Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $58.97 | Market Cap: $119.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $58.97Market Cap: $119.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69% | Key risks[BMY] key risks include [1] the impending patent expirations for its blockbuster drugs Eliquis, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 4.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69% |
| Key risks[BMY] key risks include [1] the impending patent expirations for its blockbuster drugs Eliquis, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) stock has gained about 20% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Performance and Optimistic 2026 Outlook. Bristol-Myers Squibb reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 5, 2026, with an adjusted EPS of $1.26, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates ranging from $1.12 to $1.15 per share. Quarterly revenue reached $12.50 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $12.24 billion and marking a 1.3% year-over-year increase. The company's growth portfolio, encompassing key products like Reblozyl, Opdualag, Breyanzi, and Camzyos, drove performance with a 15% revenue increase to $7.4 billion in Q4, representing approximately 60% of total quarterly revenue. Furthermore, the company provided an optimistic 2026 guidance, projecting non-GAAP revenue between $46.0 billion and $47.5 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $6.05 to $6.35.
2. Key FDA Approvals and Regulatory Milestones. Bristol-Myers Squibb received significant regulatory approvals and positive updates within the period. On March 7, 2026, the U.S. FDA approved Sotyktu (deucravacitinib) for the treatment of adults with active psoriatic arthritis, marking it as the first and only tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor approved for this indication, based on positive Phase 3 clinical trial results. Additionally, on December 11, 2025, the FDA granted priority review to the supplemental Biologics License Application for Opdivo in combination with chemotherapy for previously untreated Stage III or IV classical Hodgkin Lymphoma, setting a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) goal date of April 8, 2026.
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1. Strong Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Performance and Optimistic 2026 Outlook. Bristol-Myers Squibb reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 5, 2026, with an adjusted EPS of $1.26, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates ranging from $1.12 to $1.15 per share. Quarterly revenue reached $12.50 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $12.24 billion and marking a 1.3% year-over-year increase. The company's growth portfolio, encompassing key products like Reblozyl, Opdualag, Breyanzi, and Camzyos, drove performance with a 15% revenue increase to $7.4 billion in Q4, representing approximately 60% of total quarterly revenue. Furthermore, the company provided an optimistic 2026 guidance, projecting non-GAAP revenue between $46.0 billion and $47.5 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $6.05 to $6.35.
2. Key FDA Approvals and Regulatory Milestones. Bristol-Myers Squibb received significant regulatory approvals and positive updates within the period. On March 7, 2026, the U.S. FDA approved Sotyktu (deucravacitinib) for the treatment of adults with active psoriatic arthritis, marking it as the first and only tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor approved for this indication, based on positive Phase 3 clinical trial results. Additionally, on December 11, 2025, the FDA granted priority review to the supplemental Biologics License Application for Opdivo in combination with chemotherapy for previously untreated Stage III or IV classical Hodgkin Lymphoma, setting a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) goal date of April 8, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.5% change in BMY stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 48.63 | 59.08 | 21.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 48,034 | 48,195 | 0.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.6% | 14.6% | 16.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.4 | 17.0 | 3.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,036 | 2,034 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.5% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BMY | 21.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 20.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | -5.0% | 59.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.4% change in BMY stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 38.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 46.00 | 59.08 | 28.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 47,704 | 48,195 | 1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.6% | 14.6% | 38.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.5 | 17.0 | -8.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,035 | 2,034 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BMY | 28.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 13.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 9.5% | 57.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.1% change in BMY stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 56.75 | 59.08 | 4.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 48,300 | 48,195 | -0.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.4 | 2.5 | 4.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,030 | 2,034 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BMY | 4.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 23.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 1.9% | 64.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.8% change in BMY stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 60.15 | 59.08 | -1.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 46,159 | 48,195 | 4.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.7% | 14.6% | 6.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.0 | 17.0 | -15.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,109 | 2,034 | 3.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BMY | -1.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 17.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 23.3% | 51.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BMY Return | 3% | 19% | -26% | 16% | 0% | 13% | 18% |
| Peers Return | 36% | 21% | 2% | 8% | 26% | 7% | 143% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BMY Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 25% | 67% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 62% | 43% | 47% | 60% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BMY Max Drawdown | -12% | -1% | -30% | -20% | -21% | -0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -11% | -20% | -6% | -13% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MRK, PFE, JNJ, ABBV, LLY. See BMY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BMY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 476 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 743 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,084 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MRK, PFE, JNJ, ABBV, LLY
In The Past
Bristol-Myers Squibb's stock fell -40.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/2/2022. A -40.2% loss requires a 67.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, and markets biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers products for hematology, oncology, cardiovascular, immunology, fibrotic, neuroscience, and covid-19 diseases. The company's products include Revlimid, an oral immunomodulatory drug for the treatment of multiple myeloma; Eliquis, an oral inhibitor for reduction in risk of stroke/systemic embolism in NVAF, and for the treatment of DVT/PE; Opdivo for anti-cancer indications; Pomalyst/Imnovid indicated for patients with multiple myeloma; and Orencia for adult patients with active RA and psoriatic arthritis. It also provides Sprycel for the treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia; Yervoy for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma; Abraxane, a protein-bound chemotherapy product; Reblozyl for the treatment of anemia in adult patients with beta thalassemia; and Empliciti for the treatment of multiple myeloma. In addition, the company offers Zeposia to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis; Breyanzi, a CD19-directed genetically modified autologous T cell immunotherapy for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma; Inrebic, an oral kinase inhibitor indicated for the treatment of adult patients with myelofibrosis; and Onureg for the treatment of adult patients with AML. It sells products to wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, retailers, hospitals, clinics, and government agencies. The company was formerly known as Bristol-Myers Company. The company was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
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1. The Pfizer of oncology and immunology.
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- Revlimid: An oral immunomodulatory drug for the treatment of multiple myeloma.
- Eliquis: An oral inhibitor for reduction in risk of stroke/systemic embolism in NVAF, and for the treatment of DVT/PE.
- Opdivo: An anti-cancer medication.
- Pomalyst/Imnovid: Indicated for patients with multiple myeloma.
- Orencia: For adult patients with active RA and psoriatic arthritis.
- Sprycel: For the treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia.
- Yervoy: For the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma.
- Abraxane: A protein-bound chemotherapy product.
- Reblozyl: For the treatment of anemia in adult patients with beta thalassemia.
- Empliciti: For the treatment of multiple myeloma.
- Zeposia: To treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis.
- Breyanzi: A CD19-directed genetically modified autologous T cell immunotherapy for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma.
- Inrebic: An oral kinase inhibitor indicated for the treatment of adult patients with myelofibrosis.
- Onureg: For the treatment of adult patients with AML.
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Major Customers of Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) sells its biopharmaceutical products primarily to other companies and institutions rather than directly to individual consumers. Its major customers, therefore, are entities that purchase and distribute these products. Key categories of customers and specific public companies within those categories include:
- Pharmaceutical Wholesalers and Distributors: These are large companies that purchase pharmaceutical products in bulk from manufacturers like BMY and then distribute them to pharmacies, hospitals, and clinics. Major public companies in this sector include:
- McKesson Corporation (MCK)
- AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)
- Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)
- Pharmacies and Retailers: These include major pharmacy chains that stock and dispense BMY's prescription medications directly to patients. Key public companies in this sector include:
- CVS Health Corporation (CVS)
- Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA)
- Hospitals, Clinics, and Government Agencies: These institutions purchase Bristol-Myers Squibb's products for use in their healthcare facilities and programs. While generally not publicly traded companies themselves, they represent a significant portion of BMY's customer base.
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Chris Boerner, Board Chair and Chief Executive Officer
Chris Boerner was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Bristol Myers Squibb in November 2023 and Board Chair in April 2024. He joined the company in February 2015 and previously served as Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, and Chief Executive Officer Designate from April to November 2023. Prior to that, he was Executive Vice President, Chief Commercialization Officer since August 2018. Before joining Bristol Myers Squibb, he held leadership roles at Seattle Genetics, Inc. from 2010 to 2015 and at Genentech, a member of the Roche Group, from 2002 to 2010, focusing on oncology and immunology products. Earlier in his career, he worked for McKinsey & Company, consulting for global pharmaceutical and biotechnology clients.
David Elkins, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
David Elkins is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Bristol Myers Squibb. He joined the company as a result of the acquisition of Celgene, where he also served as Executive Vice President and CFO. Before his tenure at Celgene, Mr. Elkins was the CFO for Johnson & Johnson's Consumer Products and Medical Device businesses, as well as Corporate Functions. He also served as Executive Vice President and CFO of Becton, Dickinson and Company and held various leadership roles at AstraZeneca from 1995 to 2008, including VP & CFO of North America. He began his career in finance at The Boeing Company. Mr. Elkins currently serves on the Board of Directors for Tapestry, Inc.
Adam Lenkowsky, Executive Vice President, Chief Commercialization Officer
Adam Lenkowsky is the Executive Vice President, Chief Commercialization Officer, responsible for leading the worldwide Commercial and Medical organizations and driving growth across key franchises. He has over 25 years of experience in the biopharma industry, all with Bristol Myers Squibb, having started as a sales representative in 1997. Under his leadership, Bristol Myers Squibb expanded its portfolio through the acquisitions of Mirati Therapeutics, RayzeBio, and Karuna Therapeutics. His previous roles include head of Major Markets and general manager, U.S. Commercialization.
Cristian Massacesi, M.D., Executive Vice President, Chief Medical Officer and Head of Development
Cristian Massacesi, M.D., is the Executive Vice President, Chief Medical Officer and Head of Development at Bristol Myers Squibb.
Robert Plenge, M.D., Ph.D., Executive Vice President, Chief Research Officer
Robert Plenge, M.D., Ph.D., serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Research Officer at Bristol Myers Squibb.
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Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) faces several key risks to its business operations and financial performance:- Patent Cliff and Loss of Market Exclusivity: Bristol-Myers Squibb is confronting a significant "patent cliff" with several of its top-selling drugs, including Eliquis and Opdivo, projected to lose market exclusivity between 2025 and 2028. This is anticipated to result in a substantial decline in revenue, with estimates suggesting a potential revenue erosion of $10 billion to $13 billion from 2025 through 2028, and a "patent cliff" potentially reaching $30 billion. For instance, Eliquis, which generated approximately $10.5 billion in U.S. revenue in 2025, is expected to drop to around $8 billion by 2027 due to generic entries and pricing pressures. Revlimid's revenue erosion is also ongoing, and Sprycel is projected to see significant sales declines in 2025. The loss of exclusivity enables competitors to produce and sell cheaper generic or biosimilar versions, leading to a sharp and often catastrophic decline in the branded drug's revenue.
- Intense Competition: The biopharmaceutical industry is highly competitive, and Bristol-Myers Squibb faces significant rivalry in its core therapeutic areas such as oncology, immunology, and cardiovascular diseases. The company's market position is constantly challenged by competitors' blockbuster drugs and innovative pipelines. For example, in oncology, Opdivo faces strong competition from Merck's Keytruda, which has gained a significant advantage in the lucrative lung cancer market. The increasing competition from biologic competitors and cell-therapy entrants, along with the need to protect key revenue streams from pricing reforms, further intensifies this risk.
- Regulatory and Legal Challenges: Bristol-Myers Squibb operates in a highly regulated industry and is subject to various legal and regulatory risks. These include pricing pressures, notably from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has selected Eliquis for negotiation. The company also faces risks related to compliance with laws and regulations, with any failure potentially leading to civil or criminal legal proceedings and regulatory sanctions. Past issues have included accusations of deceptive advertising, FDA violations, promoting off-label drug use, and inflated pricing practices, resulting in significant settlements and reputational damage. Additionally, there is a risk of drug recalls, product safety warnings, and litigation related to alleged injuries from using the company's products or anti-competitive tactics. Delays in regulatory approval and commercialization of new products can also negatively impact revenues and earnings.
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The clear emerging threats to Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) are primarily centered around the loss of market exclusivity for its key blockbuster drugs.
Specifically, the ongoing and upcoming expiration of patents for **Revlimid** and, in the near future, **Eliquis**, will allow for the entry of generic and biosimilar competitors. These drugs represent a significant portion of BMY's current revenue. The introduction of lower-cost generic alternatives will directly erode sales and market share for these products, profoundly impacting the company's financial performance. This situation is akin to how new, more accessible alternatives disrupted established markets in the past, such as Netflix challenging Blockbuster's physical rental model with a streaming alternative.
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Addressable Markets for Bristol-Myers Squibb's Main Products
- Revlimid, Pomalyst/Imnovid, Empliciti (Multiple Myeloma): The global multiple myeloma market was valued at approximately USD 27.75 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 49.89 billion by 2034. In 2023, the total multiple myeloma market size in the 7MM (United States, EU4, UK, and Japan) was about USD 21.3 billion, with the United States accounting for nearly USD 14.3 billion. North America held a 46% revenue share of the global multiple myeloma therapeutics market in 2023.
- Eliquis (Stroke/Systemic Embolism in NVAF, DVT/PE): The global venous thromboembolism (VTE) treatment market is projected to grow from USD 10.8 billion in 2024 to nearly USD 16.5 billion by 2030. The U.S. VTE treatment market is expected to expand from approximately USD 3.24 billion in 2024 to around USD 4.58 billion by 2030. The global venous thromboembolism market size was estimated at USD 3.3 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 5.4 billion in 2034.
-
Opdivo (Anti-cancer indications, including Melanoma and Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer): The global Opdivo (nivolumab) market size is projected to grow from USD 7.2 billion in 2023 to approximately USD 14.5 billion by 2032.
- Melanoma: The global melanoma market size was valued at USD 3.9 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 8.9 billion by 2034. The global melanoma therapeutics market size was valued at USD 4.62 billion in 2024, predicted to be USD 5.32 billion in 2025, and worth USD 17.30 billion by 2033. North America accounted for the largest share of the global melanoma therapeutics market.
- Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC): The global non-small cell lung cancer market was estimated at USD 20.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow from USD 22.1 billion in 2025 to USD 53.9 billion by 2034. The global NSCLC therapeutics market size was valued at USD 38.49 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow from USD 43.71 billion in 2026 to USD 74.99 billion by 2034. North America dominated the NSCLC therapeutics market with a 44.55% market share in 2025.
- Orencia (Rheumatoid Arthritis and Psoriatic Arthritis): null
- Sprycel (Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia): The global chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) treatment market was valued at USD 8.59 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 16.33 billion by 2032. North America held a strong lead in the global CML treatment market in 2023, reaching US$ 3.6 billion. The global Sprycel market size was valued at approximately USD 2.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 3.8 billion by 2032.
- Yervoy (Melanoma): Covered under Melanoma market size (see Opdivo section).
- Abraxane (Protein-bound chemotherapy product): The Protein Bound Paclitaxel (Abraxane) Market size was valued at USD 88 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 139.72 billion by 2031. North America is a significant market for Abraxane.
- Reblozyl (Anemia in adult patients with beta thalassemia): null
- Zeposia (Relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis; ulcerative colitis): The Zeposia Market is projected to rise from USD 0.43 billion in 2025 to USD 2.31 billion by 2035. The global Zeposia Market size was USD 296 million in 2023 and is likely to reach USD 1370 million by 2032. The U.S. Zeposia market is expected to dominate due to increasing adoption of innovative treatments for autoimmune diseases.
- Breyanzi (Relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma): null
- Inrebic (Myelofibrosis): null
- Onureg (Acute Myeloid Leukemia - AML): The global acute myeloid leukemia treatment market size was estimated at USD 3.47 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 6.29 billion by 2030. The global acute myeloid leukemia treatment market size is calculated at USD 3.87 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 10.64 billion by 2035. North America dominated the market with a 37.6% revenue share in 2024.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) over the Next 2-3 Years
- Strong Performance of the Growth Portfolio: Bristol-Myers Squibb anticipates continued robust revenue contribution from its "Growth Portfolio," which comprises newer, high-performing products. This portfolio, which accounted for nearly 60% of total revenue in Q4 2025, includes key assets such as Opdivo, Reblozyl, Camzyos, Breyanzi, and Opdualag, all of which demonstrated significant year-over-year sales increases. These products are expected to maintain their growth momentum and become an even larger share of the company's total revenue in the coming years.
- Launch of New Molecular Entities from a Robust Pipeline: The company expects to drive future revenue growth through the introduction of new medicines from its pipeline. Bristol-Myers Squibb has a "data-rich period" ahead, with expectations for multiple pivotal data readouts for new molecular entities (NMEs) in 2026 and the potential to launch more than 10 new medicines by 2030. Key pipeline assets highlighted include iberdomide for multiple myeloma (with its new drug application accepted by the FDA), milvexian (a Factor XIa anticoagulant), and programs within the CELMoD platform.
- Expansion of Existing Products into New Indications and Geographies: Revenue growth is also expected from the approval and uptake of existing successful products in new indications and expanded geographic markets. For example, Opdivo continues to see growth driven by new indications such as MSI-high colorectal cancer and non-small cell lung cancer in the U.S., as well as broader international adoption. Similarly, Reblozyl is expanding its sales through increased demand in various MDS-associated anemia indications.
- Continued Sales Momentum for Eliquis in the Near Term: While facing future loss of exclusivity challenges, Eliquis is projected to experience 10-15% growth in 2026. This strong near-term performance is expected to contribute to revenue before anticipated patent expirations impact sales in major ex-U.S. markets, particularly in 2027.
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Share Repurchases
- In December 2023, Bristol-Myers Squibb authorized an additional $3 billion for share repurchases, bringing the total outstanding authorization to approximately $5 billion.
- The company entered into accelerated share repurchase (ASR) transactions totaling $5 billion in February 2022, as part of a larger $15 billion board-authorized program.
- By early February 2026, Bristol-Myers Squibb completed a long-running share repurchase program, initiated in October 2016, which totaled nearly $30 billion (475,816,819 shares).
Inbound Investments
- In July 2025, Bristol Myers Squibb partnered with Bain Capital to form a new biopharmaceutical company focused on autoimmune diseases, securing a $300 million financing commitment primarily from Bain Capital.
Outbound Investments
- Bristol Myers Squibb acquired Orbital Therapeutics for $1.5 billion in October 2025, enhancing its cell therapy portfolio with next-generation RNA medicines for autoimmune diseases.
- In March 2025, the company acquired its cancer cell therapy partner 2seventy bio for $286 million to fully control ABECMA, a CAR T cell therapy for multiple myeloma.
- In December 2023, Bristol Myers Squibb agreed to acquire Karuna Therapeutics for $14 billion (approximately $12.7 billion net of cash) to obtain its experimental schizophrenia drug, KarXT.
Capital Expenditures
- Bristol-Myers Squibb's capital expenditures averaged $1.172 billion annually from fiscal years 2021 to 2025, reaching a peak of $1.311 billion in December 2025.
- Capital expenditures consistently increased each year from $973 million in 2021 to $1.311 billion in 2025.
- The company announced plans in May 2025 to invest $40 billion in the U.S. over the subsequent five years, focusing on strengthening its presence, advancing radiopharmaceutical production, and leveraging AI/machine learning to accelerate innovation and enhance manufacturing capabilities.
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to BMY.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | QDEL | QuidelOrtho | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | CHE | Chemed | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | -3.0% |
| 07312025 | BMY | Bristol-Myers Squibb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 28.6% | 47.7% | -0.3% |
| 04302024 | BMY | Bristol-Myers Squibb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.7% | 19.9% | -8.8% |
| 10312023 | BMY | Bristol-Myers Squibb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.7% | 7.4% | -20.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 167.65 |
| Mkt Cap | 337.7 |
| Rev LTM | 63,795 |
| Op Inc LTM | 21,100 |
| FCF LTM | 12,602 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 13,173 |
| CFO LTM | 16,642 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 15,692 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 337.7 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 16.1 |
| P/E | 20.6 |
| P/CFO | 18.9 |
| Total Yield | 8.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 31.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 38.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 26.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -29.4% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA220073 | ELIQUIS | apixaban | suspension | 4172025 | -1.1% | -9.5% | 24.7% | 24.7% | 24.7% |
| BLA761381 | OPDIVO QVANTIG | nivolumab | injectable | 12272024 | 5.2% | -17.9% | 0.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| BLA761429 | OPDIVO QVANTIG | nivolumab | injectable | 12272024 | 5.2% | -17.9% | 0.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| NDA216158 | COBENFY | trospium chloride | capsule | 9262024 | 17.0% | 20.1% | -7.8% | 26.6% | 26.6% |
| NDA218213 | AUGTYRO | repotrectinib | capsule | 11152023 | -4.1% | -11.6% | 19.2% | -0.2% | 27.8% |
| NDA216340 | KRAZATI | adagrasib | tablet | 12122022 | -15.7% | -16.6% | -33.7% | -21.9% | -13.5% |
| NDA214958 | SOTYKTU | deucravacitinib | tablet | 9092022 | 13.2% | -4.9% | -10.4% | -24.7% | -2.0% |
| NDA214998 | CAMZYOS | mavacamten | capsule | 4282022 | -2.6% | -2.0% | -10.8% | -37.5% | -10.3% |
| BLA761234 | OPDUALAG | nivolumab | solution | 3182022 | 4.6% | 2.2% | -3.5% | -21.1% | -1.7% |
| NDA214120 | ONUREG | azacitidine | tablet | 9012020 | 3.1% | 2.1% | 11.3% | 20.5% | 20.0% |
| ... | |||||||||
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliquis | 12,206 | 11,789 | 10,762 | 9,168 | 7,929 |
| Opdivo | 9,009 | 8,249 | 7,523 | 6,992 | 7,204 |
| Revlimid | 6,097 | 9,978 | 12,821 | 12,106 | 1,299 |
| Orencia | 3,601 | 3,464 | 3,306 | 3,157 | 2,977 |
| Pomalyst/Imnovid | 3,441 | 3,497 | 3,332 | 3,070 | 322 |
| Yervoy | 2,238 | 2,131 | 2,026 | 1,682 | 1,489 |
| Sprycel | 1,930 | 2,165 | 2,117 | 2,140 | 2,110 |
| Other Growth products | 1,211 | ||||
| Reblozyl | 1,008 | 717 | 551 | 274 | |
| Abraxane | 1,004 | 811 | 1,181 | 1,247 | 166 |
| Other Legacy products | 962 | ||||
| Opdualag | 627 | 252 | |||
| Abecma | 472 | 388 | 164 | ||
| Zeposia | 434 | 250 | 134 | 12 | |
| Breyanzi | 364 | 182 | 87 | ||
| Camzyos | 231 | 24 | |||
| Sotyktu | 170 | 8 | |||
| Augtyro | 1 | 0 | |||
| Cobenfy | 0 | ||||
| Krazati | 0 | ||||
| Inrebic | 85 | 74 | 55 | 5 | |
| Mature and other brands | 2,045 | 1,900 | 2,217 | ||
| Onureg | 124 | 73 | 17 | ||
| Empliciti | 334 | 381 | 357 | ||
| Baraclude | 555 | ||||
| Other Brands | 1,674 | ||||
| Vidaza | 58 | ||||
| Total | 45,006 | 46,159 | 46,385 | 42,518 | 26,145 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $59.08 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 120.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/01/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $58.07 | $49.34 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 1.7% | 19.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.5% | 28.7% |
| Downside Capture | -5.92 | 57.48 |
| Upside Capture | 78.07 | 49.02 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 19.4% | 25.9% |
BMY Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| Up Beta | 2.14 | 1.68 | 1.28 | 0.80 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| Down Beta | -0.93 | -0.34 | -0.31 | -0.21 | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| Up Capture | 68% | 68% | 108% | 63% | 34% | 10% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 21 | 31 | 61 | 128 | 372 |
| Down Capture | -138% | -64% | -61% | -21% | 53% | 66% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 20 | 30 | 62 | 122 | 374 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BMY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMY | 3.8% | 28.6% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.0% | 17.5% | 0.12 | 65.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 25.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | -1.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 41.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.0% | 44.2% | -0.24 | 8.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BMY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMY | 3.6% | 23.6% | 0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.5% | 14.5% | 0.33 | 51.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 20.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 0.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 28.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.4% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 9.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BMY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMY | 2.5% | 25.1% | 0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.1% | 16.5% | 0.50 | 55.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 35.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 2.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 7.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 32.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 7.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/5/2026 | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | 7.1% | 9.1% | 15.4% |
| 7/31/2025 | -5.8% | -2.5% | 2.0% |
| 4/24/2025 | 0.3% | 3.4% | -3.1% |
| 2/6/2025 | -3.8% | -6.0% | 2.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | 5.9% | 5.0% | 12.5% |
| 7/26/2024 | 11.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | -8.5% | -9.5% | -15.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -2.6% | -3.1% |
| Max Positive | 11.4% | 9.1% | 15.4% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -9.5% | -15.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elkins, David V | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 47.33 | 56,000 | 2,650,480 | 7,922,048 | Form |
| 2 | Short, Bartie Wendy | EVP, Corporate Affairs | Direct | Sell | 8052025 | 44.23 | 378 | 16,719 | 224,069 | Form |
| 3 | Hickey, Benjamin | President, RayzeBio Org. | Spouse | Sell | 5132025 | 38.01 | 97 | Form | ||
| 4 | Hirawat, Samit | EVP,Chief Med.Offr.,Drug Dev. | Direct | Buy | 4292025 | 47.58 | 4,250 | 202,215 | 3,973,572 | Form |
BMY Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
HARD_NO: Competitive Moat Broken by Patent Cliff. This is due to the definitive and catastrophic loss of regulatory protection on its two largest products, leading to a structural bear regime.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Turnaround / Deep ValueThe company faces a massive, definite, and near-term structural headwind with the 2026-2028 patent cliff on its two largest products. The entire investment thesis rests on management's ability to execute a strategic pivot, replacing lost revenue with its 'Growth Portfolio' and pipeline. This is a quintessential turnaround scenario focused on strategic execution and balance sheet strength.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis is that the market is underestimating the velocity and durability of BMY's 'Growth Portfolio' to offset the well-understood revenue losses from the Eliquis and Opdivo patent cliffs. This portfolio now accounts for nearly 60% of total revenue and is growing at a robust 16% YoY, driven by strong uptake in key therapeutic areas.
Mechanism:
The company captures value by successfully shifting prescription volume from its declining legacy assets to its new, patented, high-margin products like Reblozyl, Camzyos, and Breyanzi, thereby replacing lost revenue and stabilizing future cash flows at a higher-than-expected level.
Supporting Evidence:
- The 'Growth Portfolio' revenue grew 16% YoY in Q4 2025 and now represents nearly 60% of total company sales.
- Management issued FY26 revenue guidance of $46.0B - $47.5B, significantly above prior analyst consensus of ~$44.2B, indicating confidence in the new portfolio's trajectory.
- Seven pivotal trial readouts are expected in 2026, which could yield new blockbuster drugs, such as Milvexian with >$5B peak sales potential, to further offset legacy declines.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is the imminent and significant loss of market exclusivity for Eliquis (EU: H2 2026, US: 2028) and Opdivo (US: 2028). These two drugs represent a massive portion of current revenue, and their decline due to generic and biosimilar competition creates a structural revenue hole that new products may not fill quickly enough.
Mechanism:
Upon loss of exclusivity, government and commercial payers will aggressively switch to lower-cost generics/biosimilars, leading to a rapid and severe erosion of BMY's branded sales volume and pricing power for these cornerstone products. This is a 'Type 2: Competitive/Share' risk.
Supporting Evidence:
- Management has explicitly guided for a revenue step-down of $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion in 2027 from Eliquis ex-US LOE alone.
- Eliquis and Opdivo have combined annualized sales of approximately $24.8 billion, highlighting the magnitude of the revenue base at risk.
- The company is already proactively cutting Eliquis's list price to mitigate IRA penalties, acknowledging the deflationary pricing environment.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Growth Portfolio Revenue Growth (YoY) | > 15% | This is the primary metric indicating whether the 'Alpha Driver' is functioning. Growth below this level suggests the new products are failing to achieve the escape velocity needed to offset legacy declines. |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Above 69% | Management has guided for gross margin to decline to 69%-70% in 2026. A breach below this guided range would signal that the product mix shift is more dilutive than expected, putting further pressure on EPS. |
| Pivotal Trial Readouts (2026) | Positive results for >$5B peak sales assets | The market needs to see tangible evidence of future blockbuster drugs emerging from the pipeline to believe in a post-2028 recovery. The outcome of these trials is a critical leading indicator for long-term growth. |
Core Investment Debate
The Patent Cliff vs. The Growth Portfolio
BULL VIEW
The Growth Portfolio, now nearly 60% of revenue and growing 16% YoY, is successfully bridging the gap, indicating a healthy operational pivot and strong execution.
CORE TENSION
Can the new 'Growth Portfolio' and pipeline assets generate revenue fast enough to offset the imminent, multi-billion dollar collapse of legacy blockbusters Eliquis and Opdivo?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH
Management guides for an absolute revenue decline in 2026 and a gross margin contraction to 69-70%, directly quantifying that new growth is not offsetting legacy erosion.
BEAR VIEW
The 2026-2028 patent cliff is a structural impairment. Guided revenue declines and margin erosion show the new portfolio's growth is insufficient to prevent an earnings recession.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Watch: Gross Margin falling below the guided 69-70% range and any revision to the Legacy Portfolio's rate of decline. |
April 8, 2026 | FDA PDUFA Decision for Opdivo Combo Watch: Binary outcome: Full FDA approval versus a Complete Response Letter (CRL) for the new Hodgkin lymphoma indication. |
Anytime | FTC Patent Scrutiny Update Watch: Any official FTC communication, warning letter, or lawsuit that specifically names a key BMY drug like Eliquis or Opdivo. |
February 4-6, 2026 | International Stroke Conference Presentation Watch: Presentation of new data for Milvexian, a key pipeline asset intended to help offset the Eliquis patent cliff. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 13, 2025 | Positive Phase 3 Trial Results for Breyanzi Details: Announced positive topline results from a Phase 3 study of CAR-T therapy Breyanzi in a specific type of lymphoma, bolstering a key product in the Growth Portfolio. | Rose significantly by 2.8% $45.38 -> $46.65 |
Sep 22, 2025 | Presentation at Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference Details: Management presented an overview of the company's strategy, emphasizing the growth portfolio's ability to navigate upcoming patent expirations. Market reaction was minimal. | Changed Little (-0.1%) $43.89 -> $43.85 |
Oct 29, 2025 | Stock Hits Multi-Year Low Details: Shares hit their lowest point in several years amid peak pessimism regarding the upcoming patent cliff, just before the positive Q3 earnings report. | Muted (-0.5%) $42.31 -> $42.10 |
Oct 30, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Details: Reported Q3 revenues up 3%, with the Growth Portfolio surging 18%. For the first time, this portfolio represented the majority of revenue, a key strategic milestone. | Flat (1.0%) $45.08 -> $45.53 |
Dec 18, 2025 | Announced Q4 2025 Earnings Date Details: The company announced it would report its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on February 5, 2026. Stock reaction was muted ahead of the actual report. | Modest 1.6% gain $52.70 -> $53.55 |
Feb 5, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY2026 Guidance Details: Reported better-than-expected Q4 results, driven by 16% growth in the 'Growth Portfolio'. However, provided weak 2026 revenue guidance of $46.0B-$47.5B, implying a decline. | Rose significantly by 4.15% $59.52 -> $61.99 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The combination of BEARISH sentiment, LOW forward visibility, and an ERODING regulatory moat outweighs the fair valuation, mandating a conservative position to protect capital.
Diversification Alternatives
HRMY
SECTORUnlike BMY's eroding patent moat, HRMY's core asset (Wakix) has strong patent protection with potential extensions into the 2040s, providing superior long-term visibility.
Core Thesis: A focused play on a growing, single-asset with a durable patent runway in the rare neurological disease space, avoiding the complexity and risks of a massive portfolio transition.
INVA
INDUSTRYOffers exposure to the pharma sector through a royalty-based model, which has a different risk profile than BMY's R&D and commercial execution risk.
Core Thesis: A hybrid model combining stable, durable royalty streams from partners like GSK with a high-growth specialty therapeutics business, offering a diversified revenue base.
How Is The Market Pricing BMY?
Bristol-Myers Squibb is transitioning from a reliance on a few megablockbuster drugs facing patent expiration (Eliquis, Opdivo) to a diversified portfolio of newer, high-growth assets and a 'data-rich' late-stage pipeline, which must replace ~$24B in at-risk revenue.
Filter all news through the lens of the 'patent cliff' revenue replacement race: does this news accelerate or de-risk the transition to the new product portfolio and pipeline?
What will confirm the thesis
Growth portfolio product sales (Reblozyl, Camzyos, Breyanzi) exceeding guidance; positive Phase 3 readouts for the six pivotal trials expected in H2 2026; strategic acquisitions that add near-term revenue-generating assets.
What will damage the thesis
Any negative trial results for key pipeline assets (especially milvexian); faster-than-expected erosion of Eliquis or Opdivo sales; downward revisions to 2026 revenue guidance; pricing pressure from drug negotiation legislation.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Quarterly fluctuations in sales of legacy drugs already facing generic competition (e.g., Revlimid); early-stage (Phase 1/2) clinical trial announcements without clear timelines to market; minor patent litigation news that doesn't impact core loss-of-exclusivity dates.
Repricing Catalyst
Successful execution of the late-stage pipeline in H2 2026. Management has explicitly flagged 2026 as a 'data-rich' year with six pivotal registrational readouts. Positive data from these trials is the primary catalyst to convince the market that BMY can successfully navigate the upcoming patent cliff and replace lost revenues, potentially leading to a re-rating of its valuation multiple.
What BMY Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release, Feb 5, 2026
Cardiovascular Drugs (Eliquis)
$14.4B TTM (29.9% of Total) · 71.9% MarginWhat It Is
Eliquis (apixaban), an oral anticoagulant for reducing the risk of stroke and systemic embolism.
Who Pays & How
Major US drug wholesalers (McKesson, AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health) and international health systems pay for Eliquis. It is a market-leading drug with strong clinical data, but faces loss of exclusivity starting in 2027-2028 which will cause rapid price and volume erosion.
Per-unit sale to wholesalers and distributors.
Competition
Generic apixaban manufacturers (post-patent cliff)
Identical molecule at a fraction of the cost.
Current market leadership and brand recognition. The primary moat is patent protection, which is set to expire.
Oncology (Opdivo & Immuno-Oncology Franchise)
$10.1B TTM (20.8% of Total) · 71.9% MarginWhat It Is
Opdivo (nivolumab), Yervoy (ipilimumab), Opdualag (nivolumab/relatlimab). These are immuno-oncology (I-O) therapies that enable the body's immune system to fight cancer.
Who Pays & How
Global healthcare systems pay for these high-cost biologic therapies due to significant survival benefits in multiple cancer types, including melanoma and lung cancer.
Per-vial sale for infusion.
Competition
Merck - Keytruda (pembrolizumab)
Keytruda is the dominant PD-1 inhibitor with significantly higher sales ($31.7B in 2025) and a broader range of approved first-line indications. [34]
Opdivo has a strong position in specific cancer types and combinations (e.g., with Yervoy). The moat is its clinical data in approved indications and patent protection, which expires around 2028.
New Growth Portfolio
$8.9B TTM (18.5% of Total) · 71.9% MarginWhat It Is
Reblozyl (anemia), Breyanzi (CAR-T cell therapy), Camzyos (heart disease), Opdualag (melanoma), Sotyktu (psoriasis), Zeposia (multiple sclerosis).
Who Pays & How
Payers and health systems for providing new or improved treatment options in various specialty diseases, often with high unmet need.
Per-unit sales or per-treatment for cell therapies.
Competition
Varies by product (e.g., other pharma companies with products in immunology, cardiology, and cell therapy).
Competitors may have established drugs in the same therapeutic areas.
Patent protection, unique mechanisms of action, and strong clinical data for newly launched products.
Legacy & Established Brands
$13.8B TTM (28.6% of Total) · 71.9% MarginWhat It Is
Revlimid (multiple myeloma), Pomalyst (multiple myeloma), Sprycel (leukemia), Orencia (autoimmune).
Who Pays & How
These were once core, high-priced drugs. Payers are now rapidly switching to much cheaper generic alternatives as patents expire, causing revenue to decline sharply.
Per-unit sale to wholesalers.
Competition
Generic manufacturers (e.g., Teva, Natco for Revlimid)
Massively lower price for a bioequivalent product.
None remains after loss of exclusivity.
BMY Evolution: Price Return by Era
2010–2018 · The I-O & Eliquis Ascendancy
Pioneering Immuno-Oncology and Cardiovascular Leadership
This era was defined by the successful development and commercialization of two transformative drugs: the immuno-oncology agent Opdivo and the novel anticoagulant Eliquis. These products became megablockbusters, establishing BMY as a leader in both oncology and cardiovascular medicine and driving significant growth.
2019–2024 · The Celgene Gamble
A $74 Billion Bet on Oncology and Hematology -25% (Approximate peak-to-trough decline)
BMY executed one of the largest pharmaceutical mergers in history, acquiring Celgene for $74 billion. This dramatically deepened its oncology and hematology pipeline, bringing in blockbuster drugs like Revlimid and Pomalyst. The era was focused on integrating the two companies, paying down debt, and managing the near-term patent expiration of Revlimid.
2025–Present · Navigating the Patent Cliff
The Great Revenue Replacement Race Volatile with upward trend in early 2026
With Revlimid sales rapidly declining to generic competition, the company's entire focus shifts to the upcoming, and much larger, patent expirations for Eliquis and Opdivo. This era is defined by the performance of the 'New Product Portfolio' and the success or failure of a data-rich late-stage pipeline, which together must replace over $24 billion in annual revenue.
Market Appears To Be Cautiously Supportive
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum show mild distribution. The selling pressure is present but not overwhelming. Earnings history is supportive. The reaction and drift are both positive, and the market is accepting the narrative.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+2
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
5 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Trending Up · Golden Cross
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2
Momentum
Pausing
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3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Mild Outperformance
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4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Mild Accumulation
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5
Volatility
Normal
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6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Falling
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7
Earnings Reaction History
Consistent Reward
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
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External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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