Flanigan'S Enterprises (BDL)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $30.26 | Market Cap: $56.2 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Flanigan'S Enterprises (BDL)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $30.26Market Cap: $56.2 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -42% | Key risksBDL key risks include [1] its limited geographic expansion and heavy market concentration in South Florida and [2] low net profit margins combined with volatile free cash flow. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -42% |
| Key risksBDL key risks include [1] its limited geographic expansion and heavy market concentration in South Florida and [2] low net profit margins combined with volatile free cash flow. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Overall Restaurant Industry Headwinds: The broader restaurant industry has faced significant challenges since late 2025, including persistent inflation, commodity volatility, and rising energy costs, all of which continue to pressure operator margins. Concurrently, consumers are experiencing higher everyday costs, leading to a reduction in discretionary income available for dining out, thus impacting guest counts and traffic for restaurants like Flanigan's. This macroeconomic environment created a difficult backdrop for the stock.
2. Significant Stock Underperformance Despite Strong Q4 Fiscal 2025 Earnings: Despite reporting strong results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 (period ended September 27, 2025), with sales increasing to $49.2 million from $46 million and net income rising to $0.9 million from $0.2 million, the stock experienced a notable decline. Following these earnings, which were reported around December 22, 2025, and initially led to a 4.1% gain, Flanigan's stock subsequently lost 8.9% in the month leading up to December 26, 2025, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 which rose 1.5% during the same period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.1% change in BDL stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.00 | 31.00 | -3.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 201 | 208 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 2.8% | 29.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.8 | 10.0 | -27.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2 | 2 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.1% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BDL | -3.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 21.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -10.4% | 26.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.7% change in BDL stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.04 | 31.00 | 6.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 201 | 208 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 2.8% | 29.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.5 | 10.0 | -20.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2 | 2 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BDL | 6.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 15.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -8.5% | 15.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.7% change in BDL stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 62.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.86 | 31.00 | 24.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 192 | 208 | 8.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.7% | 2.8% | 62.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.0 | 10.0 | -28.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2 | 2 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BDL | 24.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 4.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.3% | 4.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.6% change in BDL stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.78 | 31.00 | 11.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 158 | 208 | 31.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.0% | 2.8% | -30.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.2 | 10.0 | 21.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2 | 2 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BDL | 11.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 7.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 49.0% | 7.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BDL Return | 56% | -14% | 1% | 0% | 19% | 5% | 71% |
| Peers Return | 5% | -6% | 31% | 52% | -7% | 1% | 83% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BDL Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 38% | 58% | 62% | 43% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BDL Max Drawdown | -6% | -17% | -1% | -5% | -8% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -28% | -3% | -19% | -20% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DRI, TXRH, EAT, CAKE, BLMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BDL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 152.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 306 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,286 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 324.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,546 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DRI, TXRH, EAT, CAKE, BLMN
In The Past
Flanigan'S Enterprises's stock fell -42.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/6/2021. A -42.5% loss requires a 74.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Flanigan'S Enterprises (BDL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Imagine a regional Chili's or Applebee's, but many restaurants are directly attached to their own package liquor stores.
2. Like a Florida-based Outback Steakhouse that also owns a chain of liquor stores.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Products/Services of Flanigan's Enterprises (BDL)
- Package Liquor Stores: Operates under the Big Daddy's Liquors name, selling private label liquors, beer, and wines.
- Restaurants: Operates as Flanigan's Seafood Bar and Grill, providing full food services and alcoholic beverages.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Flanigan's Enterprises (BDL) primarily sells its products and services directly to individual consumers.
Its major customer categories are:
- Restaurant Patrons: Individuals who frequent Flanigan's Seafood Bar and Grill locations for full-service dining, including food and alcoholic beverages.
- Liquor Store Consumers: Individuals who purchase private label liquors, beer, and wines from Big Daddy's Liquors stores for off-premise consumption.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
James G. Flanigan II, Chief Executive OfficerJames G. Flanigan II has been the Chief Executive Officer of Flanigan's Enterprises since 2005, having previously served as President from 2002 and a Director since 1991. He stepped down as President and Chairman of the Board on January 8, 2026, but remains Chief Executive Officer and a director. He is the son of the company's founder, Joseph "Big Daddy" Flanigan, who established the initial business focusing on lounges and package liquor stores in 1959. Mr. Flanigan has also served as a Vice President and shareholder of Twenty Seven Birds Corporation, a franchisee of Flanigan's, since 1985. He is the sole Manager of Flanigan Family Stock Holdings, LLC (FFSH), which controls significant voting and investment power over the company's shares, contributing to Flanigan's Enterprises being considered a "controlled company."
Allison Govoni, Chief Financial OfficerAllison Govoni was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Flanigan's Enterprises effective January 8, 2026, succeeding Jeffrey D. Kastner. She joined the company in 2007 and has held various positions within the accounting department, including Director of Accounting and Corporate Controller from 2017 to 2024.
Christopher O'Neil, PresidentChristopher O'Neil was named President of Flanigan's Enterprises effective January 8, 2026, taking over from James G. Flanigan II in that role. Prior to this appointment, he served as the Vice President of Package Operations. Mr. O'Neil also continues to serve as a director of the company.
Peter Bruce, Chief Operating OfficerPeter Bruce was appointed Chief Operating Officer of Flanigan's Enterprises effective January 8, 2026, succeeding August H. Bucci. He joined the company in 2016 and has held several management roles within the restaurant division, including Director of Operations from 2022 to 2026 and Supervisor of Operations from 2018 to 2022.
Jeffrey D. Kastner, Chief Legal Officer and Chairman of the BoardJeffrey D. Kastner transitioned from his role as Chief Financial Officer to Chief Legal Officer and Chairman of the Board effective January 8, 2026. He also maintains his positions as General Counsel, Secretary, and a director of the company. Mr. Kastner has a long history with Flanigan's, having joined the Board of Directors in 1985, serving as a corporate attorney for the company from 1979 to 1982, and as general counsel since 1982. He was also President of his law firm, Jeffrey D. Kastner, P.A., from 1983 through 2004.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. (symbol: BDL) faces several key risks inherent to its business model of operating full-service restaurants and package liquor stores, particularly given its geographic concentration.
- Geographical Concentration and Exposure to Natural Disasters: A primary risk for Flanigan's Enterprises is its heavy concentration in South Florida. This geographical focus makes the company highly vulnerable to regional economic downturns and, significantly, to natural disasters such as hurricanes. Such events can cause extensive property damage, disrupt operations, deter tourism, and negatively impact the local economy, thereby affecting the company's revenue and profitability.
- Highly Competitive Industry and Rising Operating Costs: The company operates in the intensely competitive restaurant and package liquor store industries. A continuous challenge is managing rising operating costs, including increases in food, fuel, and labor expenses due to inflation. These escalating costs can put significant pressure on profit margins, requiring the company to implement strategic price increases and cost control measures to maintain profitability.
- Regulatory Compliance and Liquor Liability: Flanigan's Enterprises is subject to extensive federal, state, and local regulations pertaining to labor, health, safety, and particularly, alcohol sales. Non-compliance with these regulations can lead to fines, penalties, or even loss of licenses. Furthermore, the company faces significant liquor liability risks, including potential legal ramifications under "dram shop" statutes for serving intoxicated individuals or liability for serving underage patrons, which could result in substantial legal and financial costs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The rise of online alcohol delivery platforms poses an emerging threat to Flanigan's Enterprises' Package Stores segment. These platforms offer consumers direct-to-door delivery of beer, wine, and spirits, challenging the traditional brick-and-mortar retail model of Big Daddy's Liquors by providing a convenient alternative for purchasing alcoholic beverages.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for Flanigan's Enterprises (symbol: BDL) main products and services in Florida are as follows:
For its full-service restaurants, operating under the Flanigan's Seafood Bar and Grill service mark, the addressable market size is approximately $66.1 billion in annual sales for full-service restaurants in Florida (as of 2023).
For its package liquor stores, operating under the Big Daddy's Liquors name, the addressable market for spirits is over $9 billion in annual sales in Florida (as of 2022). In Florida, spirits are exclusively available from package stores.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Flanigan's Enterprises (symbol: BDL) over the next 2-3 years:- Strategic Price Increases: Flanigan's Enterprises has been implementing targeted menu and bar price increases to preserve margins amidst inflation and drive revenue growth. This strategy has contributed to expanding gross profit margins in its restaurant and bar segment.
- Increased Customer Traffic and Sales Volume: The company anticipates continued growth in both restaurant food and bar sales, as well as package liquor store sales, driven by an expected increase in customer traffic. Recent results have shown higher sales in both operating segments, indicating ongoing consumer demand.
- New Location Openings: Expansion through new restaurant and package liquor store locations is a driver of revenue growth. The opening of new units, such as the Hollywood, FL location, has demonstrably contributed to top-line performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the quarter ended December 27, 2025, totaled $595,000, which included renovation spending at several company-owned locations.
- In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Flanigan's Enterprises acquired undeveloped land in Cutler Bay, Florida, for $2.2 million in cash, intended for a future restaurant site.
- The company anticipates that its current cash on hand and positive operating cash flow will be sufficient to cover operations and planned capital expenditures for at least the next 12 months.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Can Flanigan'S Enterprises Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 93.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 4,822 |
| Op Inc LTM | 369 |
| FCF LTM | 245 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 218 |
| CFO LTM | 516 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 444 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 13.3 |
| P/E | 18.4 |
| P/CFO | 8.2 |
| Total Yield | 8.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 46.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -12.3% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $31.00 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/07/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -11.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $30.06 | $28.27 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 3.1% | 9.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 67.7% | 67.7% |
| Downside Capture | 0.71 | 0.33 |
| Upside Capture | 211.07 | 62.73 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 20.5% | 5.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.18 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Up Beta | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.93 | 1.51 | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| Down Beta | -3.24 | 0.26 | 1.13 | 0.87 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Up Capture | 110% | 88% | 22% | 11% | 9% | 3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 5 | 12 | 21 | 44 | 86 | 278 |
| Down Capture | 86% | -5% | -11% | -39% | -31% | 19% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 15 | 22 | 48 | 103 | 311 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BDL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDL | 101.4% | 66.5% | 2.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.6% | 23.6% | 0.13 | 4.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 5.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | -7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 0.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | -7.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 44.2% | -0.49 | 20.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BDL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDL | 15.6% | 52.7% | 0.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.6% | 23.7% | 0.20 | 7.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 7.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 1.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | -0.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 3.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 6.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BDL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDL | 10.6% | 46.3% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.6% | 21.9% | 0.49 | 15.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 15.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 5.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 14.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.4% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 4.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 12/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/19/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 12/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 12/29/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/16/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 01/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/24/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flanigan, James Ii | CEO, President | Direct | Buy | 1022026 | 30.00 | 866 | 25,980 | 29,429,880 | Form |
| 2 | Flanigan, James Ii | CEO, President | Direct | Buy | 1022026 | 29.89 | 1,000 | 29,886 | 29,347,481 | Form |
| 3 | Flanigan, James Ii | COO, President | Direct | Buy | 5292025 | 25.39 | 10,940 | 277,776 | 24,886,354 | Form |
| 4 | Bucci, August | Chief Operating Off. | Direct | Buy | 5292025 | 26.73 | 2,000 | 53,460 | 122,958 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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