Tearsheet

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)


Market Price (11/14/2025): $6.94 | Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)


Market Price (11/14/2025): $6.94
Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Pharmaceuticals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -119%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Rare Disease Therapeutics, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Rare Disease Therapeutics, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -119%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.8%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

BCRX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between July 31, 2025, and November 14, 2025, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) experienced a stock decline of 15.2% due to several key factors:



1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results with Revenue Miss: BioCryst Pharmaceuticals released its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 3, 2025, reporting a mixed performance where the company missed revenue expectations despite an earnings per share (EPS) beat. The company's Q3 2025 revenue was $159.4 million, falling short of analyst consensus estimates which ranged from $161.2 million to $166.2 million. This revenue shortfall, even with a non-GAAP EPS beat, led to a "slight negative bias" and a pre-market stock drop of 3.89% following the announcement. While ORLADEYO net revenue grew by 37% year-over-year to $159.1 million, the overall revenue still did not meet forecasts.

2. Downward Revisions of Analyst Price Targets: Following the Q3 2025 earnings report, several analysts lowered their price targets for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals. Barclays, for instance, decreased its target price from $11.00 to $9.00 on November 4, 2025. Citizens JMP also adjusted its price target downward from $27.00 to $25.00 on November 5, 2025. Needham similarly adjusted its price target from $20.00 to $18.00 on November 4, 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BCRX Return116%86%-17%-48%26%-8%100%
Peers Return-10%-6%-26%-27%-27%1975%589%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BCRX Win Rate67%67%67%33%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate22%30%22%23%32%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BCRX Max Drawdown-54%-1%-43%-57%-31%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-17%-13%-31%-34%-35%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BGM, NSRX, RGC, RHHBY, SXTC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBCRXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-74.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven296.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven156.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven51 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-83.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven513.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven445 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-93.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1351.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven279 days1480 days

Compare to BGM, NSRX, RGC, RHHBY, SXTC


In The Past

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -74.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2022. A -74.8% loss requires a 296.8% gain to breakeven.

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About BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)

Better Bets than BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BCRX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GDRX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10312025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.2%-9.2%-10.1%
DXCM_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025DXCMDexComMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.4%2.4%-5.8%
ACHC_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025ACHCAcadia HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-25.6%-25.6%-25.6%
PBH_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025PBHPrestige Consumer HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.8%-0.8%-1.9%
REGN_10032025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10032025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
13.6%13.6%-7.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GDRX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10312025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.2%-9.2%-10.1%
DXCM_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025DXCMDexComMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.4%2.4%-5.8%
ACHC_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025ACHCAcadia HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-25.6%-25.6%-25.6%
PBH_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025PBHPrestige Consumer HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.8%-0.8%-1.9%
REGN_10032025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10032025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
13.6%13.6%-7.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals

Financials

BCRXBGMNSRXRGCRHHBYSXTCMedian
NameBioCryst.BGM Nasus Ph.Regencel.Roche China SX. 
Mkt Price6.909.187.9013.0045.521.308.54
Mkt Cap1.5-----1.5
Rev LTM600-----600
Op Inc LTM76-----76
FCF LTM48-----48
FCF 3Y Avg-40------40
CFO LTM50-----50
CFO 3Y Avg-39------39

Growth & Margins

BCRXBGMNSRXRGCRHHBYSXTCMedian
NameBioCryst.BGM Nasus Ph.Regencel.Roche China SX. 
Rev Chg LTM45.4%-----45.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg36.2%-----36.2%
Rev Chg Q36.1%-----36.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.6%-----7.6%
Op Mgn LTM12.7%-----12.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-10.3%------10.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.0%-----3.0%
CFO/Rev LTM8.4%-----8.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-13.3%------13.3%
FCF/Rev LTM8.0%-----8.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-13.7%------13.7%

Valuation

BCRXBGMNSRXRGCRHHBYSXTCMedian
NameBioCryst.BGM Nasus Ph.Regencel.Roche China SX. 
Mkt Cap1.5-----1.5
P/S2.4-----2.4
P/EBIT17.6-----17.6
P/E-165.2------165.2
P/CFO28.9-----28.9
Total Yield-0.6%------0.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%-----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.0%------3.0%
D/E0.4-----0.4
Net D/E0.3-----0.3

Returns

BCRXBGMNSRXRGCRHHBYSXTCMedian
NameBioCryst.BGM Nasus Ph.Regencel.Roche China SX. 
1M Rtn7.5%-4.4%3.3%-24.5%1.7%-10.3%-1.3%
3M Rtn-18.3%21.2%-1.9%2.4%17.7%-17.7%0.2%
6M Rtn-32.4%-20.3%-22.9%18.5%-16.7%-16.7%
12M Rtn-9.7%40.4%-7,740.8%27.0%-64.7%27.0%
3Y Rtn-49.7%--1,570.1%28.2%-99.0%-10.7%
1M Excs Rtn0.3%-0.6%-1.0%-31.7%1.3%-11.3%-0.8%
3M Excs Rtn-22.0%16.8%-6.9%-5.4%10.5%-23.2%-6.2%
6M Excs Rtn-46.3%-34.2%-9.0%4.7%-30.5%-30.5%
12M Excs Rtn-28.0%18.7%-8,012.7%12.8%-78.8%12.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-119.1%--1,688.1%-46.4%-174.9%-82.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment331    
Collaborative and other revenues 361125
Product sales, net 268136318
Milestone revenue  15  
Royalty revenue  -036
Total3312711571849


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment-227    
Total-227    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity32,471,309
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520255.5%
Average Daily Volume5,591,508
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.81
Basic Shares Quantity210,176,000
Short % of Basic Shares15.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/14/2025-8.8%-1.6% 
8/4/20259.8%4.4%4.3%
5/5/202523.5%11.6%25.3%
2/24/2025-10.0%-6.5%-12.6%
11/4/2024-12.8%-7.7%-14.7%
8/5/20247.0%8.7%17.5%
5/6/202418.4%19.6%51.5%
2/26/20241.4%-1.6%-14.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11913
# Negative131511
Median Positive9.8%11.6%17.5%
Median Negative-8.8%-6.5%-13.5%
Max Positive23.5%32.4%52.5%
Max Negative-18.1%-26.2%-43.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Hutson Nancy J 12162024Sell7.547,00052,780653,251Form