Tearsheet

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.8 | Market Cap: $1.6 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.8
Market Cap: $1.6 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Pharmaceuticals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -6.0%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -109%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 32x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.7%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Rare Disease Therapeutics, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Rare Disease Therapeutics, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -6.0%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -109%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 32x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BCRX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) experienced a stock movement of -5.5% during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, due to several key factors:

**1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss:** BioCryst Pharmaceuticals reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 3, 2025, where its revenue of $159.1 million (or $159.4 million) fell slightly below analyst expectations, which ranged from approximately $162.97 million to $166.2 million. This revenue shortfall contributed to investor concerns and a negative market reaction following the earnings announcement.

**2. Analyst Downgrade:** On October 14, 2025, Evercore ISI downgraded BioCryst Pharmaceuticals and reduced its price target for the stock. This downgrade directly contributed to a significant decline in the stock's value on that particular day.

**3. Product Concentration Risk and Competition:** A persistent concern for investors is BioCryst's substantial reliance on its primary product, ORLADEYO, for the majority of its revenue. This concentration risk is intensified by increasing competition within the hereditary angioedema (HAE) treatment market and the early developmental stages of other pipeline assets. The recent sale of the European ORLADEYO business also means a reduction in international revenue, further concentrating revenue sources.

**4. Increase in Operating Expenses:** While the company reported improved profitability for the third quarter of 2025 and raised its full-year ORLADEYO revenue guidance, operating expenses for the third quarter increased to $83.0 million, marking a 27% rise year-over-year. This increase was primarily driven by investments in research and development and commercial activities, which may have tempered overall investor sentiment regarding future profitability.

**5. Mixed Investor Sentiment Post-Earnings:** Despite exceeding earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Q3 2025 and providing an optimistic outlook by raising full-year ORLADEYO revenue guidance, the stock experienced a negative market reaction, including a pre-market drop and a month-to-date decline following the earnings release. This indicates a cautious investor sentiment, where the revenue miss outweighed the positive profitability indicators for some.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BCRX Return116%86%-17%-48%26%-5%108%
Peers Return8%36%20%3%5%22%134%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BCRX Win Rate67%67%67%33%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate48%58%60%42%42%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BCRX Max Drawdown-54%-1%-43%-57%-31%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-6%-13%-21%-7%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LHI, LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBCRXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-74.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven296.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven156.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven51 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-83.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven513.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven445 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-93.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1351.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven279 days1480 days

Compare to LHI, LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE


In The Past

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -74.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2022. A -74.8% loss requires a 296.8% gain to breakeven.

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About BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)

Better Bets than BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BCRX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BCRXLHILLYJNJMRKPFEMedian
NameBioCryst.Living H.Eli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer  
Mkt Price7.85-1,033.56205.33102.2725.57102.27
Mkt Cap1.6-928.0494.5255.2145.4255.2
Rev LTM600-53,25892,14964,23562,78662,786
Op Inc LTM76-22,88224,14622,39115,41722,391
FCF LTM48--5018,67913,04910,37610,376
FCF 3Y Avg-40--15617,81413,6858,9278,927
CFO LTM50-10,93824,20417,06513,07713,077
CFO 3Y Avg-39-7,23023,20917,50612,12712,127

Growth & Margins

BCRXLHILLYJNJMRKPFEMedian
NameBioCryst.Living H.Eli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer  
Rev Chg LTM45.4%-36.8%5.1%1.7%3.9%5.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg36.2%-23.4%6.1%2.9%-13.2%6.1%
Rev Chg Q36.1%-37.6%6.8%3.7%-5.9%6.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.6%-8.7%1.7%1.0%-1.6%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM12.7%-43.0%26.2%34.9%24.6%26.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-10.3%-35.6%26.4%23.7%19.4%23.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.0%-1.8%1.7%3.7%-1.4%1.8%
CFO/Rev LTM8.4%-20.5%26.3%26.6%20.8%20.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-13.3%-17.8%26.4%28.2%18.9%18.9%
FCF/Rev LTM8.0%--0.1%20.3%20.3%16.5%16.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-13.7%-0.5%20.3%22.0%13.9%13.9%

Valuation

BCRXLHILLYJNJMRKPFEMedian
NameBioCryst.Living H.Eli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer  
Mkt Cap1.6-928.0494.5255.2145.4255.2
P/S2.7-12.94.83.32.33.3
P/EBIT19.3-38.613.89.112.213.8
P/E-181.7-49.617.811.014.714.7
P/CFO31.8-62.618.412.311.118.4
Total Yield-0.6%-2.7%8.4%13.0%13.5%8.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.7%2.7%3.9%6.7%2.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.0%-0.1%4.4%5.5%5.5%4.4%
D/E0.4-0.10.10.20.40.2
Net D/E0.3-0.10.10.10.30.1

Returns

BCRXLHILLYJNJMRKPFEMedian
NameBioCryst.Living H.Eli LillyJohnson .Merck Pfizer  
1M Rtn14.4%-15.5%10.9%24.0%3.7%14.4%
3M Rtn-5.3%-40.3%16.1%22.7%5.0%16.1%
6M Rtn-28.9%-35.5%35.9%33.3%13.2%33.3%
12M Rtn9.2%-28.0%38.9%4.1%7.3%9.2%
3Y Rtn-38.6%-182.4%25.7%1.6%-40.3%1.6%
1M Excs Rtn14.5%-15.5%11.0%24.0%3.7%14.5%
3M Excs Rtn-10.4%-34.0%10.2%17.5%0.7%10.2%
6M Excs Rtn-43.6%-20.7%21.1%18.6%-1.6%18.6%
12M Excs Rtn-8.9%-17.4%23.0%-9.2%-8.9%-8.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-108.8%-116.6%-46.0%-69.7%-111.4%-69.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment331    
Collaborative and other revenues 361125
Product sales, net 268136318
Milestone revenue  15  
Royalty revenue  -036
Total3312711571849


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment-227    
Total-227    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity36,461,313
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202512.3%
Average Daily Volume5,388,109
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.77
Basic Shares Quantity210,176,000
Short % of Basic Shares17.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0SANDERS MACHELLE 11172025Sell7.149,60068,544218,784Form