Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 14%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 204%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Evolution of Physical Retail, and Urban & Suburban Development Trends. Themes include Necessity-Based Retail, and Mixed-Use Community Development.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 14%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Evolution of Physical Retail, and Urban & Suburban Development Trends. Themes include Necessity-Based Retail, and Mixed-Use Community Development.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 204%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BFS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Significant Decline in Q3 2025 Net Income: Saul Centers, Inc. reported a notable decrease in net income for the third quarter of 2025, falling to $14.0 million from $19.6 million in the same quarter of 2024. Net income available to common stockholders also saw a reduction, decreasing to $7.7 million ($0.32 per basic and diluted share) from $11.7 million ($0.48 per basic and diluted share) year-over-year.

2. Adverse Impact from Twinbrook Quarter Phase I Operations: The initial operations of Twinbrook Quarter Phase I continued to negatively affect financial results. In Q3 2025, this project adversely impacted net income by $4.7 million, primarily due to a reduction in capitalized interest. Similarly, Q2 2025 results, reported in August, also showed a reduction in net income by $5.4 million due to these initial operations and associated expense recognition.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BFS Return-36%77%-19%3%5%-16%-18%
Peers Return-26%48%-8%11%13%2%30%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BFS Win Rate33%83%33%50%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate42%75%47%50%57%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BFS Max Drawdown-53%-4%-29%-16%-9%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-5%-27%-17%-8%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: O, FRT, GTY, WSR, SPG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBFSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-67.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven209.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2678 days1480 days

Compare to O, FRT, GTY, WSR, SPG


In The Past

Saul Centers's stock fell -40.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -40.3% loss requires a 67.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Saul Centers (BFS)

Better Bets than Saul Centers (BFS)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BFS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Saul Centers

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BFSOFRTGTYWSRSPGMedian
NameSaul Cen.Realty I.Federal .Getty Re.Whitesto.Simon Pr. 
Mkt Price30.5858.0997.8828.3513.26182.3044.34
Mkt Cap0.753.18.41.60.759.55.0
Rev LTM2835,6121,2542141596,155768
Op Inc LTM1192,564451114553,120285
FCF LTM1063,763336129533,121233
FCF 3Y Avg1153,318276118513,066197
CFO LTM1063,763597130534,018364
CFO 3Y Avg1153,318572118513,870345

Growth & Margins

BFSOFRTGTYWSRSPGMedian
NameSaul Cen.Realty I.Federal .Getty Re.Whitesto.Simon Pr. 
Rev Chg LTM5.6%14.7%6.0%8.2%4.4%4.2%5.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.1%21.5%6.2%9.8%4.8%5.7%5.9%
Rev Chg Q7.0%9.1%6.1%8.0%5.5%8.2%7.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%2.1%1.5%2.0%1.4%2.0%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM42.0%45.7%36.0%53.2%34.4%50.7%43.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg44.7%42.6%35.1%52.7%33.3%50.4%43.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%1.1%-0.2%2.6%0.3%-0.3%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM37.6%67.1%47.6%60.8%33.4%65.3%54.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg43.2%69.5%48.2%59.6%33.2%66.1%53.9%
FCF/Rev LTM37.6%67.1%26.8%60.4%33.4%50.7%44.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg43.2%69.5%23.1%59.4%33.2%52.3%47.8%

Valuation

BFSOFRTGTYWSRSPGMedian
NameSaul Cen.Realty I.Federal .Getty Re.Whitesto.Simon Pr. 
Mkt Cap0.753.18.41.60.759.55.0
P/S2.79.96.97.13.910.07.0
P/EBIT6.625.916.212.88.017.314.5
P/E19.857.725.120.414.127.322.8
P/CFO7.314.814.611.711.815.213.2
Total Yield12.5%6.9%4.0%11.9%11.4%4.4%9.1%
Dividend Yield7.4%5.2%0.0%7.0%4.3%0.7%4.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg13.2%6.9%3.2%7.6%8.6%6.4%7.3%
D/E2.10.50.60.61.00.40.6
Net D/E2.00.50.50.61.00.40.6

Returns

BFSOFRTGTYWSRSPGMedian
NameSaul Cen.Realty I.Federal .Getty Re.Whitesto.Simon Pr. 
1M Rtn3.2%0.3%2.3%3.7%5.9%3.2%3.2%
3M Rtn-6.5%1.6%-1.1%2.0%4.1%1.4%1.5%
6M Rtn-8.4%6.8%5.3%2.0%10.7%15.6%6.0%
12M Rtn-19.4%9.7%-10.0%-6.4%-4.1%6.0%-5.2%
3Y Rtn-14.7%8.9%1.8%2.0%53.8%80.2%5.4%
1M Excs Rtn3.2%0.3%2.3%3.7%6.0%3.2%3.2%
3M Excs Rtn-12.0%-4.3%-7.3%-4.6%-2.7%-4.9%-4.7%
6M Excs Rtn-23.1%-7.9%-9.5%-12.7%-4.0%0.9%-8.7%
12M Excs Rtn-33.8%-6.9%-25.9%-21.5%-19.4%-9.3%-20.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-84.3%-61.5%-69.3%-68.9%-10.1%12.9%-65.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Shopping Centers179172170162168
Mixed-Use Properties7874706364
Revenue adjustments1    
Corporate and Other 0   
Total257246239225232


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Shopping Centers140    
Mixed-Use Properties49    
Revenue adjustments1    
General and administrative-23    
Depreciation and amortization of deferred leasing costs-48    
Total118    


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Mixed-Use Properties1,057886778644625
Shopping Centers918928947975980
Other assets19    
Corporate and Other 20222713
Total1,9941,8331,7471,6461,618


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity306,182
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202517.9%
Average Daily Volume75,429
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.06
Basic Shares Quantity24,230,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022302202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Heard Carlos LawrenceSenior Vice President & CFO11202025Buy20.553006,16582,200Form
1Heard Carlos LawrenceSenior Vice President & CFO11182025Buy20.504509,22551,250Form
2Heard Carlos LawrenceSenior Vice President & CFO11132025Buy20.854509,38223,978Form
3Collich JohnSr. VP, Chief Acq. & Dev. Off.11132025Buy29.992,00059,9871,477,459Form
4Pearson David ToddPresident & COO11132025Buy29.863,34899,9781,510,029Form