Bakkt (BKKT)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $13.95 | Market Cap: $181.6 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Bakkt (BKKT)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $13.95Market Cap: $181.6 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -120%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -76 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.9% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 105% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 643% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -27% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 160% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 105% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -120%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -76 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.9% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 643% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -27% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 160% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BKKT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Bakkt (BKKT) has experienced significant fluctuations in its stock price, with key movements driven by strategic shifts, financial performance, and market conditions. While pinpointing an exact 59.6% increase within the specific future timeframe of August 31, 2025, to December 8, 2025, is not directly available, an analysis of the most recent available information up to late 2025 highlights several factors that have influenced significant upward movements in Bakkt's stock.
1. Significant Revenue Growth and Increased Crypto Trading Volume in Q4 2024. In its fourth quarter 2024 results, announced on March 20, 2025, Bakkt reported a substantial increase in revenue to $1.79 billion, marking a 737.9% year-over-year surge. This growth was primarily fueled by a 778% year-over-year increase in notional crypto trading volume, reaching $1.78 billion. This strong financial performance likely contributed to investor confidence and a notable stock jump of 33.1% following the announcement.
2. Strategic Leadership Changes and Partnerships. Concurrent with its strong Q4 2024 results, Bakkt announced Akshay Naheta would join as co-CEO alongside Andy Main. Additionally, the company entered into a strategic partnership with Distributed Technologies Research to integrate stablecoin payment technology. These developments signaled new leadership and strategic initiatives aimed at expanding Bakkt's offerings and market presence, which can positively influence stock performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BKKT Return | - | -16% | -86% | 87% | -56% | -37% | -94% |
| Peers Return | 9% | 6% | -31% | 39% | -9% | 4% | 4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BKKT Win Rate | 100% | 42% | 25% | 50% | 25% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 12% | 27% | 20% | 38% | 33% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BKKT Max Drawdown | - | -20% | -86% | -46% | -89% | -72% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | 0% | -1% | -34% | -10% | -22% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, CHOW, NTSK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BKKT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 6530.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -12.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 148 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, CHOW, NTSK
In The Past
Bakkt's stock fell -98.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/29/2021. A -98.5% loss requires a 6530.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Bakkt Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | |
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Bakkt Stock with 107% Return (vs. -19% YTD) [9/24/2025] | Notification |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BKKT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.7% | 14.7% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.7% | 14.7% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Bakkt
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.4 |
| Rev LTM | 2,694 |
| Op Inc LTM | -61 |
| FCF LTM | 163 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 112 |
| CFO LTM | 188 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 130 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 31.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -2.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.4 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | -11.1 |
| P/E | 13.1 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | -3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 27.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -27.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 11.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -39.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -55.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | -14.3% | -21.4% | |
| 7/28/2025 | -41.8% | -45.6% | -48.2% |
| 3/19/2025 | 13.0% | 17.5% | -8.6% |
| 11/14/2024 | -6.5% | 156.8% | 167.9% |
| 8/14/2024 | -20.6% | -11.9% | -25.9% |
| 5/15/2024 | -13.9% | 25.6% | 53.2% |
| 2/29/2024 | -43.1% | -36.1% | -54.9% |
| 3/9/2023 | -10.7% | -2.5% | 41.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 8.2% | 54.6% | 47.1% |
| Median Negative | -12.3% | -17.4% | -25.9% |
| Max Positive | 13.0% | 156.8% | 167.9% |
| Max Negative | -43.1% | -45.6% | -54.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3252024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |