Dauch (AXL)
Market Price (4/4/2026): $6.1 | Market Cap: $723.5 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Dauch (AXL)
Market Price (4/4/2026): $6.1Market Cap: $723.5 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 16% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Advanced Materials. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.0%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 188% Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 164% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0% Key risksAXL key risks include [1] a product portfolio heavily concentrated on internal combustion engine components vulnerable to the industry's EV transition, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Advanced Materials. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.0%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 188% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 164% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0% |
| Key risksAXL key risks include [1] a product portfolio heavily concentrated on internal combustion engine components vulnerable to the industry's EV transition, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Dauch (AXL) stock has gained about 40% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Strategic Acquisition of Dowlais Group plc significantly expanded market presence and projected synergies.
On February 3, 2026, Dauch Corporation completed the acquisition of Dowlais Group plc, including its GKN Automotive and GKN Powder Metallurgy subsidiaries. This acquisition is expected to yield approximately $300 million in synergies and enhance cash flow, while also expanding Dauch's customer base and geographic reach, particularly in the critical Chinese market.
2. Strong financial outlook and analyst upgrades fueled investor confidence.
Dauch provided robust forward guidance for the full year 2026, projecting sales between $10.3 billion and $10.7 billion, adjusted EBITDA between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion, and adjusted free cash flow between $235 million and $325 million. This positive outlook included anticipated synergy benefits of $50 million to $75 million in 2026. This guidance, along with an increase in EBITDA ex-synergy estimates from $1.521 billion to $1.612 billion, contributed to a favorable re-rating of peer multiples from 4.0x to 5.0x on projected 2026 EBITDA due to strong exposure to the exceeding demand in the U.S. automotive market. Analysts largely maintained a positive stance, with a consensus "Buy" rating from multiple firms as of March 2026, and a median price target of $7.25.
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1. Strategic Acquisition of Dowlais Group plc significantly expanded market presence and projected synergies.
On February 3, 2026, Dauch Corporation completed the acquisition of Dowlais Group plc, including its GKN Automotive and GKN Powder Metallurgy subsidiaries. This acquisition is expected to yield approximately $300 million in synergies and enhance cash flow, while also expanding Dauch's customer base and geographic reach, particularly in the critical Chinese market.
2. Strong financial outlook and analyst upgrades fueled investor confidence.
Dauch provided robust forward guidance for the full year 2026, projecting sales between $10.3 billion and $10.7 billion, adjusted EBITDA between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion, and adjusted free cash flow between $235 million and $325 million. This positive outlook included anticipated synergy benefits of $50 million to $75 million in 2026. This guidance, along with an increase in EBITDA ex-synergy estimates from $1.521 billion to $1.612 billion, contributed to a favorable re-rating of peer multiples from 4.0x to 5.0x on projected 2026 EBITDA due to strong exposure to the exceeding demand in the U.S. automotive market. Analysts largely maintained a positive stance, with a consensus "Buy" rating from multiple firms as of March 2026, and a median price target of $7.25.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.8% change in AXL stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.41 | 6.10 | -4.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,834 | 5,834 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.1 | 17.3 | -4.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 119 | 119 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXL | 40.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 12.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.4% | 28.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.5% change in AXL stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 3.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.01 | 6.10 | 1.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,833 | 5,834 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.7% | 0.7% | -1.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.7 | 17.3 | 3.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 119 | 119 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXL | 49.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 32.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.6% | 37.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 49.9% change in AXL stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.07 | 6.10 | 49.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,125 | 5,834 | -4.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.6% | 0.7% | 25.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.7 | 17.3 | 26.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 118 | 119 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 49.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXL | 121.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 48.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.2% | 49.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.9% change in AXL stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.81 | 6.10 | -21.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,802 | 5,834 | 0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.1% | 0.7% | -35.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.9 | 17.3 | 23.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 115 | 119 | -3.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXL | 15.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 44.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 47.9% | 43.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AXL Return | 12% | -16% | 13% | -34% | 10% | 40% | 8% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -14% | 3% | -1% | 59% | 20% | 90% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AXL Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 38% | 42% | 42% | 71% | 69% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AXL Max Drawdown | -5% | -30% | -18% | -37% | -47% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -33% | -15% | -25% | -20% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DAN, BWA, MGA, CMI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AXL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -75.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 300.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 311 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -71.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 252.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -99.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 10448.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DAN, BWA, MGA, CMI
In The Past
Dauch's stock fell -50.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -50.5% loss requires a 102.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Dauch (AXL)
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, and manufactures driveline and metal forming technologies that supports electric, hybrid, and internal combustion vehicles in the United States, Mexico, South America, China, other Asian countries, and Europe. It operates through Driveline and Metal Forming segments. The Driveline segment offers front and rear axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies, clutch modules, balance shaft systems, disconnecting driveline technology, and electric and hybrid driveline products and systems for light trucks, sport utility vehicles, crossover vehicles, passenger cars, and commercial vehicles. The Metal Forming segment provides axle and transmission shafts, ring and pinion gears, differential gears and assemblies, and connecting rods and variable valve timing products for original equipment manufacturers and tier 1 automotive suppliers. American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. has technology development agreement with Suzhou Inovance Automotive Ltd. and REE Automotive Ltd. American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Detroit, Michigan.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Dauch (AXL):
- The Intel of car drivelines. (AXL supplies critical, engineered components like axles and driveshafts that are essential for a vehicle to operate, similar to how Intel supplies processors for computers.)
- Like a specialized Bosch, but focused on the axles, gears, and driveline systems that make vehicles move. (Bosch is a well-known, diversified automotive supplier; AXL is also an automotive supplier but specializes in core driveline and metal-forming technologies.)
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- Front and Rear Axles: Components that support vehicle weight and transmit power to the wheels.
- Driveshafts: Mechanical components that transmit torque and rotation, typically connecting drive train components.
- Differential Assemblies: Mechanisms that allow wheels on the same axle to rotate at different speeds, crucial for turning.
- Clutch Modules: Units designed to engage and disengage power transmission within a vehicle's driveline system.
- Balance Shaft Systems: Engine components specifically designed to reduce vibration for smoother operation.
- Disconnecting Driveline Technology: Systems that can disengage portions of the driveline to enhance fuel efficiency.
- Electric and Hybrid Driveline Products and Systems: Specialized components and complete systems for the propulsion of electric and hybrid vehicles.
- Axle and Transmission Shafts: Precision-formed metal components used within axles and transmissions for power transfer.
- Ring and Pinion Gears: Essential gears within a differential that change the direction of power and provide a gear ratio.
- Connecting Rods: Critical engine components that link pistons to the crankshaft, converting linear motion to rotary motion.
- Variable Valve Timing Products: Components that optimize the timing of engine valve operations to improve performance and fuel economy.
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Dauch (AXL) sells primarily to other companies, specifically original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and Tier 1 automotive suppliers. Its major customers include some of the world's largest automotive companies.
Based on their latest financial filings, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.'s major customers are:
- General Motors Company (GM)
- Stellantis N.V. (STLA)
- Ford Motor Company (F)
- Volkswagen AG (VWAGY)
- Daimler Truck Holding AG (DTRUY)
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David C. Dauch, Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
David C. Dauch has served as Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of American Axle & Manufacturing (now Dauch Corporation) since 2013, having previously held roles as President & Chief Executive Officer (2012) and President & Chief Operating Officer (2009). He joined the company in 1995 as Manager of Sales Administration. Dauch possesses over 40 years of experience in the automotive industry, beginning his career in 1982 with the former Chrysler Corporation. Prior to joining AAM, he held various operations and sales positions at Collins & Aikman Products Company, where he received the President's Award for leadership and innovation. He also served on the Board of Directors for Collins & Aikman (2002–2007), Horizon Global (2015–2018), REV Group, Inc. (2024–2026), and currently for Terex Corporation (since 2026). Dauch was also a Chief Executive Officer and Director at Metaldyne Performance Group, Inc. in 2017. He holds a B.S. degree in Management from Miami University and an MBA from Michigan State University.
Christopher J. May, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Christopher J. May was appointed Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer in August 2015. He joined American Axle & Manufacturing in 1994 as a Financial Analyst and has since held various financial positions of increasing responsibility, including Manager Financial Reporting, Director of Internal Audit, Assistant Treasurer, and Treasurer. Before his tenure at AAM, May worked as a Senior Accountant for Ernst & Young. He is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) and holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Accounting from Canisius College and a Master of Business Administration degree from the University of Detroit Mercy.
Michael J. Lynch, President & Chief Operating Officer
Michael J. Lynch serves as the President & Chief Operating Officer. His compensation adjustments for this role were effective August 16, 2025. He joined American Axle & Manufacturing in September 1996 and has held numerous finance and operational leadership positions, including Vice President and Controller, Vice President - Driveline Business Performance & Cost Management, and Executive Director & Controller.
Tolga I. Oal, President - Driveline
Tolga I. Oal holds the position of President - Driveline at American Axle & Manufacturing.
Terri M. Kemp, Senior Vice President, Human Resources & Sustainability
Terri M. Kemp is the Senior Vice President, Human Resources & Sustainability. Her compensation adjustments for this role (also referred to as Senior VP & Chief of Staff) were effective August 16, 2025.
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The key risks to American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL), also known as Dauch, include the automotive industry's transition to electric vehicles (EVs), declining production volumes and the cyclical nature of the automotive industry, and a high debt load.- Transition to Electric Vehicles (EVs): AXL's primary business revolves around designing and manufacturing driveline and metal forming technologies predominantly for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The global shift towards electric vehicles poses a significant long-term risk, as it could render some of AXL's core product lines obsolete or less relevant. While AXL is investing in research and development for EV components and has secured new EV-related business, there's a substantial challenge in adapting its product portfolio and manufacturing capabilities quickly enough to maintain market share against agile competitors specializing in electric drivetrain technologies.
- Declining Production Volumes and Cyclical Nature of the Automotive Industry: As a major supplier to automotive manufacturers, AXL is highly susceptible to fluctuations in vehicle production volumes. Anticipated declines in production in key markets, particularly Europe and North America, directly impact AXL's order book, revenue streams, and profit margins. The inherent cyclicality of the automotive industry further amplifies this risk, as prolonged periods of reduced consumer demand or economic uncertainties can strain the company's financial resources.
- High Debt Load: American Axle & Manufacturing has consistently faced challenges due to a high debt load and leverage ratios. This significant financial obligation can limit the company's flexibility, particularly in its ability to fund necessary research and development for EV technologies and retooling of manufacturing facilities. A high debt level can also make AXL more vulnerable during periods of declining production volumes or broader economic downturns, potentially impacting its profitability and growth potential.
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The rapid and widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally, which poses a significant threat to the demand for many of Dauch's traditional components designed specifically for internal combustion engine (ICE) and conventional hybrid vehicles.
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The addressable markets for Dauch's (AXL) main products and services are substantial, with global market sizes identified for driveline technologies, electric vehicle driveline systems, automotive axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies, and metal forming technologies.
Driveline Technologies
- The global automotive driveline market was estimated at approximately USD 56.7 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to grow to USD 94.5 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.0%. Other estimates place the global automotive driveline market at USD 257.40 billion in 2021, projected to reach USD 545.8 billion by 2031 with a CAGR of 7.7%. Furthermore, another report states the market size at USD 432 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 573.05 billion by 2030, advancing at a 5.66% CAGR.
Electric Vehicle Driveline Systems
- The global electric vehicle driveline market size was valued at USD 13.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 28.1 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.4%. Another estimate indicates the market for driveline systems for electric vehicles is expected to grow from USD 38.11 billion in 2025 to USD 57.05 billion by 2031 at a 6.95% CAGR.
Automotive Axles
- The global automotive axle market size was valued at USD 66.23 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 81.63 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 2.35%. Another report estimates the global automotive axle market size at USD 10.47 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 28.48 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 11.77%. A different source indicates the market size to be USD 21.73 billion in 2025, expanding to USD 26.85 billion by 2030 at a 4.32% CAGR.
Automotive Driveshafts
- The global automotive drive shaft market size was valued at USD 74.29 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 122.95 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 6.5%. Other estimates indicate the global automotive drive shaft market size was valued at USD 80.46 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 123.47 billion in 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.3%. Furthermore, the market size was estimated at USD 92.4 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 148.7 billion by the end of 2034, growing at a CAGR of 5.4%.
Automotive Differential Assemblies
- The global differential assembly market size was valued at USD 22.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 35.83 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 5.15%. Similarly, the global automotive differential system market size was estimated at USD 22.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 34.33 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.7%. Another report valued the global automotive differential market at USD 24.79 billion in 2024 and projected it to surpass around USD 38.53 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 4.51%.
Metal Forming Technologies
- The global metal forming for automotive market size was valued at USD 340.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 493.8 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 3.46%. Another source states the global metal forming for automotive market size was valued at USD 194.90 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 248.82 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 3.10%.
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```htmlAmerican Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and market trends:
- Expansion in Electric Vehicle (EV) Driveline Technology: AXL is strategically focusing on the growing electric vehicle market by developing and supplying EV driveline components and systems. The company's new business backlog for 2024-2026 is approximately $600 million, with 50% attributed to electrification. AXL is set to supply electric-beam axles to a Chinese OEM, with a launch scheduled for 2025, and has secured additional EV component business. Furthermore, the company is supplying final drive units for a four-wheel-drive plug-in hybrid SUV program for DongFeng in China and shipping EV components to VinFast. AXL will also supply electric drives and rear electric beam axles for Scout Motors' new Traveler SUV and Terra truck. This focus positions electrification as a key driver for expansion into new segments.
- New Business Backlog and Key Customer Program Launches: A significant portion of AXL's anticipated revenue growth stems from its substantial new business backlog and ongoing program launches with global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The company has a projected new business backlog of approximately $600 million for the 2024-2026 period, with about $300 million of launches expected in 2024. This backlog includes key programs such as GM's mid-size truck and a Chery SUV in China. AXL has also secured contracts exceeding $10 billion in lifetime revenues for next-generation full-size truck axles with multiple customers and a contract extension to supply power transfer units for the Ford Maverick and Bronco Sport vehicles.
- Acquisition and Integration of Dowlais Group: The acquisition of Dowlais Group plc is a transformational event expected to significantly boost AXL's revenue. This merger, valued at approximately $1.44 billion, received stockholder approval in July 2025 and is slated for completion by the fourth quarter of 2025. The acquisition is anticipated to nearly double AXL's revenue to approximately $12 billion and generate $300 million in annual synergies. The combined entity is targeting $7.5 billion in revenue by 2026 and is expected to reach $10.3 billion to $10.7 billion in full-year sales for 2026, including a partial contribution from Dowlais. The integration aims to diversify AXL's customer base, product portfolio, and geographical presence, reducing revenue concentration from its largest customer and increasing its global footprint.
- Global Market Diversification and Penetration: AXL's extensive global presence and strategy to expand into new regions and with new OEMs will contribute to revenue growth. The acquisition of Dowlais Group is expected to enhance geographic diversification, with North America's revenue share of the combined entity decreasing. The company is actively working to expand its product portfolio, driving opportunities with new OEMs and regions. While specific quarterly international revenue forecasts can fluctuate, the overall strategic emphasis on leveraging its global footprint and adapting to various economic cycles is a long-term growth driver.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (2021-2025)
Share Repurchases
- American Axle & Manufacturing repurchased 6.25% Notes due 2026 in 2025 as part of its capital management activities, aiming to reduce net debt.
Share Issuance
- American Axle & Manufacturing announced a recommended cash and share combination with Dowlais Group PLC in July 2025, which is expected to involve the issuance of shares.
- As of February 11, 2025, American Axle & Manufacturing had 117,581,028 shares of common stock outstanding.
Inbound Investments
- American Axle & Manufacturing received a five-year, 100% State Essential Services Assessment (SESA) exemption from the Michigan Economic Development Corporation for a $132.9 million investment in upgrades at its Three Rivers, Michigan facility, which was prioritized over a facility in Mexico in 2021.
Outbound Investments
- American Axle & Manufacturing expects to complete the sale of its commercial vehicle axle business in India for $65 million in the first half of 2025.
- The company is pursuing a combination with Dowlais Group PLC, a significant acquisition expected to close by the end of 2025, with estimated acquisition-related costs of approximately $55 million for AXL in 2025.
- In 2022, American Axle & Manufacturing completed the acquisition of Techfor, contributing an additional $84 million in fourth-quarter sales and enhancing its friction and surface-treatment capabilities for e-propulsion.
Capital Expenditures
- American Axle & Manufacturing's capital expenditures were $248.0 million in 2024 and $194.6 million in 2023.
- For 2025, the company projects capital expenditures to be approximately 5% of sales, equating to about $280 million.
- These expenditures are primarily focused on supporting global program launches in 2025 and 2026, increasing program capacity, and investing in next-generation truck platforms and advanced manufacturing processes, including at its Three Rivers, Michigan facility.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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| 03272026 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 53.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.3 |
| Rev LTM | 14,316 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,322 |
| FCF LTM | 1,208 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 834 |
| CFO LTM | 1,648 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,476 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.3 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 17.8 |
| P/E | 33.4 |
| P/CFO | 7.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 104.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 93.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 27.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 66.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 27.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driveline | 4,177 | 4,064 | 3,376 | 4,550 | |
| Metal Forming | 2,454 | 2,281 | 1,652 | 1,845 | |
| Corporate and Eliminations | 0 | 0 | |||
| Intersegment sales | -552 | -542 | -317 | -669 | |
| Casting | 0 | ||||
| Total | 6,080 | 5,802 | 4,711 | 5,726 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driveline | 2,554 | 2,542 | 2,926 | 3,036 | 3,779 |
| Metal Forming | 1,789 | 1,900 | 1,577 | 1,680 | 1,900 |
| Corporate and Eliminations | 1,013 | 1,027 | 1,200 | 966 | |
| Other | 1,133 | ||||
| Total | 5,356 | 5,469 | 5,636 | 5,916 | 6,645 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $9.00 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/29/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $7.04 | $5.62 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 27.8% | 60.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 66.2% | 53.2% |
| Downside Capture | -341.87 | 108.97 |
| Upside Capture | 290.26 | 185.33 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 8.2% | 44.1% |
AXL Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | � | -0.16 | 0.31 | 0.92 | 1.23 | 1.35 |
| Up Beta | � | -0.01 | 1.11 | -0.07 | 1.10 | 1.22 |
| Down Beta | � | 0.26 | 0.39 | 1.56 | 1.42 | 1.28 |
| Up Capture | 0% | 1% | 110% | 159% | 219% | 261% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 0 | 3 | 15 | 48 | 113 | 343 |
| Down Capture | -0% | -69% | -88% | 37% | 93% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 0 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 93 | 350 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AXL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXL | 132.5% | 54.4% | 2.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 9.1% | 23.7% | 0.31 | 50.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 19.0% | 0.67 | 48.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.5% | 28.0% | 1.46 | -0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 16.2% | 17.7% | 0.77 | 22.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 16.5% | 0.04 | 38.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.5% | 44.0% | -0.42 | 19.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AXL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXL | -1.1% | 52.1% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.3% | 23.7% | 0.23 | 48.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 49.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.7% | 17.8% | 1.00 | 2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 14.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 42.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.9% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 18.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AXL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXL | -4.7% | 59.6% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 21.9% | 0.50 | 51.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 53.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.0% | 15.9% | 0.73 | -0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 22.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 43.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 13.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/7/2025 | 6.2% | 1.0% | -2.6% |
| 8/8/2025 | 15.3% | 27.1% | 33.0% |
| 5/2/2025 | 5.0% | 13.9% | 13.9% |
| 1/29/2025 | 3.2% | -2.3% | -5.3% |
| 11/8/2024 | 8.8% | 1.0% | 10.0% |
| 8/9/2024 | 4.8% | 1.9% | -5.8% |
| 5/3/2024 | 2.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% |
| 2/16/2024 | -3.2% | -17.1% | -20.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 4.9% | 18.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -11.0% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 39.9% | 27.1% | 116.4% |
| Max Negative | -14.2% | -21.7% | -57.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/11/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/7/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Sales | 5.80 Bil | 5.85 Bil | 5.90 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.85 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 710.00 Mil | 727.50 Mil | 745.00 Mil | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 720.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | 180.00 Mil | 195.00 Mil | 210.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 195.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Prior: Q2 2025 Earnings Reported 8/8/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 5.75 Bil | 5.85 Bil | 5.95 Bil | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 5.80 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 695.00 Mil | 720.00 Mil | 745.00 Mil | 2.1% | Raised | Guidance: 705.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | 175.00 Mil | 195.00 Mil | 215.00 Mil | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 190.00 Mil for 2025 | |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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