Tearsheet

Maplebear (CART)

Market Price (5/8/2026): $38.15 | Market Cap: $9.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail

Maplebear (CART)

Market Price (5/8/2026): $38.15
Market Cap: $9.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Food Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%

Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.4%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.8 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Online Marketplaces, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65%

Key risks
CART key risks include [1] intense competition from major retail partners developing their own delivery services and [2] regulatory challenges to its operational model's heavy reliance on independent contractors.

0	Strong revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
1	Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
2	Attractive yield FCF Yield is 9.4%
3	Stock buyback support Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.8 Bil
4	Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 41%
5	Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Online Marketplaces, Show more.
6	Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65%
7	Key risks CART key risks include [1] intense competition from major retail partners developing their own delivery services and [2] regulatory challenges to its operational model's heavy reliance on independent contractors.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

	5/8/26	2025	2024	2023	2022
Share Price CYE	$38.15	$44.98	$41.42	$23.47	�
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	9.7	11.5	10.7	6.5	-
Total Debt ($ Bil)	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total Cash ($ Bil)	0.7	0.7	1.4	2.2	1.7
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	9.1	11.5	10.7	6.5
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	2.6	3.1	3.2	2.2	-
P/EBIT TTM	19.5	23.0	21.9	-3.1	-
P/E TTM	21.8	25.7	23.5	-4.0	-
P/FCF TTM	10.7	12.6	17.2	12.3	-
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	0.8	0.8	1.0	1.0	1.0
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	8.5	8.3	10.4	9.9	9.8
P/E TTM (Sector)	10.1	10.8	13.9	13.7	14.1
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	10.4	10.6	13.5	12.7	14.3

	5/8/26	2025	2024
Share Price CYE	$38.15	$44.98	$41.42
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	9.7	11.5	10.7
Total Debt ($ Bil)	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total Cash ($ Bil)	0.7	0.7	1.4
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	9.1	11.5	10.7
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	2.6	3.1	3.2
P/EBIT TTM	19.5	23.0	21.9
P/E TTM	21.8	25.7	23.5
P/FCF TTM	10.7	12.6	17.2
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	0.8	0.8	1.0
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	8.5	8.3	10.4
P/E TTM (Sector)	10.1	10.8	13.9
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	10.4	10.6	13.5

	CART	S&P 500
REVENUE GROWTH	GOOD
Rev LTM ($ Bil)	3.7
Rev Chg Q	12.3%	8.5%
Rev Chg LTM	10.8%	7.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	10.9%	5.7%
PROFITABILITY	FAIR
Op Inc LTM ($ Bil)	0.5
CFO LTM ($ Bil)	1.0
Net Inc LTM ($ Bil)	0.4
Op Mgn LTM	13.3%	18.4%
CFO/Rev LTM	25.9%	21.0%
Net Inc Mgn	11.9%	12.9%
VALUATION	MODERATE
P/S	2.6	3.2
P/CFO	10.0	15.1
P/FCF	10.7	19.7
P/E	21.8	24.0
STABILITY	VERY GOOD
Debt/Equity	0.00	0.21
Cash/Assets	0.19	0.07

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Metric	Value	Date	Source
Gross Transaction Value (GTV)	9081000000	6302025	Link
Orders	82700000	6302025	Link
Retail Banners	more than 1,800	8072025	Link
Stores	nearly 100,000	8072025	Link
Instacart Shoppers	approximately 600,000	8072025	Link

Upcoming
5/06/2026	Earnings Release	Rev: $1.0 Bil (A) vs. $1.0 Bil (E) EPS: 0.57 (A) vs. $0.58 (E)
8/06/2026	Earnings Release	Rev: $1.0 Bil (E) EPS: $0.54 (E)

Price Chart

Return (1M):

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Maplebear (CART) stock has remained largely at the same level since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Mixed Q1 2026 Financial Results Present a Balanced Outlook.

Maplebear reported strong growth in its first quarter 2026 earnings, with total revenue surpassing $1 billion for the first time, reaching $1.019 billion, a 14% increase year-over-year, and beating analyst estimates of $1.01 billion. Gross Transaction Value (GTV) also grew 13% year-over-year to $10.288 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA increased 23% to $300 million, exceeding analyst estimates of $287.4 million. However, this positive performance was somewhat offset by a GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.57, which, while in line with some analyst expectations, missed others by $0.04 (against an estimate of $0.61) or $0.01 (against an estimate of $0.58). Furthermore, total orders grew 10% but were 2% below Street expectations, and operating cash flow and free cash flow both declined 10% year-over-year, partly due to a $60 million FTC payment. This combination of strong revenue and profitability growth, alongside some missed expectations and cash flow concerns, contributed to a neutral investor sentiment that kept the stock largely stable.

2. Sustained Analyst Confidence with Moderate Price Targets.

Analysts maintained a largely positive outlook on Maplebear, with a consensus rating of "Buy" or "Strong Buy" from multiple firms. The median price target among analysts was $54.0 as of May 6, 2026, with individual targets ranging from $45.00 to $69.00. For instance, Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $54 from $52 with an "Overweight" rating, and Jefferies reiterated a "Buy" rating with a $48.00 price target. While indicating underlying confidence in the company's long-term prospects, these price targets suggest a moderate upside rather than a rapid increase, thereby contributing to the stock's tendency to remain largely at its current level.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 2.2% change in CART stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	1312026	5072026	Change
Stock Price ($)	37.16	37.99	2.2%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	3,633	3,742	3.0%
Net Income Margin (%)	14.1%	11.9%	-15.6%
P/E Multiple	19.2	21.7	13.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	265	255	3.7%
Cumulative Contribution			2.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026

	Return	Correlation
CART	2.2%
Market (SPY)	3.6%	11.7%
Sector (XLP)	1.1%	-4.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 3.1% change in CART stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	10312025	5072026	Change
Stock Price ($)	36.86	37.99	3.1%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	3,546	3,742	5.5%
Net Income Margin (%)	13.8%	11.9%	-13.2%
P/E Multiple	19.8	21.7	9.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	263	255	2.8%
Cumulative Contribution			3.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026

	Return	Correlation
CART	3.1%
Market (SPY)	5.5%	12.7%
Sector (XLP)	11.6%	-0.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -4.8% change in CART stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).

(LTM values as of)	4302025	5072026	Change
Stock Price ($)	39.89	37.99	-4.8%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	3,378	3,742	10.8%
Net Income Margin (%)	13.5%	11.9%	-11.7%
P/E Multiple	22.6	21.7	-3.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	259	255	1.3%
Cumulative Contribution			-4.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026

	Return	Correlation
CART	-4.8%
Market (SPY)	30.4%	10.3%
Sector (XLP)	5.5%	2.8%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026

	Return	Correlation
CART
Market (SPY)	78.7%	27.3%
Sector (XLP)	17.7%	15.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	Total [1]
Returns
CART Return	-	-	-30%	76%	9%	-11%	19%
Peers Return	45%	4%	12%	62%	1%	9%	202%
S&P 500 Return	27%	-19%	24%	23%	16%	8%	96%
Monthly Win Rates [3]
CART Win Rate	-	-	0%	67%	50%	40%
Peers Win Rate	65%	52%	50%	65%	53%	56%
S&P 500 Win Rate	75%	42%	67%	75%	67%	60%
Max Drawdowns [4]
CART Max Drawdown	-	-	-31%	-4%	-16%	-27%
Peers Max Drawdown	-3%	-15%	-11%	-6%	-15%	-11%
S&P 500 Max Drawdown	-1%	-25%	-1%	-2%	-15%	-7%

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KR, CASY, CART, ACI, SFM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/7/2026 (YTD)

Event	CART	S&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
% Loss	-30.2%	-9.5%
% Gain to Breakeven	43.3%	10.5%
Time to Breakeven	89 days	24 days

Compare to KR, CASY, CART, ACI, SFM

In The Past

Maplebear's stock fell -6.7% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 7.1% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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Event	CART	S&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
% Loss	-30.2%	-9.5%
% Gain to Breakeven	43.3%	10.5%
Time to Breakeven	89 days	24 days

Compare to KR, CASY, CART, ACI, SFM

In The Past

Maplebear's stock fell -6.7% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 7.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Maplebear (CART)

Business Description Analogies Products Customers Suppliers Management Key Risks Emerging Threats Market Size Revenue Drivers Capital Allocation

Instacart is powering the future of grocery through technology. We partner with retailers to help them successfully navigate the digital transformation of their businesses. Instacart was founded in 2012 to bring the grocery industry online and help make grocery shopping effortless. We started by understanding what consumers want and then built enterprise-grade technologies that allow retailers to meet those needs. We want to enable any retailer, large or small, to drive success both online and in-store and serve their customers better in all of the ways they choose to shop. Today, more than 1,400 national, regional, and local retail banners(1) that collectively represent more than 85% of the U.S. grocery market partner with Instacart(2). We have demonstrated our ability to help our retail partners drive strong growth and stay competitive in a complex and increasingly digital industry. Our GTV, representing the online sales we power for all of our retail partners, grew at a compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of 80% between 2018 and 2022, compared to 50% for the overall online grocery market and 1% for offline grocery(3). In 2022, we generated approximately $29 billion of GTV, which makes Instacart the leading grocery technology company in North America(4). Instacart invented a new model for online grocery shopping by offering consumers on-demand delivery from the stores they know and trust. We help our retail partners reach 7.7 million monthly active orderers who spend approximately $317 per month on average on Instacart(5). Retailers reach customers through both Instacart Marketplace, where customers can shop from their favorite retailers through our app or website, and retailers’ owned and operated online storefronts that are powered by Instacart Enterprise Platform, our end-to-end technology solution encompassing eCommerce, fulfillment, Connected Stores, ads and marketing, and insights. When shopping for groceries, consumers want selection, quality, value, and convenience, and they shop in many different ways. Instacart started as a way for households to conveniently manage their weekly grocery shopping, a recurring and high order value consumer use case. Today, customers can place orders for delivery or pickup across a variety of use cases including the weekly shop, bulk stock-up, convenience, and special occasions. Customers can select the fulfillment option and speed that best serve their needs. For example, a busy parent may prefer the reliability of having their family’s groceries delivered every Sunday, but if they need a few items in the middle of the week, they can trust Instacart to help deliver the items they need with priority delivery (as fast as 30 minutes). Each order can be shopped for and delivered with care by one of the hundreds of thousands of shoppers who value the flexible earnings opportunities that Instacart provides(6). As consumers and retailers move online, CPG brands can use Instacart Ads as a new way to reach customers at the point of purchase and within minutes of delivery and consumption. Today, over 5,500 brands are using Instacart Ads and are now more easily discoverable as customers fill their digital carts(7). Instacart Ads offers brands a highly measurable ads offering that leverages first-party transaction data to move products off of store shelves more efficiently. --- Instacart Technology Grocery retailers have earned the trust and loyalty of customers over generations by offering selection, quality, value, and convenience. For more than a decade, we have invested in technology that is custom-built for online grocery. We believe our scaled marketplace provides us with unique insights into the needs of the online grocery consumer. Our strategy is to put our technology capabilities and consumer insights into the hands of our retail partners. We are investing more in technology custom-built for online grocery than any single grocer could on their own, allowing grocers to leverage our scale and investments to grow their businesses. Our technology solutions are better together. Since our founding, Instacart Marketplace has powered more than $100 billion of GTV and over 900 million orders with approximately 20 billion items ordered(8). This scale gives us unique insights into consumer buying behavior, needs, and trends across the entire grocery industry in North America. We then utilize these insights to enhance Instacart Enterprise Platform, ensuring retailers can best meet their customers’ needs across their owned and operated online and physical storefronts. Similarly, Instacart Enterprise Platform enhances Instacart Marketplace, as our deep integration with retailers allows us to expand marketplace capabilities for our customers. As we continue to scale and refine our technology and data insights across Instacart Marketplace and Instacart Enterprise Platform, our algorithms continuously improve to provide significant benefits, including better search results and recommendations, more intelligent replacements, and more seamless checkout flows, among others. Many of these benefits also enhance the value delivered to our brand partners — for example, in the second quarter of 2023, we helped customers discover over 180 million items through recommendations. This draws more brands to Instacart Ads, which yields benefits for Instacart Marketplace and Instacart Enterprise Platform. • Instacart Marketplace. Connects customers to their favorite national, regional, and local retailers on the largest online grocery marketplace in North America through our mobile app or website(9). • Instacart Enterprise Platform. Provides retailers with a suite of enterprise-grade technologies that span eCommerce, fulfillment, Connected Stores, ads and marketing, and insights. • Instacart Ads. Allows CPG brands to drive sales by engaging with customers who are actively shopping for products on Instacart, whom we refer to as high-intent customers, in a highly measurable and targeted way while also providing savings and product discovery to customers through our leading digital advertising solutions and insights. Instacart is built for the entire grocery ecosystem, improving the experiences for each of our constituents and helping them succeed: • Retailers. We enable more than 1,400 retail banners to grow by providing technology that can accelerate the digital transformation of their entire business(10). Our retail partners include national leaders such as Aldi, Costco, and Kroger, regional favorites such as Publix and Wegmans, local mainstays like Mollie Stone’s Markets, and retailers serving many specific use cases, such as Best Buy, Lowe’s, Sephora, and Walgreens. We estimate that the sales volume we power for our top 20 retail partners represented 5.0% of their total sales in 2022, up from 0.6% in 2018(11). • Customers. We help 7.7 million monthly active orderers(12) shop at their favorite retailers and enjoy selection, quality, value, and convenience. We reach over 95% of households in North America(13). Our membership program, Instacart+, offers expanded customer benefits to our 5.1 million members(14), including unlimited free delivery on orders over a certain size, a reduced service fee, credit back on eligible pickup orders, and exclusive benefits. • Brands. We represent one of the largest and fastest growing eCommerce channels for CPG brands. We provide discovery and attractive return on investment, or ROI, for over 5,500 brands through our industry-leading advertising tools and insights purpose-built for the online grocery category(15). We estimate that on average, our ads deliver more than a 15% incremental sales lift, and in some cases twice that, for our brand partners(16). Our brand partners include household brands such as Campbell’s, Nestlé, and Pepsi and emerging brands such as Banza, Chloe’s Fruit Pops, and Whisps. • Shoppers. We offer approximately 600,000 shoppers an immediate, flexible earnings opportunity that allows them to choose when and how much to work(17). Because the most important part of the job is picking the right products for customers, Instacart tends to attract people who use empathy, efficiency, communication, and problem-solving to pick, pack, and deliver an order. Shoppers are deeply valued members of the Instacart community, and we strive to make the shopping experience as seamless as possible and protect shoppers while they work. (1) As of June 30, 2023. (2) Based on total grocery sales in 2022, excluding alcohol sales. CSG. (3) Incisiv. (4) Based on total online grocery sales in 2022. (5) For the month ended June 30, 2023. (6) As of June 30, 2023. (7) Active brand partners as of June 30, 2023. (8) As of July 31, 2023. (9) Based on GTV generated on Instacart and total grocery sales in 2022. (10) As of June 30, 2023. (11) Based on total grocery sales in 2022, excluding alcohol sales. CSG. (12) For the month ended June 30, 2023. The number of monthly active orderers may overstate the number of unique individuals, as one customer may register for, and use, multiple accounts. Fluctuations in the number of monthly active orderers are not necessarily indicative of changes in our financial performance. (13) U.S. Census Bureau (July 2021) and Statistics Canada (2021). Based on number of households in Instacart’s active delivery-enabled or pickup zones as of June 30, 2023. (14) As of June 30, 2023. Includes paying Instacart+ members only and excludes free trial members. (15) Active brand partners as of June 30, 2023. (16) Based on internal tests run across all brand partners using our Sponsored Product ads offering in the quarter ended June 30, 2023 and individual tests run for select brands or types of brands. (17) Based on shoppers who completed at least one order during the month ended June 30, 2023. We were incorporated as Maplebear Inc. in Delaware in 2012, and we do business as Instacart. Our co-founders are Apoorva Mehta, Max Mullen, and Brandon Leonardo. Our principal executive offices are located at 50 Beale Street, Suite 600, San Francisco, California.

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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Maplebear (Instacart):

DoorDash for groceries
Shopify for grocery retailers
Amazon's advertising platform, but for grocery products

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Maplebear (Instacart) Major Products and Services:

Instacart Marketplace: Connects customers to their favorite retailers for online grocery shopping, offering on-demand delivery or pickup services.
Instacart Enterprise Platform: Provides retailers with a suite of technology solutions for eCommerce, fulfillment, Connected Stores, ads, marketing, and insights to power their own online operations.
Instacart Ads: Enables CPG brands to engage with high-intent customers and drive sales through measurable, targeted advertising solutions and insights.
Instacart+: A membership program offering customers benefits such as unlimited free delivery, reduced service fees, and credit back on eligible pickup orders.

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Maplebear (CART), doing business as Instacart, primarily sells its technology and marketplace services to other companies, specifically retailers.

Its major customers are the more than 1,400 national, regional, and local retail banners that partner with Instacart. Examples of these retail partners that are publicly traded companies include:

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST)
The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR)
Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY)
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW)
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA)

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Chris Rogers
Chief Executive Officer

Chris Rogers was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Instacart, effective August 15, 2025. Prior to this role, he served as Instacart's Chief Business Officer, overseeing commercial operations, including retailer relationships and expansions, Ad Sales and R&D, Partnerships, and Mergers & Acquisitions. Before joining Instacart in 2019, Mr. Rogers spent nearly 11 years at Apple, where he was the Managing Director for Apple Canada, leading country strategy and driving iPhone adoption. He began his career at Procter & Gamble, where he managed relationships with Canada's largest national grocery retailers.

Emily Reuter
Chief Financial Officer

Emily Reuter serves as the Chief Financial Officer at Instacart, a position she assumed in May 2024. She joined Instacart in January 2024 as Vice President of Finance. Prior to her time at Instacart, Ms. Reuter spent nearly a decade at Uber, where she held various finance-related positions, including leading corporate finance and serving as CFO of the Mobility (Rides) business.

Varouj Chitilian
Chief Technology Officer

Varouj Chitilian is the Chief Technology Officer at Instacart, a role he took on in July 2022. He joined Instacart in November 2018 as Vice President of Engineering, where he oversaw consumer and growth teams and led significant technical milestones for the company. Before Instacart, Mr. Chitilian spent over 12 years at Google in various senior engineering positions, including Senior Director of Engineering for Consumer Payments and Senior Staff Software Engineer for Search Ads Quality. He also worked as a Software Development Manager at Oracle.

Asha Sharma
Chief Operating Officer

Asha Sharma serves as the Chief Operating Officer at Instacart. In this role, she is responsible for overseeing the company's operations and driving strategic initiatives. Her background includes senior leadership roles at Meta, Porch Group, and Microsoft, where she gained extensive experience in product management and engineering. Ms. Sharma has also served on the boards of AppLovin and Coupang.

Dani Dudeck
Chief Corporate Affairs Officer

Dani Dudeck is the Chief Corporate Affairs Officer at Instacart, where she is responsible for the company's communications, public relations, and corporate affairs strategies. Before joining Instacart in 2018, Ms. Dudeck held senior roles at Zynga, News Corp, and Edelman, bringing a wealth of experience in global communications and public relations.

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The key risks to Maplebear's (Instacart) business include intense competition, its dependence on retail partners and the risk of retailers in-housing their e-commerce fulfillment, and ongoing regulatory scrutiny.

Intense Competition: Instacart operates in a highly competitive and increasingly digital industry. The company faces significant threats from well-capitalized competitors such as Amazon, Walmart, Uber, and DoorDash, which are heavily investing in and expanding their grocery delivery operations. These rivals are forming partnerships with major retailers, which could diminish Instacart's market share and lead to a loss of exclusive relationships. This intense competition is also contributing to pricing pressure and increased operating expenses for Instacart.
Dependence on Retail Partners and Risk of In-housing: Instacart relies heavily on its partnerships with over 1,400 retail banners. A significant risk is that these retail partners may increasingly develop and expand their own e-commerce and fulfillment capabilities, thereby reducing their reliance on Instacart's platform. This shift could negatively impact Instacart's contractual negotiations, lead to lower utilization of its services, or even result in the termination of existing retailer engagements. For instance, Instacart's top three retailers alone account for approximately 43% of its gross transaction value, highlighting a concentration risk.
Regulatory Scrutiny and Worker Classification: Instacart faces substantial risks related to heavy regulation, including those concerning worker classification and privacy laws. The company has already incurred a $60 million penalty from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) for deceptive practices related to subscription sign-ups and its "100% satisfaction guarantee" advertisement. Furthermore, Instacart is reportedly under a separate FTC probe regarding its pricing practices, following allegations of algorithmic pricing discrepancies that led customers to pay different prices for identical items. Potential changes in gig-worker regulations could also significantly impact Instacart's operational model and costs.

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The addressable markets for Maplebear (Instacart)'s main products and services are primarily within North America.

Online Grocery Market: The North America online grocery shopping market was valued at approximately USD 98.87 billion in 2022. It is projected to reach nearly USD 523.15 billion by 2029, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.87% from 2023 to 2029. Another estimate places the North America online grocery shopping market at USD 100 billion.
Retail Media Networks Market (Instacart Ads): The global retail media platform market was valued at USD 16.1 billion in 2023. North America dominated this market in 2023, accounting for a 35% revenue share, which translates to approximately USD 5.64 billion for the region. The global retail media networks market is expected to grow from USD 23.96 billion in 2025 to USD 26.23 billion in 2026, with North America being the largest region in this market in 2025.

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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Maplebear (CART) over the next 2-3 years:

Expansion of Instacart Ads Platform: Instacart anticipates significant revenue growth from its advertising business, with projections indicating it could constitute 30-40% of its total revenue in the coming years. This growth is expected to be fueled by diversifying its advertiser base to include emerging and mid-sized brands, expanding ad placements beyond its own app to retailer websites, and developing new advertising products that leverage first-party transaction data and artificial intelligence for personalized recommendations.
Growth of Instacart Enterprise Platform and Connected Stores: Instacart is focused on growing its business-to-business (B2B) technology solutions, known as the Instacart Enterprise Platform. This platform provides retailers with tools for e-commerce, fulfillment, and in-store digitization. Key initiatives include onboarding new retail partners (with 40 net new retailers projected for 2025) and deepening integrations with existing ones. The expansion of "Connected Stores" with technologies like AI-powered Caper Carts and Carrot Tags is central to this strategy, enhancing the in-store shopping experience and creating new revenue streams for Instacart.
Increasing Customer Engagement and Instacart+ Subscriber Growth: A core driver for revenue growth is the expansion of Instacart's monthly active orderer base and increasing customer engagement, particularly through its Instacart+ membership program. Instacart+ members typically spend two to three times more annually than non-members, and the company is observing strong new customer acquisition and retention within this program. Initiatives such as lower basket minimums for Instacart+ members also encourage more frequent orders, contributing to higher Gross Transaction Value (GTV).
Diversification into New Categories and Use Cases: Instacart is actively diversifying its service offerings beyond traditional grocery deliveries. This includes expanding into new categories such as convenience stores, pharmacies, and general merchandise retailers. The company also projects growth from integrating restaurant orders, which could contribute nearly $10 million in additional revenue by 2026. This broader service portfolio aims to attract a wider customer base and increase overall order volume across various shopping needs.
Continued Technological Innovation and AI Integration: Instacart's ongoing investment in research and development, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge and driving operational efficiency. This includes further development of AI for personalized shopping experiences, the expansion of the 'Connected Stores' program through smart technologies like AI-powered Caper Carts, and the exploration of automation to enhance delivery efficiency and internal operations. These innovations are expected to improve the user experience and create new monetization opportunities.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

Maplebear Inc. repurchased $1.4 billion of stock in 2025, including $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a $250 million accelerated share repurchase completed in January 2026.
The company's board approved an increase to its share repurchase program, authorizing the repurchase of up to $2.5 billion in common stock. This program increased from the $1 billion previously authorized since June 2024.
As of September 30, 2025, approximately $290 million remained available under the existing repurchase program.

Share Issuance

Instacart completed its initial public offering (IPO) of 22,000,000 shares of its common stock at $30.00 per share, generating gross proceeds of approximately $660.0 million. Of these, 14,100,000 shares were sold by Instacart, with the remainder sold by existing stockholders.
Maplebear's shares outstanding significantly increased in 2024 by 121.38% from 2023, reaching 0.289 billion shares.
In late February 2026, Maplebear Inc. filed a US$532.61 million shelf registration for 14,572,040 common shares tied to its employee stock ownership plan.

Inbound Investments

In March 2021, Instacart received $265 million from a new funding round, which increased its valuation to $39 billion. The funding was led by existing investors including Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, and D1 Capital Partners.
In October (presumably 2020), the company secured $200 million in funding from investors such as Valiant Peregrine Fund and D1 Capital Partners, elevating its valuation to $17.7 billion.

Outbound Investments

In the first quarter of 2025, Instacart acquired Wynshop to enhance its integration capabilities and support white-label storefronts.

Capital Expenditures

Maplebear's capital expenditures were $22.0 million in 2021, $26.0 million in 2022, $56.0 million in 2023, $64.0 million in 2024, and $61.0 million in 2025.
The expected capital expenditures for 2026 are approximately $64.95 million.
Capital expenditures are primarily focused on investing in technology custom-built for online grocery to drive growth and operational efficiencies for its retail partners and to support its marketplace, advertising, and enterprise operations.

Interactive Breakdown

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Better Bets vs. Maplebear (CART)

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Latest Trefis Analyses

	Title	Date
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Maplebear Stock Rockets 15% With 6-Day Winning Streak	04/08/2026
2	Maplebear Stock Surges 15%, With A 5-Day Winning Spree	04/07/2026
3	Maplebear Stock Pre-Market (+15%) : Q4 Earnings Beat Lifts Shares	02/13/2026
4	With Maplebear Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside?	10/17/2025
5	How Does Maplebear Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?	08/13/2025
6	Why Maplebear Stock Moved: CART Stock Has Gained 92% Since 2023 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S)	08/08/2025
7	Maplebear (CART) Valuation Ratios Comparison	05/15/2025
8	Maplebear (CART) Operating Cash Flow Comparison	02/17/2025
9	Maplebear (CART) Net Income Comparison	02/15/2025
10	Maplebear (CART) Operating Income Comparison	02/14/2025
11	ARTICLES
12	Maplebear Stock Surges 15%, With A 6-Day Winning Spree	04/08/2026
13	Maplebear Stock Rockets 15% With 5-Day Winning Streak	04/07/2026
14	Maplebear Stock Pre-Market (+15%) : Strong Revenue Growth Overshadows Big EPS Miss	02/13/2026

	Title
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Maplebear Stock Rockets 15% With 6-Day Winning Streak
2	Maplebear Stock Surges 15%, With A 5-Day Winning Spree
3	Maplebear Stock Pre-Market (+15%) : Q4 Earnings Beat Lifts Shares
4	With Maplebear Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside?
5	How Does Maplebear Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?
6	Why Maplebear Stock Moved: CART Stock Has Gained 92% Since 2023 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S)
7	Maplebear (CART) Valuation Ratios Comparison
8	Maplebear (CART) Operating Cash Flow Comparison
9	Maplebear (CART) Net Income Comparison
10	Maplebear (CART) Operating Income Comparison
11	ARTICLES
12	Maplebear Stock Surges 15%, With A 6-Day Winning Spree
13	Maplebear Stock Rockets 15% With 5-Day Winning Streak
14	Maplebear Stock Pre-Market (+15%) : Strong Revenue Growth Overshadows Big EPS Miss

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to CART.

Unique Key	Date	Ticker	Company	Category	Trade Strategy	6M Fwd Rtn	12M Fwd Rtn	12M Max DD
ELF_4102026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	04102026	ELF	e.l.f. Beauty	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	-1.8%	-1.8%	-6.2%
IPAR_4022026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy	04022026	IPAR	Interparfums	Dip Buy	DB \| P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin	0.7%	0.7%	-0.3%
COKE_4022026_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%	04022026	COKE	Coca-Cola Consolidated	Quality	Q \| Momentum \| UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run	5.5%	5.5%	-5.2%
MZTI_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	03272026	MZTI	Marzetti	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	-5.0%	-5.0%	-8.6%
TAP_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	03272026	TAP	Molson Coors Beverage	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	-1.5%	-1.5%	-2.3%
CART_3312024_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K	03312024	CART	Maplebear	Insider	Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days	7.0%	7.0%	-19.2%
CART_9302023_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K	09302023	CART	Maplebear	Insider	Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days	25.6%	34.4%	-24.5%

Recent Active Movers

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
FLNC	Fluence Energy	2.5	39.9%	-4.1%
XMTR	Xometry	4.0	39.2%	32.0%
AAON	AAON	10.6	31.5%	69.7%
DDOG	Datadog	66.3	31.3%	38.8%
BOBS	Bobs Discount Furniture	1.7	28.6%	-25.6%
SITM	SiTime	20.9	27.9%	125.7%
ACVA	ACV Auctions	1.1	24.5%	-19.0%
HRB	H&R Block	4.6	23.8%	-15.6%
WRBY	Warby Parker	3.4	23.5%	24.8%
FA	First Advantage	2.7	23.1%	8.5%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
CVNA	Carvana	11.3	-79.5%	-81.0%
TRDA	Entrada Therapeutics	0.3	-57.3%	-33.4%
FSLY	Fastly	2.9	-38.2%	91.6%
PLNT	Planet Fitness	3.6	-31.2%	-59.4%
BETR	Better Home & Finance	0.5	-28.5%	-6.3%
SHAK	Shake Shack	2.8	-28.3%	-14.7%
IBP	Installed Building Products	5.8	-27.6%	-15.7%
PAHC	Phibro Animal Health	1.7	-26.2%	15.8%
GPGI	GPGI	1.6	-25.9%	-32.9%
AOSL	Alpha & Omega Semiconductor	1.1	-24.1%	89.0%

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
GBTG	Global Business Travel	4.9	61.1%	23.4%
STRL	Sterling Infrastructure	24.9	57.4%	165.0%
DOCN	DigitalOcean	13.8	56.0%	212.6%
FLNC	Fluence Energy	2.5	55.7%	-4.1%
XMTR	Xometry	4.0	53.1%	32.0%
WOLF	Wolfspeed	1.2	52.9%	159.4%
ULCC	Frontier	1.2	49.6%	15.3%
FLEX	Flex	49.1	45.3%	120.1%
EVER	EverQuote	0.7	42.9%	-23.7%
DDOG	Datadog	66.3	42.8%	38.8%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
CVNA	Carvana	11.3	-79.8%	-81.0%
EMBC	Embecta	0.2	-60.7%	-69.3%
TRDA	Entrada Therapeutics	0.3	-49.3%	-33.4%
ULH	Universal Logistics	0.4	-44.3%	-11.1%
BRBR	BellRing Brands	1.2	-41.2%	-60.9%
PRIM	Primoris Services	5.8	-40.4%	-13.0%
WGS	GeneDx	1.2	-35.6%	-68.9%
PLNT	Planet Fitness	3.6	-34.0%	-59.4%
CABO	Cable One	0.3	-33.6%	-46.1%
SHAK	Shake Shack	2.8	-32.4%	-14.7%

Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
MXL	MaxLinear	7.2	330.4%	372.6%
BAND	Bandwidth	1.5	169.0%	214.4%
OGN	Organon	3.5	127.3%	86.2%
WOLF	Wolfspeed	1.2	119.6%	159.4%
SHAZ	SharonAI	0.6	106.5%	-41.9%
AXTI	AXT	4.8	103.9%	563.1%
SITM	SiTime	20.9	101.9%	125.7%
HPP	Hudson Pacific Properties	0.8	95.8%	8.7%
ABSI	Absci	0.9	92.3%	64.8%
STRL	Sterling Infrastructure	24.9	91.7%	165.0%

Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
CVNA	Carvana	11.3	-76.4%	-81.0%
EMBC	Embecta	0.2	-59.5%	-69.3%
TRDA	Entrada Therapeutics	0.3	-52.2%	-33.4%
ULH	Universal Logistics	0.4	-41.5%	-11.1%
CAR	Avis Budget	5.4	-41.1%	20.1%
PLNT	Planet Fitness	3.6	-40.5%	-59.4%
FSLY	Fastly	2.9	-40.5%	91.6%
ERAS	Erasca	3.0	-38.6%	179.6%
WGS	GeneDx	1.2	-38.3%	-68.9%
VISN	Vistance Networks	2.6	-36.1%	-35.5%

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

	CART	KR	CASY	ACI	SFM	Median
Name	Maplebear	Kroger	Casey's .	Albertso.	Sprouts .
Mkt Price	37.99	66.41	850.95	16.18	81.01	66.41
Mkt Cap	9.7	41.9	31.5	8.3	7.7	9.7
Rev LTM	3,742	147,642	16,982	83,172	8,899	16,982
Op Inc LTM	499	1,890	954	715	680	715
FCF LTM	910	3,456	667	527	362	667
FCF 3Y Avg	688	2,706	513	635	375	635
CFO LTM	971	7,311	1,313	2,367	652	1,313
CFO 3Y Avg	748	6,631	1,069	2,569	627	1,069

Growth & Margins

	CART	KR	CASY	ACI	SFM	Median
Name	Maplebear	Kroger	Casey's .	Albertso.	Sprouts .
Rev Chg LTM	10.8%	0.4%	9.2%	3.5%	10.2%	9.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-	-0.1%	3.9%	2.3%	11.1%	3.1%
Rev Chg Q	12.3%	1.2%	0.3%	7.7%	4.1%	4.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM	3.0%	0.3%	0.1%	1.8%	1.1%	1.1%
Op Inc Chg LTM	2.0%	-50.9%	24.3%	-56.4%	14.3%	2.0%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg	-	-17.2%	14.4%	-27.0%	22.5%	-1.4%
Op Mgn LTM	13.3%	1.3%	5.6%	0.9%	7.6%	5.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg	-14.2%	2.0%	5.0%	1.9%	7.0%	2.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM	-2.0%	0.2%	0.3%	-1.0%	-0.2%	-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM	25.9%	5.0%	7.7%	2.8%	7.3%	7.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg	21.8%	4.5%	6.8%	3.2%	7.8%	6.8%
FCF/Rev LTM	24.3%	2.3%	3.9%	0.6%	4.1%	3.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg	20.1%	1.8%	3.2%	0.8%	4.7%	3.2%

Valuation

	CART	KR	CASY	ACI	SFM	Median
Name	Maplebear	Kroger	Casey's .	Albertso.	Sprouts .
Mkt Cap	9.7	41.9	31.5	8.3	7.7	9.7
P/S	2.6	0.3	1.9	0.1	0.9	0.9
P/Op Inc	19.4	22.2	33.0	11.6	11.3	19.4
P/EBIT	19.4	22.8	33.0	10.9	11.3	19.4
P/E	21.7	41.2	48.5	38.0	15.1	38.0
P/CFO	10.0	5.7	24.0	3.5	11.8	10.0
Total Yield	4.6%	4.5%	2.3%	6.5%	6.6%	4.6%
Dividend Yield	0.0%	2.1%	0.3%	3.9%	0.0%	0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg	7.3%	6.1%	3.4%	5.7%	4.1%	5.7%
D/E	0.0	0.6	0.1	1.9	0.3	0.3
Net D/E	-0.1	0.5	0.1	1.8	0.2	0.2

Returns

	CART	KR	CASY	ACI	SFM	Median
Name	Maplebear	Kroger	Casey's .	Albertso.	Sprouts .
1M Rtn	-7.6%	-8.6%	14.8%	-9.4%	5.0%	-7.6%
3M Rtn	10.6%	0.1%	30.4%	-8.1%	22.1%	10.6%
6M Rtn	8.6%	5.8%	62.9%	-5.7%	4.1%	5.8%
12M Rtn	-16.9%	-6.4%	83.3%	-25.3%	-51.7%	-16.9%
3Y Rtn	12.7%	44.4%	275.3%	-15.0%	125.8%	44.4%
1M Excs Rtn	-12.2%	-14.6%	4.1%	-15.9%	-1.2%	-12.2%
3M Excs Rtn	2.7%	-7.8%	22.5%	-16.0%	14.2%	2.7%
6M Excs Rtn	-4.2%	-3.1%	54.6%	-13.1%	-11.6%	-4.2%
12M Excs Rtn	-47.6%	-38.0%	52.0%	-54.5%	-83.1%	-47.6%
3Y Excs Rtn	-65.4%	-34.6%	188.0%	-94.4%	35.9%	-34.6%

Comparison Analyses

	Title
0	How Does Maplebear Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?

FDIC Bank Data

Bank Capital

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Bank Deposits

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Bank Assets

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Bank Loans

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FDA Approved Drugs Data

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Financials

Annual
Quarterly

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	LTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Period End	12/31/2025	12/31/2025	12/31/2024	12/31/2023	12/31/2022	12/31/2021	12/31/2020
Filing Date	2/26/2026	2/26/2026	2/28/2025	3/5/2024	9/20/2023	3/5/2024	9/20/2023
Key Financials
Total Revenue	3,742	3,742	3,378	3,042	2,551	1,834	1,477
EBITDA	598	597	556	-2,085	109	-59	-55
Operating Income	499	498	489	-2,142	62	-86	-75
Net Income	447	447	457	-1,622	428	-73	-70
EPS	1.68	1.68	1.69	-12.43	0.28	-0.26	-0.25
Growth Rates
Total Revenue Growth	10.8%	10.8%	11.0%	19.2%	39.1%	24.2%	-
EBITDA Growth	7.6%	7.4%	126.7%	-2012.8%	284.7%	-7.3%	-
Operating Income Growth	2.0%	1.8%	122.8%	-3554.8%	172.1%	-14.7%	-
Net Income Growth	-2.2%	-2.2%	128.2%	-479.0%	686.3%	-4.3%	-
Margins
EBITDA Margin	16.0%	16.0%	16.5%	-68.5%	4.3%	-3.2%	-3.7%
Operating Income Margin	13.3%	13.3%	14.5%	-70.4%	2.4%	-4.7%	-5.1%
Net Income Margin	11.9%	11.9%	13.5%	-53.3%	16.8%	-4.0%	-4.7%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	687	687	1,369	2,186	1,714	1,494	�
Total Debt	36	36	26	40	49	54	0
Net Debt / (Cash)	-651	-651	-1,343	-2,146	-1,665	-1,440	�
Cash Flows
Net Cash from Operations	971	971	687	586	277	-204	-91
Free Cash from Operations	910	910	623	532	253	-226	-98
Returns to Shareholders
Dividends	0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0	-0
Share Repurchases	1,386	1,386	1,402	36	-0	-0	-0

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	2025Q4	2025Q3	2025Q2	2025Q1	2024Q4	2024Q3	2024Q2	2024Q1	2023Q4	2023Q3	2023Q2	2023Q1
Period End	12/31/2025	9/30/2025	6/30/2025	3/31/2025	12/31/2024	9/30/2024	6/30/2024	3/31/2024	12/31/2023	9/30/2023	6/30/2023	3/31/2023
Filing Date	2/26/2026	11/10/2025	8/8/2025	5/8/2025	2/28/2025	11/13/2024	8/9/2024	5/10/2024	3/5/2024	11/13/2023	9/20/2023	5/10/2024
Key Financials Quarterly
Total Revenue	992	939	914	897	883	852	823	820	803	764	716	759
Ebitda	124	196	146	132	174	156	67	159	59	-2,442	134	164
Operating Income	98	168	123	110	155	138	52	144	46	-2,457	119	150
Net Income	81	144	116	106	148	118	61	130	135	-1,999	114	128
EPS	0.31	0.54	0.43	0.40	0.56	0.45	0.22	0.47	0.48	-20.86	0.00	0.00
Key Financials TTM
Total Revenue TTM	3,742	3,633	3,546	3,455	3,378	3,298	3,210	3,103	3,042	2,996	2,900	-
Ebitda TTM	598	648	608	529	556	441	-2,157	-2,090	-2,085	-2,028	459	-
Operating Income TTM	499	556	526	455	489	380	-2,215	-2,148	-2,142	-2,086	404	-
Net Income TTM	447	514	488	433	457	444	-1,673	-1,620	-1,622	-1,291	744	-
Growth Rates Quarterly
Total Revenue Growth	12.3%	10.2%	11.1%	9.4%	10.0%	11.5%	14.9%	8.0%	6.1%	14.4%	-	-
EBITDA Growth	-28.7%	25.6%	117.9%	-17.0%	194.9%	106.4%	-50.0%	-3.0%	-49.1%	-5526.7%	-	-
Operating Income Growth	-36.8%	21.7%	136.5%	-23.6%	237.0%	105.6%	-56.3%	-4.0%	-54.9%	-7545.5%	-	-
Net Income Growth	-45.3%	22.0%	90.2%	-18.5%	9.6%	105.9%	-46.5%	1.6%	-71.0%	-5652.8%	-	-
Margins Quarterly
EBITDA Margin	12.5%	20.9%	16.0%	14.7%	19.7%	18.3%	8.1%	19.4%	7.3%	-319.6%	18.7%	21.6%
Operating Income Margin	9.9%	17.9%	13.5%	12.3%	17.6%	16.2%	6.3%	17.6%	5.7%	-321.6%	16.6%	19.8%
Net Income Margin	8.2%	15.3%	12.7%	11.8%	16.8%	13.8%	7.4%	15.9%	16.8%	-261.6%	15.9%	16.9%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	687	1,729	1,598	1,630	1,369	1,308	1,443	1,534	2,186	2,066	1,963	-
Total Debt	36	37	37	22	26	28	32	36	40	43	43	0
Net Debt / (Cash)	-651	-1,692	-1,561	-1,608	-1,343	-1,280	-1,411	-1,498	-2,146	-2,023	-1,920	-
Cash Flows Quarterly
FCF from Operations	183	287	203	298	153	185	244	105	233	111	172	70
Cash Flows TTM
FCF from Operations TTM	971	941	839	880	687	767	693	621	586	402	420	-
Returns to Shareholders Quarterly
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Share Repurchases	1,114	62	121	89	5	357	325	715	36	-0	-0	-0
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Quarterly
ROIC	4.6%	10.2%	7.6%	7.3%	10.4%	8.0%	3.7%	9.3%	4.3%	-192.0%	-	-
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) TTM
ROIC TTM	6.3%	8.9%	8.3%	7.5%	7.6%	6.9%	-34.0%	-34.7%	-39.8%	-31.7%	-	-

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Single segment	3,378	3,042
Advertising and other			740	572	295
Transaction			1,811	1,262	1,182
Total	3,378	3,042	2,551	1,834	1,477

Price Behavior

Price Behavior

Market Price	$37.99
Market Cap ($ Bil)	9.7
First Trading Date	09/19/2023
Distance from 52W High	-26.6%
	50 Days	200 Days
DMA Price	$39.46	$41.17
DMA Trend	down	up
Distance from DMA	-3.7%	-7.7%
	3M	1YR
Volatility	46.6%	41.2%
Downside Capture	0.73	0.38
Upside Capture	145.32	29.16
Correlation (SPY)	9.4%	7.1%

CART Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026

	1M	2M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y
Beta	-0.20	0.11	0.37	0.43	0.35	-0.18
Up Beta	-1.24	-0.84	-1.13	-0.72	0.15	-0.66
Down Beta	5.56	-1.01	-0.90	0.03	0.50	-0.51
Up Capture	118%	112%	159%	114%	27%	37%
Bmk +ve Days	15	22	31	66	141	428
Stock +ve Days	14	25	37	74	139	345
Down Capture	98%	47%	108%	91%	47%	90%
Bmk -ve Days	4	18	30	56	108	321
Stock -ve Days	8	18	27	51	112	308

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively

Based On 1-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with CART
CART	-21.5%	41.0%	-0.49	-
Sector ETF (XLP)	6.1%	12.6%	0.20	1.7%
Equity (SPY)	29.6%	12.5%	1.86	8.4%
Gold (GLD)	37.0%	27.1%	1.14	-2.5%
Commodities (DBC)	48.7%	18.0%	2.12	1.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)	12.9%	13.5%	0.65	4.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	-16.3%	42.1%	-0.31	9.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Based On 5-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with CART
CART	1.2%	45.6%	0.19	-
Sector ETF (XLP)	6.6%	13.2%	0.28	16.0%
Equity (SPY)	12.8%	17.1%	0.59	27.7%
Gold (GLD)	21.1%	17.9%	0.96	4.8%
Commodities (DBC)	14.1%	19.1%	0.60	11.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)	3.3%	18.8%	0.08	19.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	7.0%	56.0%	0.34	13.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Based On 10-Year Data

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with CART
CART	0.6%	45.6%	0.19	-
Sector ETF (XLP)	7.7%	14.7%	0.39	16.0%
Equity (SPY)	15.0%	17.9%	0.72	27.7%
Gold (GLD)	13.5%	16.0%	0.70	4.8%
Commodities (DBC)	9.4%	17.8%	0.44	11.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)	5.7%	20.7%	0.24	19.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	68.2%	66.9%	1.07	13.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date	4152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity	15.6 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 3312026	3.9%
Average Daily Volume	3.7 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest	4.2 days
Basic Shares Quantity	255.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares	6.1%

Returns Analyses

	Title
0	With Maplebear Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside?

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

	Forward Returns
Earnings Date	1D Returns	5D Returns	21D Returns
5/6/2026	-8.2%
2/12/2026	9.2%	9.1%	16.6%
11/10/2025	1.6%	11.7%	18.3%
8/7/2025	3.7%	-11.2%	-8.5%
2/25/2025	-12.3%	-21.2%	-17.3%
11/12/2024	-11.0%	-11.5%	-13.3%
8/6/2024	2.8%	2.3%	10.1%
5/8/2024	-3.7%	-12.4%	-12.0%
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	4	3	3
# Negative	4	4	4
Median Positive	3.2%	9.1%	16.6%
Median Negative	-9.6%	-11.9%	-12.7%
Max Positive	9.2%	11.7%	18.3%
Max Negative	-12.3%	-21.2%	-17.3%

	Forward Returns
5/6/2026	-8.2%
2/12/2026	9.2%	9.1%	16.6%
11/10/2025	1.6%	11.7%	18.3%
8/7/2025	3.7%	-11.2%	-8.5%
2/25/2025	-12.3%	-21.2%	-17.3%
11/12/2024	-11.0%	-11.5%	-13.3%
8/6/2024	2.8%	2.3%	10.1%
5/8/2024	-3.7%	-12.4%	-12.0%
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	4	3	3
# Negative	4	4	4
Median Positive	3.2%	9.1%	16.6%
Median Negative	-9.6%	-11.9%	-12.7%
Max Positive	9.2%	11.7%	18.3%
Max Negative	-12.3%	-21.2%	-17.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report Date	Filing Date	Filing
12/31/2025	02/26/2026	10-K
09/30/2025	11/10/2025	10-Q
06/30/2025	08/08/2025	10-Q
03/31/2025	05/08/2025	10-Q
12/31/2024	02/28/2025	10-K
09/30/2024	11/13/2024	10-Q
06/30/2024	08/09/2024	10-Q
03/31/2024	05/10/2024	10-Q
12/31/2023	03/05/2024	10-K
09/30/2023	11/13/2023	10-Q
06/30/2023	09/20/2023	424B4

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026

Forward Guidance				Guidance Change
Metric	Low	Mid	High	% Chg	% Delta	Change	Prior
Q2 2026 GTV	10.10 Bil	10.18 Bil	10.25 Bil	-0.2%		Lowered	Guidance: 10.20 Bil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA	290.00 Mil	295.00 Mil	300.00 Mil	3.5%		Raised	Guidance: 285.00 Mil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 GTV Growth	11.0%	12.0%	13.0%
Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth	11.0%	13.0%	15.0%

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026

Forward Guidance				Guidance Change
Metric	Low	Mid	High	% Chg	% Delta	Change	Prior
Q1 2026 GTV	10.12 Bil	10.20 Bil	10.28 Bil	7.1%		Higher New	Guidance: 9.53 Bil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA	280.00 Mil	285.00 Mil	290.00 Mil	-1.7%		Lower New	Guidance: 290.00 Mil for Q4 2025

Insider Activity

Expand for More

#	Owner	Title	Holding	Action	Filing Date	Price	Shares	Transacted Value	Value of Held Shares	Form
1	Blackwood-Kapral, Lisa	Chief Accounting Officer	Direct	Sell	4172026	40.25	9,390	377,904	2,373,311	Form
2	Blackwood-Kapral, Lisa	Chief Accounting Officer	Direct	Sell	3182026	38.74	9,390	363,797	1,840,680	Form
3	Fong, Morgan	GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	Direct	Sell	3132026	37.09	126,083	4,676,954	14,342,230	Form
4	Sarafan, Lily		Direct	Sell	2272026	36.53	3,500	127,847	787,320	Form
5	Fong, Morgan	GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	Direct	Sell	12232025	45.21	4,914	222,168	18,307,813	Form

Collapse to Preview

#	Owner	Title	Holding	Action	Filing Date	Price	Shares	Transacted Value	Value of Held Shares	Form
1	Blackwood-Kapral, Lisa	Chief Accounting Officer	Direct	Sell	4172026	40.25	9,390	377,904	2,373,311	Form
2	Blackwood-Kapral, Lisa	Chief Accounting Officer	Direct	Sell	3182026	38.74	9,390	363,797	1,840,680	Form
3	Fong, Morgan	GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	Direct	Sell	3132026	37.09	126,083	4,676,954	14,342,230	Form
4	Sarafan, Lily		Direct	Sell	2272026	36.53	3,500	127,847	787,320	Form
5	Fong, Morgan	GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	Direct	Sell	12232025	45.21	4,914	222,168	18,307,813	Form
6	Laughton, Mary Beth		Direct	Sell	11252025	40.72	4,056	165,168	614,003	Form
7	Fong, Morgan	GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	Direct	Sell	11212025	41.25	4,914	202,702	16,906,478	Form
8	Simo, Fidji		Direct	Sell	11142025	39.91	4,065	162,254	22,578,884	Form
9	Fong, Morgan	GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	Direct	Sell	10222025	38.85	3,546	137,762	16,609,269	Form
10	Simo, Fidji		Direct	Sell	10172025	40.00	1,014	40,560	22,789,680	Form
11	Simo, Fidji		Direct	Sell	10172025	39.60	3,051	120,812	22,600,511	Form
12	Fong, Morgan	GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	Direct	Sell	9242025	42.39	3,546	150,315	18,273,015	Form
13	Rogers, Chris	President and CEO	Direct	Sell	9242025	42.37	9,259	392,283	31,347,088	Form
14	Simo, Fidji		Direct	Sell	9172025	47.30	7,140	337,744	27,142,821	Form
15	Rogers, Chris	President and CEO	Direct	Sell	8222025	45.77	8,987	411,365	19,422,693	Form
16	Fong, Morgan	GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	Direct	Sell	8192025	45.65	3,544	161,784	19,840,175	Form
17	Simo, Fidji	PRESIDENT AND CEO	Direct	Sell	8122025	51.47	7,140	367,461	97,878,746	Form
18	Simo, Fidji	PRESIDENT AND CEO	Direct	Sell	8122025	51.66	49,818	2,573,767	98,624,760	Form
19	Gcm, Grosvenor Inc		GCM Grosvenor IC SPV, LLC	Sell	7292025	47.75	4,238,887	202,406,854	174,459,686	Form
20	Gcm, Grosvenor Inc		GCM Grosvenor IC SPV 2, LLC	Sell	7292025	47.75	565,385	26,997,134	23,269,434	Form
21	Gcm, Grosvenor Inc		GCM Special Opportunities Master Fund, Ltd.	Sell	7292025	47.75	60,000			Form
22	Gcm, Grosvenor LP		GCM Grosvenor IC SPV, LLC	Sell	7292025	47.75	4,238,887	202,406,854	174,459,686	Form
23	Gcm, Grosvenor LP		GCM Grosvenor IC SPV 2, LLC	Sell	7292025	47.75	565,385	26,997,134	23,269,434	Form
24	Gcm, Grosvenor LP		GCM Special Opportunities Master Fund, Ltd.	Sell	7292025	47.75	60,000			Form
25	Simo, Fidji	PRESIDENT AND CEO	Direct	Sell	7242025	50.00	6,640	332,028	97,948,477	Form
26	Simo, Fidji	PRESIDENT AND CEO	Direct	Sell	7242025	50.01	66,560	3,328,519	98,287,580	Form
27	Fong, Morgan	GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	Direct	Sell	7222025	49.16	4,680	230,069	22,220,320	Form
28	Danker, Daniel	Chief Product Officer	Direct	Sell	7222025	48.82	10,037	489,993	22,954,046	Form
29	Simo, Fidji	PRESIDENT AND CEO	Direct	Sell	7152025	47.86	14,233	681,147	97,245,460	Form
30	Simo, Fidji	PRESIDENT AND CEO	Direct	Sell	7022025	45.21	3,050	137,890	92,510,420	Form
31	Fong, Morgan	GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	Direct	Sell	6242025	43.90	4,680	205,436	20,046,699	Form
32	Danker, Daniel	Chief Product Officer	Direct	Sell	6202025	43.44	10,035	435,936	20,861,829	Form
33	Simo, Fidji	PRESIDENT AND CEO	Direct	Sell	6182025	43.16	11,183	482,608	88,438,048	Form
34	Kopit, Levien Meredith A		Direct	Sell	6092025	47.45	4,225	200,477	988,338	Form
35	Danker, Daniel	Chief Product Officer	Direct	Sell	6032025	45.55	10,035	457,077	22,330,601	Form
36	Fong, Morgan	GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	Direct	Sell	5212025	45.00	4,677	210,465	20,761,200	Form
37	Simo, Fidji	PRESIDENT AND CEO	Direct	Sell	5162025	44.50	26,433	1,176,206	94,702,216	Form
38	Fong, Morgan	GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY	Direct	Sell	4232025	42.57	5,249	223,450	20,616,310	Form
39	Simo, Fidji	PRESIDENT AND CEO	Direct	Sell	4162025	41.60	8,133	338,304	68,485,559	Form

CART Trade Sentinel

Stock Conviction

ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

The probability-adjusted skew of 1.99x is attractive and falls into the 'Buyable' tier. The investment case hinges on the strong secular tailwind of the online grocery market (Regime B). While the competitive moat is only 'Contested', the powerful market growth provides a margin of safety, and the potential for a margin-accretive business model shift towards advertising and enterprise tech justifies the risk. The valuation is fair, providing a reasonable entry point for a high-beta compounder.

STOCK ARCHETYPE

High-Beta Compounder

Maplebear operates in the online grocery delivery market, which is projected to grow at a double-digit CAGR. However, it faces 'EXISTENTIAL' and 'STRUCTURAL' competitive threats from Walmart and DoorDash, respectively. This combination of a high-growth secular trend and intense, high-stakes competition makes it a 'High-Beta Compounder', where the outcome is highly sensitive to execution and competitive dynamics.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.

INVESTMENT THESIS

Enterprise & Advertising Platform Transition to Higher Margin Revenue Streams

The primary long thesis for Maplebear is its strategic pivot from a low-margin marketplace intermediary to a high-margin technology and advertising platform. By expanding its B2B enterprise e-commerce solutions and growing its cost-per-click advertising business, Maplebear can significantly increase its take rate and expand operating margins, leveraging its established grocery network.

Mechanism: Maplebear captures value by selling high-margin digital advertising space to CPG brands seeking to influence consumers at the point of sale, and by licensing its e-commerce and fulfillment technology to retailers, creating stickier, recurring revenue streams independent of individual transaction volumes.

Supporting Evidence:

Management anticipates double-digit advertising revenue growth in 2026.
The company is expanding its enterprise platform, which provides e-commerce solutions to over 350 retailers.
There is a potential for approximately 510 basis points of operating margin expansion to reach the level of a mature marketplace peer like eBay (20.4% GAAP operating margin).

PRIMARY RISK

Market Share Erosion in Core Grocery Delivery due to Structural Cost Disadvantages

The primary friction is the structural inability to compete on price with first-party retail models, particularly Walmart. Walmart's use of its massive physical store footprint as fulfillment centers provides a structural cost advantage that Maplebear, as a third-party intermediary requiring payment for a shopper's time, cannot replicate. This is causing share loss in the 'Cost-Conscious Consumer' segment.

Mechanism: As large retailers like Walmart and Amazon enhance their own first-party delivery services (e.g., Walmart+), they offer lower all-in costs (item price + fees), pulling price-sensitive customers away from Maplebear's marketplace. This directly pressures Gross Transaction Value (GTV) growth and limits pricing power.

Supporting Evidence:

Maplebear's GTV grew 10% YoY in Q3 2025, significantly lower than the 25% YoY growth reported by competitor DoorDash in the same period.
Maplebear's business model is described as having a 'structurally higher cost per order' than a retailer using its own staff, creating a unit cost disadvantage.
The competitive threat from Walmart is rated as 'EXISTENTIAL', with the current win/loss status categorized as 'LOSING'.

Key KPI Watchlist

KPI	Threshold	Rationale
Gross Transaction Value (GTV) YoY Growth	>10%	Must keep pace with or exceed the underlying US online grocery market growth rate. A sustained dip below 10%, especially while competitors like DoorDash grow faster, would confirm the bear thesis of market share loss.
Advertising & Other Revenue YoY Growth	Consistently >15%	This is the core of the bull thesis. This high-margin segment must significantly outpace overall GTV growth to drive the margin expansion story and justify a premium multiple.
Retailer First-Party Growth Rates (e.g., Walmart, Kroger)	Monitor for acceleration	The growth rates of major grocers' own digital channels are a direct leading indicator of the primary competitive threat. If their growth continues to significantly outpace Maplebear's, it validates the structural risk.

Core Investment Debate

Growth Engine vs. Competitive Siege

BULL VIEW

Bulls bet the large, underpenetrated grocery TAM and growing, high-margin ad revenue will drive significant margin expansion and durable compounding, offsetting marketplace pressures.

CORE TENSION

Can Maplebear's high-margin ad business and tech platform initiatives outpace market share loss to structurally advantaged, vertically-integrated retailers like Walmart and faster-growing peers like DoorDash?

PREVAILING SENTIMENT

BEARISH

Q3 2025 GTV grew 10% YoY, slower than DoorDash's 25%. Q4 2025 ad revenue guidance (6-9%) shows deceleration in its most profitable segment.

BEAR VIEW

Bears see decelerating GTV growth, fragile network moat, regulatory headwinds as structural weakness, fearing erosion of the core business before new ventures.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts

Timeline	Event & Metric To Watch
Feb 12, 2026	Q4 2025 Earnings & Guidance Watch: Q1 2026 guidance for GTV and Advertising Revenue growth. A return to double-digit ad growth is critical.
Q1 2026	Competitor Grocery Partnership Watch: Announcements by DoorDash or Uber of a major new partnership with a national grocer currently exclusive to Instacart.
Monthly	Consumer Credit Data Release Watch: Federal Reserve monthly reports on consumer credit, specifically 90+ day delinquency rates.
Anytime	Worker Reclassification Lawsuit Watch: A major lawsuit filed by a state Attorney General or the Department of Labor challenging shopper classification.

Key Events in Last 6 Months

Date	Event	Stock Impact
2025-08-07	Q2 2025 Earnings Details: Maplebear reported Q2 earnings, beating both revenue and EPS estimates. The positive results led to a significant +3.7% stock rise the following day.	+3.68% $49.39 -> $51.21
2025-10-20	Insider Stock Sale Details: CEO Fidji Simo sold over $160,000 in stock. The market reaction was muted (-0.4%) to this executive share sale.	-0.36% $38.95 -> $38.81
2025-11-10	Q3 2025 Earnings & Share Buyback Increase Details: Company reported Q3 results, beating EPS estimates. Concurrently announced an increase in its share repurchase authorization to $2.5 billion. Stock rose significantly by +5.0%.	+4.98% $37.33 -> $39.20
2025-12-10	Insider Stock Sale Details: General Counsel Morgan Fong sold over $222,000 in stock. The significant sale by a key insider prompted a -6.0% crash in the stock price, signaling low internal confidence.	-5.96% $46.24 -> $43.48
2025-12-18	FTC Fine & Investigation Details: The FTC imposed a $60M penalty on Maplebear for deceptive subscription practices. Stock had a slight -1.5% pullback as the fine addressed past conduct.	-1.53% $45.65 -> $44.95
2026-01-27	Competitive Pressure Details: Stock plummeted -5.9% following news reports that Amazon plans a significant expansion of its own same-day fresh grocery delivery service in 2026, a direct threat to CART's market.	-5.92% $40.35 -> $37.96

Risk Management

Position Sizing

1% - 3%

CONSERVATIVE

Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.6x S&P). The Bearish sentiment, driven by an eroding competitive moat and only medium visibility, dictates a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.

Diversification Alternatives

MELI

SECTOR

Unlike CART, MELI has a dominant, defensible market leadership in Latin America and a synergistic, high-growth fintech arm (Mercado Pago) which widens its moat.

Core Thesis: The core thesis is a powerful, integrated e-commerce and fintech ecosystem with strong network effects, providing a durable competitive advantage in a high-growth emerging market.

UBER

SECTOR

Uber possesses greater business diversification (Mobility and Delivery) at a global scale, providing more resilience than CART's grocery-focused model.

Core Thesis: A global logistics powerhouse with two scaled, leading platforms creating strong cross-platform network effects, now pivoting to structural profitability and free cash flow generation.

How Is The Market Pricing CART?

Instacart is re-rating from a low-margin grocery delivery service into a capital-light, high-margin retail technology and advertising platform, trading at a forward P/E of ~15.3 despite GTV growth accelerating to 14%.

Filter all news through the lens of the platform's monetization efficiency and its competitive moat against large-scale rivals like Amazon and Walmart.

What will confirm the thesis

Advertising revenue growth outpacing GTV growth; announcements of new enterprise technology partnerships with major grocers (e.g., Caper Carts, Storefront Pro); market share gains from third-party sources vs. competitors; sustained double-digit GTV growth.

What will damage the thesis

Sustained lag in advertising revenue growth relative to GTV growth; loss of a major retail partner (e.g., Costco, Kroger) to a competitor or an in-house solution; announcements of major grocery-delivery offensives by Amazon, Walmart, or DoorDash.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Quarterly fluctuations in average order value (AOV) \u2014 expected due to mix-shift from restaurant orders; minor changes in shopper incentive structures \u2014 standard operational adjustments; partnerships with smaller, regional grocers \u2014 table stakes for growth.

Repricing Catalyst

The market is re-evaluating Instacart as a technology provider, not just a delivery service. This is driven by the high-margin 'Advertising and Other' segment ($294M in Q4'25), the rollout of its Enterprise Platform (powering 380+ grocer e-commerce sites), and its AI-driven operational leverage, which is expanding EBITDA margins faster than GTV growth (Q1'26 Adj. EBITDA guidance: +15-19% YoY).

What CART Makes & Who Pays

TTM figures based on Q4 2025 Shareholder Letter, Feb 12, 2026

Marketplace Transaction Fees

$2.8B TTM (70.4% of Total) · % Margin

What It Is

Fees from consumers (delivery, service, subscription) and retail partners for orders placed through the Instacart app and website.

Who Pays & How

Millions of consumers pay for the convenience of on-demand grocery delivery. Retail partners like Costco, Kroger, and Albertsons pay to access Instacart's large user base and fulfillment network without large upfront capital investment.

Per-order fees from consumers and retailers, plus recurring revenue from Instacart+ subscriptions.

Competition

Walmart - In-house grocery pickup & delivery service

Walmart leverages its massive physical store footprint (90% of Americans live within 10 miles) and low prices to capture the largest share (~26-31%) of the U.S. online grocery market. [DATED: Oct 2025]

Instacart's asset-light model and partnerships with over 1,400 non-Walmart retailers (like Costco, Kroger, Publix) provide a vastly wider selection for consumers, creating a strong network effect.

Advertising & Enterprise Technology

$1.2B TTM (29.6% of Total) · % Margin

What It Is

Advertising services ('Carrot Ads') for CPG brands; Enterprise solutions including white-label e-commerce storefronts ('Storefront Pro') and smart shopping carts ('Caper Carts').

Who Pays & How

Over 9,000 CPG brands (e.g., PepsiCo) pay to promote their products to consumers at the digital point of sale. Grocers pay for the technology to power their own e-commerce and digitize their physical stores.

Cost-per-click/impression for advertising; SaaS fees for enterprise technology.

Competition

Amazon - Amazon Marketing Cloud & Retail Media Network

Amazon leverages its massive e-commerce platform, Prime membership, and extensive first-party data to offer highly integrated advertising and delivery services, commanding ~22% of the US online grocery market. [DATED: Oct 2025]

Instacart provides a retail-agnostic platform, allowing CPG brands to advertise across hundreds of different grocers. Its Carrot Ads solution powers the retail media networks for 310+ retailer sites, embedding Instacart's tech deeper into the ecosystem.

CART Evolution: Price Return by Era

2012\u20132019 · Building the Marketplace

Scaling the Two-Sided Network Private Company

Founded in 2012, Instacart's early years focused on solving the core logistics of on-demand grocery delivery. The company raised significant venture capital to expand its footprint across North America, establishing crucial partnerships with major grocers and building its network of independent shoppers. The launch of Instacart Express in 2014 was a key step in building a recurring revenue model.

2020\u20132022 · Pandemic Hypergrowth

From Convenience to Critical Infrastructure Private Company

The COVID-19 pandemic transformed Instacart into an essential service overnight, driving an unprecedented surge in order volume and GTV. This hypergrowth period led to a peak private valuation of $39 billion in March 2021. During this time, the company rapidly scaled its advertising business and began a strategic pivot toward providing enterprise technology solutions to its retail partners.

2023\u2013Present · Public Company & Tech Pivot

The Advertising & Enterprise Engine

Instacart went public via an IPO in September 2023 at a more modest ~$10 billion valuation. The post-IPO era has been defined by a strategic emphasis on the high-margin advertising business and selling enterprise technology to retailers. The company is focused on driving profitability and operating leverage, as evidenced by strong adjusted EBITDA growth and a massive $1.4 billion share repurchase program in 2025.

Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode

Price structure is damaged. The price has broken key levels and the trend is no longer supportive. Relative to SPY: Performance in line with the broader market with no relative edge or drag in current window. Volume and momentum are strongly confirming. The institutional accumulation is evident and momentum is accelerating. Earnings history is a strong counter-signal. The market has consistently rejected the narrative. This is not noise, but institutional disagreement. NOTE: Volume character and price structure are diverging. The structural trend is not confirmed by institutional flow. This divergence typically resolves in the direction of volume, not price.

① Structure

-2

Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.

② Volume / Momentum

Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.

③ Catalyst

-3

Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.

Combined Score

-2 / 12

1 Price Structure & Trend Potential Bottoming · - ▾

2 Momentum Pausing ▾

3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Neutral Relative Strength ▾

4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Accumulation ▾

5 Volatility Normal ▾

6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising ▾

7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent ▾

8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾

Pillar	Score
① Structure	-2
② Vol / Mom	+3
③ Catalyst	-3

ℹ Bull Pillars: 1 · Bear Pillars: 2 · Combined Score: -2 → Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode

External Quote Links

0	Y Finance	Barrons
1	TradingView	Morningstar
2	SeekingAlpha	ValueLine
3	Motley Fool	Robinhood
4	CNBC	Etrade
5	MarketWatch	Unusual Whales
6	YCharts	Perplexity Finance
7	FinViz

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Maplebear (CART)

Market Price (5/8/2026): $38.15 | Market Cap: $9.7 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail

Maplebear (CART)

Market Price (5/8/2026): $38.15Market Cap: $9.7 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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About Maplebear (CART)

Maplebear (Instacart) Major Products and Services:

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Market Price (5/8/2026): $38.15 | Market Cap: $9.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail

Market Price (5/8/2026): $38.15
Market Cap: $9.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Food Retail