Bank of New York Mellon (BK)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $130.0 | Market Cap: $90.8 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Bank of New York Mellon (BK)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $130.0Market Cap: $90.8 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 5.6% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -156% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 6.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.2 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Asset Custody, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.7%, Dist 3Y High is -3.7% | Key risksBK key risks include [1] litigation and legal liabilities from regulatory non-compliance, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 5.6% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -156% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, CFO LTM is 6.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.2 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Asset Custody, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.7%, Dist 3Y High is -3.7% |
| Key risksBK key risks include [1] litigation and legal liabilities from regulatory non-compliance, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Exceptional First Quarter 2026 Earnings Performance and Positive Outlook.
Bank of New York Mellon (BK) reported record first-quarter 2026 revenue of $5.41 billion, marking a 13% increase year-over-year, and surpassing analyst estimates of approximately $5.34 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2026 reached $2.25, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.99 by $0.26. This strong performance was driven by robust growth across key business segments, including a 17% rise in Securities Services revenue to $2.68 billion and an 11% increase in Market and Wealth Services revenue to $1.89 billion. The company also delivered a substantial 18% year-over-year increase in Net Interest Income.
2. Robust Capital Management and Enhanced Shareholder Returns.
BNY Mellon demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder value by returning $1.4 billion to shareholders in the first quarter of 2026. Additionally, the company authorized a new $10 billion share repurchase program, signaling confidence in its financial strength and future profitability. This proactive approach to capital management, alongside a solid Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 11%, supported investor confidence.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.9% change in BK stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 115.12 | 132.27 | 14.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,413 | 19,759 | 1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.0% | 28.1% | 4.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.5 | 16.6 | 7.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 706 | 698 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BK | 14.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | 50.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -4.7% | 63.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.0% change in BK stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 107.52 | 132.27 | 23.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,970 | 19,759 | 4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.3% | 28.1% | 7.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.4 | 16.6 | 7.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 715 | 698 | 2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BK | 23.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | 53.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | -2.8% | 65.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 61.7% change in BK stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 81.82 | 132.27 | 61.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,258 | 19,759 | 8.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.8% | 28.1% | 13.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.1 | 16.6 | 26.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 727 | 698 | 4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 61.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BK | 61.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.3% | 70.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 5.8% | 77.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 217.6% change in BK stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 77.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.65 | 132.27 | 217.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 16,149 | 19,759 | 22.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.8% | 28.1% | 77.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.2 | 16.6 | 25.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 812 | 698 | 16.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 217.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BK | 217.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.5% | 60.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 69.5% | 73.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BK Return | 41% | -19% | 19% | 52% | 54% | 16% | 267% |
| Peers Return | 39% | -11% | 10% | 31% | 32% | 3% | 141% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 90% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BK Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 58% | 83% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 48% | 48% | 65% | 67% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BK Max Drawdown | -6% | -34% | -11% | -0% | -4% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -32% | -19% | -7% | -16% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JPM, MS, SCHW, BLK, STT. See BK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 639 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 409 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 785 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 176.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3,021 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to JPM, MS, SCHW, BLK, STT
In The Past
Bank of New York Mellon's stock fell -41.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2022. A -41.4% loss requires a 70.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Bank of New York Mellon (BK)
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Bank of New York Mellon:
- It's like the Amazon Web Services (AWS) for the financial industry, providing the essential back-office infrastructure for banks, asset managers, and corporations.
- Think of it as the UPS or FedEx for financial assets and data – securely holding, moving, and processing trillions in securities and information for institutions globally.
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- Custody and Asset Servicing: Safekeeping of financial assets, fund accounting, transfer agency, and middle-office solutions for institutional investors and investment funds.
- Investment Management: Providing a range of investment strategies, products, and portfolio management for institutional clients and wealthy individuals.
- Wealth Management: Comprehensive services for high net-worth individuals, including private banking, wealth planning, and investment solutions.
- Clearing and Collateral Management: Facilitating the settlement of transactions and managing collateral for various financial market participants.
- Cash Management and Payments: Integrated solutions for payments, foreign exchange, liquidity management, and trade finance for corporations and financial institutions.
- Prime Brokerage: Offering a suite of services, including trading, financing, and securities lending, for hedge funds and other institutional clients.
- Fiduciary and Issuer Services: Acting as trustee, paying agent, or escrow agent, and providing support services for issuers of debt and other securities.
- Data and Technology Solutions: Delivering technology platforms and enterprise data management services to support clients' financial operations and data needs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Bank of New York Mellon (symbol: BK) primarily sells its financial products and services to other companies and institutional clients.
Based on the provided company description, its major customer categories include:
- Central banks and sovereigns
- Financial institutions
- Asset managers
- Insurance companies
- Corporations
- Local authorities
- Family offices
While the company also serves high net-worth individuals, its primary customer base, especially for its Securities Services and Market and Wealth Services segments, consists of the aforementioned institutional and corporate entities.
Specific names of individual customer companies or their public symbols are not disclosed in the provided background information.
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- Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)
- London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG)
- S&P Global (SPGI)
- Microsoft (MSFT)
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Robin Vince, Chief Executive Officer
Robin Vince was appointed Chief Executive Officer of BNY Mellon in September 2022, and Chairman of the Board effective September 2025. He joined BNY Mellon in October 2020 as Vice Chair and CEO of Global Market Infrastructure, where he oversaw businesses including Clearance and Collateral Management, Treasury Services, Markets and Execution Services, and Pershing. Prior to joining BNY Mellon, Mr. Vince spent 26 years at Goldman Sachs, holding numerous leadership roles such as Chief Risk Officer, Treasurer, Head of Operations, Head of Global Money Markets, Chief Operating Officer of the EMEA region, and CEO of Goldman Sachs International Bank. He joined Goldman Sachs in 1994 and was named a managing director in 2002 and partner in 2006.
Dermot McDonogh, Chief Financial Officer
Dermot McDonogh was appointed Chief Financial Officer of BNY Mellon, effective February 1, 2023, joining the company on November 1, 2022. Before his tenure at BNY Mellon, Mr. McDonogh had a career spanning over 25 years at Goldman Sachs. His roles at Goldman Sachs included Chief Operating Officer for the EMEA region and Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs International Bank. He began his career at Goldman Sachs in 1994 as a product controller.
Catherine Keating, CEO of BNY Mellon Wealth Management and Investor Solutions
Catherine Keating serves as the CEO of BNY Mellon Wealth Management and Investor Solutions divisions and is a member of the BNY Mellon Executive Committee. Before joining BNY Mellon, Ms. Keating was the Chief Executive Officer of Commonfund. Prior to Commonfund, she held various senior positions at J.P. Morgan over two decades, including Head of Investment Management Americas and CEO of the U.S. Private Bank.
Hanneke Smits, CEO of BNY Mellon Investment Management
Hanneke Smits is the CEO of BNY Mellon Investment Management and a member of BNY Mellon's Executive Committee. Previously, she served as CEO of Newton Investment Management, a BNY Mellon Investment Management firm, from 2016 to 2020. Before her time at Newton, Ms. Smits was on the Executive Committee at private equity firm Adams Street Partners from 2001 to 2014, serving as Chief Investment Officer from 2008 to 2014. She joined Adams Street in 1997 to develop its global investment capabilities. She also worked as an investment manager at Pantheon Ventures.
Jose Minaya, Global Head of BNY Investments and Wealth
Jose Minaya serves as the Senior Executive Vice President and Global Head of BNY Investments and Wealth. He is expected to become the new head of BNY Investments and BNY Wealth following the retirement of Hanneke Smits at the end of 2024.
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Here are the key risks to The Bank of New York Mellon (BK):- Operational, Technological, and Cybersecurity Risks: Given its vast global network and reliance on technology for its core financial products and services, Bank of New York Mellon is exposed to significant operational complexities. Errors or delays in processing transactions, as well as the constant threat of cybersecurity incidents, could materially impact its business, reputation, and client trust.
- Regulatory and Compliance Burdens: As a global financial institution, Bank of New York Mellon is subject to extensive and evolving regulations. These regulatory requirements can necessitate changes in business operations, impose significant compliance costs, and potentially lead to legal challenges, thereby impacting profitability and strategic flexibility.
- Market Volatility and Economic Downturns: The company's revenue largely stems from fee-based services tied to the value of assets under custody and administration. Consequently, a prolonged bear market, significant downturns in global equity and bond markets, or broader economic volatility could lead to a reduction in asset values and transaction volumes, directly impacting Bank of New York Mellon's revenues and overall financial performance.
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The clear emerging threat to Bank of New York Mellon is the continued development and adoption of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) and blockchain-based finance across capital markets. As these technologies mature, they have the potential to fundamentally re-architect how assets are custodied, cleared, settled, and transferred. This could disintermediate many of BNY Mellon's traditional intermediary roles in securities services, clearing, and trust functions by enabling more direct, efficient, and transparent peer-to-peer transactions and record-keeping without the need for multiple layers of financial intermediaries.
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Bank of New York Mellon (symbol: BK) operates in several large addressable markets globally for its diverse financial products and services.
Securities Services
- The global custody services market was valued at approximately $45.19 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $48.84 billion in 2025, with an expected growth to $69.31 billion by 2029. Another estimate places the global custody services market size at $34,512.2 million in 2024.
- The global market for clearing houses and settlements was valued at approximately $11.61 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to $19.01 billion by 2033. Other estimates indicate the market was around $12.45 billion in 2025, projected to reach $18.85 billion by 2031.
- The global trust and corporate service market was valued at approximately $12.29 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $13.14 billion in 2025, reaching $22.41 billion by 2033. Another report valued this market at US$13.86 billion in 2024, expecting it to surpass US$20.05 billion by 2033.
Market and Wealth Services
- The global payments market was valued at $716.3 billion in 2024, with projections to reach $1.11 trillion in 2029 and $1.77 trillion in 2034. The overall global payments market is valued at $2.6 trillion based on a five-year historical analysis.
- For cross-border payments, the total addressable market (TAM), representing the value of payments, was $208 trillion globally in 2025. The global B2B payments market size was valued at USD 97.88 trillion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 282.48 trillion by 2034.
- Global prime brokerage equity finance revenues are projected to reach $37 billion in 2025. In 2020, prime brokers were expected to generate over $30 billion in revenues.
Investment and Wealth Management
- The global wealth management market reached a value of nearly $1.8 trillion in 2023 and is expected to grow to $2.5 trillion by 2028 and $3.5 trillion by 2033. Another source valued the global wealth management market at approximately $1636.83 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach $4893.17 billion by 2034.
- The global asset management market size was estimated at $458.02 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $3,677.39 billion by 2030. Other estimates for the global asset management market size include $432.77 billion in 2025, projected to grow to $1,122.04 billion by 2034, and $927.61 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to $15,321.62 billion by 2035. The global asset management industry's assets under management (AuM) grew to a record-breaking $128 trillion in 2024.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) over the next 2-3 years:- Net Interest Income (NII) Growth: Bank of New York Mellon anticipates continued growth in its net interest income, primarily driven by the strategic reinvestment of maturing investment securities at higher yields and overall balance sheet expansion. The company projected NII growth to be in the high-single-digit percentage range for the full year 2025 and "a little bit ahead of 5%" for 2026.
- Fee Revenue Expansion: The company expects fee revenue to grow, propelled by net new business, increased market values, and higher client activity, particularly within investment services. Investment services fees saw an 8% increase in 2025, and fee revenue is projected to be "a little bit lower than 5%" for 2026.
- Digital Asset Custody and Private Markets Expansion: BNY Mellon is strategically investing in technology-forward sectors to enhance its digital asset custody platform, exemplified by the late 2024 acquisition of Archer. Additionally, the company is broadening its focus into private markets, recognizing growing investor interest in these asset classes.
- Organic Growth and New Business Wins: Revenue growth is expected to come from organic initiatives, including significant client inflows, higher market values, and increased client activity across its various business segments. The company reported $51 billion in net new assets in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating healthy growth from both new and existing clients.
- Technology and AI Platform Adoption: Strategic investments in technology and advances in AI, such as through its Eliza platform and collaborations with Google Cloud and OpenAI, are expected to drive efficiency and new service offerings, contributing to future revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- The Bank of New York Mellon announced a new share repurchase program worth $6 billion in April 2024.
- As of December 31, 2024, approximately $5.33 billion remained available for repurchase under this authorization.
- The company distributed about $3.1 billion through share repurchases in 2024. From October 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, the company repurchased $1 billion worth of shares. By January 13, 2026, the company had completed the repurchase of 44,905,818 shares, totaling $4.15797 billion, under the April 2024 buyback plan.
Share Issuance
- The number of shares outstanding for Bank of New York Mellon has generally declined over the past several years, indicating a net reduction through repurchases rather than significant common share issuances.
Inbound Investments
- Norges Bank initiated a stake of approximately $1.08 billion in Bank of New York Mellon.
Outbound Investments
- In 2024, the company acquired Archer and announced plans to launch Alts Bridge.
- In 2021, Bank of New York Mellon, through its subsidiary Pershing, acquired Optimal Asset Management.
- The company also made an investment in the crypto exchange Talos.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $1,215 million in 2021, $1,346 million in 2022, $1,220 million in 2023, $1,469 million in 2024, and $1,553 million in 2025.
- In Q4 2025, the company invested $436.0 million in capital expenditures.
- The primary focus of these expenditures includes funding long-term assets, infrastructure, and upgrading operations with updated technology and automation.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| 03312026 | HBAN | Huntington Bancshares | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | NP | Neptune Insurance | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03202026 | MKTX | MarketAxess | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.7% |
| 03202026 | RYAN | Ryan Specialty | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -2.7% | -2.7% | -8.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 168.39 |
| Mkt Cap | 161.3 |
| Rev LTM | 24,068 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,909 |
| FCF LTM | -94 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -617 |
| CFO LTM | 643 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 524 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 32.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 35.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -1.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -5.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 161.3 |
| P/S | 4.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 20.4 |
| P/EBIT | 19.6 |
| P/E | 17.0 |
| P/CFO | 4.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.0% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 46.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 128.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 18.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 54.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $132.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 92.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/03/1973 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $122.09 | $112.25 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 8.3% | 17.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.0% | 19.6% |
| Downside Capture | 0.65 | 0.39 |
| Upside Capture | 132.55 | 109.20 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 57.1% | 52.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.50 | 1.16 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.86 |
| Up Beta | -0.23 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 0.87 | 0.72 | 0.81 |
| Down Beta | 0.84 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 1.08 | 0.95 |
| Up Capture | 40% | 168% | 134% | 111% | 106% | 96% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 70 | 152 | 430 |
| Down Capture | 38% | 117% | 94% | 87% | 85% | 90% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 29 | 54 | 98 | 317 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BK | 71.1% | 19.6% | 2.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.5% | 14.7% | 0.40 | 63.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.5% | 12.5% | 1.93 | 52.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.2% | 27.2% | 1.09 | 8.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.7% | 18.1% | 1.99 | 5.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.4% | 0.65 | 28.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.6% | 42.1% | -0.40 | 31.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BK | 26.9% | 24.6% | 0.95 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.3% | 18.7% | 0.43 | 80.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 63.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.1% | 17.8% | 0.92 | 6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.6% | 19.1% | 0.63 | 21.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 49.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.1% | 56.2% | 0.36 | 22.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BK | 15.8% | 27.0% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.6% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 81.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 66.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | -3.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 27.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 50.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 16.8% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/16/2026 | 2.2% | 3.0% | |
| 1/13/2026 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 1.3% |
| 10/16/2025 | -2.0% | -1.7% | 2.4% |
| 7/15/2025 | -0.1% | 3.5% | 9.4% |
| 4/11/2025 | 1.4% | -0.4% | 14.4% |
| 1/15/2025 | 8.0% | 11.0% | 15.0% |
| 10/11/2024 | -0.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| 7/12/2024 | 5.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 18 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 3.5% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.0% | -3.0% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 11.0% | 15.0% |
| Max Negative | -7.3% | -9.8% | -9.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perez, Alejandro | Sr. Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 137.01 | 12,504 | 1,713,156 | 8,578,487 | Form |
| 2 | Kurimsky, Kurtis R | Corporate Controller | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 136.02 | 5,290 | 719,523 | 2,347,495 | Form |
| 3 | McCarthy, J Kevin | SEVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 136.50 | 30,000 | 4,094,919 | 6,857,298 | Form |
| 4 | Hobbs, Shannon Marie | Senior Executive VP | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 137.05 | 297 | 40,705 | 2,084,029 | Form |
| 5 | McCarthy, J Kevin | SEVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7242025 | 98.45 | 20,000 | 1,969,000 | 3,457,033 | Form |
BK Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The score of 7 reflects a best-in-class operator that is clearly out-executing its primary competitor. The company's moat is widening, and strong internal execution provides a clear alpha thesis. However, the valuation is fair, not cheap, and the resulting risk/reward skew is not overwhelmingly positive. This makes it a high-quality holding to accumulate on any weakness, but not a 'fat pitch' overweight, given the potential downside from a market correction or regulatory headwinds.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type B: 'Quality Compounder / Stalwart'BNY Mellon fits the 'Stalwart' archetype due to its dominant market position as the world's largest custodian, a focus on ROIC (29.3% ROTCE), consistent earnings, and a strong competitive moat based on high switching costs. Its growth is solid and driven by efficiency, not hyper-growth, which is characteristic of a quality compounder.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for the stock is the company's successful transition into a technology-led platform, which is unlocking significant, structural operating leverage. By embedding AI and automation, BNY Mellon is growing revenues faster than expenses, leading to margin expansion and strong EPS growth. This efficiency gain is complemented by record sales momentum and a proven ability to cross-sell multiple services to new and existing clients, creating a durable, higher-margin revenue stream.
- Generated over 833 basis points of positive operating leverage in Q1 2026.
- Management raised the full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook to ~6% following a 'record sales performance' in Q1.
- Over 50% of new Asset Servicing clients in Q1 2026 also adopted other BNY Mellon services, validating the cross-selling strategy.
- Q1 2026 pre-tax margin of 37% significantly outpaces primary competitor State Street's adjusted margin of 29.0%
PRIMARY RISK
The finalization and implementation of 'Basel III Endgame' rules by U.S. regulators pose a significant risk to capital returns. The proposed rules, particularly new calculations for operational risk, could disproportionately increase the Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA) for banks with large fee-based businesses like BNY Mellon. This would increase capital requirements, potentially reducing balance sheet flexibility and constraining the capacity for share buybacks, which have been a key component of EPS growth.
- Industry groups have warned the rules could increase required capital for the largest banks by 16-20%.
- Implementation is set to begin in mid-2025, making this a near-to-medium term risk.
- The company's CET1 ratio already saw a sequential decline to 11.0% in Q1 2026, indicating sensitivity to RWA fluctuations.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Leverage | > +300 bps | This is the core of the Alpha thesis. Consistent positive operating leverage proves that technology investments are creating structural, high-margin growth, not just a cyclical bounce. |
| Fee Revenue Growth YoY | > 6% | Must exceed the company's full-year total revenue guidance to show that the most profitable, recurring revenue lines are driving the business forward, independent of volatile net interest income. |
| Assets Under Custody/Administration (AUC/A) Growth YoY | Outpacing State Street | Growth in the core asset base is the leading indicator for future fee revenue. The rate of growth relative to its primary competitor is the clearest signal of market share gains or losses. |
Operating Leverage vs. Regulatory Drag
BULL VIEW
Bulls are betting on continued strong operating leverage (833 bps in Q1) and cross-selling momentum to drive EPS growth, making regulatory impacts manageable.
CORE TENSION
Can technology-driven margin expansion outpace the negative impact of Basel III capital rules on share buybacks, which are a key component of EPS growth?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The company generated over 833 basis points of positive operating leverage and management raised full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook to ~6% following record Q1 sales performance.
BEAR VIEW
Bears fear that finalized Basel III rules will significantly raise RWA, constraining buybacks and compressing the stock's P/E multiple despite strong operational performance.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Mid-July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Maintain positive Operating Leverage > 300 bps to prove the 833 bps from Q1 was not an anomaly and that margin expansion is structural. |
Next Quarter (Q3 2026) | Finalization of 'Basel III Endgame' Rules Watch: Headline: Final rule text for operational risk RWA calculation. Signal is whether it's more punitive than international standards, directly impacting future CET1 ratio. |
Mid-October 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Fee Revenue Growth YoY > 6%. Needs to show continued momentum from record Q1 sales and prove the new guidance is sustainable. |
This Quarter (Q2 2026) | T+1 Settlement Cycle Stability Check Watch: Headline: DTCC announcement of a spike in settlement 'fails' or a BNY disclosure of an operational incident related to T+1 during market volatility. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Oct 20, 2025 | Strategic Win: AllianzGI Mandate Details: Secured a significant mandate for operational support for Allianz Global Investors, reinforcing market share gains and validating its platform strategy. | Rose significantly by 2.38% $104.99 -> $107.49 |
Nov 3, 2025 | Class Action Lawsuit Update Details: Ongoing litigation concerning role as indenture trustee for Barclays ETNs continues, representing a material unquantified liability and legal cost friction. | Flat (0.12%) $107.45 -> $107.58 |
Dec 8, 2025 | Strategic Win: PayPal Partnership Details: Announced partnership to provide digital asset custody services for PayPal, a key validation of its technology investments in the digital asset space. | Muted (0.37%) $113.51 -> $113.93 |
Jan 14, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings (Estimated) Details: For full year 2025, company reported 8% adjusted revenue growth outpacing 3% expense growth, marking eight consecutive quarters of positive operating leverage. | Modest 1.35% gain $122.38 -> $124.04 |
Apr 17, 2026 | Insider Sales Details: Following strong Q1 earnings, the SEVP & General Counsel and Corporate Controller sold a combined total of over $4.8 million in stock. | Flat (0.19%) $134.84 -> $135.10 |
Apr 16, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Details: Reported 833 bps of positive operating leverage and 11% YoY fee revenue growth. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to ~6%, citing record sales. | Rose significantly by 2.18% $131.96 -> $134.84 |
Position Sizing
7%-10%
AGGRESSIVE
Stock trades at moderate volatility (1.8x S&P). The Bullish sentiment, widening moat, fair valuation, and high visibility create a 'Fat Pitch' scenario, justifying an aggressive allocation.
Diversification Alternatives
STT
INDUSTRYWhile BK has superior margins, STT may offer a better entry point, trading at a discount to its historical P/E with potential margin expansion from its Alpha platform.
NTRS
INDUSTRYOffers a differentiated, concierge-style service model with a strong focus on high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth clients, leading to high client retention.
BNY Mellon is transitioning from a traditional custody bank into a technology-led financial markets infrastructure provider, leveraging its immense scale to embed AI and data analytics into workflows to drive operating leverage.
Filter all news through the lens of technology-driven operating leverage and organic, multi-product client growth.
Announcements of new strategic business wins, especially those involving multiple BNY services; evidence of AI-driven productivity gains or cost savings; consistent positive operating leverage (revenue growth outpacing expense growth by >300 bps); growth in ETF and Alternatives AUC/A >20% YoY.
Loss of a major asset servicing client; sustained negative operating leverage; significant net outflows in AUM for consecutive quarters; regulatory actions imposing higher capital requirements; a sharp, unexpected decline in interest rates compressing NIM.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in deposit balances; broad market commentary on interest rate direction (already priced in); single-quarter market value changes in AUM/AUC; competitor announcements of new technology without evidence of market share shifts.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is re-rating BNY Mellon based on its demonstrated ability to generate significant positive operating leverage (over 800 bps in Q1 2026) by integrating technology and AI into its core platforms. This efficiency gain, coupled with record sales momentum and a raised full-year revenue growth outlook to ~6%, suggests a structural improvement in profitability not solely dependent on interest rate cycles.
Securities & Asset Servicing
$10.8B TTM (50% of Total) · 39% MarginWhat It Is
Custody, fund accounting, ETF services, and issuer services (Corporate Trust). Manages the operational backbone for asset managers, pension funds, and corporations.
Who Pays & How
Global asset managers, pension funds, and corporations (serving over 90% of Fortune 100 companies) pay basis-point fees on assets because moving trillions in assets is operationally prohibitive and risky, creating immense switching costs. Corporate trust clients reached $15 trillion of total debt serviced in Q1 2026.
Competition
Market & Wealth Services
$7.6B TTM (35% of Total) · 51% MarginWhat It Is
Pershing (clearing and settlement for broker-dealers and RIAs), Treasury Services (payments), and Collateral Management.
Who Pays & How
Broker-dealers, Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs), and corporations pay for critical infrastructure to clear trades, manage collateral, and process payments. Pershing's Wealth Solutions added $22B in net new assets in Q1 2026.
Competition
Investment & Wealth Management
$3.3B TTM (15% of Total) · 11% MarginWhat It Is
Asset management services (equity, fixed income, multi-asset, and cash management solutions) and private banking for high-net-worth individuals.
Who Pays & How
Institutions and high-net-worth individuals pay management fees for investment performance and wealth advisory services. Wealth management client assets were $339 billion in Q1 2026.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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