Tearsheet

American Axle & Mfg (AXL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.64 | Market Cap: $787.5 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment

American Axle & Mfg (AXL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.64
Market Cap: $787.5 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 24%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.5%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 282%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Advanced Materials. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0%
2   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51%
3   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 24%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Advanced Materials. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.5%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 282%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51%
7 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AXL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the stock movement of American Axle & Mfg (AXL) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results and Positive Outlook. American Axle & Manufacturing reported solid third-quarter 2025 financial results, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.16, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.12. The company also demonstrated strong cash flow, with nearly $100 million in adjusted free cash flow for the quarter, and continued a trend of positive year-over-year operating performance.

2. Upgraded Analyst Ratings and Price Target Increases. During this period, several financial analysts upgraded their ratings and raised price targets for AXL. On September 2, 2025, Royal Bank of Canada elevated American Axle & Manufacturing from a "sector perform" to an "outperform" rating, increasing its price target from $6.00 to $8.00. Similarly, UBS Group raised its target price from $7.50 to $8.50 and maintained a "buy" rating on October 6, 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AXL Return-22%12%-16%13%-34%12%-39%
Peers Return37%9%-19%15%-25%14%18%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AXL Win Rate58%42%50%42%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate63%53%38%47%35%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AXL Max Drawdown-75%-5%-30%-18%-37%-47% 
Peers Max Drawdown-63%-9%-41%-14%-37%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PATK, VC, CVGI, APTV, MGA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAXLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven102.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-75.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven300.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven311 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-71.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven252.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-99.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven10448.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to PATK, VC, CVGI, APTV, MGA


In The Past

American Axle & Mfg's stock fell -50.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -50.5% loss requires a 102.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About American Axle & Mfg (AXL)

Better Bets than American Axle & Mfg (AXL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AXL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for American Axle & Mfg

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AXLPATKVCCVGIAPTVMGAMedian
NameAmerican.Patrick .Visteon Commerci.Aptiv Magna In. 
Mkt Price6.64108.33101.641.7278.0949.5063.80
Mkt Cap0.83.52.80.117.013.93.1
Rev LTM5,8343,8733,75967719,79441,7904,853
Op Inc LTM256258341-42,0891,988300
FCF LTM170183366-221,6572,036275
FCF 3Y Avg198290258191,3411,133274
CFO LTM442301495-102,3423,526469
CFO 3Y Avg430372384372,1653,218407

Growth & Margins

AXLPATKVCCVGIAPTVMGAMedian
NameAmerican.Patrick .Visteon Commerci.Aptiv Magna In. 
Rev Chg LTM-6.0%6.1%-4.0%-13.8%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.2%-7.3%3.0%-11.0%7.7%4.0%2.1%
Rev Chg Q0.0%6.1%-6.4%-11.2%3.1%1.8%0.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.0%1.5%-1.6%-3.1%0.8%0.4%0.2%
Op Mgn LTM4.4%6.7%9.1%-0.6%10.6%4.8%5.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.9%7.2%7.9%2.3%9.8%4.6%5.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%-0.3%0.1%-0.1%0.1%-0.0%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM7.6%7.8%13.2%-1.4%11.8%8.4%8.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.2%10.0%9.9%4.6%11.0%7.6%8.8%
FCF/Rev LTM2.9%4.7%9.7%-3.3%8.4%4.9%4.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.3%7.9%6.7%2.2%6.8%2.7%5.0%

Valuation

AXLPATKVCCVGIAPTVMGAMedian
NameAmerican.Patrick .Visteon Commerci.Aptiv Magna In. 
Mkt Cap0.83.52.80.117.013.93.1
P/S0.10.90.90.10.90.30.6
P/EBIT2.814.38.8-19.89.67.18.0
P/E17.027.810.6-1.518.512.915.0
P/CFO1.611.16.6-5.88.03.85.2
Total Yield5.9%5.2%9.4%-68.2%5.4%11.8%5.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg25.5%13.3%8.0%-4.2%6.5%8.6%8.3%
D/E3.80.50.12.30.40.60.5
Net D/E2.80.5-0.11.50.40.50.5

Returns

AXLPATKVCCVGIAPTVMGAMedian
NameAmerican.Patrick .Visteon Commerci.Aptiv Magna In. 
1M Rtn4.2%5.8%-4.7%8.2%-4.5%1.5%2.8%
3M Rtn11.4%-2.8%-16.9%3.0%-1.9%11.1%0.5%
6M Rtn54.8%25.7%23.4%22.9%18.5%39.5%24.6%
12M Rtn-1.9%23.2%7.4%-28.3%40.2%13.8%10.6%
3Y Rtn-35.0%198.4%-31.8%-76.5%-24.7%-8.8%-28.3%
1M Excs Rtn4.3%5.9%-4.7%8.2%-4.5%1.5%2.9%
3M Excs Rtn5.7%-10.0%-24.1%-2.4%-8.3%4.9%-5.3%
6M Excs Rtn40.1%11.0%8.7%8.1%3.8%24.7%9.8%
12M Excs Rtn-13.1%9.4%-4.1%-42.2%27.1%1.4%-1.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-107.4%143.7%-101.4%-146.0%-96.3%-79.2%-98.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Driveline4,1774,064 3,3764,550
Metal Forming2,4542,281 1,6521,845
Corporate and Eliminations00   
Intersegment sales-552-542 -317-669
Casting   0 
Total6,0805,802 4,7115,726


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Driveline2,5542,5422,9263,0363,779
Metal Forming1,7891,9001,5771,6801,900
Corporate and Eliminations1,0131,027 1,200966
Other  1,133  
Total5,3565,4695,6365,9166,645


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity26,890,307
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.8%
Average Daily Volume3,823,292
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.03
Basic Shares Quantity118,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares22.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022217202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021