BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)
Market Price (6/29/2026): $9.4 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)
Market Price (6/29/2026): $9.4Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 76% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Rare Disease Therapeutics, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.6% Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -28% Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.39, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -382 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -43% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% Key risksBCRX key risks include [1] significant financial distress, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 76% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Rare Disease Therapeutics, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.6% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -28% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.39, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -382 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -43% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% |
| Key risksBCRX key risks include [1] significant financial distress, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) stock has gained about 15% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Continued strong ORLADEYO revenue growth and reaffirmed fiscal year 2026 guidance.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals reported robust ORLADEYO net revenue of $148.3 million for fiscal Q1 2026, marking an 11% year-over-year increase (21% on a comparable basis excluding European revenue). The company also reaffirmed its full-year 2026 ORLADEYO revenue guidance, projecting between $625 million and $645 million, indicating sustained demand for its primary product.
2. Strategic navenibart licensing agreement bolstered liquidity.
BioCryst entered into a significant licensing agreement for the European commercial rights to navenibart, an investigational hereditary angioedema candidate. The deal included an upfront payment of $70 million and potential milestone payments of up to $275 million, along with tiered royalties ranging from 18% to 30%. This agreement notably strengthened the company's liquidity position to a pro-forma $331 million as of March 31, 2026.
Show more
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) stock has gained about 15% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Continued strong ORLADEYO revenue growth and reaffirmed fiscal year 2026 guidance.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals reported robust ORLADEYO net revenue of $148.3 million for fiscal Q1 2026, marking an 11% year-over-year increase (21% on a comparable basis excluding European revenue). The company also reaffirmed its full-year 2026 ORLADEYO revenue guidance, projecting between $625 million and $645 million, indicating sustained demand for its primary product.
2. Strategic navenibart licensing agreement bolstered liquidity.
BioCryst entered into a significant licensing agreement for the European commercial rights to navenibart, an investigational hereditary angioedema candidate. The deal included an upfront payment of $70 million and potential milestone payments of up to $275 million, along with tiered royalties ranging from 18% to 30%. This agreement notably strengthened the company's liquidity position to a pro-forma $331 million as of March 31, 2026.
3. Positive pipeline progress and analyst price target increase.
The company demonstrated continued progress with its pipeline assets, including navenibart, with patient enrollment in the ALPHA-ORBIT pivotal study on track for completion by the end of June 2026. Following these updates, Citizens boosted its price target on BCRX from $25 to $28 and maintained an Outperform rating, citing steady ORLADEYO demand, reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and visible pipeline upside.
4. Speculation surrounding a potential acquisition.
BioCryst's stock experienced a jump of approximately 11% in after-hours trading on June 23, 2026, driven by market speculation regarding a potential acquisition by a larger U.S. biopharma firm with a market capitalization exceeding $15 billion. This unconfirmed acquisition buzz led to a surge in retail investor sentiment, which turned "extremely bullish."
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.6% change in BCRX stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.75 | 9.94 | 13.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 875 | 886 | 1.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.1 | 2.7 | 28.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 211 | 242 | -12.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BCRX | 13.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.6% | 25.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 0.5% | 27.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.4% change in BCRX stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 47.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.18 | 9.94 | 38.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 600 | 886 | 47.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.5 | 2.7 | 8.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 210 | 242 | -13.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BCRX | 38.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | 19.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 2.6% | 29.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.5% change in BCRX stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -39.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.75 | 9.94 | -7.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 503 | 886 | 75.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.5 | 2.7 | -39.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 209 | 242 | -13.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BCRX | -7.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 25.1% | 23.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 23.0% | 23.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.2% change in BCRX stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 205.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.27 | 9.94 | 20.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 290 | 886 | 205.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.4 | 2.7 | -49.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 189 | 242 | -22.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BCRX | 20.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 24.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 31.9% | 26.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BCRX Return | 86% | -17% | -48% | 26% | 4% | 27% | 33% |
| Peers Return | 2% | 23% | 24% | -8% | 46% | -3% | 102% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BCRX Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 52% | 54% | 48% | 67% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BCRX Max Drawdown | -37% | -60% | -58% | -46% | -43% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -23% | -15% | -32% | -27% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VRTX, REGN, IONS, GILD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BCRX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 676 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -43.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -10.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 105 days |
In The Past
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -31.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 46.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | BCRX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 676 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -43.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -86.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 633.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1854 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -87.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 713.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1854 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1164 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 577.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 242 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -31.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 46.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel, orally administered small-molecule medicines. The company leverages its expertise to create innovative therapies, primarily addressing rare and serious diseases, as well as certain infectious diseases.
The company currently markets two key products. Its influenza treatment, peramivir injection, is sold under the brand names RAPIVAB, RAPIACTA, and PERAMIFLU, providing an intravenous option for acute uncomplicated influenza. BioCryst's other significant commercial product is ORLADEYO, an oral medication specifically developed to treat hereditary angioedema (HAE), a rare genetic disorder characterized by recurring episodes of severe swelling.
Beyond its marketed therapies, BioCryst maintains an active pipeline of investigational drugs targeting various unmet medical needs. This includes BCX9930, an oral factor D inhibitor in Phase II clinical trials for complement-mediated diseases; BCX9250, an oral activin receptor-like kinase-2 inhibitor in Phase I for fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva; and Galidesivir, an RNA dependent-RNA polymerase inhibitor also in Phase I, being developed to treat a range of severe RNA viral infections such as Marburg, Ebola, and Zika.
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. They are like a **Vertex Pharmaceuticals** for rare diseases, but also developing antiviral medicines.
2. Think of them as a specialized **Gilead Sciences** that also has a strong focus on developing oral drugs for rare diseases.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- RAPIVAB (peramivir injection): An intravenous neuraminidase inhibitor for the treatment of acute uncomplicated influenza.
- ORLADEYO: An oral serine protease inhibitor used to treat hereditary angioedema.
- BCX9930: An oral factor D inhibitor currently in Phase II clinical trials for complement-mediated diseases.
- BCX9250: An oral activin receptor-like kinase-2 inhibitor in Phase I clinical trials for fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva.
- Galidesivir: A RNA dependent-RNA polymerase inhibitor in Phase I clinical trials for various RNA viruses, including Marburg, Yellow Fever, Ebola, and Zika.
AI Analysis | Feedback
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) sells primarily to other companies through collaboration and in-license relationships for the distribution and marketing of its pharmaceutical products in various regions. The major customer companies identified from the provided description are:
- Torii Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TYO: 4551)
- Seqirus UK Limited (a subsidiary of CSL Limited, ASX: CSL)
- Shionogi & Co., Ltd. (TYO: 4507)
- Green Cross Corporation (KRX: 006280)
- Mundipharma International Holdings Limited (private company)
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Charlie Gayer, President and Chief Executive Officer
Charlie Gayer was appointed President of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals in August 2025 and assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer on January 1, 2026. He also joined the Board of Directors in January 2026. Mr. Gayer joined BioCryst in 2015 as Vice President of Global Strategic Marketing and was promoted to Chief Commercial Officer in January 2020. Before joining BioCryst, he held several U.S. and global commercial leadership positions in rare disease categories at Talecris Biotherapeutics, Inc., where he led U.S. alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency marketing and later European sales and marketing. After Talecris was acquired by Grifols, S.A., Mr. Gayer led the U.S. marketing team for the combined immune globulin product portfolio. Earlier in his career, he spent six years at GlaxoSmithKline in various marketing and sales roles. He began his career as a strategic consultant for biopharmaceutical companies and served as a business analyst at Genzyme Corporation for three years. Mr. Gayer earned his B.A. in politics from Princeton University and his M.B.A. from the Fuqua School of Business of Duke University.
Babar Ghias, Chief Financial Officer and Head of Corporate Development
Babar Ghias was appointed Chief Financial Officer and Head of Corporate Development at BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, effective July 7, 2025. Prior to joining BioCryst, Mr. Ghias served as CFO at AvenCell Therapeutics since 2022. He previously served as executive vice president of investments and portfolio management at Paragon Biosciences, a global biotech development firm. At Paragon, he launched four biotechnology companies focused on rare diseases. From 2014 to 2017, Mr. Ghias was CFO and head of corporate development at Marathon Pharmaceuticals, a specialty rare disease company, where he prepared the company for a commercial launch and led its successful sale. He has raised over $1 billion in capital for companies he has been involved with. Earlier in his career, for over a decade, he was an investment banker at Credit Suisse, where he provided strategic advice to clients and boards of directors in the healthcare and life sciences industries, closing over $80 billion in transactions. Mr. Ghias holds an M.B.A. with honors from Washington University in St. Louis and a B.S. in economics from Lahore University of Management Sciences in Pakistan.
William P. Sheridan, Chief Development Officer
Dr. William P. Sheridan became Chief Development Officer at BioCryst Pharmaceuticals on September 14, 2022, focusing on advancing the company's pipeline. He initially joined BioCryst in July 2008 as Chief Medical Officer. Before his tenure at BioCryst, Dr. Sheridan spent 15 years at Amgen, Inc., where he held various Vice President-level roles, including Vice President-North American Medical Affairs. At Amgen, he was instrumental in building the international medical affairs function and contributing to the successful launch of numerous compounds, such as Aranesp®, Enbrel®, Kineret®, Neulasta®, and Sensipar®. Prior to Amgen, he served as the Head of the Bone Marrow Transplant Service at Royal Melbourne Hospital. Dr. Sheridan earned his MB BS degree (MD equivalent) at the University of Melbourne in Victoria, Australia. He is a board-certified Fellow of the Royal Australasian College of Physicians, with a sub-specialty in medical oncology, and a Fellow of the American College of Physicians.
Ryan Arnold, Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Ryan Arnold was appointed Chief Medical Officer of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals on September 15, 2022. He joined BioCryst in March 2022 as Senior Vice President of Global Medical Affairs. Dr. Arnold has over 20 years of industry experience, with prior roles of increasing responsibility in medical affairs at various companies, including Amgen, Genzyme, Biogen, Sage Therapeutics, and Annexon Biosciences. Throughout his career, he has contributed to building and leading medical functions, supporting the development and launch of numerous specialty and rare disease products across neurology, hematology, immunology, oncology, and other areas. Dr. Arnold holds a Doctorate of Osteopathic Medicine from the Michigan State University College of Osteopathic Medicine and completed residency training that included clinical responsibilities in otolaryngology and facial plastic surgery.
Alane Barnes, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary
Alane Barnes serves as the Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals. She has been with BioCryst as General Counsel since June 2006 and as Corporate Secretary since December 2006. Ms. Barnes has been involved in company filings as recently as January 2026.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Competition for ORLADEYO: BioCryst's flagship product, ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an oral treatment for hereditary angioedema (HAE), faces significant and growing competition in the market. This competition comes from established injectable HAE therapies, such as Takeda's Takhzyro and CSL Behring's Haegarda, as well as emerging oral options like Pharvaris' deucrictibant and sebetralstat. This competitive landscape could exert pressure on ORLADEYO's market share, pricing, and overall sales growth, potentially impacting BioCryst's revenue and its trajectory towards sustained profitability. Some analyses suggest a potential reduction in ORLADEYO's market share in the coming years.
- Clinical Development and Regulatory Risk for Pipeline Products: The future growth and diversification of BioCryst are heavily reliant on the successful development and regulatory approval of its pipeline candidates. The company has several drugs in early to mid-stage clinical trials, including BCX9930 (Phase II for complement-mediated diseases), BCX9250 (Phase I for fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva), and Galidesivir (Phase I for various RNA viruses). Clinical trials inherently carry high risks of failure, and the inability to achieve positive results or secure necessary regulatory approvals for these programs would significantly hinder the company's long-term growth prospects. Even for ORLADEYO, delays or failures in obtaining approval for label expansions, such as for pediatric patients, can negatively affect growth projections.
- Dependence on ORLADEYO and Challenges to Sustained Profitability: BioCryst's financial health and ability to achieve sustained profitability are substantially tied to the continued commercial success of ORLADEYO. While the company has shown progress towards profitability, achieving and maintaining consistent positive cash flow remains a challenge. If ORLADEYO's revenues do not meet expectations, or if research and development expenses for pipeline candidates or commercial costs for marketed products are higher than anticipated, BioCryst may need to seek additional funding, potentially leading to shareholder dilution.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' main products, ORLADEYO and peramivir injection, target significant addressable markets.
ORLADEYO (Hereditary Angioedema - HAE)
The global hereditary angioedema (HAE) therapeutics market was valued at approximately $4.1 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $9.1 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2% from 2024 to 2032. Another estimate places the global HAE therapeutic market size at $4.25 billion in 2024, with an expectation to reach $8.29 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 8.72% during the forecast period. The United States represents a substantial portion of this market, accounting for approximately 90% of the HAE market size, or around $2 billion in 2023. North America held a 46.8% share of the global HAE therapeutics market in 2023 and is anticipated to maintain its dominance. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals projects that ORLADEYO could achieve peak annual sales exceeding $1 billion.
Peramivir Injection (Influenza)
Peramivir is an intravenous neuraminidase inhibitor used for the treatment of acute uncomplicated influenza. The global peramivir market is projected to reach $10.55 billion by 2030, with a robust CAGR of 15.55% from 2025 to 2033. In 2024, peramivir accounted for 18% of global anti-influenza drug prescriptions, which totaled over 550 million. More broadly, the global influenza antiviral drugs market is projected to reach approximately $5.8 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.5% from 2025 to 2033. The global neuraminidase inhibitors drug market, which includes peramivir, was valued at $5.1 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $9.7 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 6.8%. North America is expected to hold a significant share of this market, with a projected 39.9% by 2035.
AI Analysis | Feedback
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Continued Growth and Market Penetration of ORLADEYO in Adult Hereditary Angioedema (HAE) Patients: BioCryst anticipates sustained revenue increases from its flagship product, ORLADEYO. The company projects full-year 2026 ORLADEYO revenues to be between $625 million and $645 million, representing approximately 13% growth over 2025 revenues adjusted for Europe. This growth is fueled by increasing patient volume, strong patient retention rates (e.g., 61% of patients remaining on treatment at twelve months), and strategic pricing adjustments, including a 9% price increase in early January (2026) that is expected to result in a net 4.5% increase. BioCryst also has a long-term goal of ORLADEYO achieving $1 billion in annual sales by 2029.
- Expansion into the Pediatric HAE Market with ORLADEYO Pellets: A significant driver of future revenue is the recent FDA approval in December 2025 for ORLADEYO oral pellets for HAE patients aged 2 to less than 12 years. This new formulation positions ORLADEYO as a likely sole oral prophylactic option for this pediatric population for several years, opening up a new and important market segment. Management has expressed strong confidence in the long-term revenue potential from this pediatric indication.
- Advancement and Potential Launch of Navenibart for HAE: The acquisition of Astria Therapeutics in late 2025/early 2026 introduced Navenibart, a subcutaneously administered drug, into BioCryst's HAE pipeline. Navenibart is currently in Phase III clinical trials, with top-line data anticipated in early 2027 and a potential regulatory filing by the end of 2027. This asset is designed to be a differentiated injectable prophylaxis for HAE, offering the potential for less frequent dosing (every three or six months), and is expected to address an additional addressable market of over 5,000 patients, further strengthening BioCryst's HAE franchise.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- BioCryst Pharmaceuticals registered 11,000,000 shares of common stock for issuance under its Stock Incentive Plan in 2025.
- The total outstanding shares for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals increased from 182 million to 210 million between 2021 and 2025.
- In Q4 2025, shares outstanding increased by 1.2% from the prior quarter, reaching 213 million shares.
Inbound Investments
- BioCryst Pharmaceuticals ended 2025 with $337.5 million in cash and investments.
- The company had access to a $400 million financing facility with Blackstone Life Sciences.
Outbound Investments
- BioCryst completed the acquisition of Astria Therapeutics, Inc. in late 2025/early 2026 to expand its Hereditary Angioedema (HAE) portfolio.
- In October 2025, BioCryst sold its European ORLADEYO business to Neopharmed Gentili S.p.A., generating $243.3 million in revenue.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were reported as -$2.47 million in the last 12 months.
- In Q4 2025, capital expenditures were $802K, marking a decrease of 40.3% from the prior quarter.
- Increased research and development (R&D) costs are anticipated in 2026, primarily due to ongoing Phase III trials and BLA enabling CMC activities for Navenabart.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 127.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 65.8 |
| Rev LTM | 12,218 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,843 |
| FCF LTM | 3,710 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,977 |
| CFO LTM | 4,241 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,401 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 9.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 30.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA219776 | ORLADEYO | berotralstat dihydrochloride | pellets | 12112025 | 10.6% | 12.1% | 31.1% | 31.1% | 31.1% |
| NDA214094 | ORLADEYO | berotralstat dihydrochloride | capsule | 12032020 | 112.7% | 218.6% | 122.8% | 149.1% | 93.6% |
| NDA206426 | RAPIVAB | peramivir | solution | 12192014 | -15.0% | 39.9% | -8.0% | -44.5% | -10.9% |
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA219776 | ORLADEYO | berotralstat dihydrochloride | pellets | 12112025 | 10.6% | 12.1% | 31.1% | 31.1% | 31.1% |
| NDA214094 | ORLADEYO | berotralstat dihydrochloride | capsule | 12032020 | 112.7% | 218.6% | 122.8% | 149.1% | 93.6% |
| NDA206426 | RAPIVAB | peramivir | solution | 12192014 | -15.0% | 39.9% | -8.0% | -44.5% | -10.9% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.94 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/04/1994 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -0.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $8.92 | $7.97 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 11.5% | 24.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.8% | 45.5% |
| Downside Capture | 47.30 | 85.99 |
| Upside Capture | 46.24 | 74.52 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 27.8% | 23.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.69 | 1.50 | 0.90 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.93 |
| Up Beta | -0.34 | 0.90 | 1.06 | 0.97 | 1.18 | 0.81 |
| Down Beta | 8.32 | 7.04 | 1.35 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 0.72 |
| Up Capture | -58% | 32% | 56% | 74% | 52% | 97% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 17 | 26 | 59 | 104 | 343 |
| Down Capture | -77% | 276% | 84% | 41% | 115% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 24 | 37 | 65 | 141 | 389 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BCRX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCRX | 5.1% | 45.5% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 21.4% | 15.4% | 1.06 | 22.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.4% | 1.26 | 23.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 27.7% | 0.70 | 3.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.8% | 18.6% | 0.92 | -14.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 16.1% | 13.6% | 0.85 | 8.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.2% | 42.5% | -1.25 | 12.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BCRX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCRX | -8.4% | 62.1% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.0% | 14.8% | 0.29 | 26.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 29.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 19.5% | 0.28 | 3.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.9% | 0.08 | 23.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.9% | 54.0% | 0.39 | 17.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BCRX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCRX | 13.5% | 72.6% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.4% | 16.6% | 0.51 | 29.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 30.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.1% | 0.60 | 7.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 10.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 22.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 54.7% | 66.4% | 0.95 | 7.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/29/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | -2.2% | -2.5% | -6.2% |
| 2/26/2026 | 4.6% | 13.5% | 26.6% |
| 11/3/2025 | -6.3% | -3.1% | 7.2% |
| 8/4/2025 | 9.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% |
| 5/5/2025 | 23.5% | 11.6% | 25.3% |
| 2/24/2025 | -10.0% | -6.5% | -12.6% |
| 11/4/2024 | -12.8% | -7.7% | -14.7% |
| 8/5/2024 | 7.0% | 8.7% | 17.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 11.1% | 11.6% | 15.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -5.5% | -12.6% |
| Max Positive | 25.6% | 32.4% | 52.5% |
| Max Negative | -18.1% | -22.0% | -21.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | -2.2% | -2.5% | -6.2% |
| 2/26/2026 | 4.6% | 13.5% | 26.6% |
| 11/3/2025 | -6.3% | -3.1% | 7.2% |
| 8/4/2025 | 9.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% |
| 5/5/2025 | 23.5% | 11.6% | 25.3% |
| 2/24/2025 | -10.0% | -6.5% | -12.6% |
| 11/4/2024 | -12.8% | -7.7% | -14.7% |
| 8/5/2024 | 7.0% | 8.7% | 17.5% |
| 5/6/2024 | 18.4% | 19.6% | 51.5% |
| 2/26/2024 | 1.4% | -1.6% | -14.0% |
| 1/8/2024 | 25.6% | 4.3% | -9.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | -1.6% | -4.5% | 7.3% |
| 8/3/2023 | 1.9% | 0.6% | 2.3% |
| 5/3/2023 | 12.5% | 16.4% | 13.8% |
| 2/21/2023 | -15.3% | -11.5% | -19.9% |
| 11/1/2022 | -11.2% | -11.4% | 0.1% |
| 8/4/2022 | 23.2% | 32.4% | 26.5% |
| 5/5/2022 | -3.9% | -22.0% | 2.7% |
| 2/23/2022 | -5.9% | -5.2% | -7.5% |
| 11/3/2021 | -18.1% | -14.5% | -21.6% |
| 8/5/2021 | 8.5% | -4.2% | -2.2% |
| 5/6/2021 | 21.0% | 16.9% | 52.5% |
| 2/25/2021 | -11.3% | 0.5% | -9.3% |
| 11/5/2020 | -0.8% | -0.2% | 42.9% |
| 8/6/2020 | -5.0% | -5.7% | -13.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 11.1% | 11.6% | 15.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -5.5% | -12.6% |
| Max Positive | 25.6% | 32.4% | 52.5% |
| Max Negative | -18.1% | -22.0% | -21.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 ORLADEYO revenue | 625.00 Mil | 635.00 Mil | 645.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 635.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total revenue | 635.00 Mil | 647.50 Mil | 660.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 647.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating expense | 450.00 Mil | 460.00 Mil | 470.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 460.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 ORLADEYO revenue | 625.00 Mil | 635.00 Mil | 645.00 Mil | 6.7% | Raised | Guidance: 595.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Total revenue | 635.00 Mil | 647.50 Mil | 660.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating expense | 450.00 Mil | 460.00 Mil | 470.00 Mil | 5.8% | Raised | Guidance: 435.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McKee, Amy E | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 8.97 | 11,180 | 100,285 | 280,330 | Form | |
| 2 | Barnes, Alane P | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 9.54 | 62,500 | 596,250 | 3,822,707 | Form |
| 3 | Heggie, Theresa | Direct | Sell | 3242026 | 10.11 | 49,933 | 504,823 | 660,709 | Form | |
| 4 | Barnes, Alane P | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 9.15 | 150,000 | 1,372,500 | 3,666,432 | Form |
| 5 | Barnes, Alane P | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 7.65 | 21,773 | 166,563 | 3,050,445 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McKee, Amy E | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 8.97 | 11,180 | 100,285 | 280,330 | Form | |
| 2 | Barnes, Alane P | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 9.54 | 62,500 | 596,250 | 3,822,707 | Form |
| 3 | Heggie, Theresa | Direct | Sell | 3242026 | 10.11 | 49,933 | 504,823 | 660,709 | Form | |
| 4 | Barnes, Alane P | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 9.15 | 150,000 | 1,372,500 | 3,666,432 | Form |
| 5 | Barnes, Alane P | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 7.65 | 21,773 | 166,563 | 3,050,445 | Form |
| 6 | Barnes, Alane P | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 7.65 | 21,210 | 162,256 | 2,415,304 | Form |
| 7 | Barnes, Alane P | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 7.65 | 19,770 | 151,240 | 2,642,891 | Form |
| 8 | Barnes, Alane P | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 7.21 | 50,906 | 367,216 | 2,634,739 | Form |
| 9 | Barnes, Alane P | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 7.10 | 91,004 | 646,511 | 2,956,427 | Form |
| 10 | Sanders, MacHelle | Direct | Sell | 11172025 | 7.14 | 9,600 | 68,544 | 218,784 | Form | |
| 11 | Heggie, Theresa | Direct | Sell | 8152025 | 8.51 | 70,000 | 595,868 | 556,302 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Pharmaceuticals Resources |
| Fierce Pharma |
| Pharm Exec |
| Endpoints News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.