Maplebear (CART)
Market Price (2/6/2026): $34.58 | Market Cap: $9.2 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail
Maplebear (CART)
Market Price (2/6/2026): $34.58Market Cap: $9.2 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6%, FCF Yield is 9.7% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.5%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% | Key risksCART key risks include [1] intense competition from major retail partners developing their own delivery services and [2] regulatory challenges to its operational model's heavy reliance on independent contractors. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% | ||
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6%, FCF Yield is 9.7% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.5%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% |
| Key risksCART key risks include [1] intense competition from major retail partners developing their own delivery services and [2] regulatory challenges to its operational model's heavy reliance on independent contractors. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Maplebear (CART) stock has lost about 5% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Intensified Competitive Pressures and Operational Headwinds. Maplebear (Instacart) faced increasing competition from rivals such as DoorDash, Amazon, and Uber, which pressured its market share and profitability. This competitive environment contributed to a significant 7% year-over-year decline in gross profit per order and a 14% year-over-year decrease in web traffic during Q3 2025, contrasting with improvements seen by competitors. Additionally, the company reduced its anticipated advertising revenue for the latter half of 2025 to align with gross transaction volume, indicating potential challenges in maintaining revenue growth momentum.
2. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets. Several financial analysts lowered their ratings and price targets for Maplebear's stock during this period, reflecting a more cautious outlook. Stifel Nicolaus decreased its price target from $49.00 to $46.00 in January 2026, while Wall Street Zen downgraded its rating from "buy" to "hold". JPMorgan Chase & Co. had previously reduced its price objective from $65.00 to $55.00 in November 2025, and Deutsche Bank also lowered its price target to $40 from $56, maintaining a "Hold" rating. These revisions by prominent firms signaled growing concerns among investors.
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1. Intensified Competitive Pressures and Operational Headwinds. Maplebear (Instacart) faced increasing competition from rivals such as DoorDash, Amazon, and Uber, which pressured its market share and profitability. This competitive environment contributed to a significant 7% year-over-year decline in gross profit per order and a 14% year-over-year decrease in web traffic during Q3 2025, contrasting with improvements seen by competitors. Additionally, the company reduced its anticipated advertising revenue for the latter half of 2025 to align with gross transaction volume, indicating potential challenges in maintaining revenue growth momentum.
2. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets. Several financial analysts lowered their ratings and price targets for Maplebear's stock during this period, reflecting a more cautious outlook. Stifel Nicolaus decreased its price target from $49.00 to $46.00 in January 2026, while Wall Street Zen downgraded its rating from "buy" to "hold". JPMorgan Chase & Co. had previously reduced its price objective from $65.00 to $55.00 in November 2025, and Deutsche Bank also lowered its price target to $40 from $56, maintaining a "Hold" rating. These revisions by prominent firms signaled growing concerns among investors.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.8% change in CART stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.86 | 34.35 | -6.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,546 | 3,633 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.8% | 14.1% | 2.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.8 | 17.7 | -10.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 263 | 265 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CART | -6.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.7% | 21.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 13.9% | 5.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -28.4% change in CART stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -39.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.97 | 34.35 | -28.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,455 | 3,633 | 5.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.5% | 14.1% | 12.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.1 | 17.7 | -39.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 262 | 265 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -28.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CART | -28.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.5% | 12.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 9.7% | 3.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -28.9% change in CART stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -37.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 48.28 | 34.35 | -28.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,298 | 3,633 | 10.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.5% | 14.1% | 5.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.2 | 17.7 | -37.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 260 | 265 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -28.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CART | -28.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 29.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 12.2% | 19.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CART | ||
| Market (SPY) | 72.9% | 29.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 26.8% | 18.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CART Return | - | - | -30% | 76% | 9% | -19% | 8% |
| Peers Return | 45% | 4% | 12% | 62% | 1% | -1% | 176% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CART Win Rate | - | - | 0% | 67% | 50% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 52% | 50% | 65% | 53% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CART Max Drawdown | - | - | -31% | -4% | -16% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -15% | -11% | -6% | -15% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KR, CASY, ACI, CART, SFM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
CART has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) in its place.
| Event | XLP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 682 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 404 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 605 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to KR, CASY, ACI, CART, SFM
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -17.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -17.5% loss requires a 21.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Maplebear (CART)
Instacart is powering the future of grocery through technology. We partner with retailers to help them successfully navigate the digital transformation of their businesses. Instacart was founded in 2012 to bring the grocery industry online and help make grocery shopping effortless. We started by understanding what consumers want and then built enterprise-grade technologies that allow retailers to meet those needs. We want to enable any retailer, large or small, to drive success both online and in-store and serve their customers better in all of the ways they choose to shop. Today, more than 1,400 national, regional, and local retail banners(1) that collectively represent more than 85% of the U.S. grocery market partner with Instacart(2). We have demonstrated our ability to help our retail partners drive strong growth and stay competitive in a complex and increasingly digital industry. Our GTV, representing the online sales we power for all of our retail partners, grew at a compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of 80% between 2018 and 2022, compared to 50% for the overall online grocery market and 1% for offline grocery(3). In 2022, we generated approximately $29 billion of GTV, which makes Instacart the leading grocery technology company in North America(4). Instacart invented a new model for online grocery shopping by offering consumers on-demand delivery from the stores they know and trust. We help our retail partners reach 7.7 million monthly active orderers who spend approximately $317 per month on average on Instacart(5). Retailers reach customers through both Instacart Marketplace, where customers can shop from their favorite retailers through our app or website, and retailers’ owned and operated online storefronts that are powered by Instacart Enterprise Platform, our end-to-end technology solution encompassing eCommerce, fulfillment, Connected Stores, ads and marketing, and insights. When shopping for groceries, consumers want selection, quality, value, and convenience, and they shop in many different ways. Instacart started as a way for households to conveniently manage their weekly grocery shopping, a recurring and high order value consumer use case. Today, customers can place orders for delivery or pickup across a variety of use cases including the weekly shop, bulk stock-up, convenience, and special occasions. Customers can select the fulfillment option and speed that best serve their needs. For example, a busy parent may prefer the reliability of having their family’s groceries delivered every Sunday, but if they need a few items in the middle of the week, they can trust Instacart to help deliver the items they need with priority delivery (as fast as 30 minutes). Each order can be shopped for and delivered with care by one of the hundreds of thousands of shoppers who value the flexible earnings opportunities that Instacart provides(6). As consumers and retailers move online, CPG brands can use Instacart Ads as a new way to reach customers at the point of purchase and within minutes of delivery and consumption. Today, over 5,500 brands are using Instacart Ads and are now more easily discoverable as customers fill their digital carts(7). Instacart Ads offers brands a highly measurable ads offering that leverages first-party transaction data to move products off of store shelves more efficiently. --- Instacart Technology Grocery retailers have earned the trust and loyalty of customers over generations by offering selection, quality, value, and convenience. For more than a decade, we have invested in technology that is custom-built for online grocery. We believe our scaled marketplace provides us with unique insights into the needs of the online grocery consumer. Our strategy is to put our technology capabilities and consumer insights into the hands of our retail partners. We are investing more in technology custom-built for online grocery than any single grocer could on their own, allowing grocers to leverage our scale and investments to grow their businesses. Our technology solutions are better together. Since our founding, Instacart Marketplace has powered more than $100 billion of GTV and over 900 million orders with approximately 20 billion items ordered(8). This scale gives us unique insights into consumer buying behavior, needs, and trends across the entire grocery industry in North America. We then utilize these insights to enhance Instacart Enterprise Platform, ensuring retailers can best meet their customers’ needs across their owned and operated online and physical storefronts. Similarly, Instacart Enterprise Platform enhances Instacart Marketplace, as our deep integration with retailers allows us to expand marketplace capabilities for our customers. As we continue to scale and refine our technology and data insights across Instacart Marketplace and Instacart Enterprise Platform, our algorithms continuously improve to provide significant benefits, including better search results and recommendations, more intelligent replacements, and more seamless checkout flows, among others. Many of these benefits also enhance the value delivered to our brand partners — for example, in the second quarter of 2023, we helped customers discover over 180 million items through recommendations. This draws more brands to Instacart Ads, which yields benefits for Instacart Marketplace and Instacart Enterprise Platform. • Instacart Marketplace. Connects customers to their favorite national, regional, and local retailers on the largest online grocery marketplace in North America through our mobile app or website(9). • Instacart Enterprise Platform. Provides retailers with a suite of enterprise-grade technologies that span eCommerce, fulfillment, Connected Stores, ads and marketing, and insights. • Instacart Ads. Allows CPG brands to drive sales by engaging with customers who are actively shopping for products on Instacart, whom we refer to as high-intent customers, in a highly measurable and targeted way while also providing savings and product discovery to customers through our leading digital advertising solutions and insights. Instacart is built for the entire grocery ecosystem, improving the experiences for each of our constituents and helping them succeed: • Retailers. We enable more than 1,400 retail banners to grow by providing technology that can accelerate the digital transformation of their entire business(10). Our retail partners include national leaders such as Aldi, Costco, and Kroger, regional favorites such as Publix and Wegmans, local mainstays like Mollie Stone’s Markets, and retailers serving many specific use cases, such as Best Buy, Lowe’s, Sephora, and Walgreens. We estimate that the sales volume we power for our top 20 retail partners represented 5.0% of their total sales in 2022, up from 0.6% in 2018(11). • Customers. We help 7.7 million monthly active orderers(12) shop at their favorite retailers and enjoy selection, quality, value, and convenience. We reach over 95% of households in North America(13). Our membership program, Instacart+, offers expanded customer benefits to our 5.1 million members(14), including unlimited free delivery on orders over a certain size, a reduced service fee, credit back on eligible pickup orders, and exclusive benefits. • Brands. We represent one of the largest and fastest growing eCommerce channels for CPG brands. We provide discovery and attractive return on investment, or ROI, for over 5,500 brands through our industry-leading advertising tools and insights purpose-built for the online grocery category(15). We estimate that on average, our ads deliver more than a 15% incremental sales lift, and in some cases twice that, for our brand partners(16). Our brand partners include household brands such as Campbell’s, Nestlé, and Pepsi and emerging brands such as Banza, Chloe’s Fruit Pops, and Whisps. • Shoppers. We offer approximately 600,000 shoppers an immediate, flexible earnings opportunity that allows them to choose when and how much to work(17). Because the most important part of the job is picking the right products for customers, Instacart tends to attract people who use empathy, efficiency, communication, and problem-solving to pick, pack, and deliver an order. Shoppers are deeply valued members of the Instacart community, and we strive to make the shopping experience as seamless as possible and protect shoppers while they work. (1) As of June 30, 2023. (2) Based on total grocery sales in 2022, excluding alcohol sales. CSG. (3) Incisiv. (4) Based on total online grocery sales in 2022. (5) For the month ended June 30, 2023. (6) As of June 30, 2023. (7) Active brand partners as of June 30, 2023. (8) As of July 31, 2023. (9) Based on GTV generated on Instacart and total grocery sales in 2022. (10) As of June 30, 2023. (11) Based on total grocery sales in 2022, excluding alcohol sales. CSG. (12) For the month ended June 30, 2023. The number of monthly active orderers may overstate the number of unique individuals, as one customer may register for, and use, multiple accounts. Fluctuations in the number of monthly active orderers are not necessarily indicative of changes in our financial performance. (13) U.S. Census Bureau (July 2021) and Statistics Canada (2021). Based on number of households in Instacart’s active delivery-enabled or pickup zones as of June 30, 2023. (14) As of June 30, 2023. Includes paying Instacart+ members only and excludes free trial members. (15) Active brand partners as of June 30, 2023. (16) Based on internal tests run across all brand partners using our Sponsored Product ads offering in the quarter ended June 30, 2023 and individual tests run for select brands or types of brands. (17) Based on shoppers who completed at least one order during the month ended June 30, 2023. We were incorporated as Maplebear Inc. in Delaware in 2012, and we do business as Instacart. Our co-founders are Apoorva Mehta, Max Mullen, and Brandon Leonardo. Our principal executive offices are located at 50 Beale Street, Suite 600, San Francisco, California.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Maplebear (Instacart):
- DoorDash for groceries
- Uber Eats for groceries
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Online Grocery Delivery & Pickup Service: A platform enabling customers to order groceries and everyday essentials from local stores for delivery or in-store pickup.
- Retailer Fulfillment & E-commerce Solutions: Provides technology and logistics to power grocery retailers' online ordering, fulfillment, and delivery operations.
- Advertising Platform: Offers advertising solutions for CPG brands and retailers to promote their products and reach customers on the Instacart platform.
- Instacart+ Membership: A subscription program providing consumers with benefits such as unlimited free delivery on eligible grocery orders.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Maplebear (CART) Major Customers
Maplebear (Instacart) operates a two-sided marketplace connecting consumers with retailers. While it partners with thousands of grocery retailers and offers advertising solutions to Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) brands, its core service, from a revenue and public perception standpoint, is primarily directed towards individuals who pay for grocery delivery and pickup convenience.
Based on this, the primary categories of individual customers Instacart serves are:
- Convenience-Oriented Shoppers: These customers prioritize saving time and effort associated with grocery shopping. They are willing to pay for the convenience of having groceries delivered directly to their homes or prepared for quick pickup. This category includes busy professionals, parents with young children, and individuals who value delegating mundane tasks to free up time for other activities.
- Accessibility-Dependent Shoppers: This category encompasses individuals who face challenges with traditional in-person grocery shopping due to various factors such as mobility limitations, age (e.g., seniors), temporary or permanent disabilities, or lack of personal transportation. Instacart provides a vital service that enables these customers to access essential groceries conveniently and independently.
- Large Household / Bulk Purchasers: These customers often place large, heavy, or complex grocery orders that would be cumbersome or difficult to transport themselves. Families or individuals stocking up on groceries find the delivery service particularly valuable for managing larger hauls, reducing the physical effort and logistical challenges of big shopping trips.
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Major Suppliers:
- Amazon.com, Inc. (Symbol: AMZN) - Provides cloud infrastructure services (Amazon Web Services or AWS)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Chris Rogers, Chief Executive Officer Chris Rogers was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Instacart, doing business as Maplebear Inc., on August 15, 2025. He joined Instacart in 2019 as Chief Business Officer, overseeing commercial operations, retailer relationships, ad sales, partnerships, and mergers and acquisitions. Prior to Instacart, he spent nearly 11 years at Apple, where he served as Managing Director for Apple Canada and led Apple's carrier channel and consumer retail business in Canada. Rogers began his career at Procter & Gamble, managing relationships with Canada's largest national grocery retailers. He also serves on the Board of Spins and the Ad Council. Emily Maher, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer Emily Maher (also known as Emily Reuter Maher) serves as the Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer at Instacart. She was promoted to CFO in May 2024, after joining Instacart as Vice President Finance in January 2024. Before joining Instacart, Maher held various leadership roles at Uber from 2014 to 2023, including Vice President and Head of Corporate Finance, where she was responsible for capital allocation and led Uber's IPO process. Her prior experience also includes Corporate Development & Strategy at Asurion, a Growth Equity Associate role at 3i, and consulting at Bain & Company. Fidji Simo, Chair of the Board Fidji Simo, the former CEO of Instacart, now serves as the Chair of the Board, a role she assumed in September 2023 following the company's initial public offering. Simo was CEO of Instacart from 2021 until August 2025. Before her tenure at Instacart, she spent a decade at Facebook (now Meta), where she was a top executive, including Vice President and Head of the Facebook app. During her time at Facebook, she oversaw the development and strategy for key products and led the team in architecting Facebook's advertising business. Simo joined Facebook from eBay in 2011, where she worked on local commerce and classified-advertising initiatives. She co-founded the Metrodora Institute, a health clinic and research institute, and is president of The Metrodora Foundation. Simo also serves on the Board of Directors at OpenAI and Shopify. Dani Dudeck, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer Dani Dudeck is the Chief Corporate Affairs Officer at Instacart, a role she has held since joining the company in 2018. She is responsible for overseeing the company's communications, social impact, policy, and government affairs practice groups. Prior to Instacart, Dudeck served as the Chief Communications Officer for Zynga and as Vice President of Global Communications for News Corp's MySpace. Her career began in PR agencies such as Cohn & Wolfe, Hill & Knowlton, and Edelman. Laura Jones, Chief Marketing Officer Laura Jones is the Chief Marketing Officer at Instacart, where she leads the company's marketing strategies and drives brand growth. Her background includes senior roles at Uber and Google. Jones holds an MBA from Stanford University and a BA from Dartmouth College.AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Maplebear's (symbol: CART) business are:1. Intense Competition
Maplebear, operating as Instacart, faces intense competition within the grocery delivery market from various well-capitalized players. Major retailers such as Walmart, Target, and Kroger are heavily investing in and developing their own online grocery and delivery services. Additionally, other significant competitors like Amazon, DoorDash, and Uber pose considerable threats. This competitive landscape can lead to a loss of market share, significant pricing pressure, and potentially slower growth for Instacart. Amazon's expansion into online grocery delivery, including partnerships with large U.S. grocers, is particularly highlighted as a major risk that could reduce Instacart's revenue growth and margins.
2. Changing Consumer Spending Habits and Economic Pressures
Economic challenges, particularly inflation, are significantly impacting consumer spending patterns, which in turn affects Instacart's business. Consumers are reportedly reducing discretionary spending, leading to fewer orders and a decline in the average order value for Instacart, which often operates with a premium pricing model. This trend is causing some consumers to return to in-store shopping to avoid delivery fees and take advantage of in-store promotions, thereby impacting Instacart's order volume and revenue. Online grocery deliveries are also considered a less attractive option during economic downturns, such as a recession, when in-store shopping is generally cheaper.
3. Dependence on Independent Contractors and Regulatory Challenges
Instacart's operational model relies heavily on a workforce of independent contractors (shoppers) to fulfill orders. This reliance exposes the company to significant regulatory risks concerning worker classification and evolving labor laws. Potential changes in legislation or adverse legal challenges could compel Instacart to reclassify its shoppers as employees, which would likely result in substantially increased labor costs and potential operational disruptions. Furthermore, the gig worker model can lead to issues related to worker conditions, and instances of poor service or scams by independent contractors could negatively impact Instacart's brand reputation.
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Emerging Threats for Maplebear (CART):
- Grocery Retailers' In-House Delivery and Pickup Expansion: Major grocery chains, including Walmart, Kroger, Amazon (Whole Foods, Amazon Fresh), and Target (Shipt), are significantly increasing their investment in and promotion of their own direct-to-consumer online ordering, delivery, and in-store pickup services. These retailers are leveraging their existing brand loyalty, store infrastructure, and loyalty programs (e.g., Walmart+) to capture a larger share of the online grocery market directly, potentially reducing their reliance on third-party aggregators like Instacart. This trend is evident in their marketing campaigns and quarterly earnings calls highlighting e-commerce growth.
- Expansion of Competitors into Grocery Delivery: Companies like DoorDash and Uber Eats, which have established large networks of drivers and strong brand recognition in the restaurant delivery sector, are aggressively expanding their offerings into the grocery and convenience store delivery market. They are actively forming partnerships with grocery chains, many of whom also work with Instacart, and investing heavily in attracting grocery customers. This intensifies competition for retailer partnerships, shopper acquisition, and consumer market share, potentially leading to price compression and margin erosion for Instacart.
- Increased Regulatory Scrutiny on Gig Economy Labor: There is ongoing legislative and judicial pressure in various jurisdictions (e.g., several U.S. states and cities, and internationally) to reclassify gig workers, like Instacart's shoppers, from independent contractors to employees, or to impose more extensive benefits and protections. Should such regulations be widely enacted, Instacart's operating costs related to wages, benefits, and administrative overhead could substantially increase, significantly impacting its profitability and potentially requiring fundamental changes to its business model.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Maplebear Inc. (symbol: CART), operating as Instacart, primarily offers online grocery shopping and delivery services. The addressable markets for its main products and services are as follows:
-
Online Grocery Shopping and Delivery/Pickup Services:
- Global: The global online grocery market was valued at approximately $709.13 billion to $710.10 billion in 2024. This market is projected to reach between $6,590.92 billion and $8,490.41 billion by 2033-2034. Another estimate suggests growth from $401.8 billion in 2025 to $3,950.7 billion by 2035.
- U.S.: The online grocery market in the United States is expected to reach approximately $327.7 billion in 2025. Projections indicate that the U.S. online grocery market could grow from $183.26 billion in 2024 to $715.54 billion by 2033. Instacart's addressable market in the U.S. is estimated to potentially reach $700 billion to $750 billion by 2040, assuming a 30% online penetration of the overall U.S. grocery market.
- North America: The online grocery delivery market in North America reached approximately $180.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to climb to $273.60 billion by 2030. Another projection indicates the North America online grocery shopping market revenue is expected to reach nearly $523.15 billion by 2029.
- Advertising Services (Instacart Ads): null
- Enterprise Solutions for Retailers (e.g., white-label e-commerce platforms and fulfillment services): null
- Subscription Services (Instacart+): null
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Maplebear (NASDAQ: CART), operating as Instacart, is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Growth in Customer Engagement and Order Frequency: Instacart is focusing on increasing its user base and encouraging more frequent orders. The company reported a 14% increase in orders in Q1 2025, representing its strongest order growth in ten quarters, driven by an uptick in both users and order frequency. Initiatives like reducing minimum basket sizes, such as the $10 minimum for Instacart+ members, are designed to boost order frequency and Instacart+ adoption. This strategy also aims to cultivate customer grocery habits for better retention.
- Expansion of Advertising Services: A significant driver for Instacart is the continued growth and diversification of its advertising platform. Advertising and other revenue increased by 14% year-over-year in Q1 2025, outpacing Gross Transaction Value (GTV) growth. The company is expanding its ad business by attracting a wider range of brand partners, particularly emerging brands, and increasing the number of sites where ads appear. Analysts project this segment could see 15-20% ad revenue growth over two years, leveraging Instacart’s first-party data and extensive network.
- Development and Expansion of Enterprise Solutions: Instacart is enhancing its "Instacart Platform," a suite of technology products and services for retailers. These solutions assist grocers with e-commerce, order fulfillment, digitizing brick-and-mortar stores, and providing valuable insights. The acquisition of Wynshop is expected to further strengthen this strategy by powering more storefronts and expanding retailer partnerships. The company is also exploring new areas such as Caper (smart carts) and dedicated B2B services through Instacart Business and Instacart Health, diversifying its revenue streams.
- Leveraging AI Technologies for Operational Efficiency and New Offerings: Instacart is integrating artificial intelligence across its operations to improve efficiency and drive innovation. In Q1 2025, 87% of its code development involved AI assistance. This includes AI-driven optimization in areas like dynamic route planning for delivery drivers and personalized product recommendations. The company's strategic focus on AI is anticipated to expand its capabilities and contribute to future growth.
- Strategic Investments in Affordability and Loyalty Programs: To attract and retain customers, Instacart is prioritizing affordability. This includes integrating loyalty programs, supporting SNAP benefits, and working with retailers to ensure price parity with in-store prices. Collaborations, such as the one with Costco offering delivery credits, have shown positive results in boosting basket sizes and repeat orders. By making the service more affordable and valuable, Instacart aims to reduce customer churn and accelerate online grocery adoption.
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Share Repurchases
- Maplebear's board approved an increase to its share repurchase program to an aggregate of $1 billion on May 22, 2025, up from $750 million authorized in June and November 2024.
- As of March 31, 2025, approximately $218 million of capacity remained under the existing share repurchase program.
- The company had completed two previous rounds of authorized buybacks totaling $1 billion, repurchasing approximately 34 million shares, before June 2024.
Share Issuance
- Maplebear completed its initial public offering (IPO) on September 19, 2023, raising approximately $660 million by selling 22 million shares at $30 per share.
- Of the IPO shares, 14.1 million were sold by Instacart, and 7.9 million were sold by existing stockholders.
- PepsiCo agreed to purchase $175 million in convertible preferred stock through a private placement concurrent with the IPO.
Inbound Investments
- In March 2021, Instacart raised $265 million in a private equity round led by Andreessen Horowitz, D1 Capital Partners, Fidelity, Sequoia Capital, and T. Rowe Price, achieving a valuation of $39 billion.
- In October 2020, Instacart secured $200 million in a private equity round from D1 Capital Partners and Valiant Peregrine Fund to support growth and operational expansion.
- In June 2020, Instacart raised $225 million in a financing round led by DST Global and General Catalyst, with D1 Capital Partners participating, increasing the company's valuation to $13.7 billion.
Outbound Investments
- In May 2025, Instacart acquired Wynshop, a platform specializing in digital commerce and fulfillment technology for grocery businesses.
- In October 2021, Instacart acquired Caper AI, a smart cart and checkout technology platform, for $350 million.
- In 2022, Instacart acquired Eversight, an artificial intelligence pricing platform, and Rosie, an e-commerce platform for local and independent retailers.
Capital Expenditures
- Maplebear's capital expenditure (capex) was -$64.00 million in fiscal year 2024.
- In the last 12 months, capital expenditures totaled -$60.00 million.
- The company is making deliberate investments to drive profitable growth and strengthen its leadership position, with ongoing plant property purchases and investments totaling over $80 million quarterly.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 66.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.5 |
| Rev LTM | 16,970 |
| Op Inc LTM | 897 |
| FCF LTM | 682 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 603 |
| CFO LTM | 1,258 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,033 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.5 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 16.4 |
| P/E | 17.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 60.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -22.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -7.0% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $34.35 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 9.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/19/2023 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -35.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $42.09 | $43.25 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | -18.4% | -20.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 39.8% | 44.5% |
| Downside Capture | 76.25 | 77.19 |
| Upside Capture | 60.63 | 31.43 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 13.8% | 28.6% |
CART Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.35 | -0.17 | 0.44 | 0.29 | 0.65 | 0.02 |
| Up Beta | -0.57 | -2.51 | -0.70 | 0.05 | 0.66 | 0.24 |
| Down Beta | 0.34 | 0.41 | 0.74 | 0.95 | 0.91 | 0.18 |
| Up Capture | -146% | -79% | 56% | -25% | 16% | 24% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 23 | 37 | 69 | 131 | 309 |
| Down Capture | 290% | 74% | 60% | 43% | 71% | 85% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 18 | 24 | 56 | 119 | 282 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CART | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CART | -33.8% | 44.4% | -0.80 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 12.7% | 14.0% | 0.62 | 20.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 19.3% | 0.54 | 30.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 69.7% | 24.7% | 2.11 | 0.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 16.6% | 0.24 | 16.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 16.5% | 0.09 | 20.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.6% | 40.5% | -0.66 | 12.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CART | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CART | -0.8% | 45.6% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 8.9% | 13.1% | 0.46 | 18.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.4% | 17.0% | 0.67 | 29.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.8% | 16.9% | 1.01 | 5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 20.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 16.0% | 57.4% | 0.49 | 11.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CART | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CART | -0.4% | 45.6% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 8.5% | 14.6% | 0.45 | 18.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 29.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.4% | 15.5% | 0.83 | 5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 17.6% | 0.37 | 14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.0% | 20.7% | 0.26 | 20.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 69.0% | 66.5% | 1.08 | 11.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | 1.6% | 11.7% | 18.3% |
| 8/7/2025 | 3.7% | -11.2% | -8.5% |
| 2/25/2025 | -12.3% | -21.2% | -17.3% |
| 11/12/2024 | -11.0% | -11.5% | -13.3% |
| 8/6/2024 | 2.8% | 2.3% | 10.1% |
| 5/8/2024 | -3.7% | -12.4% | -12.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 7.0% | 14.2% |
| Median Negative | -11.0% | -11.9% | -12.7% |
| Max Positive | 3.7% | 11.7% | 18.3% |
| Max Negative | -12.3% | -21.2% | -17.3% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fong, Morgan | GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 45.21 | 4,914 | 222,168 | 18,307,813 | Form |
| 2 | Laughton, Mary Beth | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 40.72 | 4,056 | 165,168 | 614,003 | Form | |
| 3 | Fong, Morgan | GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 41.25 | 4,914 | 202,702 | 16,906,478 | Form |
| 4 | Simo, Fidji | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 39.91 | 4,065 | 162,254 | 22,578,884 | Form | |
| 5 | Fong, Morgan | GENERAL COUNSEL & SECRETARY | Direct | Sell | 10222025 | 38.85 | 3,546 | 137,762 | 16,609,269 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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