Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%

Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 7.9%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.2 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Online Marketplaces, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -29%

Key risks
CART key risks include [1] intense competition from major retail partners developing their own delivery services and [2] regulatory challenges to its operational model's heavy reliance on independent contractors.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 7.9%
3 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.2 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Online Marketplaces, Show more.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -29%
7 Key risks
CART key risks include [1] intense competition from major retail partners developing their own delivery services and [2] regulatory challenges to its operational model's heavy reliance on independent contractors.

CART in ETFs

Weight = CART's share of each fund

VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWB0.01%
IJH0.21%
VB0.08%
XOVR2.1%
MDYV0.46%
IJJ0.45%
+18 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 6/24/2026

Maplebear (CART) stock has gained about 25% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance Exceeding Revenue Expectations.

Maplebear reported robust financial results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ending March 2026), demonstrating significant growth. The company announced total revenue of US$1.02 billion, a 14% increase year-over-year, which surpassed analyst estimates by 1.2% to 1.5% and marked the first time revenue crossed the $1 billion threshold in a single quarter. Additionally, Gross Transaction Value (GTV) reached US$10.29 billion, up 13% year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA grew by 23% year-over-year to US$300 million. This strong performance signaled healthy operational execution and contributed significantly to investor confidence.

2. Accelerated Growth in Higher-Margin Advertising and Enterprise Offerings.

The company demonstrated strong momentum in its higher-margin advertising and enterprise segments, which are crucial for long-term profitability. Advertising and other revenue increased by 16% year-over-year in fiscal Q1 2026, marking its fastest growth rate since fiscal Q3 2023. Maplebear also expanded its enterprise solutions, with its Carrot Ads platform reaching over 310 partners and 9,000+ active brands, and Storefront Pro powering more than 380 retailer sites. Key developments included a new partnership with Fareway, which adopted Instacart's Storefront Pro and joined Carrot Ads in March 2026, and the launch of AI-powered "Caper Carts" with Weis Markets in June 2026, with further rollouts planned. These initiatives highlight the company's strategic shift towards a diversified, technology-driven platform.

Show more
Updated on 6/24/2026

Maplebear (CART) stock has gained about 25% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance Exceeding Revenue Expectations.

Maplebear reported robust financial results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ending March 2026), demonstrating significant growth. The company announced total revenue of US$1.02 billion, a 14% increase year-over-year, which surpassed analyst estimates by 1.2% to 1.5% and marked the first time revenue crossed the $1 billion threshold in a single quarter. Additionally, Gross Transaction Value (GTV) reached US$10.29 billion, up 13% year-over-year, and Adjusted EBITDA grew by 23% year-over-year to US$300 million. This strong performance signaled healthy operational execution and contributed significantly to investor confidence.

2. Accelerated Growth in Higher-Margin Advertising and Enterprise Offerings.

The company demonstrated strong momentum in its higher-margin advertising and enterprise segments, which are crucial for long-term profitability. Advertising and other revenue increased by 16% year-over-year in fiscal Q1 2026, marking its fastest growth rate since fiscal Q3 2023. Maplebear also expanded its enterprise solutions, with its Carrot Ads platform reaching over 310 partners and 9,000+ active brands, and Storefront Pro powering more than 380 retailer sites. Key developments included a new partnership with Fareway, which adopted Instacart's Storefront Pro and joined Carrot Ads in March 2026, and the launch of AI-powered "Caper Carts" with Weis Markets in June 2026, with further rollouts planned. These initiatives highlight the company's strategic shift towards a diversified, technology-driven platform.

3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets.

Throughout the period, several Wall Street analysts issued or reiterated "Buy" ratings and increased their price targets for Maplebear. For instance, Needham reiterated a "Buy" rating on February 13, 2026, and later raised its price target to $55 from $50. Barclays set a price target of $69 on May 7, 2026, and Citizens set a target of $60 on June 15, 2026. The consensus among analysts shifted positively, with 20 to 31 analysts issuing a "Buy" consensus rating and an average price target ranging from $50 to $54.50. This optimistic outlook from the analyst community provided a positive catalyst for the stock's appreciation.

4. Strategic Capital Allocation via Share Buybacks.

Maplebear's commitment to returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks bolstered investor confidence. In fiscal Q1 2026, the company repurchased US$349 million of its shares and announced a significant US$1 billion increase to its existing share buyback authorization. These actions signal management's belief in the company's intrinsic value and future prospects, which can lead to a reduced share count and increased earnings per share, thereby supporting the stock's upward trend.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 24.2% change in CART stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820266242026Change
Stock Price ($)37.5146.6024.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,7423,8643.3%
Net Income Margin (%)11.9%12.6%5.1%
P/E Multiple21.423.07.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2552396.8%
Cumulative Contribution24.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 6/24/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CART24.2% 
Market (SPY)7.2%4.0%
Sector (XLP)-5.7%5.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 10.9% change in CART stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)113020256242026Change
Stock Price ($)42.0146.6010.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,6333,8646.4%
Net Income Margin (%)14.1%12.6%-11.3%
P/E Multiple21.723.06.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)26523910.7%
Cumulative Contribution10.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 6/24/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CART10.9% 
Market (SPY)7.9%6.8%
Sector (XLP)7.8%-3.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 2.0% change in CART stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)53120256242026Change
Stock Price ($)45.6746.602.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,4553,86411.8%
Net Income Margin (%)12.5%12.6%0.2%
P/E Multiple27.723.0-16.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2622399.7%
Cumulative Contribution2.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2025 to 6/24/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CART2.0% 
Market (SPY)25.8%7.7%
Sector (XLP)4.8%2.9%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

5/31/2023 to 6/24/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CART  
Market (SPY)82.4%26.0%
Sector (XLP)26.1%15.2%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
CART Return---30%76%9%2%37%
Peers Return45%4%12%62%1%7%196%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%8%96%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CART Win Rate--0%67%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate65%52%50%65%53%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CART Max Drawdown----23%-34%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-28%-13%-17%-30%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KR, CASY, CART, SFM, ACI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/24/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventCARTS&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-30.2%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven43.3%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven89 days24 days

Compare to KR, CASY, CART, SFM, ACI

In The Past

Maplebear's stock fell -6.7% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 7.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventCARTS&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-30.2%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven43.3%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven89 days24 days

Compare to KR, CASY, CART, SFM, ACI

In The Past

Maplebear's stock fell -6.7% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 7.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Maplebear (CART)

Maplebear, operating as Instacart, is a prominent grocery technology company dedicated to digitizing the grocery industry. It partners with over 1,400 national, regional, and local retail banners, collectively representing more than 85% of the U.S. grocery market, to facilitate their digital transformation and power their online sales. Instacart’s core mission is to make grocery shopping effortless by connecting consumers to their favorite stores for convenient on-demand delivery or pickup, having processed approximately $29 billion in Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) in 2022.

The company offers a multi-faceted technology platform that serves various stakeholders within the grocery ecosystem. Its main products include the Instacart Marketplace, a consumer-facing app and website used by 7.7 million monthly active orderers to shop from a wide selection of retailers. For its retail partners, Instacart provides the Instacart Enterprise Platform, an end-to-end suite of technologies spanning eCommerce, fulfillment, connected stores, and marketing. Additionally, Instacart Ads allows over 5,500 CPG brands to effectively engage with high-intent customers directly at the point of purchase, leveraging first-party data to drive product discovery and sales.

Instacart’s primary customers and markets encompass retailers seeking to grow their online presence, consumers desiring selection and convenience across various shopping occasions (from weekly shops to quick needs), and CPG brands aiming for measurable advertising returns. The platform also provides flexible earning opportunities for approximately 600,000 shoppers who fulfill orders. By continuously investing in grocery-specific technology and leveraging its vast scale and data insights, Instacart aims to improve experiences for all constituents, ensuring retailers, customers, brands, and shoppers thrive in an increasingly digital grocery landscape.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Maplebear (Instacart):

  • DoorDash for groceries
  • Shopify for grocery retailers
  • Amazon's advertising platform, but for grocery products

AI Analysis | Feedback

Maplebear (Instacart) Major Products and Services:

  • Instacart Marketplace: Connects customers to their favorite retailers for online grocery shopping, offering on-demand delivery or pickup services.
  • Instacart Enterprise Platform: Provides retailers with a suite of technology solutions for eCommerce, fulfillment, Connected Stores, ads, marketing, and insights to power their own online operations.
  • Instacart Ads: Enables CPG brands to engage with high-intent customers and drive sales through measurable, targeted advertising solutions and insights.
  • Instacart+: A membership program offering customers benefits such as unlimited free delivery, reduced service fees, and credit back on eligible pickup orders.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Maplebear (CART), doing business as Instacart, primarily sells its technology and marketplace services to other companies, specifically retailers.

Its major customers are the more than 1,400 national, regional, and local retail banners that partner with Instacart. Examples of these retail partners that are publicly traded companies include:

  • Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST)
  • The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR)
  • Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY)
  • Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW)
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA)

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Chris Rogers
Chief Executive Officer

Chris Rogers was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Instacart, effective August 15, 2025. Prior to this role, he served as Instacart's Chief Business Officer, overseeing commercial operations, including retailer relationships and expansions, Ad Sales and R&D, Partnerships, and Mergers & Acquisitions. Before joining Instacart in 2019, Mr. Rogers spent nearly 11 years at Apple, where he was the Managing Director for Apple Canada, leading country strategy and driving iPhone adoption. He began his career at Procter & Gamble, where he managed relationships with Canada's largest national grocery retailers.

Emily Reuter
Chief Financial Officer

Emily Reuter serves as the Chief Financial Officer at Instacart, a position she assumed in May 2024. She joined Instacart in January 2024 as Vice President of Finance. Prior to her time at Instacart, Ms. Reuter spent nearly a decade at Uber, where she held various finance-related positions, including leading corporate finance and serving as CFO of the Mobility (Rides) business.

Varouj Chitilian
Chief Technology Officer

Varouj Chitilian is the Chief Technology Officer at Instacart, a role he took on in July 2022. He joined Instacart in November 2018 as Vice President of Engineering, where he oversaw consumer and growth teams and led significant technical milestones for the company. Before Instacart, Mr. Chitilian spent over 12 years at Google in various senior engineering positions, including Senior Director of Engineering for Consumer Payments and Senior Staff Software Engineer for Search Ads Quality. He also worked as a Software Development Manager at Oracle.

Asha Sharma
Chief Operating Officer

Asha Sharma serves as the Chief Operating Officer at Instacart. In this role, she is responsible for overseeing the company's operations and driving strategic initiatives. Her background includes senior leadership roles at Meta, Porch Group, and Microsoft, where she gained extensive experience in product management and engineering. Ms. Sharma has also served on the boards of AppLovin and Coupang.

Dani Dudeck
Chief Corporate Affairs Officer

Dani Dudeck is the Chief Corporate Affairs Officer at Instacart, where she is responsible for the company's communications, public relations, and corporate affairs strategies. Before joining Instacart in 2018, Ms. Dudeck held senior roles at Zynga, News Corp, and Edelman, bringing a wealth of experience in global communications and public relations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Maplebear's (Instacart) business include intense competition, its dependence on retail partners and the risk of retailers in-housing their e-commerce fulfillment, and ongoing regulatory scrutiny.

  1. Intense Competition: Instacart operates in a highly competitive and increasingly digital industry. The company faces significant threats from well-capitalized competitors such as Amazon, Walmart, Uber, and DoorDash, which are heavily investing in and expanding their grocery delivery operations. These rivals are forming partnerships with major retailers, which could diminish Instacart's market share and lead to a loss of exclusive relationships. This intense competition is also contributing to pricing pressure and increased operating expenses for Instacart.
  2. Dependence on Retail Partners and Risk of In-housing: Instacart relies heavily on its partnerships with over 1,400 retail banners. A significant risk is that these retail partners may increasingly develop and expand their own e-commerce and fulfillment capabilities, thereby reducing their reliance on Instacart's platform. This shift could negatively impact Instacart's contractual negotiations, lead to lower utilization of its services, or even result in the termination of existing retailer engagements. For instance, Instacart's top three retailers alone account for approximately 43% of its gross transaction value, highlighting a concentration risk.
  3. Regulatory Scrutiny and Worker Classification: Instacart faces substantial risks related to heavy regulation, including those concerning worker classification and privacy laws. The company has already incurred a $60 million penalty from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) for deceptive practices related to subscription sign-ups and its "100% satisfaction guarantee" advertisement. Furthermore, Instacart is reportedly under a separate FTC probe regarding its pricing practices, following allegations of algorithmic pricing discrepancies that led customers to pay different prices for identical items. Potential changes in gig-worker regulations could also significantly impact Instacart's operational model and costs.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

The addressable markets for Maplebear (Instacart)'s main products and services are primarily within North America.

  • Online Grocery Market: The North America online grocery shopping market was valued at approximately USD 98.87 billion in 2022. It is projected to reach nearly USD 523.15 billion by 2029, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.87% from 2023 to 2029. Another estimate places the North America online grocery shopping market at USD 100 billion.
  • Retail Media Networks Market (Instacart Ads): The global retail media platform market was valued at USD 16.1 billion in 2023. North America dominated this market in 2023, accounting for a 35% revenue share, which translates to approximately USD 5.64 billion for the region. The global retail media networks market is expected to grow from USD 23.96 billion in 2025 to USD 26.23 billion in 2026, with North America being the largest region in this market in 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Maplebear (CART) over the next 2-3 years:

  1. Expansion of Instacart Ads Platform: Instacart anticipates significant revenue growth from its advertising business, with projections indicating it could constitute 30-40% of its total revenue in the coming years. This growth is expected to be fueled by diversifying its advertiser base to include emerging and mid-sized brands, expanding ad placements beyond its own app to retailer websites, and developing new advertising products that leverage first-party transaction data and artificial intelligence for personalized recommendations.
  2. Growth of Instacart Enterprise Platform and Connected Stores: Instacart is focused on growing its business-to-business (B2B) technology solutions, known as the Instacart Enterprise Platform. This platform provides retailers with tools for e-commerce, fulfillment, and in-store digitization. Key initiatives include onboarding new retail partners (with 40 net new retailers projected for 2025) and deepening integrations with existing ones. The expansion of "Connected Stores" with technologies like AI-powered Caper Carts and Carrot Tags is central to this strategy, enhancing the in-store shopping experience and creating new revenue streams for Instacart.
  3. Increasing Customer Engagement and Instacart+ Subscriber Growth: A core driver for revenue growth is the expansion of Instacart's monthly active orderer base and increasing customer engagement, particularly through its Instacart+ membership program. Instacart+ members typically spend two to three times more annually than non-members, and the company is observing strong new customer acquisition and retention within this program. Initiatives such as lower basket minimums for Instacart+ members also encourage more frequent orders, contributing to higher Gross Transaction Value (GTV).
  4. Diversification into New Categories and Use Cases: Instacart is actively diversifying its service offerings beyond traditional grocery deliveries. This includes expanding into new categories such as convenience stores, pharmacies, and general merchandise retailers. The company also projects growth from integrating restaurant orders, which could contribute nearly $10 million in additional revenue by 2026. This broader service portfolio aims to attract a wider customer base and increase overall order volume across various shopping needs.
  5. Continued Technological Innovation and AI Integration: Instacart's ongoing investment in research and development, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge and driving operational efficiency. This includes further development of AI for personalized shopping experiences, the expansion of the 'Connected Stores' program through smart technologies like AI-powered Caper Carts, and the exploration of automation to enhance delivery efficiency and internal operations. These innovations are expected to improve the user experience and create new monetization opportunities.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Maplebear Inc. repurchased $1.4 billion of stock in 2025, including $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a $250 million accelerated share repurchase completed in January 2026.
  • The company's board approved an increase to its share repurchase program, authorizing the repurchase of up to $2.5 billion in common stock. This program increased from the $1 billion previously authorized since June 2024.
  • As of September 30, 2025, approximately $290 million remained available under the existing repurchase program.

Share Issuance

  • Instacart completed its initial public offering (IPO) of 22,000,000 shares of its common stock at $30.00 per share, generating gross proceeds of approximately $660.0 million. Of these, 14,100,000 shares were sold by Instacart, with the remainder sold by existing stockholders.
  • Maplebear's shares outstanding significantly increased in 2024 by 121.38% from 2023, reaching 0.289 billion shares.
  • In late February 2026, Maplebear Inc. filed a US$532.61 million shelf registration for 14,572,040 common shares tied to its employee stock ownership plan.

Inbound Investments

  • In March 2021, Instacart received $265 million from a new funding round, which increased its valuation to $39 billion. The funding was led by existing investors including Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, and D1 Capital Partners.
  • In October (presumably 2020), the company secured $200 million in funding from investors such as Valiant Peregrine Fund and D1 Capital Partners, elevating its valuation to $17.7 billion.

Outbound Investments

  • In the first quarter of 2025, Instacart acquired Wynshop to enhance its integration capabilities and support white-label storefronts.

Capital Expenditures

  • Maplebear's capital expenditures were $22.0 million in 2021, $26.0 million in 2022, $56.0 million in 2023, $64.0 million in 2024, and $61.0 million in 2025.
  • The expected capital expenditures for 2026 are approximately $64.95 million.
  • Capital expenditures are primarily focused on investing in technology custom-built for online grocery to drive growth and operational efficiencies for its retail partners and to support its marketplace, advertising, and enterprise operations.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CARTKRCASYSFMACIMedian
NameMaplebearKroger Casey's .Sprouts .Albertso. 
Mkt Price46.6058.48801.3585.3914.1358.48
Mkt Cap11.236.929.78.17.211.2
Rev LTM3,864147,64216,9828,89983,17216,982
Op Inc LTM5711,890954680715715
FCF LTM8823,456667362527667
FCF 3Y Avg7522,706513375635635
CFO LTM9417,3111,3136522,3671,313
CFO 3Y Avg8146,6311,0696272,5691,069

Growth & Margins

CARTKRCASYSFMACIMedian
NameMaplebearKroger Casey's .Sprouts .Albertso. 
Rev Chg LTM11.8%0.4%9.2%10.2%3.5%9.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--0.1%3.9%11.1%2.3%3.1%
Rev Chg Q13.6%1.2%0.3%4.1%7.7%4.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.3%0.3%0.1%1.1%1.8%1.1%
Op Inc Chg LTM25.5%-50.9%24.3%14.3%-56.4%14.3%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg--17.2%14.4%22.5%-27.0%-1.4%
Op Mgn LTM14.8%1.3%5.6%7.6%0.9%5.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-13.8%2.0%5.0%7.0%1.9%2.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.4%0.2%0.3%-0.2%-1.0%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM24.4%5.0%7.7%7.3%2.8%7.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg23.3%4.5%6.8%7.8%3.2%6.8%
FCF/Rev LTM22.8%2.3%3.9%4.1%0.6%3.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg21.5%1.8%3.2%4.7%0.8%3.2%

Valuation

CARTKRCASYSFMACIMedian
NameMaplebearKroger Casey's .Sprouts .Albertso. 
Mkt Cap11.236.929.78.17.211.2
P/S2.90.21.70.90.10.9
P/Op Inc19.519.531.111.910.119.5
P/EBIT19.520.131.111.99.519.5
P/E23.036.345.716.033.233.2
P/CFO11.85.022.612.43.011.8
Total Yield4.3%5.2%2.5%6.3%7.5%5.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.4%0.3%0.0%4.5%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.7%6.1%3.4%4.1%5.7%5.7%
D/E0.00.70.10.32.10.3
Net D/E-0.10.50.10.22.10.2

Returns

CARTKRCASYSFMACIMedian
NameMaplebearKroger Casey's .Sprouts .Albertso. 
1M Rtn13.1%-13.0%-2.9%-1.5%-12.8%-2.9%
3M Rtn28.1%-16.4%12.3%13.5%-13.9%12.3%
6M Rtn2.1%-6.1%41.4%7.2%-16.7%2.1%
12M Rtn3.6%-18.7%57.4%-48.7%-32.6%-18.7%
3Y Rtn38.3%35.4%262.0%147.6%-28.4%38.3%
1M Excs Rtn14.6%-11.5%-1.3%0.0%-11.3%-1.3%
3M Excs Rtn16.1%-30.4%4.2%0.6%-27.6%0.6%
6M Excs Rtn-6.2%-13.0%36.1%-3.1%-25.0%-6.2%
12M Excs Rtn-15.9%-41.4%35.5%-72.9%-56.1%-41.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-28.6%-31.6%203.5%85.7%-95.0%-28.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single segment3,7423,3783,042  
Advertising and other   740572
Transaction   1,8111,262
Total3,7423,3783,0422,5511,834


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$46.60 
Market Cap ($ Bil)11.2 
First Trading Date09/19/2023 
Distance from 52W High-10.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$41.70$40.39
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA11.7%15.4%
 3M1YR
Volatility47.2%43.4%
Downside Capture2.7353.40
Upside Capture89.0544.87
Correlation (SPY)4.4%8.0%
CART Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-1.29-0.53-0.090.100.220.03
Up Beta-3.00-1.95-0.88-0.88-0.28-0.23
Down Beta-2.74-1.05-1.03-0.370.34-0.18
Up Capture-70%45%49%45%13%34%
Bmk +ve Days13283667141432
Stock +ve Days9223469136354
Down Capture10%74%51%86%59%91%
Bmk -ve Days7132757109318
Stock -ve Days11192955113319

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CART
CART0.2%43.0%0.12-
Sector ETF (XLP)5.9%13.2%0.182.6%
Equity (SPY)23.3%12.5%1.409.0%
Gold (GLD)17.7%27.7%0.57-2.2%
Commodities (DBC)18.2%18.6%0.764.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)11.6%13.8%0.565.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-40.6%42.4%-1.1110.9%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CART
CART5.5%45.6%0.35-
Sector ETF (XLP)6.7%13.4%0.2815.3%
Equity (SPY)13.2%17.1%0.6026.3%
Gold (GLD)16.4%18.3%0.735.0%
Commodities (DBC)6.9%19.5%0.2611.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.7%18.9%0.0418.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)10.4%54.1%0.3913.0%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CART
CART2.7%45.6%0.35-
Sector ETF (XLP)7.4%14.8%0.3715.3%
Equity (SPY)15.3%18.0%0.7326.3%
Gold (GLD)11.5%16.1%0.595.0%
Commodities (DBC)5.7%18.0%0.2411.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2318.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)57.2%66.5%0.9713.0%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date5292026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16.6 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 515202610.5%
Average Daily Volume3.1 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.3 days
Basic Shares Quantity239.3 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares6.9%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/9/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/6/2026-8.2%-10.7%-5.2%
2/12/20269.2%9.1%16.6%
11/10/20251.6%11.7%18.3%
8/7/20253.7%-11.2%-8.5%
5/1/202513.6%7.9%16.7%
2/25/2025-12.3%-21.2%-17.3%
11/12/2024-11.0%-11.5%-13.3%
8/6/20242.8%2.3%10.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive544
# Negative455
Median Positive3.7%8.5%16.6%
Median Negative-9.6%-11.5%-12.0%
Max Positive13.6%11.7%18.3%
Max Negative-12.3%-21.2%-17.3%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/6/2026-8.2%-10.7%-5.2%
2/12/20269.2%9.1%16.6%
11/10/20251.6%11.7%18.3%
8/7/20253.7%-11.2%-8.5%
5/1/202513.6%7.9%16.7%
2/25/2025-12.3%-21.2%-17.3%
11/12/2024-11.0%-11.5%-13.3%
8/6/20242.8%2.3%10.1%
5/8/2024-3.7%-12.4%-12.0%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive544
# Negative455
Median Positive3.7%8.5%16.6%
Median Negative-9.6%-11.5%-12.0%
Max Positive13.6%11.7%18.3%
Max Negative-12.3%-21.2%-17.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/10/202510-Q
06/30/202508/08/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/28/202510-K
09/30/202411/13/202410-Q
06/30/202408/09/202410-Q
03/31/202405/10/202410-Q
12/31/202303/05/202410-K
09/30/202311/13/202310-Q
06/30/202309/20/2023424B4
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/10/202510-Q
06/30/202508/08/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/28/202510-K
09/30/202411/13/202410-Q
06/30/202408/09/202410-Q
03/31/202405/10/202410-Q
12/31/202303/05/202410-K
09/30/202311/13/202310-Q
06/30/202309/20/2023424B4

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 5/31/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 GTV10.10 Bil10.18 Bil10.25 Bil-0.2% LoweredGuidance: 10.20 Bil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA290.00 Mil295.00 Mil300.00 Mil3.5% RaisedGuidance: 285.00 Mil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 GTV Growth11.0%12.0%13.0%   
Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth11.0%13.0%15.0%   

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 GTV10.12 Bil10.20 Bil10.28 Bil7.1% Higher NewGuidance: 9.53 Bil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA280.00 Mil285.00 Mil290.00 Mil-1.7% Lower NewGuidance: 290.00 Mil for Q4 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 6/17/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Blackwood-Kapral, LisaChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell617202641.243,017124,4212,055,855Form
2Gupta, Ravi Estate Planning VehicleSell604202641.51181,0007,513,87130,782,918Form
3Rogers, ChrisPresident and CEODirectSell603202640.667,893320,92939,561,448Form
4Fong, MorganChief Legal OfficerDirectSell519202639.9414,033560,41621,728,062Form
5Blackwood-Kapral, LisaChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell417202640.259,390377,9042,373,311Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Blackwood-Kapral, LisaChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell617202641.243,017124,4212,055,855Form
2Gupta, Ravi Estate Planning VehicleSell604202641.51181,0007,513,87130,782,918Form
3Rogers, ChrisPresident and CEODirectSell603202640.667,893320,92939,561,448Form
4Fong, MorganChief Legal OfficerDirectSell519202639.9414,033560,41621,728,062Form
5Blackwood-Kapral, LisaChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell417202640.259,390377,9042,373,311Form
6Blackwood-Kapral, LisaChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell318202638.749,390363,7971,840,680Form
7Fong, MorganGENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARYDirectSell313202637.09126,0834,676,95414,342,230Form
8Sarafan, Lily DirectSell227202636.533,500127,847787,320Form
9Fong, MorganGENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARYDirectSell1223202545.214,914222,16818,307,813Form
10Laughton, Mary Beth DirectSell1125202540.724,056165,168614,003Form
11Fong, MorganGENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARYDirectSell1121202541.254,914202,70216,906,478Form
12Simo, Fidji DirectSell1114202539.914,065162,25422,578,884Form
13Fong, MorganGENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARYDirectSell1022202538.853,546137,76216,609,269Form
14Simo, Fidji DirectSell1017202540.001,01440,56022,789,680Form
15Simo, Fidji DirectSell1017202539.603,051120,81222,600,511Form
16Fong, MorganGENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARYDirectSell924202542.393,546150,31518,273,015Form
17Rogers, ChrisPresident and CEODirectSell924202542.379,259392,28331,347,088Form
18Simo, Fidji DirectSell917202547.307,140337,74427,142,821Form
19Rogers, ChrisPresident and CEODirectSell822202545.778,987411,36519,422,693Form
20Fong, MorganGENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARYDirectSell819202545.653,544161,78419,840,175Form
21Simo, FidjiPRESIDENT AND CEODirectSell812202551.477,140367,46197,878,746Form
22Simo, FidjiPRESIDENT AND CEODirectSell812202551.6649,8182,573,76798,624,760Form
23Gcm, Grosvenor IncGCM Grosvenor IC SPV, LLCSell729202547.754,238,887202,406,854174,459,686Form
24Gcm, Grosvenor IncGCM Grosvenor IC SPV 2, LLCSell729202547.75565,38526,997,13423,269,434Form
25Gcm, Grosvenor IncGCM Special Opportunities Master Fund, Ltd.Sell729202547.7560,000  Form
26Gcm, Grosvenor LPGCM Grosvenor IC SPV, LLCSell729202547.754,238,887202,406,854174,459,686Form
27Gcm, Grosvenor LPGCM Grosvenor IC SPV 2, LLCSell729202547.75565,38526,997,13423,269,434Form
28Gcm, Grosvenor LPGCM Special Opportunities Master Fund, Ltd.Sell729202547.7560,000  Form
29Simo, FidjiPRESIDENT AND CEODirectSell724202550.006,640332,02897,948,477Form
30Simo, FidjiPRESIDENT AND CEODirectSell724202550.0166,5603,328,51998,287,580Form
31Fong, MorganGENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARYDirectSell722202549.164,680230,06922,220,320Form
32Danker, DanielChief Product OfficerDirectSell722202548.8210,037489,99322,954,046Form
33Simo, FidjiPRESIDENT AND CEODirectSell715202547.8614,233681,14797,245,460Form
34Simo, FidjiPRESIDENT AND CEODirectSell702202545.213,050137,89092,510,420Form
35Fong, MorganGENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARYDirectSell624202543.904,680205,43620,046,699Form
36Danker, DanielChief Product OfficerDirectSell620202543.4410,035435,93620,861,829Form
37Simo, FidjiPRESIDENT AND CEODirectSell618202543.1611,183482,60888,438,048Form
38Kopit, Levien Meredith A DirectSell609202547.454,225200,477988,338Form
39Danker, DanielChief Product OfficerDirectSell603202545.5510,035457,07722,330,601Form

CART Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

The probability-adjusted skew of 1.99x is attractive and falls into the 'Buyable' tier. The investment case hinges on the strong secular tailwind of the online grocery market (Regime B). While the competitive moat is only 'Contested', the powerful market growth provides a margin of safety, and the potential for a margin-accretive business model shift towards advertising and enterprise tech justifies the risk. The valuation is fair, providing a reasonable entry point for a high-beta compounder.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta Compounder

Maplebear operates in the online grocery delivery market, which is projected to grow at a double-digit CAGR. However, it faces 'EXISTENTIAL' and 'STRUCTURAL' competitive threats from Walmart and DoorDash, respectively. This combination of a high-growth secular trend and intense, high-stakes competition makes it a 'High-Beta Compounder', where the outcome is highly sensitive to execution and competitive dynamics.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Enterprise & Advertising Platform Transition to Higher Margin Revenue Streams

The primary long thesis for Maplebear is its strategic pivot from a low-margin marketplace intermediary to a high-margin technology and advertising platform. By expanding its B2B enterprise e-commerce solutions and growing its cost-per-click advertising business, Maplebear can significantly increase its take rate and expand operating margins, leveraging its established grocery network.

Mechanism: Maplebear captures value by selling high-margin digital advertising space to CPG brands seeking to influence consumers at the point of sale, and by licensing its e-commerce and fulfillment technology to retailers, creating stickier, recurring revenue streams independent of individual transaction volumes.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Management anticipates double-digit advertising revenue growth in 2026.
  • The company is expanding its enterprise platform, which provides e-commerce solutions to over 350 retailers.
  • There is a potential for approximately 510 basis points of operating margin expansion to reach the level of a mature marketplace peer like eBay (20.4% GAAP operating margin).
PRIMARY RISK
Market Share Erosion in Core Grocery Delivery due to Structural Cost Disadvantages

The primary friction is the structural inability to compete on price with first-party retail models, particularly Walmart. Walmart's use of its massive physical store footprint as fulfillment centers provides a structural cost advantage that Maplebear, as a third-party intermediary requiring payment for a shopper's time, cannot replicate. This is causing share loss in the 'Cost-Conscious Consumer' segment.

Mechanism: As large retailers like Walmart and Amazon enhance their own first-party delivery services (e.g., Walmart+), they offer lower all-in costs (item price + fees), pulling price-sensitive customers away from Maplebear's marketplace. This directly pressures Gross Transaction Value (GTV) growth and limits pricing power.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Maplebear's GTV grew 10% YoY in Q3 2025, significantly lower than the 25% YoY growth reported by competitor DoorDash in the same period.
  • Maplebear's business model is described as having a 'structurally higher cost per order' than a retailer using its own staff, creating a unit cost disadvantage.
  • The competitive threat from Walmart is rated as 'EXISTENTIAL', with the current win/loss status categorized as 'LOSING'.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Threshold Rationale
Gross Transaction Value (GTV) YoY Growth>10%Must keep pace with or exceed the underlying US online grocery market growth rate. A sustained dip below 10%, especially while competitors like DoorDash grow faster, would confirm the bear thesis of market share loss.
Advertising & Other Revenue YoY GrowthConsistently >15%This is the core of the bull thesis. This high-margin segment must significantly outpace overall GTV growth to drive the margin expansion story and justify a premium multiple.
Retailer First-Party Growth Rates (e.g., Walmart, Kroger)Monitor for accelerationThe growth rates of major grocers' own digital channels are a direct leading indicator of the primary competitive threat. If their growth continues to significantly outpace Maplebear's, it validates the structural risk.
Core Investment Debate

Growth Engine vs. Competitive Siege

BULL VIEW

Bulls bet the large, underpenetrated grocery TAM and growing, high-margin ad revenue will drive significant margin expansion and durable compounding, offsetting marketplace pressures.

CORE TENSION

Can Maplebear's high-margin ad business and tech platform initiatives outpace market share loss to structurally advantaged, vertically-integrated retailers like Walmart and faster-growing peers like DoorDash?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH

Q3 2025 GTV grew 10% YoY, slower than DoorDash's 25%. Q4 2025 ad revenue guidance (6-9%) shows deceleration in its most profitable segment.

BEAR VIEW

Bears see decelerating GTV growth, fragile network moat, regulatory headwinds as structural weakness, fearing erosion of the core business before new ventures.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Feb 12, 2026
Q4 2025 Earnings & Guidance
Watch: Q1 2026 guidance for GTV and Advertising Revenue growth. A return to double-digit ad growth is critical.
Q1 2026
Competitor Grocery Partnership
Watch: Announcements by DoorDash or Uber of a major new partnership with a national grocer currently exclusive to Instacart.
Monthly
Consumer Credit Data Release
Watch: Federal Reserve monthly reports on consumer credit, specifically 90+ day delinquency rates.
Anytime
Worker Reclassification Lawsuit
Watch: A major lawsuit filed by a state Attorney General or the Department of Labor challenging shopper classification.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2025-08-07
Q2 2025 Earnings
Details: Maplebear reported Q2 earnings, beating both revenue and EPS estimates. The positive results led to a significant +3.7% stock rise the following day.
+3.68%
$49.39 -> $51.21
2025-10-20
Insider Stock Sale
Details: CEO Fidji Simo sold over $160,000 in stock. The market reaction was muted (-0.4%) to this executive share sale.
-0.36%
$38.95 -> $38.81
2025-11-10
Q3 2025 Earnings & Share Buyback Increase
Details: Company reported Q3 results, beating EPS estimates. Concurrently announced an increase in its share repurchase authorization to $2.5 billion. Stock rose significantly by +5.0%.
+4.98%
$37.33 -> $39.20
2025-12-10
Insider Stock Sale
Details: General Counsel Morgan Fong sold over $222,000 in stock. The significant sale by a key insider prompted a -6.0% crash in the stock price, signaling low internal confidence.
-5.96%
$46.24 -> $43.48
2025-12-18
FTC Fine & Investigation
Details: The FTC imposed a $60M penalty on Maplebear for deceptive subscription practices. Stock had a slight -1.5% pullback as the fine addressed past conduct.
-1.53%
$45.65 -> $44.95
2026-01-27
Competitive Pressure
Details: Stock plummeted -5.9% following news reports that Amazon plans a significant expansion of its own same-day fresh grocery delivery service in 2026, a direct threat to CART's market.
-5.92%
$40.35 -> $37.96
Risk Management
Position Sizing

1% - 3%

CONSERVATIVE

Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.6x S&P). The Bearish sentiment, driven by an eroding competitive moat and only medium visibility, dictates a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.

Diversification Alternatives
MELI
SECTOR

Unlike CART, MELI has a dominant, defensible market leadership in Latin America and a synergistic, high-growth fintech arm (Mercado Pago) which widens its moat.

Core Thesis: The core thesis is a powerful, integrated e-commerce and fintech ecosystem with strong network effects, providing a durable competitive advantage in a high-growth emerging market.
UBER
SECTOR

Uber possesses greater business diversification (Mobility and Delivery) at a global scale, providing more resilience than CART's grocery-focused model.

Core Thesis: A global logistics powerhouse with two scaled, leading platforms creating strong cross-platform network effects, now pivoting to structural profitability and free cash flow generation.
How Is The Market Pricing CART?

Instacart is re-rating from a low-margin grocery delivery service into a capital-light, high-margin retail technology and advertising platform, trading at a forward P/E of ~15.3 despite GTV growth accelerating to 14%.

Filter all news through the lens of the platform's monetization efficiency and its competitive moat against large-scale rivals like Amazon and Walmart.

What will confirm the thesis

Advertising revenue growth outpacing GTV growth; announcements of new enterprise technology partnerships with major grocers (e.g., Caper Carts, Storefront Pro); market share gains from third-party sources vs. competitors; sustained double-digit GTV growth.

What will damage the thesis

Sustained lag in advertising revenue growth relative to GTV growth; loss of a major retail partner (e.g., Costco, Kroger) to a competitor or an in-house solution; announcements of major grocery-delivery offensives by Amazon, Walmart, or DoorDash.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Quarterly fluctuations in average order value (AOV) \u2014 expected due to mix-shift from restaurant orders; minor changes in shopper incentive structures \u2014 standard operational adjustments; partnerships with smaller, regional grocers \u2014 table stakes for growth.

Repricing Catalyst

The market is re-evaluating Instacart as a technology provider, not just a delivery service. This is driven by the high-margin 'Advertising and Other' segment ($294M in Q4'25), the rollout of its Enterprise Platform (powering 380+ grocer e-commerce sites), and its AI-driven operational leverage, which is expanding EBITDA margins faster than GTV growth (Q1'26 Adj. EBITDA guidance: +15-19% YoY).

What CART Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter, Feb 12, 2026
Marketplace Transaction Fees
$2.8B TTM (70.4% of Total) · % Margin
What It Is

Fees from consumers (delivery, service, subscription) and retail partners for orders placed through the Instacart app and website.

Who Pays & How

Millions of consumers pay for the convenience of on-demand grocery delivery. Retail partners like Costco, Kroger, and Albertsons pay to access Instacart's large user base and fulfillment network without large upfront capital investment.

Per-order fees from consumers and retailers, plus recurring revenue from Instacart+ subscriptions.
Competition
Walmart - In-house grocery pickup & delivery service
Walmart leverages its massive physical store footprint (90% of Americans live within 10 miles) and low prices to capture the largest share (~26-31%) of the U.S. online grocery market. [DATED: Oct 2025]
Instacart's asset-light model and partnerships with over 1,400 non-Walmart retailers (like Costco, Kroger, Publix) provide a vastly wider selection for consumers, creating a strong network effect.
Advertising & Enterprise Technology
$1.2B TTM (29.6% of Total) · % Margin
What It Is

Advertising services ('Carrot Ads') for CPG brands; Enterprise solutions including white-label e-commerce storefronts ('Storefront Pro') and smart shopping carts ('Caper Carts').

Who Pays & How

Over 9,000 CPG brands (e.g., PepsiCo) pay to promote their products to consumers at the digital point of sale. Grocers pay for the technology to power their own e-commerce and digitize their physical stores.

Cost-per-click/impression for advertising; SaaS fees for enterprise technology.
Competition
Amazon - Amazon Marketing Cloud & Retail Media Network
Amazon leverages its massive e-commerce platform, Prime membership, and extensive first-party data to offer highly integrated advertising and delivery services, commanding ~22% of the US online grocery market. [DATED: Oct 2025]
Instacart provides a retail-agnostic platform, allowing CPG brands to advertise across hundreds of different grocers. Its Carrot Ads solution powers the retail media networks for 310+ retailer sites, embedding Instacart's tech deeper into the ecosystem.
CART Evolution: Price Return by Era
2012\u20132019 · Building the Marketplace
Scaling the Two-Sided Network Private Company
Founded in 2012, Instacart's early years focused on solving the core logistics of on-demand grocery delivery. The company raised significant venture capital to expand its footprint across North America, establishing crucial partnerships with major grocers and building its network of independent shoppers. The launch of Instacart Express in 2014 was a key step in building a recurring revenue model.
2020\u20132022 · Pandemic Hypergrowth
From Convenience to Critical Infrastructure Private Company
The COVID-19 pandemic transformed Instacart into an essential service overnight, driving an unprecedented surge in order volume and GTV. This hypergrowth period led to a peak private valuation of $39 billion in March 2021. During this time, the company rapidly scaled its advertising business and began a strategic pivot toward providing enterprise technology solutions to its retail partners.
2023\u2013Present · Public Company & Tech Pivot
The Advertising & Enterprise Engine
Instacart went public via an IPO in September 2023 at a more modest ~$10 billion valuation. The post-IPO era has been defined by a strategic emphasis on the high-margin advertising business and selling enterprise technology to retailers. The company is focused on driving profitability and operating leverage, as evidenced by strong adjusted EBITDA growth and a massive $1.4 billion share repurchase program in 2025.
Market Appears To Be Aligned With Core Thesis
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Decisively outperforming and improving. Potential evidence of active institutional rotation. Volume and momentum are strongly confirming. The institutional accumulation is evident and momentum is accelerating. Earnings history is mildly supportive. The reaction or drift are positive but not both at full conviction.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+4
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
9 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Trending Up · Golden Cross
2 Momentum Accelerating
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Outperformance
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Strong Accumulation
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 6/24/2026