Centerra Gold (CGAU)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.84 | Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Centerra Gold (CGAU)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.84Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 6.0% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 142% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | Key risksCGAU key risks include [1] the history of asset expropriation following the loss of its Kumtor mine and [2] operational headwinds, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Resource Extraction & Processing, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Precious Metals Mining, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 6.0% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Resource Extraction & Processing, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Precious Metals Mining, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 142% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% |
| Key risksCGAU key risks include [1] the history of asset expropriation following the loss of its Kumtor mine and [2] operational headwinds, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CGAU Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The significant movement of Centerra Gold (CGAU) stock by 69.7% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, can be attributed to several key developments:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Centerra Gold reported robust third-quarter 2025 results on October 28, 2025, with net earnings of $292.2 million, or $1.44 per share, and adjusted net earnings of $66.4 million, or $0.33 per share. These figures significantly surpassed analyst expectations of $0.22 per share. The company also reported revenue of $395.2 million, exceeding analyst estimates of $314.74 million. This strong performance was primarily driven by robust production at its Öksüt mine and elevated metal prices.
2. Mount Milligan Mine Life Extension: In September 2025, Centerra Gold announced the results of a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for its Mount Milligan mine, confirming an extension of its mine life by approximately 10 years to 2045. The study outlined an optimized mine plan, projecting average annual production of 150,000 ounces of gold and 69 million pounds of copper from 2026 to 2042, supported by a disciplined and fully funded $186 million growth capital plan.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CGAU Return | -22% | 27% | -30% | 19% | -1% | 152% | 104% |
| Peers Return | 45% | -22% | -2% | 29% | 27% | 129% | 316% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CGAU Win Rate | 17% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 45% | 45% | 55% | 52% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CGAU Max Drawdown | -37% | 0% | -49% | -10% | -24% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -33% | -32% | -10% | -20% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AEM, KGC, AGI, EGO, BTG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CGAU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -63.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1100 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 398 days | 148 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1654.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 641 days | 1480 days |
Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM
In The Past
Centerra Gold's stock fell -63.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/10/2022. A -63.5% loss requires a 173.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CGAU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| 08312022 | CGAU | Centerra Gold | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 45.5% | 36.8% | -16.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| 08312022 | CGAU | Centerra Gold | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 45.5% | 36.8% | -16.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Centerra Gold
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 31.15 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.4 |
| Rev LTM | 2,093 |
| Op Inc LTM | 849 |
| FCF LTM | 479 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 498 |
| CFO LTM | 731 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 708 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 32.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 25.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 29.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 39.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 31.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 44.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 43.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.4 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/EBIT | 11.2 |
| P/E | 20.9 |
| P/CFO | 9.0 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 22.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 52.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 111.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 274.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 22.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 40.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 97.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 200.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Milligan | 407 | 472 | 506 | 394 |
| Öksüt | 381 | 102 | 199 | 187 |
| Molybdenum | 307 | 276 | 195 | 141 |
| Corporate and other | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 1,095 | 850 | 900 | 721 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Öksüt | 230 | 61 | 116 | 134 |
| Mount Milligan | 11 | 100 | 309 | 84 |
| Molybdenum | -65 | 60 | -31 | -89 |
| Corporate and other | -158 | -258 | -60 | -84 |
| Total | 18 | -37 | 334 | 44 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3282025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7312023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3302023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3222022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |