Robotics, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Automation & Robotics, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 69x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CGNX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -14% stock movement for Cognex (CGNX) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Cognex's stock experienced a significant drop following its Third Quarter 2025 earnings report on October 29, 2025, despite beating analyst expectations. While the company reported an 18% year-over-year revenue growth and a 69% increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share, the stock fell by 12.08% in post-earnings trading, indicating other concerns overshadowed the positive results.
2. JPMorgan downgraded Cognex's rating to Underweight and significantly lowered its price target on December 3, 2025. The investment bank reduced its price target from $45.00 to $35.00, a 22.22% decrease, citing stretched valuation and cyclical risks as primary concerns for the downgrade.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CGNX Return | 48% | -3% | -39% | -11% | -13% | 7% | -28% |
| Peers Return | 146% | 13% | -13% | 11% | -16% | 0% | 126% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CGNX Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 47% | 40% | 42% | 33% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CGNX Max Drawdown | -32% | -9% | -47% | -26% | -15% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -5% | -29% | -8% | -25% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ROK, AGCO, MVIS, USBC, ROP. See CGNX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CGNX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -63.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 171.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 681 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -65.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 193.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 603 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ROK, AGCO, MVIS, USBC, ROP
In The Past
Cognex's stock fell -63.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -63.1% loss requires a 171.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CGNX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 06302022 | CGNX | Cognex | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.1% | 32.5% | -3.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 06302022 | CGNX | Cognex | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.1% | 32.5% | -3.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cognex
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 71.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| Rev LTM | 4,346 |
| Op Inc LTM | 408 |
| FCF LTM | 481 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 402 |
| CFO LTM | 622 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 608 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| P/EBIT | 29.0 |
| P/E | 34.2 |
| P/CFO | 21.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -14.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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