Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 6.0%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 125%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Resource Extraction & Processing, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Precious Metals Mining, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 6.0%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Resource Extraction & Processing, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Precious Metals Mining, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
6 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 125%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CGAU Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Based on available information for Centerra Gold (CGAU) for the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, several key developments could contribute to significant stock movement.

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Centerra Gold reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with significant production at its Öksüt mine and higher metal prices contributing to a boosted cash balance of $562 million. The company's financial strength is seen as driving its self-funded growth strategy. This positive financial performance can significantly impact investor sentiment and stock value.

2. Analyst Upgrades and Positive Outlook: Zacks Research upgraded Centerra Gold from a "hold" to a "strong-buy" rating in December 2025. Other analysts also provided positive ratings, with a consensus of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $14.17. Earnings estimates for 2025 also rose, with analysts expecting roughly $0.59 EPS for the fiscal year. This positive analyst sentiment and an improving earnings outlook can attract investors and drive up the stock price.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CGAU Return-22%27%-30%19%-1%140%94%
Peers Return41%-14%-6%-1%9%126%176%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CGAU Win Rate17%33%42%50%42%80% 
Peers Win Rate48%45%48%52%47%78% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CGAU Max Drawdown-37%0%-49%-10%-24%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-28%-32%-22%-21%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCGAUS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-63.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven173.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1100 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-38.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven398 days148 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-94.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1654.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven641 days1480 days

Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM


In The Past

Centerra Gold's stock fell -63.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/10/2022. A -63.5% loss requires a 173.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Centerra Gold (CGAU)

Better Bets than Centerra Gold (CGAU)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CGAU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%
CGAU_8312022_Dip_Buyer_HighCashEquity_ExInd08312022CGAUCenterra GoldDip BuyDB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % Equity
Buying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation
45.5%36.8%-16.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%
CGAU_8312022_Dip_Buyer_HighCashEquity_ExInd08312022CGAUCenterra GoldDip BuyDB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % Equity
Buying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation
45.5%36.8%-16.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Centerra Gold

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CGAUBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameCenterra.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Price13.3040.91202.939.3090.72171.4365.81
Mkt Cap2.770.239.12.999.586.154.7
Rev LTM1,28513,8241,5461,35221,50310,5686,057
Op Inc LTM2455,3511,0694269,3595,2233,146
FCF LTM130--8562266,1223,645226
FCF 3Y Avg111--161242,6362,041124
CFO LTM338-1,3104559,2245,8371,310
CFO 3Y Avg260-1,0563395,6163,8831,056

Growth & Margins

CGAUBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameCenterra.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Rev Chg LTM2.7%16.9%41.1%68.1%26.6%35.2%30.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.5%5.9%7.7%26.7%23.9%26.0%18.7%
Rev Chg Q22.0%16.4%76.9%38.3%20.0%41.9%30.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.9%3.9%15.9%5.4%4.5%9.4%5.6%
Op Mgn LTM19.0%38.7%69.1%31.5%43.5%49.4%41.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.1%29.4%64.1%22.0%23.9%36.0%26.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.8%3.2%0.8%2.9%4.5%3.6%3.1%
CFO/Rev LTM26.3%-84.7%33.7%42.9%55.2%42.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg21.2%-81.3%35.4%32.6%45.6%35.4%
FCF/Rev LTM10.1%--55.4%16.7%28.5%34.5%16.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.9%-4.6%11.7%13.8%22.7%11.7%

Valuation

CGAUBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameCenterra.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Cap2.770.239.12.999.586.154.7
P/S1.72.627.82.04.38.03.4
P/EBIT4.96.336.75.98.916.27.6
P/E6.412.946.711.912.924.612.9
P/CFO6.4-32.86.010.014.510.0
Total Yield17.5%9.2%2.4%8.4%9.0%4.9%8.7%
Dividend Yield1.9%1.4%0.3%0.0%1.2%0.8%1.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.7%-0.4%6.2%3.6%3.9%3.9%
D/E0.00.00.00.10.10.00.0
Net D/E-0.30.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0

Returns

CGAUBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameCenterra.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
1M Rtn19.4%29.7%10.1%18.6%15.3%10.2%17.0%
3M Rtn60.7%50.9%7.2%22.0%21.5%15.8%21.8%
6M Rtn78.1%106.3%18.4%25.7%67.5%41.2%54.3%
12M Rtn125.1%140.5%67.8%88.3%122.8%103.0%112.9%
3Y Rtn184.2%165.2%46.7%151.4%109.7%264.8%158.3%
1M Excs Rtn18.2%28.5%8.8%17.4%14.1%8.9%15.7%
3M Excs Rtn48.8%38.8%-0.7%15.5%13.7%7.4%14.6%
6M Excs Rtn62.7%90.8%2.9%10.2%52.0%25.7%38.9%
12M Excs Rtn116.2%129.3%55.8%91.5%112.1%96.1%104.1%
3Y Excs Rtn111.4%102.8%-25.4%86.5%44.3%197.9%94.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,316,542
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-39.6%
Average Daily Volume1,411,299
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity202,437,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025102820256-K 9/30/2025
630202580620256-K 6/30/2025
331202550620256-K 3/31/2025
12312024328202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024103120246-K 9/30/2024
630202480120246-K 6/30/2024
331202451420246-K 3/31/2024
12312023328202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023103120236-K 9/30/2023
630202373120236-K 6/30/2023
331202351520236-K 3/31/2023
12312022330202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022110720226-K 9/30/2022
630202281020226-K 6/30/2022
331202250420226-K 3/31/2022
12312021322202240-F 12/31/2021