Saul Centers (BFS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $32.14 | Market Cap: $778.8 MilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Retail REITs
Saul Centers (BFS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $32.14Market Cap: $778.8 MilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Retail REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 204% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% | Key risksBFS key risks include [1] high financial leverage, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Evolution of Physical Retail, and Urban & Suburban Development Trends. Themes include Necessity-Based Retail, and Mixed-Use Community Development. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Evolution of Physical Retail, and Urban & Suburban Development Trends. Themes include Necessity-Based Retail, and Mixed-Use Community Development. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 204% |
| Key risksBFS key risks include [1] high financial leverage, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BFS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The -4.2% movement in Saul Centers (BFS) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Regional Impact: Saul Centers experienced a sustained selloff of its common shares, influenced by a confluence of macroeconomic pressures, including persistent high interest rates throughout 2025 and the Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut rates until mid-September. Additionally, a pullback in federal hiring within the Washington D.C. metropolitan area, where many of Saul Centers' properties are concentrated, created significant regional headwinds for the company.
2. Decline in Funds From Operations (FFO): The REIT reported that its Funds From Operations (FFO) dipped by 10 cents per share, contributing to the stock's underperformance year-to-date. This decline in FFO likely signaled weaker operational profitability to investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BFS Return | -36% | 77% | -19% | 3% | 5% | -12% | -14% |
| Peers Return | -24% | 64% | -10% | 9% | 17% | -6% | 34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BFS Win Rate | 33% | 83% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 82% | 38% | 57% | 62% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BFS Max Drawdown | -53% | -4% | -29% | -16% | -9% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -4% | -27% | -13% | -11% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FRT, KIM, REG, BRX, KRG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BFS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -67.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 209.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2678 days | 1480 days |
Compare to O, FRT, GTY, WSR, SPG
In The Past
Saul Centers's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BFS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Saul Centers
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,300 |
| Op Inc LTM | 466 |
| FCF LTM | 485 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 441 |
| CFO LTM | 616 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 589 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 35.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 35.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 49.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 49.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 42.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 45.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| P/EBIT | 17.0 |
| P/E | 25.3 |
| P/CFO | 13.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -54.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shopping Centers | 179 | 172 | 170 | 162 | 168 |
| Mixed-Use Properties | 78 | 74 | 70 | 63 | 64 |
| Revenue adjustments | 1 | ||||
| Corporate and Other | 0 | ||||
| Total | 257 | 246 | 239 | 225 | 232 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shopping Centers | 140 | ||||
| Mixed-Use Properties | 49 | ||||
| Revenue adjustments | 1 | ||||
| General and administrative | -23 | ||||
| Depreciation and amortization of deferred leasing costs | -48 | ||||
| Total | 118 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mixed-Use Properties | 1,057 | 886 | 778 | 644 | 625 |
| Shopping Centers | 918 | 928 | 947 | 975 | 980 |
| Other assets | 19 | ||||
| Corporate and Other | 20 | 22 | 27 | 13 | |
| Total | 1,994 | 1,833 | 1,747 | 1,646 | 1,618 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 2.4% | 0.1% | 3.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.1% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 2/28/2025 | -1.9% | -1.1% | -3.7% |
| 11/7/2024 | 2.0% | -3.7% | -1.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | -1.7% | -2.8% | 3.3% |
| 2/29/2024 | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | 1.8% | -3.8% | 9.7% |
| 8/3/2023 | -3.6% | -0.8% | -2.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 2.5% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -3.5% | -3.7% |
| Max Positive | 4.1% | 14.3% | 31.3% |
| Max Negative | -7.2% | -6.0% | -29.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Heard Carlos Lawrence | Senior Vice President & CFO | 11202025 | Buy | 20.55 | 300 | 6,165 | 82,200 | Form |
| 1 | Heard Carlos Lawrence | Senior Vice President & CFO | 11182025 | Buy | 20.50 | 450 | 9,225 | 51,250 | Form |
| 2 | Heard Carlos Lawrence | Senior Vice President & CFO | 11132025 | Buy | 20.85 | 450 | 9,382 | 23,978 | Form |
| 3 | Collich John | Sr. VP, Chief Acq. & Dev. Off. | 11132025 | Buy | 29.99 | 2,000 | 59,987 | 1,477,459 | Form |
| 4 | Pearson David Todd | President & COO | 11132025 | Buy | 29.86 | 3,348 | 99,978 | 1,510,029 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |