Bullish (BLSH)
Market Price (2/4/2026): $27.61 | Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Bullish (BLSH)
Market Price (2/4/2026): $27.61Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -100%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 672x |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -58% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Cryptocurrency Exchanges, and Digital Asset Custody. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.8% | |
| Key risksBLSH key risks include [1] an unpredictable earnings model heavily reliant on fluctuating fair value gains from its crypto holdings rather than stable operational revenues, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -58% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Cryptocurrency Exchanges, and Digital Asset Custody. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -100%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 672x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.8% |
| Key risksBLSH key risks include [1] an unpredictable earnings model heavily reliant on fluctuating fair value gains from its crypto holdings rather than stable operational revenues, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Anticipation of Negative Q4 2025 Earnings. Bullish announced that its Q4 2025 financial results would be released on February 5, 2026, leading to significant investor caution and heightened market anxiety due to expectations of persistent corporate losses and underperforming earnings. Even with strong sequential growth in trading volume, the stock displayed warning signs ahead of this earnings report.
2. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Cuts. Several prominent financial institutions revised their outlook on Bullish, contributing to downward pressure on the stock. Rosenblatt Securities reduced its price target from $55 to $52, while Citi lowered its target from $77 to $67. Additionally, Canaccord Genuity Group cut its price target from $68 to $50, and Wall Street Zen downgraded Bullish from a "hold" to a "sell" rating. A JPMorgan price target reduction to $42 was also cited as a factor in a 10-day losing streak experienced by the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -45.3% change in BLSH stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.57 | 27.64 | -45.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 146 | 146 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLSH | -45.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 45.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | -5.5% | 43.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLSH | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 34.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 8.3% | 36.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLSH | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 34.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 23.7% | 36.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLSH | ||
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 34.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 113.3% | 36.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BLSH Return | - | - | - | - | -44% | -24% | -58% |
| Peers Return | -8% | -55% | 119% | 43% | 33% | -0% | 73% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 86% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BLSH Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 20% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 38% | 60% | 47% | 57% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BLSH Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -46% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -59% | -12% | -30% | -25% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: COIN, CME, ICE, BKKT, HOOD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
BLSH has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,183 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to COIN, CME, ICE, BKKT, HOOD
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Bullish (BLSH)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Bullish (BLSH):
- The institutional-grade Coinbase.
- The Nasdaq of cryptocurrency exchanges.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Cryptocurrency Spot Trading: Provides a platform for users to buy and sell a variety of digital assets at real-time market prices.
- Deep Liquidity Access: Offers robust order books and liquidity, facilitating efficient execution of large-volume cryptocurrency trades.
- Secure Digital Asset Custody: Ensures the secure storage and protection of clients' cryptocurrency holdings on the exchange.
- Institutional Trading Solutions: Delivers tailored tools, API access, and dedicated support for institutional investors engaging in large-scale crypto trading.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Bullish (BLSH) operates as a regulated cryptocurrency exchange primarily catering to institutional investors and professional traders, rather than the general retail public.
Due to the nature of a cryptocurrency exchange's business model, where customers are participants on a trading platform, specific names of "major customer companies" are not publicly disclosed by Bullish (or any other exchange) for reasons of client confidentiality and competitive strategy. Exchanges generate revenue from trading fees, not from selling a direct product or service to a named corporate client in the traditional B2B sense.
However, Bullish's services are designed for and actively marketed towards the following categories of institutional and professional participants:
- Hedge Funds and Asset Management Firms: These are large financial institutions that manage substantial capital for clients and require compliant, secure, and efficient venues for trading digital assets. They leverage Bullish for its liquidity, regulatory compliance, and institutional-grade trading tools.
- Proprietary Trading Firms and Market Makers: These are professional trading operations focused on providing liquidity, engaging in arbitrage, and executing high-frequency trading strategies within the cryptocurrency markets. They utilize Bullish for its robust infrastructure, low-latency execution, and deep order books.
- Family Offices and High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs): These entities or individuals with significant assets seek robust and secure platforms to invest in and trade digital assets. They often require institutional-grade features, bespoke services, advanced execution capabilities, and strong regulatory adherence that Bullish aims to provide.
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```htmlTom Farley, Chief Executive Officer
Tom Farley serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Bullish, where he is responsible for the company's strategic direction. Prior to Bullish, he was the CEO, President, and Chairman of Far Peak Acquisition Corporation and Far Point Acquisition Corporation. He also holds the position of Chairman at Global Blue Group Holding AG (NYSE: GB). Farley has extensive executive leadership experience in the finance industry, including serving as President of the NYSE Group of Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) from 2014 to 2018, where he led all NYSE operations and managed a diverse range of equity and equity options exchanges. He spearheaded the NYSE through a significant strategic and operational transition, leading to tripled profits, doubled pre-acquisition operating margin, and modernization of technology. Before joining ICE, he was President of SunGard Kiodex, after serving as its CFO and COO. In 2013, on behalf of the NYSE, Farley invested $10 million in Coinbase. Bullish itself was initially planned to go public through a SPAC merger with Farley's Far Peak Acquisition Corp., a deal that was later canceled, before Bullish eventually went public via an IPO.
David Bonanno, Chief Financial Officer
David Bonanno is the Chief Financial Officer of Bullish, responsible for integrating the company's strategic vision to accelerate growth. Before becoming CFO of Bullish, he served as CFO and a Director of Far Peak Acquisition Corp and Far Point Acquisition Corp. He is also a Director of Sculptor Capital Management (NYSE: SCU). Bonanno brings many years of investment management experience, including a twelve-year tenure as a Managing Director at Third Point LLC, a New York-based investment firm. At Third Point, he was responsible for analyzing and executing public and private investment opportunities across various industries such as financial technology, financial services, telecommunications, energy, and real estate. He has held senior leadership roles at companies that have collectively issued over $4 billion in equity and over $30 billion in debt through public and private capital markets. Most recently, he served as CFO of Far Point Acquisition Corporation before joining Bullish.
Chris Tyrer, President of Bullish Exchange
Chris Tyrer leads Bullish's institutional strategy. He is responsible for the overall strategy and growth of the Bullish Exchange.
George Gaffney, Chief Operating Officer
George Gaffney leads global operations for Bullish and is responsible for the exchange's operations and technology infrastructure, ensuring the platform is stable, fast, and secure. He joined Bullish in 2021 as Head of Exchange Platform Technology and Operations. Prior to that, George was Managing Director, Global Head of Platform Services, and Head of Global Markets Technology for Hong Kong at Macquarie Group. He also held roles at Thomson Reuters Japan, specializing in market data technology, bringing over two decades of experience in capital markets technology and operations.
Mothusi Majinda, Chief Technology Officer
Mothusi Majinda is responsible for all development at Bullish, including trading, custody, and blockchain engineering. He joined the financial services division in 2019 to help grow the engineering team for the exchange product and has held several roles at Bullish across architecture and engineering. Majinda has a decade of experience working in traditional finance, where he built equities and derivatives trading systems for companies like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Credit Suisse.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Bullish (BLSH) are primarily driven by the inherent nature of the cryptocurrency industry and its evolving regulatory landscape.
- Regulatory Uncertainty and Policy Changes: The cryptocurrency industry is highly sensitive to regulatory changes, particularly in the United States, where new rules could significantly alter the economic landscape for crypto firms. Bullish faces ongoing risks from delays in regulatory clarity, such as the CLARITY Act and the New York BitLicense framework, which could restrict its growth potential and operational flexibility. Furthermore, less permissive stances on digital asset businesses in regions like mainland China could necessitate operational relocation, leading to disruptions and increased costs.
- Market Volatility and Correlation with Crypto Market Cycles: Bullish's business performance is deeply intertwined with the volatile cycles of the broader cryptocurrency market. Declines in major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum typically lead to a reduction in exchange volumes. The company's profitability has historically been heavily influenced by fluctuating fair value gains on its crypto holdings rather than stable, recurring operational revenues, resulting in unpredictable earnings. This inherent market volatility makes revenue streams inconsistent and difficult to forecast.
- Intensifying Competition and Valuation Concerns: Bullish operates in a highly competitive environment, facing significant rivals such as Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken. This intense competition in the digital asset exchange space poses a challenge to Bullish's ability to expand its market share and sustain profitability. Additionally, analysts have raised concerns about Bullish's high valuation, noting a 110x 2026 EBITDA multiple, which is double the industry average and rests on speculative assumptions regarding Bitcoin stabilization and regulatory clarity that are not yet proven. The company's initial IPO valuation also saw a significant reduction from prior expectations, highlighting underlying skepticism about its future growth prospects.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Bullish (BLSH) operates in two primary markets: institutional digital asset trading and crypto information services through its subsidiary, CoinDesk.
Institutional Digital Asset Trading
The global institutional crypto trading market size reached approximately USD 95.2 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow significantly, with expectations to reach USD 312.5 billion by 2033, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.6% from 2025 to 2033.
More broadly, the global Institutional Digital Asset Investment Market, which includes cryptocurrencies, tokenized securities, DeFi products, stablecoins, and blockchain infrastructure funds, was valued at approximately USD 1.26 trillion in 2024. This market is projected to expand to approximately USD 5.8 trillion by 2034, with a strong CAGR of nearly 16.4%. North America is a leading region in this market, accounting for about 39% of the global revenue in 2024.
The global crypto trading platforms market, which encompasses Bullish Exchange's services, was valued at approximately USD 60.40 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach around USD 693.86 billion by the end of 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of approximately 27.65% from 2025 to 2034. North America significantly influenced this market in 2021 and is anticipated to continue generating the highest revenues.
Crypto Information Services (CoinDesk)
The global digital asset management (DAM) market, which includes services such as those offered by CoinDesk (indices, data, and insights), was valued at USD 7.68 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 27.18 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 17.11% during this period. North America held a significant share of this market, dominating with 39.39% in 2023.
Another report estimates the global digital asset management market size was valued at USD 4.59 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 16.18 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 17.0%.
Specifically, the global Bitcoin information service market is expected to grow with a CAGR of 11.8% from 2025 to 2031, driven by increasing demand for market data and analytics, regulatory compliance, and growing institutional involvement.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Bullish (BLSH) is anticipated to experience significant revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:- Expanded Regulatory Footprint and Market Entry: Bullish secured the New York DFS BitLicense in September 2025, enabling its entry into the U.S. market in Q4 2025. This, coupled with its MiCA license uplift in the EU and Hong Kong SFC licenses, establishes a truly global regulatory presence, which is expected to unlock substantial new market opportunities.
- Growth in Subscription, Services, and Other (SS&O) Revenue: The company has demonstrated strong performance in its Subscription, Services, and Other revenue segment, with a 61.4% sequential increase and 27.4% year-over-year growth reported in Q2 2025. Management emphasizes ongoing investments in these diversified revenue streams, including CoinDesk Indices and CoinDesk Data, anticipating continued momentum and growth in this area.
- Launch of New Products and Services: Bullish is set to launch new offerings, notably a full options trading platform in Q4 2025, following a successful beta phase. This expansion into new product categories is expected to introduce new revenue streams and serve as a significant growth catalyst for the company.
- Increased Institutional Adoption of Digital Assets and Trading Volumes: As an institutionally focused digital asset platform, Bullish's future revenue is closely tied to the broader institutional adoption of stablecoins, digital assets, and blockchain technology. Despite lower market-wide trading volumes in Q2 2025 due to low volatility, the company's Q3 guidance projects an increase in trading volume, and analysts forecast Bullish's overall revenue growth to outpace the U.S. market.
- Strategic Partnerships and Market Reach Expansion: Bullish is actively pursuing strategic partnerships, such as its collaboration with Deutsche Bank to deliver seamless fiat integration for institutional crypto trading. Furthermore, the company aims to expand its market reach, particularly in Asia, to capitalize on increasing consumer demands and digital transformation, which is expected to contribute to future revenue growth.
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Share Issuance
- Bullish (BLSH) went public on August 13, 2025, through an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the New York Stock Exchange.
- The company sold 30 million ordinary shares at an IPO price of $37 per share, raising approximately $1.1 billion.
- Underwriters were granted a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 4.5 million ordinary shares at the IPO price.
Inbound Investments
- BlackRock and Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management indicated interest in purchasing up to $200 million worth of shares at the IPO price.
- Cathie Wood's ARK Invest continued to acquire Bullish shares post-IPO, including a purchase of approximately 238,000 shares valued at about $12 million in early November 2025.
- Bullish was established in 2020 with investments from backers such as Peter Thiel's Founders Fund and Thiel Capital, as well as Nomura and others.
Outbound Investments
- Bullish acquired CoinDesk in 2023, which expanded its product offerings to include trusted insights, news, data, indices, and analysis for the digital assets industry.
Capital Expenditures
- Proceeds from the IPO are intended for general corporate and working capital purposes, including funding potential future acquisitions.
- As a high-growth company, Bullish is reinvesting all available capital directly into growth initiatives for expansion.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| BLSH Stock Falls -26% With A 10-day Losing Spree On JPMorgan Target Cut | 02/03/2026 | |
| BLSH Stock Falls -23% With A 9-day Losing Spree On JP Morgan PT Cut | 01/31/2026 | |
| BLSH Stock Falls -16% With A 8-day Losing Spree On Analyst Downgrade | 01/30/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| BLSH Stock Falls -23% In 9-Day Spree On JPMorgan Target Cut | 01/31/2026 | |
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 01/27/2026 | |
| Bullish Stock: Buy The Dip? | 08/19/2025 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 125.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 62.3 |
| Rev LTM | 7,035 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,087 |
| FCF LTM | 722 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,219 |
| CFO LTM | 750 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,260 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 46.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 29.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 33.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 62.3 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| P/EBIT | 15.3 |
| P/E | 21.3 |
| P/CFO | 45.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -38.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 71.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -44.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -24.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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