Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
 
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.0%
 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 45%
 
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Online Marketplaces, Show more.
 
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.0%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 45%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Online Marketplaces, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CART Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining recent movements in Maplebear (CART) stock: **1. Strong Q3 2024 Financial Performance.** Maplebear (Instacart) reported robust third-quarter 2024 results, including an 11% year-over-year increase in Gross Transaction Value (GTV) to $8,303 million and a 12% rise in total revenue to $852 million. The company also achieved its fourth consecutive quarter of positive GAAP net income, reaching $118 million, and a 39% year-over-year growth in Adjusted EBITDA to $227 million.

**2. Q4 2024 Earnings Beat, Followed by Stock Decline.** Despite reporting stronger-than-expected earnings per share of $0.53 for the fourth quarter of 2024, surpassing forecasts, Instacart's stock experienced a 9.14% drop in aftermarket trading, closing at $44.32. This decline occurred even as revenue of $883 million exceeded anticipated figures, suggesting investor concerns despite the positive earnings surprise.

**3. Integration with ChatGPT Led to Stock Jump.** In December 2025, Instacart launched an embedded shopping and checkout application within ChatGPT, becoming the first grocery partner to offer such an end-to-end shopping feature directly within the AI assistant. This strategic partnership allowed users to manage grocery lists and complete purchases directly in the chat interface, and on December 9, 2025, Instacart's shares jumped 6% in the afternoon session, ultimately closing up 3.9% from the previous close.

**4. Increased Competition from Amazon's Ultrafast Delivery Service.** Reports in early December 2025 indicated that Amazon launched its own ultrafast grocery delivery service, which was perceived as a direct challenge to Instacart's core business. This competitive development led to a 3.1% decline in Instacart's stock shortly before the ChatGPT integration announcement.

**5. Controversy Surrounding AI-Powered Dynamic Pricing.** In December 2025, several investigations and reports surfaced, accusing Instacart of utilizing AI-powered dynamic pricing strategies that allegedly presented different customers with varying prices for identical grocery items from the same stores. This practice raised concerns among consumer groups and prompted calls for federal regulatory action regarding transparency and potential price gouging.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CART Return76%8%
Peers Return62%1%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CART Win Rate0%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate50%65%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CART Max Drawdown-4%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-6%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KR, CASY, CART, ACI, SFM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

CART has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-17.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven682 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-24.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven154 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-16.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven404 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-33.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven605 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -17.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -17.5% loss requires a 21.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Maplebear (CART)

Better Bets than Maplebear (CART)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CART. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.0%7.0%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.7%-5.7%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.9%12.9%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.7%4.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.3%0.3%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.0%7.0%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.7%-5.7%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.9%12.9%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.7%4.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.3%0.3%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Maplebear

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CARTKRCASYACISFMMedian
NameMaplebearKroger Casey's .Albertso.Sprouts . 
Mkt Price44.9663.19540.0717.3679.5463.19
Mkt Cap11.944.221.09.77.811.9
Rev LTM3,633147,22516,97081,3718,65416,970
Op Inc LTM5561,5568971,558678897
FCF LTM8802,269682659458682
FCF 3Y Avg6472,251497606359606
CFO LTM9416,0621,2582,5887021,258
CFO 3Y Avg7036,1331,0332,6085841,033

Growth & Margins

CARTKRCASYACISFMMedian
NameMaplebearKroger Casey's .Albertso.Sprouts . 
Rev Chg LTM10.2%-1.8%13.3%2.1%16.6%10.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.2%4.5%2.6%11.1%3.6%
Rev Chg Q10.2%0.7%14.2%2.0%13.1%10.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.5%0.2%3.4%0.4%3.0%2.5%
Op Mgn LTM15.3%1.1%5.3%1.9%7.8%5.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-14.3%1.9%5.0%2.3%6.7%2.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%-1.6%0.1%-0.1%0.2%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM25.9%4.1%7.4%3.2%8.1%7.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.9%4.1%6.6%3.3%7.6%6.6%
FCF/Rev LTM24.2%1.5%4.0%0.8%5.3%4.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg19.2%1.5%3.2%0.8%4.7%3.2%

Valuation

CARTKRCASYACISFMMedian
NameMaplebearKroger Casey's .Albertso.Sprouts . 
Mkt Cap11.944.221.09.77.811.9
P/S3.30.31.20.11.21.2
P/EBIT17.5--6.115.715.7
P/E23.256.034.610.020.723.2
P/CFO12.77.316.73.815.112.7
Total Yield4.3%3.8%3.3%13.3%4.8%4.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.0%0.4%3.3%0.0%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.5%--5.6%4.5%5.6%
D/E0.0--1.50.20.2
Net D/E-0.2--1.50.10.1

Returns

CARTKRCASYACISFMMedian
NameMaplebearKroger Casey's .Albertso.Sprouts . 
1M Rtn9.5%-5.3%0.3%-4.7%-2.8%-2.8%
3M Rtn-3.0%-7.0%-2.4%-6.6%-41.5%-6.6%
6M Rtn3.7%-2.6%6.9%-16.9%-49.6%-2.6%
12M Rtn7.6%3.9%27.6%-8.3%-46.2%3.9%
3Y Rtn-55.4%127.0%-9.3%138.1%91.2%
1M Excs Rtn14.4%-3.0%1.3%-2.5%-2.8%-2.5%
3M Excs Rtn-6.3%-9.0%-5.8%-8.1%-41.5%-8.1%
6M Excs Rtn-10.6%-16.8%-7.3%-31.2%-63.9%-16.8%
12M Excs Rtn-7.0%-7.0%17.0%-16.5%-59.0%-7.0%
3Y Excs Rtn--29.6%48.8%-86.2%62.1%9.6%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,779,141
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-28.5%
Average Daily Volume5,226,785
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.44
Basic Shares Quantity264,895,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/20251.6%11.7% 
8/7/20253.7%-11.2%-8.5%
2/25/2025-12.3%-21.2%-17.3%
11/12/2024-11.0%-11.5%-13.3%
8/6/20242.8%2.3%10.1%
5/8/2024-3.7%-12.4%-12.0%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive321
# Negative345
Median Positive2.8%7.0%10.1%
Median Negative-11.0%-11.9%-12.7%
Max Positive3.7%11.7%10.1%
Max Negative-12.3%-21.2%-17.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023305202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231113202310-Q 9/30/2023
123120229202023424B4 12/31/2022