Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
 
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
 
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.6%
 
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
 
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Online Marketplaces, Show more.
 
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 6.6%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Online Marketplaces, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CART Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Slower Growth Projections and Increasing Competition

Concerns over a slowdown in growth and an intensely competitive grocery delivery market have impacted investor sentiment. Instacart, operating as Maplebear, has faced challenges as major retail partners increasingly handle their own e-commerce fulfillment, and competition from players like Kroger, Walmart, DoorDash, and Uber Eats intensifies.

2. Decline in Average Order Value (AOV) and Shifting Consumer Habits

Reports indicated a decrease in the average order value (AOV), suggesting that customers are spending less per order. This shift in consumer behavior, potentially driven by increased price sensitivity or a return to in-store shopping, poses a challenge to Instacart's growth.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CART Return----76%0%77%
Peers Return6%36%3%18%62%3%194%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CART Win Rate---0%67%40% 
Peers Win Rate50%52%42%50%65%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CART Max Drawdown-----4%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-13%-2%-12%-5%-6%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KR, CASY, CART, ACI, SFM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

CART has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-17.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven682 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-24.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven154 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-16.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven404 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-33.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven605 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -17.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -17.5% loss requires a 21.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Maplebear (CART)

Better Bets than Maplebear (CART)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CART. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Maplebear

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CARTKRCASYACISFMMedian
NameMaplebearKroger Casey's .Albertso.Sprouts . 
Mkt Price42.6266.20555.3017.9485.1066.20
Mkt Cap11.243.820.610.08.311.2
Rev LTM3,546147,00016,41081,3718,65416,410
Op Inc LTM5263,9258501,558678850
FCF LTM7792,212666659458666
FCF 3Y Avg5972,268476606359597
CFO LTM8396,0181,1822,5887021,182
CFO 3Y Avg6516,1149872,608584987

Growth & Margins

CARTKRCASYACISFMMedian
NameMaplebearKroger Casey's .Albertso.Sprouts . 
Rev Chg LTM10.5%-2.1%8.7%2.1%16.6%8.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.7%4.9%2.6%11.1%3.8%
Rev Chg Q11.1%0.1%11.5%2.0%13.1%11.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.6%0.0%2.9%0.4%3.0%2.6%
Op Mgn LTM14.8%2.7%5.2%1.9%7.8%5.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-13.4%2.4%4.8%2.3%6.7%2.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.7%0.0%0.2%-0.1%0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM23.7%4.1%7.2%3.2%8.1%7.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg19.9%4.1%6.4%3.3%7.6%6.4%
FCF/Rev LTM22.0%1.5%4.1%0.8%5.3%4.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg18.3%1.5%3.1%0.8%4.7%3.1%

Valuation

CARTKRCASYACISFMMedian
NameMaplebearKroger Casey's .Albertso.Sprouts . 
Mkt Cap11.243.820.610.08.311.2
P/S3.40.31.20.11.21.2
P/EBIT22.611.922.36.115.715.7
P/E24.317.432.610.020.720.7
P/CFO14.27.916.03.815.114.2
Total Yield4.1%7.6%3.5%13.3%4.8%4.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.9%0.4%3.3%0.0%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-6.0%3.5%5.6%4.5%5.1%
D/E0.00.50.21.50.20.2
Net D/E-0.10.40.11.50.10.1

Returns

CARTKRCASYACISFMMedian
NameMaplebearKroger Casey's .Albertso.Sprouts . 
1M Rtn13.8%4.9%8.1%2.0%1.5%4.9%
3M Rtn-4.1%-2.4%11.3%-6.4%-38.5%-4.1%
6M Rtn-7.7%0.8%24.2%-14.9%-50.3%-7.7%
12M Rtn-2.5%12.6%33.6%-4.5%-43.7%-2.5%
3Y Rtn-48.8%141.1%-7.7%146.5%95.0%
1M Excs Rtn13.9%4.9%8.1%2.0%1.6%4.9%
3M Excs Rtn-9.5%-7.2%6.2%-10.7%-44.6%-9.5%
6M Excs Rtn-22.5%-13.9%9.4%-29.6%-65.0%-22.5%
12M Excs Rtn-16.0%-3.0%19.0%-20.5%-58.5%-16.0%
3Y Excs Rtn--27.8%62.1%-79.6%78.8%17.1%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity17,869,393
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202515.3%
Average Daily Volume8,558,929
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.09
Basic Shares Quantity262,588,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023305202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231113202310-Q 9/30/2023
123120229202023424B4 12/31/2022