Cognex (CGNX)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $36.57 | Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Cognex (CGNX)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $36.57Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -98% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | Key risksCGNX key risks include [1] a strong dependence on volatile capital spending from customers in cyclical industries such as consumer electronics, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Automation & Robotics, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Automation & Robotics, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -98% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8% |
| Key risksCGNX key risks include [1] a strong dependence on volatile capital spending from customers in cyclical industries such as consumer electronics, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CGNX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining why Cognex (CGNX) stock moved by -16.1% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 21, 2025:
1. Analyst Downgrade and Valuation Concerns: JPMorgan downgraded Cognex from Neutral to Underweight on December 3, 2025, primarily due to valuation concerns, setting a lower price target of $35.00.
2. Revised Price Targets by Other Analysts: In mid-December 2025, Truist Financial also lowered its price target for Cognex from $45 to $42 while maintaining a "Hold" rating.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CGNX Return | 48% | -3% | -39% | -11% | -13% | 2% | -31% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 20% | -19% | 23% | 12% | -4% | 64% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CGNX Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 63% | 35% | 57% | 55% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CGNX Max Drawdown | -32% | -9% | -47% | -26% | -15% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -7% | -35% | -11% | -14% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ROCK, TDY, ZBRA, AME, EMR. See CGNX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CGNX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -63.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 171.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 681 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -65.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 193.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 603 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ROK, ALLE, AGCO, DDD, ROP
In The Past
Cognex's stock fell -63.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -63.1% loss requires a 171.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Cognex Earnings Notes | |||
| Cognex Stock (+5.8%): Goldman's Double Upgrade Ignites a Technical Breakout | Notification | ||
| How Low Can Cognex Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| CGNX Jumps 27% in a Month, But Does MSFT Offer Better Fundamentals? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Big Move for CGNX, but Do ROP's Margins and Growth Give It the Edge? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Cognex Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than CGNX Stock: Pay Less Than Cognex To Get More From NVDA, MSFT | |||
| Better Bet Than CGNX Stock: Pay Less Than Cognex To Get More From NVDA, MSFT | |||
| Better Bet Than CGNX Stock: Pay Less Than Cognex To Get More From ROP, BMI | |||
| CGNX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Cognex Stock (+5.8%): Goldman’s Double Upgrade Ignites a Technical Breakout | December 17th, 2025 | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | September 11th, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: APLD, AMSC, PI | Losers: TROX, ALGN, CFLT | August 1st, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CGNX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 06302022 | CGNX | Cognex | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.1% | 32.5% | -3.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 06302022 | CGNX | Cognex | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.1% | 32.5% | -3.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cognex
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 168.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.4 |
| Rev LTM | 5,630 |
| Op Inc LTM | 958 |
| FCF LTM | 915 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 730 |
| CFO LTM | 1,005 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 819 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.4 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/EBIT | 22.2 |
| P/E | 32.3 |
| P/CFO | 22.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -12.9% | -14.6% | -19.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | 20.8% | 21.1% | 30.7% |
| 4/30/2025 | 1.9% | 4.1% | 10.1% |
| 2/12/2025 | -13.6% | -14.9% | -19.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -0.6% | 5.3% | -1.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | -21.2% | -24.7% | -19.2% |
| 5/2/2024 | 5.9% | 13.1% | 11.4% |
| 2/15/2024 | 6.5% | 12.9% | 12.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 7.5% | 14.5% |
| Median Negative | -10.9% | -11.1% | -15.2% |
| Max Positive | 20.8% | 21.1% | 30.7% |
| Max Negative | -21.2% | -24.7% | -28.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |