Maplebear (CART)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $44.83 | Market Cap: $11.9 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail
Maplebear (CART)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $44.83Market Cap: $11.9 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.0% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -17% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.0% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CART Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining recent movements in Maplebear (CART) stock:
**1. Strong Q3 2024 Financial Performance.**
Maplebear (Instacart) reported robust third-quarter 2024 results, including an 11% year-over-year increase in Gross Transaction Value (GTV) to $8,303 million and a 12% rise in total revenue to $852 million. The company also achieved its fourth consecutive quarter of positive GAAP net income, reaching $118 million, and a 39% year-over-year growth in Adjusted EBITDA to $227 million.
**2. Q4 2024 Earnings Beat, Followed by Stock Decline.**
Despite reporting stronger-than-expected earnings per share of $0.53 for the fourth quarter of 2024, surpassing forecasts, Instacart's stock experienced a 9.14% drop in aftermarket trading, closing at $44.32. This decline occurred even as revenue of $883 million exceeded anticipated figures, suggesting investor concerns despite the positive earnings surprise.
**3. Integration with ChatGPT Led to Stock Jump.**
In December 2025, Instacart launched an embedded shopping and checkout application within ChatGPT, becoming the first grocery partner to offer such an end-to-end shopping feature directly within the AI assistant. This strategic partnership allowed users to manage grocery lists and complete purchases directly in the chat interface, and on December 9, 2025, Instacart's shares jumped 6% in the afternoon session, ultimately closing up 3.9% from the previous close.
**4. Increased Competition from Amazon's Ultrafast Delivery Service.**
Reports in early December 2025 indicated that Amazon launched its own ultrafast grocery delivery service, which was perceived as a direct challenge to Instacart's core business. This competitive development led to a 3.1% decline in Instacart's stock shortly before the ChatGPT integration announcement.
**5. Controversy Surrounding AI-Powered Dynamic Pricing.**
In December 2025, several investigations and reports surfaced, accusing Instacart of utilizing AI-powered dynamic pricing strategies that allegedly presented different customers with varying prices for identical grocery items from the same stores. This practice raised concerns among consumer groups and prompted calls for federal regulatory action regarding transparency and potential price gouging.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CART Return | � | � | � | � | 76% | 8% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | 62% | 1% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CART Win Rate | � | � | � | 0% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | 50% | 65% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CART Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -4% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -6% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KR, CASY, CART, ACI, SFM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
CART has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) in its place.
| Event | XLP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 682 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 404 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 605 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -17.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -17.5% loss requires a 21.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CART. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.7% | -5.7% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.9% | 12.9% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.7% | 4.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.3% | 0.3% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.7% | -5.7% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.9% | 12.9% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.7% | 4.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.3% | 0.3% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Maplebear
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 63.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.9 |
| Rev LTM | 16,970 |
| Op Inc LTM | 897 |
| FCF LTM | 682 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 606 |
| CFO LTM | 1,258 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,033 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.9 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 15.7 |
| P/E | 23.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 91.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 9.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | 1.6% | 11.7% | |
| 8/7/2025 | 3.7% | -11.2% | -8.5% |
| 2/25/2025 | -12.3% | -21.2% | -17.3% |
| 11/12/2024 | -11.0% | -11.5% | -13.3% |
| 8/6/2024 | 2.8% | 2.3% | 10.1% |
| 5/8/2024 | -3.7% | -12.4% | -12.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| # Negative | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 7.0% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -11.0% | -11.9% | -12.7% |
| Max Positive | 3.7% | 11.7% | 10.1% |
| Max Negative | -12.3% | -21.2% | -17.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11102025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 9202023 | 424B4 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |