Capitol Federal Financial (CFFN)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $7.14 | Market Cap: $927.3 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Capitol Federal Financial (CFFN)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $7.14Market Cap: $927.3 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 4.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9%, FCF Yield is 5.3% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.2%, Dist 3Y High is -4.2% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 89% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% | Key risksCFFN key risks include [1] significant profit sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations due to its balance sheet structure and [2] declining deposit levels necessitating a greater reliance on borrowings for funding. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 4.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9%, FCF Yield is 5.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.2%, Dist 3Y High is -4.2% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 89% |
| Key risksCFFN key risks include [1] significant profit sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations due to its balance sheet structure and [2] declining deposit levels necessitating a greater reliance on borrowings for funding. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CFFN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the approximate 12.3% movement in Capitol Federal Financial (CFFN) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 20, 2025:
1. Special Dividend Declaration and Share Repurchase Program. On December 17, 2025, Capitol Federal Financial announced a special cash dividend of $0.04 per share. Additionally, the company repurchased 1,577,853 shares of common stock at an average cost of $6.72 per share between October 1, 2025, and December 16, 2025, demonstrating a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
2. Strong Overall Financial Performance in 2025. Capitol Federal Financial reported significant growth in its financial performance for the year 2025, with revenue increasing by 20.62% to $200.29 million and earnings rising by 78.91% to $67.94 million compared to the previous year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CFFN Return | -5% | -2% | -16% | -21% | -3% | 30% | -23% |
| Peers Return | -11% | 33% | -1% | -6% | 20% | 6% | 40% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CFFN Win Rate | 33% | 33% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 45% | 47% | 58% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CFFN Max Drawdown | -35% | -9% | -32% | -49% | -25% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -0% | -16% | -30% | -10% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UMBF, CBSH, BOKF, GSBC, NWBI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CFFN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 237.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
Capitol Federal Financial's stock fell -70.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -70.4% loss requires a 237.9% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CFFN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -4.8% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.8% | 5.8% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.1% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Capitol Federal Financial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 58.58 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,182 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 125 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 110 |
| CFO LTM | 156 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 114 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 13.9 |
| P/CFO | 13.8 |
| Total Yield | 10.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 15.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -4.3% | -0.1% | 7.0% |
| 7/23/2025 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% |
| 1/29/2025 | 2.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% |
| 10/23/2024 | 7.0% | 7.2% | 10.1% |
| 7/24/2024 | -3.7% | -5.2% | -12.8% |
| 4/24/2024 | -1.9% | -9.7% | -0.2% |
| 1/24/2024 | -0.7% | 8.2% | -2.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 1.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -4.1% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.0% | 22.6% | 24.5% |
| Max Negative | -10.5% | -11.0% | -12.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11262025 | 10-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11272024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11292023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11232022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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