Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -89%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.1%
1   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11%
2   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 65%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 130%
6   Key risks
BTBD key risks include [1] substantial execution risk from its strategic overhaul and diversification into unrelated sectors like biotech and drones, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12%
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -89%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.1%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11%
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 65%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 130%
8 Key risks
BTBD key risks include [1] substantial execution risk from its strategic overhaul and diversification into unrelated sectors like biotech and drones, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BTBD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period for BT Brands (BTBD) stock movement analysis, from August 31, 2025, to today (December 20, 2025), is in the future. As an AI, I do not have access to real-time future market data or news events. However, based on the search results, there are some forward-looking statements and projections that refer to this period, along with actual past earnings reports and news that were released leading up to and during this specified future timeframe (as per current system time). Here are some key points that might influence stock movement for BT Brands during this general period, drawing from available forward-looking information and recent past events (relative to the current system date of December 20, 2025). Please note, the actual -26.1% movement cannot be confirmed or explained with certainty for a future period.

1. Q3 2025 Earnings Report: BT Brands announced record third-quarter 2025 profit of $0.15 per share for the thirteen weeks ended September 28, 2025, with net income of $914,975. This compared to a net loss of $219,000 in Q3 2024. Revenue for the quarter was $3.9 million, down from $4.3 million in the prior year, primarily due to two fewer operating locations. Operating income increased significantly to $735,000, including a $242,000 gain on asset sales, compared to a loss of $75,000 in Q3 2024.

2. Proposed Business Combination with Aero Velocity, Inc.: On September 2, 2025, BT Brands entered into a definitive Merger Agreement with Aero Velocity, Inc. (Aero), an emerging leader in drone services. Under the agreement, Aero will merge with a BT Brands subsidiary. This strategic move is anticipated to deliver value to shareholders through a spinoff.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BTBD Return-38%37%-42%-3%
Peers Return15%4%-11%26%1%-21%7%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BTBD Win Rate0%25%25%25%50% 
Peers Win Rate60%48%42%52%37%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BTBD Max Drawdown-48%-20%-50%-31% 
Peers Max Drawdown-55%-11%-31%-7%-22%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, QSR, WEN, JACK, SHAK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBTBDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-68.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven213.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to BH, RICK, BRCB, CCHH, MCD


In The Past

BT Brands's stock fell -68.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/13/2021. A -68.1% loss requires a 213.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About BT Brands (BTBD)

Better Bets than BT Brands (BTBD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BTBD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.7%13.7%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%18.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%11.9%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.7%13.7%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%18.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%11.9%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for BT Brands

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BTBDMCDQSRWENJACKSHAKMedian
NameBT BrandsMcDonald.Restaura.Wendy's Jack In .Shake Sh. 
Mkt Price1.36315.8470.058.3819.4285.7144.73
Mkt Cap0.0225.223.01.60.43.42.5
Rev LTM1426,2639,1062,2081,3451,3731,791
Op Inc LTM-112,1132,34838120477293
FCF LTM-17,3721,354238-63238
FCF 3Y Avg-17,0491,240258-16258
CFO LTM-010,4851,588344-204344
CFO 3Y Avg-09,7041,405351-162351

Growth & Margins

BTBDMCDQSRWENJACKSHAKMedian
NameBT BrandsMcDonald.Restaura.Wendy's Jack In .Shake Sh. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.2%1.2%21.8%-0.2%-10.6%13.5%0.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.5%4.2%14.2%2.9%6.2%16.7%6.9%
Rev Chg Q-11.4%3.0%15.9%-3.0%-11.6%15.9%-0.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.4%0.8%3.8%-0.8%-3.1%3.8%0.0%
Op Mgn LTM-5.1%46.1%25.8%17.3%15.2%5.6%16.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-8.0%45.9%28.8%17.5%15.4%3.7%16.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.5%-0.0%-0.6%0.0%-1.4%0.5%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-0.9%39.9%17.4%15.6%-14.9%15.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-2.0%37.7%18.1%16.0%-13.2%16.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.2%28.1%14.9%10.8%-4.6%10.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-5.0%27.4%16.0%11.7%-0.9%11.7%

Valuation

BTBDMCDQSRWENJACKSHAKMedian
NameBT BrandsMcDonald.Restaura.Wendy's Jack In .Shake Sh. 
Mkt Cap0.0225.223.01.60.43.42.5
P/S0.68.62.50.70.32.51.6
P/EBIT-16.718.410.84.1-8.252.27.4
P/E-8.926.826.78.6-4.081.017.7
P/CFO-67.721.514.54.6-16.914.5
Total Yield-11.2%6.0%8.4%21.3%-22.7%1.2%3.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.2%4.6%9.6%2.3%0.0%2.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-6.2%3.4%5.8%9.2%-0.1%3.4%
D/E0.40.20.72.68.40.20.6
Net D/E-0.10.20.72.48.30.10.4

Returns

BTBDMCDQSRWENJACKSHAKMedian
NameBT BrandsMcDonald.Restaura.Wendy's Jack In .Shake Sh. 
1M Rtn-4.2%5.0%3.3%4.9%35.0%1.7%4.1%
3M Rtn-12.8%5.1%9.9%-8.7%2.6%-14.0%-3.0%
6M Rtn-0.7%11.2%8.1%-28.1%12.6%-35.6%3.7%
12M Rtn-6.2%11.4%11.0%-46.4%-49.1%-33.9%-20.0%
3Y Rtn-30.2%26.7%18.8%-57.0%-69.2%83.1%-5.7%
1M Excs Rtn-7.1%2.1%0.4%2.0%32.2%-1.2%1.2%
3M Excs Rtn-17.6%2.8%6.2%-10.6%2.0%-16.7%-4.3%
6M Excs Rtn-7.2%-3.1%-5.2%-43.3%-5.7%-50.2%-6.5%
12M Excs Rtn-30.0%-3.8%-5.2%-60.9%-67.0%-46.6%-38.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-96.7%-47.7%-56.0%-129.0%-140.9%2.5%-76.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024
Single Segment6
Total6


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity70,099
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-20.0%
Average Daily Volume47,146
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.49
Basic Shares Quantity6,154,724
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251117202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025819202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/29/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/29/2024
6302024814202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024515202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023401202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231115202310-Q 10/1/2023
6302023816202310-Q 7/2/2023
3312023517202310-Q 4/2/2023
12312022418202310-K 1/1/2023
93020221115202210-Q 10/2/2022
6302022816202210-Q 7/3/2022
3312022518202210-Q 4/3/2022
12312021317202210-K 1/2/2022