American Axle & Mfg (AXL)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $6.49 | Market Cap: $769.7 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
American Axle & Mfg (AXL)
Market Price (12/23/2025): $6.49Market Cap: $769.7 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 22% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.0% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 260% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Advanced Materials. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.57 | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 59% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24% | ||
| Key risksAXL key risks include [1] a product portfolio heavily concentrated on internal combustion engine components vulnerable to the industry's EV transition, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Advanced Materials. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -68%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.57 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 260% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 59% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24% |
| Key risksAXL key risks include [1] a product portfolio heavily concentrated on internal combustion engine components vulnerable to the industry's EV transition, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period for American Axle & Mfg (AXL) stock movement, from August 31, 2025, to December 23, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, specific factual reasons for an 11.7% stock movement during this time cannot be provided. However, stock prices for companies like American Axle & Mfg are typically influenced by a range of factors that could lead to significant changes.1. Financial Performance and Earnings Reports. Public companies like AXL are heavily impacted by their quarterly and annual financial results, including revenue, net income, earnings per share (EPS), and profit margins. Stronger-than-expected earnings or a positive outlook for future performance often drive stock prices up, while disappointing results can lead to declines.
2. Industry Trends and Automotive Market Conditions. As an automotive supplier, AXL's stock performance is closely tied to the broader automotive industry. Factors such as vehicle production volumes, consumer demand for new cars, interest rates affecting car financing, and shifts towards electric vehicles (EVs) can significantly influence the company's prospects and, consequently, its stock price.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.4% change in AXL stock from 9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 9.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9222025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.05 | 6.50 | 7.44% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5833.20 | 5833.60 | 0.01% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.73% | 0.72% | -1.88% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.80 | 18.40 | 9.49% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 118.60 | 118.60 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.44% |
Market Drivers
9/22/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXL | 7.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.7% | 41.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.9% | 41.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 58.5% change in AXL stock from 6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 97.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 6232025 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.10 | 6.50 | 58.54% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5929.30 | 5833.60 | -1.61% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.36% | 0.72% | 97.16% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.38 | 18.40 | -17.79% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 117.90 | 118.60 | -0.59% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 58.53% |
Market Drivers
6/23/2025 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXL | 58.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.4% | 37.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 14.3% | 36.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.5% change in AXL stock from 12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a 50.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 12222024 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.78 | 6.50 | 12.46% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6207.10 | 5833.60 | -6.02% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.48% | 0.72% | 50.62% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.96 | 18.40 | -19.88% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 117.60 | 118.60 | -0.85% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.45% |
Market Drivers
12/22/2024 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXL | 12.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.9% | 49.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.8% | 48.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.0% change in AXL stock from 12/23/2022 to 12/22/2025 was primarily driven by a -91.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12232022 | 12222025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.65 | 6.50 | -15.03% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5644.80 | 5833.60 | 3.34% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.07% | 0.72% | 888.88% |
| P/E Multiple | 213.83 | 18.40 | -91.40% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114.60 | 118.60 | -3.49% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.14% |
Market Drivers
12/23/2023 to 12/22/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXL | -26.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 47.7% | 49.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 38.4% | 48.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AXL Return | -22% | 12% | -16% | 13% | -34% | 14% | -38% |
| Peers Return | 37% | 9% | -19% | 15% | -25% | 16% | 20% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 113% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AXL Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 33% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 53% | 38% | 47% | 35% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AXL Max Drawdown | -75% | -5% | -30% | -18% | -37% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -9% | -41% | -14% | -37% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PATK, VC, CVGI, APTV, MGA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/22/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AXL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -75.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 300.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 311 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -71.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 252.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -99.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 10448.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to PATK, VC, CVGI, APTV, MGA
In The Past
American Axle & Mfg's stock fell -50.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -50.5% loss requires a 102.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Magna International for vehicle axles and driveline systems.
- Dana Incorporated for heavy-duty vehicle driveline components.
- The 'Intel Inside' for vehicles, providing the crucial axles and power systems that move cars and trucks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Driveline Systems: These include axles, driveshafts, and power transfer units essential for transmitting power from the engine to the wheels in vehicles.
- Drivetrain Components: AXL manufactures a range of components such as gears, shafts, differentials, and housings that are integral to a vehicle's drivetrain.
- Electrification Products: The company provides electric drive units (e-Drive) and other electric powertrain components for hybrid and electric vehicles.
- Metal Forming Products: AXL produces highly engineered metal formed products, including various types of gears, shafts, and other precision components used across automotive and industrial applications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of American Axle & Mfg (AXL)
American Axle & Mfg (AXL) primarily sells to other companies, specifically global automotive and commercial vehicle manufacturers.
Based on their latest public filings (10-K for fiscal year 2023), their major customers are:
- General Motors Company (Symbol: GM)
- Stellantis N.V. (Symbol: STLA)
- Ford Motor Company (Symbol: F)
These three customers accounted for approximately 35%, 18%, and 10% of AXL's net sales in 2023, respectively.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
David C. Dauch, Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
David C. Dauch joined American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM) in 1995 and has held various positions of increasing responsibility, including President & Chief Operating Officer (2009), President & Chief Executive Officer (2012), and has served as Chairman & Chief Executive Officer since 2013. With nearly 40 years of experience in the automotive industry, he began his career as a Manufacturing Co-op student with Chrysler Corporation in 1982. Prior to AAM, he held several positions at Collins & Aikman Products Co. His father, Richard E. Dauch, was a co-founder of AAM in 1994 when a private investor group acquired a business unit from GM. David C. Dauch has been a member of AAM's Board of Directors since 2009.
Christopher J. May, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Christopher J. May started his career at AAM in 1994 as a Financial Analyst at the company's World Headquarters. He has progressively advanced through various financial roles, including Manager Financial Reporting, Finance Manager, Director Internal Audit, Assistant Treasurer, and Treasurer, before assuming his current position in August 2015. Before joining AAM, Mr. May worked as a Senior Accountant for Ernst & Young. He holds a Master of Business Administration degree from the University of Detroit Mercy and a Bachelor of Science degree in Accounting from Canisius College, and is also a Certified Public Accountant. Over the past several years, he has led the company's efforts to refinance its capital structure and strengthen its financial processes.
Michael J. Lynch, President & Chief Operating Officer
Michael J. Lynch has served as AAM's Chief Operating Officer since December 2022 and as President since 2023. He joined AAM in September 1996 and has held numerous leadership roles across finance and operations, including President - Driveline, Vice President - Finance & Controller, and Vice President - Driveline Business Performance & Cost Management.
Michael K. Simonte, President
Michael K. Simonte joined AAM in December 1998 as Director, Corporate Finance. He was appointed President in August 2015. Prior to this, he served as Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, Group Vice President - Finance & Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance & Chief Financial Officer, Vice President & Treasurer, and Treasurer. Before his tenure at AAM, Mr. Simonte was a Senior Manager at the Detroit office of Ernst & Young LLP.
Terri M. Kemp, Senior Vice President Chief of Staff
Terri M. Kemp is the Senior Vice President Chief of Staff at American Axle & Manufacturing. She is also listed as Senior Vice President, Human Resources & Sustainability, with senior management tenure since 2023.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to American Axle & Mfg (AXL) are primarily related to the automotive industry's ongoing transformation, its substantial debt load, and the complexities associated with its recent major acquisition.
- Industry Transition and Decline in Automotive Demand: American Axle & Mfg faces significant risk from the broader automotive industry's transition, particularly the shift towards electric vehicles (EVs), given its historical focus on Driveline and Metal Forming technologies primarily associated with internal combustion engines. A decline in overall automotive demand would directly reduce orders for the company's parts. This fundamental change in market dynamics poses a long-term challenge to the company's core business model and profitability.
- High Debt and Leverage: The company carries a substantial amount of debt, which presents a significant financial risk. Concerns include the burden of interest expenses impacting profitability, challenges in organically deleveraging the business, and the potential for dilution if the company needs to issue new shares to improve its balance sheet. The recent acquisition of the Dowlais Group has further increased American Axle's leverage, intensifying these concerns.
- Integration Risks from Dowlais Acquisition: While the acquisition of the Dowlais Group is expected to increase American Axle's scale and diversify its business, it introduces considerable integration risks. These include the potential for unforeseen liabilities, difficulties in successfully merging operations, and challenges in achieving the anticipated cost synergies. S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on American Axle to negative, specifically citing these integration risks and near-term cash flow concerns following the transaction.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The primary clear emerging threat to American Axle & Mfg (AXL) is the rapid and accelerating global transition of the automotive industry from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs).
This fundamental shift threatens AXL's business because:
- Obsolescence of Core Products: AXL has historically derived significant revenue from driveline components specifically designed for ICE vehicles. The widespread adoption of BEVs directly reduces demand for these legacy products, risking obsolescence for a substantial portion of AXL's traditional portfolio.
- Intensified Competition in EV Components: While AXL is developing electric drive units (EDUs) and other EV-specific solutions, the market for these new components is highly competitive, with numerous established Tier 1 suppliers and new entrants vying for market share. This competition could lead to significant pricing pressures and challenge AXL's ability to secure profitable new business to offset the decline in ICE-related revenues.
- High Capital Investment and Adaptation Risk: Adapting to EV requirements necessitates substantial ongoing investment in research, development, and manufacturing capacity for new technologies. Failure to innovate quickly enough, or to secure sufficient new EV-related contracts to cover these investments and maintain profitability, poses a significant financial and strategic risk.
Evidence for this threat includes aggressive timelines from major global automotive OEMs for phasing out ICE vehicle production and dramatically increasing BEV output, along with new EV manufacturers rapidly gaining market share and establishing new supply chain relationships.
AI Analysis | Feedback
American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) operates primarily in the automotive driveline and metal forming technologies sectors, supplying components and systems for electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles globally. The addressable markets for their main products and services are substantial:
-
Driveline Systems: The global driveline market was valued at approximately USD 28.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 113.19 billion by 2035, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.38% from 2025–2035. Another estimate valued the global driveline market at USD 45.13 billion in 2024, forecasting a rise to USD 144.07 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 13.5% from 2026 to 2032. In 2023, the global driveline market was estimated at USD 25.36 billion, expected to reach USD 94.22 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 15.7% from 2025-2032.
-
Electric Vehicle Driveline Systems: The global electric vehicle driveline market was valued at USD 13.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at an 8.4% CAGR between 2024 and 2032. Another assessment valued the global market at USD 22.9 billion in 2024, with expectations to reach USD 90 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of approximately 13.2% from 2025-2035. The U.S. region alone held over 70% of the electric vehicle driveline market share in 2023 and is anticipated to exceed USD 5.5 billion by 2032.
-
Automotive Axle Market: The global automotive axle market size was valued at USD 61.21 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 72.45 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 1.7% from 2024 to 2033. Another report indicated the global automotive axle market was valued at USD 9.37 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 28.48 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 11.77% from 2025 to 2034. The Asia Pacific automotive axle market was valued at USD 4.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 14.38 billion by 2034.
-
Power Transfer Units (PTUs): The global Power Transfer Unit (PTU) market was estimated at approximately USD 3.2 billion to USD 4.5 billion in 2023. It is projected to grow to between USD 5.6 billion and USD 8.2 billion by 2032, with CAGRs ranging from 6.1% to 6.8%.
-
Metal Forming Technologies (as part of the broader Automotive Components Market): The global automotive components market, which includes metal-formed products, was valued at USD 1,964.51 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 3,429.54 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.73%. Another source estimates the market to grow from USD 1,780.34 billion in 2025 to USD 2,660.79 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 4.1%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- New Business Backlog and Program Wins: AXL projects approximately $600 million in new and incremental business backlog to launch between 2024 and 2026. This includes an estimated $300 million in 2024, $175 million in 2025, and $125 million in 2026. The company has also secured new and replacement programs, including a significant volume uplift for a popular heavy-duty truck program.
- Expansion in Electrification (EV Components): A substantial portion of the new business backlog is attributed to electrification, with an estimated 50% of the new backlog linked to electric vehicle components, an increase from 40% in the prior 2023-2025 backlog. This indicates a strategic shift and growing demand for AXL's products in the evolving EV market.
- Combination with Dowlais: The ongoing combination with Dowlais is a significant strategic move expected to position AXL as a premier global driveline and metal forming supplier, enhancing its size, scale, and value creation potential. This acquisition is anticipated to bolster future growth and geographic diversification, with the deal targeted to close in the first quarter of 2026.
- Launch with Scout Motors: AXL anticipates the start of production with Scout Motors in 2027, which, while slightly beyond the immediate 2-3 year window, suggests foundational work and potential revenue generation from this new customer in the latter part of the forecast period.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. reported net total equity repurchases of approximately $15 million in 2023, $2 million in 2022, $4 million in 2021, $3 million in 2020, and $3 million in 2024.
Share Issuance
- On July 15, 2025, AAM shareholders approved an increase in the number of authorized shares from 150 million to 375 million as part of the terms for the business combination with Dowlais Group plc.
- New AAM shares are to be issued as part of the Combination with Dowlais Group plc.
Outbound Investments
- American Axle & Manufacturing announced a recommended cash and share offer to acquire Dowlais Group plc on January 29, 2025.
- The acquisition received approval from AAM stockholders on July 15, 2025, and Dowlais shareholders on July 22, 2025, with the transaction expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- To fund the Dowlais acquisition, AAM announced a proposed private offering of $843 million in senior secured notes and $600 million in senior unsecured notes, later upsized to $850 million and $1.25 billion, respectively.
Capital Expenditures
- For the full year 2025, capital expenditures, net of proceeds from asset sales, are expected to be approximately $280 million, representing about 5% of sales.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is on important upcoming launches, especially for major truck programs, and supporting AAM's electrification growth strategy, including a significant supply deal with Scout Motors for electric drive units and rear e-Beam axles.
- In October 2025, AAM received a tax break for a $133 million investment in its Michigan facility for upgrades, prioritizing it over its Mexico site.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| American Axle & Mfg Earnings Notes | |||
| Is American Axle & Mfg Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| Day 8 of Gains Streak for American Axle & Mfg Stock with 35% Return (vs. -0.2% YTD) [8/13/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 7 of Gains Streak for American Axle & Mfg Stock with 32% Return (vs. -2.1% YTD) [8/12/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 6 of Gains Streak for American Axle & Mfg Stock with 29% Return (vs. -5% YTD) [8/11/2025] | Notification | ||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy American Axle & Mfg Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| American Axle & Mfg (AXL) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| American Axle & Mfg (AXL) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| American Axle & Mfg (AXL) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| American Axle & Mfg (AXL) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| AXL Stock Up 35% after 8-Day Win Streak | August 14th, 2025 | ||
| AXL Stock Up 32% after 7-Day Win Streak | August 13th, 2025 | ||
| AXL Stock Up 29% after 6-Day Win Streak | August 12th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to AXL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for American Axle & Mfg
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 65.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.2 |
| Rev LTM | 4,853 |
| Op Inc LTM | 300 |
| FCF LTM | 275 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 274 |
| CFO LTM | 469 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 407 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driveline | 4,177 | 4,064 | 3,376 | 4,550 | |
| Metal Forming | 2,454 | 2,281 | 1,652 | 1,845 | |
| Corporate and Eliminations | 0 | 0 | |||
| Intersegment sales | -552 | -542 | -317 | -669 | |
| Casting | 0 | ||||
| Total | 6,080 | 5,802 | 4,711 | 5,726 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driveline | 2,554 | 2,542 | 2,926 | 3,036 | 3,779 |
| Metal Forming | 1,789 | 1,900 | 1,577 | 1,680 | 1,900 |
| Corporate and Eliminations | 1,013 | 1,027 | 1,200 | 966 | |
| Other | 1,133 | ||||
| Total | 5,356 | 5,469 | 5,636 | 5,916 | 6,645 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $6.50 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/29/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $6.25 | $5.12 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 4.1% | 27.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.6% | 53.7% |
| Downside Capture | 154.07 | 163.17 |
| Upside Capture | 169.59 | 150.28 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 41.6% | 49.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.64 | 1.75 | 1.57 | 1.82 | 1.35 | 1.47 |
| Up Beta | -2.83 | -1.63 | -0.79 | 0.31 | 1.01 | 1.25 |
| Down Beta | 2.71 | 3.43 | 3.09 | 2.69 | 1.50 | 1.34 |
| Up Capture | 294% | 236% | 177% | 271% | 191% | 316% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 32 | 66 | 116 | 355 |
| Down Capture | 236% | 175% | 141% | 161% | 132% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 28 | 55 | 121 | 375 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of AXL With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXL | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 3.3% | 3.1% | 14.7% | 67.3% | 6.8% | -0.5% | -16.6% |
| Annualized Volatility | 53.6% | 24.7% | 19.7% | 19.3% | 15.2% | 17.6% | 35.4% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.25 | 0.07 | 0.57 | 2.54 | 0.23 | -0.18 | -0.25 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 48.7% | 49.7% | -1.8% | 19.9% | 37.1% | 21.9% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of AXL With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXL | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -3.7% | 10.2% | 15.0% | 18.9% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 35.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 53.0% | 23.8% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.13 | 0.39 | 0.71 | 0.98 | 0.51 | 0.18 | 0.63 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 47.7% | 48.5% | 1.6% | 13.4% | 40.8% | 21.1% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of AXL With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXL | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -11.0% | 13.3% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 69.9% |
| Annualized Volatility | 59.8% | 22.0% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.05 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 0.84 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 51.7% | 54.2% | -2.0% | 22.5% | 43.7% | 13.5% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLY, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/7/2025 | 6.2% | 1.0% | -2.6% |
| 8/8/2025 | 15.3% | 27.1% | 33.0% |
| 5/2/2025 | 5.0% | 13.9% | 13.9% |
| 1/29/2025 | 3.2% | -2.3% | -5.3% |
| 11/8/2024 | 8.8% | 1.0% | 10.0% |
| 8/9/2024 | 4.8% | 1.9% | -5.8% |
| 5/3/2024 | 2.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% |
| 2/16/2024 | -3.2% | -17.1% | -20.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 4.9% | 18.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -11.0% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 39.9% | 27.1% | 116.4% |
| Max Negative | -14.2% | -21.7% | -57.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.