Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR)
Market Price (9/3/2026): $161.65 | Market Cap: $10.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR)
Market Price (9/3/2026): $161.65Market Cap: $10.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 5.4% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -77% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.3%, Dist 3Y High is -4.3% | Key risksCFR key risks include [1] significant concentration in the Texas market and [2] intense competitive pressure within that market. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 5.4% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -77% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, and Online Banking & Lending. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.3%, Dist 3Y High is -4.3% |
| Key risksCFR key risks include [1] significant concentration in the Texas market and [2] intense competitive pressure within that market. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) stock has gained about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Upbeat Guidance. Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) reported robust fiscal Q2 2026 results on July 30, 2026, with net income rising to $170 million, a 9.7% increase year-over-year from $155 million. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) grew 13% to $2.70 from $2.39 in fiscal Q2 2025, surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $2.54-$2.57 by 5.2% to 6.4%. Revenue for the quarter reached $598.3 million, up 9.4% year-over-year, exceeding analyst expectations by 1.6%. Key drivers included a 7.4% year-over-year growth in average loans to $22.6 billion and widening net interest margins. Management subsequently raised its full-year guidance, projecting net interest income growth of 4.75% to 5.25% (up from 3.5% to 5%), loan growth of 7% to 8% (up from 6% to 7%), and noninterest income growth of 7.5% to 8.5% (up from 4% to 5%), while simultaneously lowering expense growth expectations to 4.5% to 5% (down from 5% to 6%).
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Revisions. Following the strong fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, several prominent analysts revised their ratings and significantly increased their price targets for Cullen/Frost Bankers. For instance, Stephens lifted its price target from $169.00 to $183.00 with an "overweight" rating on July 31, 2026. TD Cowen raised its price objective from $169.00 to $185.00 and issued a "buy" rating on August 3, 2026. Royal Bank of Canada also increased its target from $168.00 to $176.00 with a "sector perform" rating on July 31, 2026. Additionally, Zacks Research upgraded the stock to a 'Strong-Buy' rating on August 7, 2026. These positive revisions and endorsements from the analyst community contributed to increased investor confidence and buying interest in CFR shares.
Show more
Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) stock has gained about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Upbeat Guidance. Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) reported robust fiscal Q2 2026 results on July 30, 2026, with net income rising to $170 million, a 9.7% increase year-over-year from $155 million. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) grew 13% to $2.70 from $2.39 in fiscal Q2 2025, surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $2.54-$2.57 by 5.2% to 6.4%. Revenue for the quarter reached $598.3 million, up 9.4% year-over-year, exceeding analyst expectations by 1.6%. Key drivers included a 7.4% year-over-year growth in average loans to $22.6 billion and widening net interest margins. Management subsequently raised its full-year guidance, projecting net interest income growth of 4.75% to 5.25% (up from 3.5% to 5%), loan growth of 7% to 8% (up from 6% to 7%), and noninterest income growth of 7.5% to 8.5% (up from 4% to 5%), while simultaneously lowering expense growth expectations to 4.5% to 5% (down from 5% to 6%).
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Revisions. Following the strong fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, several prominent analysts revised their ratings and significantly increased their price targets for Cullen/Frost Bankers. For instance, Stephens lifted its price target from $169.00 to $183.00 with an "overweight" rating on July 31, 2026. TD Cowen raised its price objective from $169.00 to $185.00 and issued a "buy" rating on August 3, 2026. Royal Bank of Canada also increased its target from $168.00 to $176.00 with a "sector perform" rating on July 31, 2026. Additionally, Zacks Research upgraded the stock to a 'Strong-Buy' rating on August 7, 2026. These positive revisions and endorsements from the analyst community contributed to increased investor confidence and buying interest in CFR shares.
3. Strategic Organic Growth and Market Expansion in Texas. Cullen/Frost Bankers continued to execute its organic growth strategy within its core Texas markets. The company expanded its presence by opening seven new locations in the Dallas and Austin areas during the year. This focus on relationship-based banking and strategic branch expansion in high-growth regions of Texas, as highlighted in an investor presentation dated June 30, 2026, was instrumental in driving customer acquisition and contributing to the robust loan growth observed in fiscal Q2 2026.
4. Favorable Regional Banking Sector Environment. The broader regional banking sector experienced a positive environment during the period, which provided a tailwind for CFR's stock. Softer-than-expected July CPI data helped ease concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, thereby boosting sentiment across regional banks. Furthermore, the banking industry, including FDIC-insured institutions, reported higher earnings in fiscal Q2 2026, with an improved average return on assets of 1.37%, an 11 basis point increase from the prior quarter. This sector-wide improvement was fueled by strong growth in noninterest income, securities gains, and net interest income, creating a supportive backdrop for Cullen/Frost Bankers' performance.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.1% change in CFR stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 134.66 | 161.66 | 20.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,270 | 2,299 | 1.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.5% | 29.7% | 1.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.7 | 14.8 | 16.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 63 | 62 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CFR | 20.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | -5.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.8% | 45.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.6% change in CFR stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 136.30 | 161.66 | 18.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,235 | 2,299 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.0% | 29.7% | 2.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.4 | 14.8 | 10.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 64 | 62 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CFR | 18.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.8% | 9.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 12.7% | 53.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.0% change in CFR stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 125.34 | 161.66 | 29.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,141 | 2,299 | 7.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.5% | 29.7% | 4.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.2 | 14.8 | 11.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 64 | 62 | 3.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CFR | 29.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.6% | 22.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.1% | 60.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 86.0% change in CFR stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 85.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 86.90 | 161.66 | 86.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,953 | 2,299 | 17.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 35.9% | 29.7% | -17.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.0 | 14.8 | 85.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 64 | 62 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 86.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CFR | 86.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 47.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 75.2% | 69.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CFR Return | 48% | 9% | -17% | 28% | -3% | 28% | 113% |
| Peers Return | 26% | -12% | 2% | 14% | 6% | 10% | 49% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CFR Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 47% | 45% | 53% | 55% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CFR Max Drawdown | -19% | -21% | -37% | -18% | -27% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -31% | -39% | -16% | -23% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PB, ZION, TCBI, FFIN, HTH. See CFR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CFR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 538 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -10.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Cullen/Frost Bankers's stock fell -26.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 36.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | CFR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 538 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 171 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -43.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 268 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Cullen/Frost Bankers's stock fell -26.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 36.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR)
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) is a bank holding company that primarily operates through its subsidiary, Frost Bank. It offers a comprehensive suite of commercial and consumer banking services, with its operations exclusively focused within the state of Texas. The company serves its diverse customer base across Texas through an extensive network of approximately 157 financial centers and 1,650 automated-teller machines (ATMs).
CFR's core offerings are categorized into its Banking and Frost Wealth Advisors segments. The Banking segment provides commercial services such as financing for industrial and commercial properties, equipment, and acquisitions, alongside treasury management. For consumers, it offers checking and savings accounts, various loan products including real estate and home equity loans, and basic brokerage services. The company also handles international banking services, including foreign exchange and letters of credit.
Beyond traditional banking, CFR extends its services to include trust, investment, agency, and custodial functions for individual and corporate clients, as well as investment management for mutual funds and institutions. It also provides capital market services, insurance, and securities brokerage. CFR caters to a broad spectrum of clients, from individual consumers and corporations across vital Texas industries like energy, manufacturing, and healthcare, to acting as a correspondent bank for numerous financial institutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR):
- The JPMorgan Chase of Texas.
- Like a Bank of America, but concentrated solely in Texas.
- A Texas-only Wells Fargo.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) offers the following major products and services:
- Commercial Banking: Provides financing for industrial, commercial, and construction properties, equipment, inventories, and acquisitions, along with commercial leasing and treasury management services to businesses.
- Consumer Banking: Offers checking and savings accounts, various loan types (installment, real estate, home equity), and ATM services for individual customers.
- Wealth Management & Investment Services: Delivers trust, investment, agency, custodial, and investment management services for individual and corporate clients.
- International Banking: Facilitates international business activities through services such as deposits, loans, letters of credit, foreign collections, and foreign exchange.
- Capital Markets Services: Provides sales and trading, new issue underwriting, money market trading, advisory, and securities safekeeping and clearance services.
- Insurance & Securities Brokerage: Offers a range of insurance products and securities brokerage services to clients.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) is a diversified financial services company serving both businesses and individuals. Due to the nature of its banking and financial services operations, it does not typically have "major customers" in the traditional sense of a small number of large corporate clients. Instead, it serves a broad and varied customer base across multiple categories.
The primary categories of customers that Cullen/Frost Bankers serves are:
- Commercial and Business Clients: This category includes corporations and other business entities across various industries such as energy, manufacturing, services, construction, retail, telecommunications, healthcare, military, and transportation. These clients utilize services like commercial banking, financing for properties and equipment, commercial leasing, treasury management, and capital market services.
- Individual Consumers: This segment comprises individual customers who utilize a range of consumer banking services including checking accounts, savings programs, installment and real estate loans, home equity loans and lines of credit, and brokerage services.
- Wealth Management and Investment Clients: This category serves both individual and corporate clients seeking trust, investment, agency, and custodial services, as well as investment management for mutual funds, institutions, and individuals, primarily through its Frost Wealth Advisors segment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Phillip D. Green Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Phillip D. Green joined Cullen/Frost Bankers in July 1980. He served as Chief Financial Officer from 1995 to 2015 and then as President in 2015, before assuming the role of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer in 2016. Prior to joining Frost, he spent three years in public accounting with Ernst & Ernst. Mr. Green graduated with honors from the University of Texas at Austin with a bachelor's degree in accounting. He currently serves on the Federal Reserve Board's Federal Advisory Council.
Daniel J. Geddes Group Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Daniel J. Geddes was appointed Group Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective January 1, 2025. He joined Cullen/Frost Bankers in 1997, starting his career as a credit analyst. Before his current role, he served as San Antonio Region President from August 2021 and held positions as Market President, Houston Expansion Lead, and Sales Manager for the Commercial Real Estate group. Mr. Geddes holds a B.S. degree from Trinity University.
Paul H. Bracher President, Group Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer
Paul H. Bracher joined Frost in 1981 and has held various roles in commercial lending, special assets, and management. He served as Chief Banking Officer since January 2015 and was named President of Cullen/Frost in April 2016. Earlier in his career, he worked for the State of Texas' Department of Banking. Mr. Bracher earned a Bachelor of Science degree in agricultural economics from Texas A&M University.
Coolidge E. Rhodes, Jr. Group Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Coolidge E. Rhodes, Jr. serves as Group Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.
Jimmy Stead Group Executive Vice President and Chief Consumer Banking and Technology Officer
Jimmy Stead holds the title of Group Executive Vice President and Chief Consumer Banking and Technology Officer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) business are:
- Concentration Risk in the Texas Economy, with particular sensitivity to the Energy and Commercial Real Estate (CRE) sectors: Cullen/Frost Bankers operates exclusively within the Texas market, making its financial performance highly dependent on the state's economic health. A significant downturn in the Texas economy, especially one impacting the energy or commercial real estate sectors, could severely affect the bank's loan portfolio quality, loan demand, and overall profitability.
- Credit Risk and Asset Quality, particularly concerning its Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loan portfolio: The bank exhibits a high concentration in commercial real estate lending. A deterioration in the credit quality of this portfolio, potentially due to market downturns or challenges as CRE debt matures, presents a significant risk to the bank's asset quality and overall financial stability.
- Interest Rate Risk and Rising Funding Costs: As a banking institution, Cullen/Frost Bankers' profitability is significantly influenced by fluctuations in interest rates. Unfavorable movements in interest rates, such as sustained higher funding costs or a narrowing of net interest margins, can negatively impact its net interest income and overall earnings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The rise of digital-first banks, often referred to as neobanks or challenger banks, poses a clear emerging threat to Cullen/Frost Bankers' traditional consumer and commercial banking segments. These entities operate with significantly lower overhead due to their lack of physical branches and often offer superior digital experiences, competitive interest rates, and lower fees, directly competing for deposits, payments, and various loan types without the infrastructure costs associated with Frost Bank's 157 financial centers and 1,650 ATMs. Additionally, specialized fintech platforms offering services like online lending (for both consumers and businesses) and automated investment advisory (robo-advisors) threaten to unbundle traditional banking services, capturing specific revenue streams and customer relationships that Frost Bank traditionally serves through its lending products and Frost Wealth Advisors segment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) operates primarily in Texas, offering a range of commercial and consumer banking, wealth management, and capital market services. The addressable markets for its main products and services, predominantly within the U.S. and specifically in Texas where available, are substantial:
- Commercial Banking Services: The commercial banking market in Texas is estimated to be approximately $108.7 billion in 2026. More broadly, the U.S. commercial banking market is estimated at USD 765.53 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 954.48 billion by 2031. The commercial banking market in Texas has experienced significant growth in 2025 and is expected to surpass national growth rates through 2031.
- Consumer Banking Services: The U.S. retail banking market, which encompasses consumer banking services like checking accounts, savings programs, and loans, was valued at USD 870 billion in 2025. It is estimated to grow from USD 906.3 billion in 2026 to reach USD 1,112.2 billion by 2031.
- Wealth Management and Advisory Services: The U.S. wealth management market is extraordinarily vast. Robo-advisors alone managed over $1 trillion in assets as of 2025, with forecasts predicting this figure could approach $2 trillion within the next couple of years. The U.S. private banking market, a segment of wealth management, is valued at USD 59.54 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 94.89 billion by 2030. Globally, the wealth management market was valued at $1.25 trillion in 2020 and is projected to reach $3.43 trillion by 2030, with North America holding the largest share. Another report indicates the global wealth management market is worth USD 1636.83 billion in 2024 and is expected to surpass USD 4893.17 billion by 2034.
- Capital Market Services (including underwriting and advisory): The U.S. investment banking market stands at USD 54.74 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 66.15 billion by 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Organic Branch Expansion in Texas: The company is actively pursuing an organic expansion strategy by opening new branches in high-growth Texas markets, including Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Austin. This initiative is designed to increase market share, attract new customers, and generate both deposit and loan growth. Management anticipates opening 12-15 additional branches in 2026. This expansion has already resulted in significant additions of deposits and loans, along with over 78,000 new households.
- Robust Loan Growth: Cullen/Frost Bankers projects full-year average loan growth to be in the range of 5% to 7% for 2026. This growth is expected across both commercial and consumer segments, with strong performance in commercial real estate, energy, and consumer real estate lending, including home equity and mortgage products. The mortgage lending platform, in particular, exceeded its goals in 2025. Analysts also forecast organic loan growth of 8% in 2026 and 10% in 2027.
- Net Interest Income (NII) and Net Interest Margin (NIM) Improvement: Management expects net interest income to grow by 3% to 5% for the full year 2026. This is coupled with a projected improvement in the net interest margin (NIM) of approximately 5 to 10 basis points compared to the full-year 2025 margin of 3.66%. This positive outlook is partially influenced by anticipated adjustments in the Fed funds rate.
- Growth in Noninterest Income and Diversification: The company forecasts noninterest income growth of 4% to 5% for the full year 2026. This growth is supported by strategic efforts such as the expansion of mortgage and insurance offerings, and the reorganization of Frost Wealth Advisors to position it for long-term growth.
- Strong Organic Customer and Deposit Growth: Cullen/Frost is focused on sustained organic customer acquisition, especially in checking household accounts, which is considered a key indicator for future business. The ongoing expansion strategy consistently contributes to adding new households and growing the deposit base, with average deposits expected to increase by 2% to 3% in 2026.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) has made several capital allocation decisions over the last 3-5 years, focusing on share repurchases, managing share issuances, and strategic capital expenditures for organic growth.
Share Repurchases
- Cullen/Frost Bankers authorized a new $300 million share repurchase program on January 29, 2026, set to expire on January 27, 2027.
- In 2025, the company repurchased 1.20 million shares, completing its $150 million authorization for the year.
- In 2024, the company repurchased 489,862 shares for $50.0 million under a publicly announced plan and an additional 87,775 shares for $10.9 million related to the vesting of share awards.
- In 2023, Cullen/Frost repurchased 400,868 shares for $39.0 million under a publicly announced plan, in addition to 35,897 shares for $3.5 million related to share award vesting.
Share Issuance
- The number of common shares outstanding was 63,201,792 as of February 4, 2026.
- Common shares outstanding were 64,235,032 as of January 30, 2025, and 64,202,891 as of February 2, 2024.
- Share issuances primarily stem from stock-based compensation plans, such as the vesting and settlement of restricted stock units for executives, which are often offset by share repurchases to mitigate dilution.
Outbound Investments
- Cullen/Frost Bankers primarily focuses on an organic growth strategy within its Texas markets.
- While the company's cash flow from investing activities shows significant negative figures, indicating purchases of investment securities and property and equipment, no specific large strategic investments in other companies have been reported within the last 3-5 years.
Capital Expenditures
- A primary focus of capital expenditures is the organic expansion strategy through the opening of new financial centers in key Texas markets.
- In 2025, the company opened 10 new financial centers across the Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio markets.
- Capital expenditures amounted to -$146.65 million in the last 12 months (as of an unspecified date in the provided data).
Peer Outperformance in Regional Banks
nullLatest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 70.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.0 |
| Rev LTM | 1,330 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 506 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 413 |
| CFO LTM | 554 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 493 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 41.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 39.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banking | 2,031 | 1,875 | 1,814 | 1,526 | 1,211 |
| Frost Wealth Advisors | 217 | 204 | 187 | 181 | 170 |
| Non-Banks | -13 | -15 | -13 | -11 | -9 |
| Total | 2,235 | 2,064 | 1,987 | 1,696 | 1,372 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banking | 297 | 311 | 278 | 298 | 288 |
| Frost Wealth Advisors | 31 | 33 | 24 | 22 | 14 |
| Non-Banks | -8 | -8 | -11 | -12 | -15 |
| Total | 320 | 336 | 291 | 308 | 286 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banking | 626 | 561 | 579 | 552 | 415 |
| Frost Wealth Advisors | 36 | 37 | 33 | 38 | 37 |
| Non-Banks | -20 | -22 | -21 | -18 | -16 |
| Total | 642 | 576 | 591 | 572 | 436 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2021 | 2005 | 2004 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banking | 49,536 | 45,903 | 10,080 | 9,590 | 8 |
| Frost Wealth Advisors | 59 | 70 | |||
| Non-Banks | 9 | 10 | |||
| Financial Management Group | 47 | 13 | 0 | ||
| Frost Securities | 0 | ||||
| Total | 49,604 | 45,983 | 10,127 | 9,603 | 8 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $161.66 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 10.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $160.89 | $141.01 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.5% | 14.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 18.6% | 20.9% |
| Downside Capture | -35.50 | 15.43 |
| Upside Capture | 57.58 | 41.02 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -6.9% | 22.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.20 | 0.10 | -0.13 | 0.11 | 0.35 | 0.85 |
| Up Beta | 0.46 | -0.40 | -0.64 | 0.13 | 0.51 | 0.89 |
| Down Beta | 0.58 | 0.08 | -0.16 | 0.05 | 0.45 | 0.92 |
| Up Capture | -19% | 40% | 45% | 24% | 29% | 57% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 38 | 71 | 134 | 391 |
| Down Capture | 39% | 15% | -44% | -9% | 16% | 90% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 26 | 56 | 116 | 359 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CFR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFR | 28.6% | 20.9% | 1.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 8.9% | 14.6% | 0.36 | 60.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.6% | 12.8% | 1.19 | 22.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.8% | 29.1% | 0.73 | -1.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 41.7% | 20.4% | 1.60 | -9.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.7% | 13.6% | 0.43 | 43.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.7% | 43.5% | -0.72 | 8.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CFR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFR | 10.2% | 29.9% | 0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.1% | 18.4% | 0.41 | 70.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 51.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.5% | 0.43 | 11.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 47.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.5% | 52.6% | 0.37 | 19.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CFR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFR | 11.7% | 33.0% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.5% | 22.1% | 0.56 | 78.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 58.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.2% | 16.3% | 0.61 | -9.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 23.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 51.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.0% | 66.1% | 1.03 | 12.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -2.1% | -0.5% | -3.3% |
| 4/30/2026 | 1.5% | -1.4% | -4.4% |
| 1/29/2026 | 2.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% |
| 10/30/2025 | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% |
| 7/31/2025 | -4.9% | -7.7% | -2.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | 3.3% | 5.3% | 9.9% |
| 1/30/2025 | 1.2% | 1.1% | -0.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -4.4% | -3.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.1% | 10.1% | 31.9% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -9.9% | -18.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -2.1% | -0.5% | -3.3% |
| 4/30/2026 | 1.5% | -1.4% | -4.4% |
| 1/29/2026 | 2.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% |
| 10/30/2025 | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% |
| 7/31/2025 | -4.9% | -7.7% | -2.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | 3.3% | 5.3% | 9.9% |
| 1/30/2025 | 1.2% | 1.1% | -0.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% |
| 7/25/2024 | 3.4% | 2.8% | -4.2% |
| 4/25/2024 | -5.2% | -9.9% | -12.8% |
| 1/25/2024 | 0.5% | -2.4% | -1.3% |
| 10/26/2023 | 10.1% | 7.4% | 18.3% |
| 7/27/2023 | -7.6% | -6.9% | -18.0% |
| 4/27/2023 | 6.6% | -4.4% | 1.1% |
| 1/26/2023 | -2.8% | -5.0% | -3.3% |
| 10/27/2022 | 4.4% | 9.7% | 4.2% |
| 7/28/2022 | -0.3% | 1.6% | 4.2% |
| 4/28/2022 | 2.7% | 2.2% | -7.0% |
| 1/27/2022 | 4.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% |
| 10/28/2021 | 3.0% | 8.8% | 2.0% |
| 7/29/2021 | 1.2% | 3.3% | 6.4% |
| 4/29/2021 | 3.7% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| 1/28/2021 | -4.1% | -2.4% | 8.8% |
| 10/29/2020 | 3.3% | 3.0% | 31.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -4.4% | -3.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.1% | 10.1% | 31.9% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -9.9% | -18.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/04/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/05/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/04/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/31/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Dividends | Reported | 11.1 | ||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Dividends | Reported | 1.03 | 3.0% | 3.0% | Raised | Actual: 1 for Q1 2026 | ||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Dividends | Reported | 1 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Actual: 1 for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 300.00 Mil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Common Stock Dividend | Reported | 1 | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 1 for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Series B Preferred Stock Dividend | Reported | 11.1 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severyn, Carol Jean | GEVP and Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 148.29 | 837 | 124,120 | 1,885,075 | Form |
| 2 | Berman, Bobby | GEVP Research & Strategy | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 137.07 | 1,000 | 137,070 | 3,893,610 | Form |
| 3 | Pullin, Ericka Lynn | GEVP, Culture & People Dev. | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 129.72 | 0 | 43 | 262,617 | Form |
| 4 | Rhodes, Coolidge E JR | Group EVP General Counsel/Sec | Direct | Sell | 12102025 | 127.00 | 700 | 88,900 | 481,965 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Severyn, Carol Jean | GEVP and Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 148.29 | 837 | 124,120 | 1,885,075 | Form |
| 2 | Berman, Bobby | GEVP Research & Strategy | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 137.07 | 1,000 | 137,070 | 3,893,610 | Form |
| 3 | Pullin, Ericka Lynn | GEVP, Culture & People Dev. | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 129.72 | 0 | 43 | 262,617 | Form |
| 4 | Rhodes, Coolidge E JR | Group EVP General Counsel/Sec | Direct | Sell | 12102025 | 127.00 | 700 | 88,900 | 481,965 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Regional Banks Resources |
| Bank Director |
| Independent Banker |
| S&P Global Market Intelligence |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.