BancFirst (BANF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $111.25 | Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
BancFirst (BANF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $111.25Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -102% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | ||
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 16% | ||
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 6.5% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -102% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 16% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 6.5% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BANF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why BancFirst's (BANF) stock moved by approximately -16% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. BancFirst Missed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Estimates.
BancFirst reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 17, 2025, with a net income of $62.7 million, or $1.85 per diluted share. This performance missed analysts' estimates, which often leads to a negative market reaction and a decline in stock price.
2. Widespread Concerns Over Regional Bank Credit Quality.
During the period, broader market fears intensified regarding the credit quality of U.S. regional banks, especially concerning their exposure to commercial real estate (CRE) loans and isolated incidents of loan fraud at other institutions. These concerns raised the specter of increased loan loss provisions and diminished profitability across the regional banking sector, affecting investor sentiment for companies like BancFirst.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BANF Return | -3% | 23% | 27% | 12% | 23% | -4% | 101% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 12% | -18% | 18% | 1% | 19% | 28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BANF Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 25% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BANF Max Drawdown | -56% | -7% | 0% | -18% | -16% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -2% | -23% | -16% | -10% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BANF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 552 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 133.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 294 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 752 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 148.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2776 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
BancFirst's stock fell -38.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/15/2022. A -38.8% loss requires a 63.4% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BANF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 09302022 | BANF | BancFirst | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -6.2% | -1.2% | -19.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 09302022 | BANF | BancFirst | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -6.2% | -1.2% | -19.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for BancFirst
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.0 |
| Rev LTM | 180 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | 12 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 18 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.0 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 14.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 10.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 11.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -58.4% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BancFirst Community Banks | 7,013 | 6,886 | 5,821 | 5,528 | 4,998 |
| BancFirst Metropolitan Banks | 3,599 | 3,412 | 2,628 | 2,730 | 2,806 |
| Executive, Operations & Support | 1,308 | 1,473 | 1,202 | 1,074 | 951 |
| Pegasus | 1,281 | 1,404 | 1,046 | 920 | 738 |
| Worthington | 600 | 541 | |||
| Other Financial Services | 122 | 172 | 72 | 137 | 102 |
| Eliminations | -1,550 | -1,501 | -1,363 | -1,175 | -1,030 |
| Total | 12,372 | 12,388 | 9,406 | 9,212 | 8,566 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |