Tearsheet

Bowhead Specialty (BOW)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $26.21 | Market Cap: $859.2 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Bowhead Specialty (BOW)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $26.21
Market Cap: $859.2 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 37%
 
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -95%
 
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%
 
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63%
 
4 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41%
 
5 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
 
6 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Insurance Innovation & Risk Management. Themes include Specialty Underwriting, Insurtech Adoption, and Emerging Risk Coverage.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 37%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -95%
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63%
4 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41%
5 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
6 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Insurance Innovation & Risk Management. Themes include Specialty Underwriting, Insurtech Adoption, and Emerging Risk Coverage.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BOW Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback


1. The broader property and casualty insurance sector experienced general underperformance during the period, contributing to negative sentiment for Bowhead Specialty. As of early November 2025, the property & casualty insurance stock group had generally underperformed, with average share prices down 3.9% over the preceding month. During the same timeframe, Bowhead Specialty's stock was down 8.7%.

2. Technical analysis indicated a bearish sentiment and trend for Bowhead Specialty's stock in late November and early December. By November 29, 2025, the overall stock forecast sentiment for BOW was bearish based on technical analysis indicators. Furthermore, on December 2, 2025, analysis revealed a "more bearish overall moving average trend" for Bowhead Specialty. One forecast from November 30, 2025, even predicted a further -25.33% change over the subsequent month.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BOW Return------25%-25%
Peers Return4%27%11%16%31%12%151%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BOW Win Rate----57%30% 
Peers Win Rate60%57%53%62%68%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BOW Max Drawdown------33% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-6%-11%-14%-1%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

BOW has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4470 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Bowhead Specialty (BOW)

Better Bets than Bowhead Specialty (BOW)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BOW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Bowhead Specialty

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BOWHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameBowhead .Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Mkt Price26.23133.0458.19227.18295.05284.27180.11
Mkt Cap0.937.415.8133.2117.263.750.5
Rev LTM51927,69213,29782,37658,90048,40938,050
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM3285,8656,72716,47213,3219,9858,356
FCF 3Y Avg-4,9226,25012,35013,4098,6828,682
CFO LTM3335,9886,87216,80013,3219,9858,428
CFO 3Y Avg-5,1096,38812,63413,4098,6828,682

Growth & Margins

BOWHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameBowhead .Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Rev Chg LTM33.4%6.9%7.4%21.5%6.7%6.7%7.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-8.6%-0.7%20.0%12.2%10.1%10.1%
Rev Chg Q23.3%6.4%16.8%21.3%8.2%4.8%12.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.5%1.6%4.0%4.9%2.2%1.2%3.1%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM64.1%21.6%51.7%20.4%22.6%20.6%22.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-19.6%51.9%18.0%24.8%19.4%19.6%
FCF/Rev LTM63.2%21.2%50.6%20.0%22.6%20.6%21.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-18.9%50.8%17.6%24.8%19.4%19.4%

Valuation

BOWHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameBowhead .Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Mkt Cap0.937.415.8133.2117.263.750.5
P/S1.71.41.11.91.91.31.5
P/EBIT12.98.19.111.78.58.18.8
P/E16.910.514.215.011.610.712.9
P/CFO2.76.32.29.38.46.36.3
Total Yield5.9%11.1%10.6%8.5%10.0%10.2%10.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.6%3.6%1.8%1.3%0.8%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-15.8%50.1%10.3%12.9%17.2%15.8%
D/E0.00.10.30.00.20.10.1
Net D/E-0.9-0.5-1.8-0.0-0.2-1.4-0.7

Returns

BOWHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameBowhead .Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
1M Rtn7.7%7.5%5.1%11.5%6.0%6.2%6.9%
3M Rtn-16.2%0.4%-1.7%-7.9%6.4%3.2%-0.7%
6M Rtn-28.7%4.9%9.4%-19.4%1.8%5.4%3.3%
12M Rtn-26.8%12.0%-4.2%-11.7%4.5%10.9%0.1%
3Y Rtn-85.9%75.3%76.6%40.7%58.9%75.3%
1M Excs Rtn7.8%7.6%5.1%11.6%6.1%6.2%6.9%
3M Excs Rtn-23.5%-6.1%-8.2%-14.1%0.4%-3.2%-7.2%
6M Excs Rtn-43.4%-9.9%-5.3%-34.1%-12.9%-9.3%-11.4%
12M Excs Rtn-42.3%-3.4%-18.6%-27.3%-10.0%-4.9%-14.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-16.1%-0.1%7.2%-29.7%-11.1%-0.1%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,072,471
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.6%
Average Daily Volume282,368
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.80
Basic Shares Quantity32,782,300
Short % of Basic Shares3.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
123120235242024424B4 12/31/2023