Avalon (AWX)
Market Price (2/15/2026): $2.68 | Market Cap: $10.4 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Avalon (AWX)
Market Price (2/15/2026): $2.68Market Cap: $10.4 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 294% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Rare Earth Elements, Advanced Battery Components, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 57x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.0% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 101% | ||
| Key risksAWX key risks include [1] regulatory and legal challenges from suspended well operations, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Rare Earth Elements, Advanced Battery Components, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 294% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 57x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.0% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 101% |
| Key risksAWX key risks include [1] regulatory and legal challenges from suspended well operations, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Mixed Financial Performance: While Avalon (AWX) reported a slight year-over-year increase in net operating revenues and net income for the third quarter of 2025, announced on November 7, 2025, the company's overall net profit for the twelve months ending September 30, 2025, showed an 81.71% decrease. This combination of some quarterly improvement against a backdrop of weaker longer-term profitability and previous quarterly losses in 2025 likely created a balanced sentiment, preventing a strong directional move in the stock.
2. Absence of Significant Catalysts or Detractors: The period from October 31, 2025, to February 1, 2026, did not feature major news or corporate actions that would typically drive substantial stock price changes. While Q3 2025 earnings were released, they did not represent a dramatic shift in the company's trajectory, and there were no other highly impactful announcements regarding new contracts, major operational changes, or significant legal resolutions during this timeframe.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.2% change in AWX stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.74 | 2.68 | -2.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 78 | 80 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 49.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 90.5 | 58.1 | -35.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4 | 4 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AWX | -4.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.0% | 16.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.3% | 15.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.5% change in AWX stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 358.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.59 | 2.68 | 3.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 81 | 80 | -1.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.0% | 0.2% | -77.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.7 | 58.1 | 358.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4 | 4 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AWX | 1.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.2% | 1.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 15.1% | 15.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -25.8% change in AWX stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -80.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.61 | 2.68 | -25.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 84 | 80 | -5.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.2% | 0.2% | -80.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.3 | 58.1 | 305.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4 | 4 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -25.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AWX | -27.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.3% | 2.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 27.2% | 8.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.3% change in AWX stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -7.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.80 | 2.68 | -4.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 77 | 80 | 3.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.1 | -7.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4 | 4 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AWX | -6.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 1.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 78.5% | 7.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AWX Return | 39% | -24% | -13% | 62% | -30% | -0% | 3% |
| Peers Return | 39% | -1% | 24% | 22% | 3% | 4% | 121% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AWX Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 42% | 60% | 62% | 53% | 80% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AWX Max Drawdown | -2% | -30% | -32% | -15% | -39% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -18% | -5% | -3% | -9% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WM, RSG, WCN, CLH, CWST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AWX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -66.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 200.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -81.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 451.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -90.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1002.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to WM, RSG, WCN, CLH, CWST
In The Past
Avalon's stock fell -66.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/12/2021. A -66.7% loss requires a 200.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Avalon (AWX)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Simon Property Group for apartments.
- Hilton for apartment communities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Apartment Community Development: Designing and constructing new multi-family residential properties, primarily for rental purposes.
- Apartment Community Acquisition: Identifying and purchasing existing multi-family residential properties to expand its portfolio.
- Property Management Services: Operating, maintaining, and leasing its portfolio of apartment communities to provide rental housing for residents.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The company Avalon (AWX), known as AvalonBay Communities Inc., is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) that develops, acquires, owns, and manages multifamily apartment communities. Therefore, its primary customers are individuals who rent apartments, rather than other businesses.
Based on the types of properties and the high-barrier-to-entry coastal markets AvalonBay serves, its customers can be broadly categorized as follows:
- Young Urban Professionals: This category includes singles and couples, often early in their careers, who seek amenity-rich, well-located apartments in urban or dense suburban areas with convenient access to employment centers, public transportation, and entertainment. They typically value modern living spaces and a vibrant community atmosphere.
- Affluent Residents and Downsizers: This group comprises individuals and couples, frequently empty nesters, who are looking for a convenient, low-maintenance lifestyle in high-quality communities located in desirable areas. They may be transitioning from homeownership and appreciate premium amenities, services, and prime locations.
- Relocating Professionals: This category includes individuals or families moving for work who prefer the flexibility and convenience of renting a high-quality apartment in prime locations rather than immediately purchasing a home. They often require well-maintained properties with good amenities and a seamless leasing experience.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ronald E. Klingle, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Klingle was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Avalon Holdings Corporation in February 2011 and has served as Chairman since June 1998. He is recognized as the central figure who has guided Avalon Holdings Corporation since its formal incorporation in 1998, evolving from earlier businesses. His role encompasses leading the Board of Directors, overseeing corporate governance, and driving the company's long-term strategic planning. As CEO, he is responsible for the overall operational and financial performance, setting strategic direction, and ensuring the successful execution of business objectives.
Michael Havalo, CFO, Treasurer, Secretary, and Director
Mr. Havalo serves as the Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, Secretary, and a Director of Avalon Holdings Corporation.
Kenneth J. McMahon, Chief Executive Officer and President of American Waste Management Services Inc.
Mr. McMahon, born in 1953, brings decades of leadership experience and a deep understanding of the waste management industry. As CEO and President of American Waste Management Services, Inc., a key subsidiary of Avalon Holdings Corporation, he is responsible for the strategic direction, operational success, and overall performance of this entity. His leadership focuses on setting the company's vision, fostering a strong corporate culture, driving innovation, and ensuring a commitment to environmental responsibility and customer service.
Frances R. Klingle, Chief Administrative Officer
Ms. Klingle, born in 1947, holds the position of Chief Administrative Officer for Avalon Holdings Corporation. She is responsible for overseeing the day-to-day operational functions that ensure the smooth and efficient running of the corporation. Her responsibilities typically include managing human resources, administrative support, facilities management, and the implementation of corporate policies and procedures.
Christine M. Bell, President of Avalon Golf & Country Club and Director
Ms. Bell serves as the President of Avalon Golf & Country Club and is a Director of Avalon Holdings Corporation.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) include significant regulatory and legal challenges within its waste management services, its overall financial health and liquidity, and the high volatility and low liquidity of its stock.
- Regulatory and Legal Challenges in Waste Management: Avalon faces ongoing regulatory issues and legal proceedings, particularly concerning the suspension of operations at its AWMS #2 saltwater disposal well. These prolonged legal matters introduce operational and contingent liability risks for a core segment of the business.
- Financial Health and Liquidity: The company has reported a working capital deficit, and its interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Furthermore, Avalon carries material long-term debt with a balloon structure, concentrating refinancing and cash-flow risks. Its current ratio suggests that it may not have sufficient short-term capital to meet its financial commitments when due.
- Stock Volatility and Low Liquidity: Avalon's stock is characterized by high volatility and low liquidity, largely due to a deep concentration of retail ownership (over 93%) and a lack of large, stable institutional investment. This makes the stock highly susceptible to market sentiment and herd behavior, leading to increased idiosyncratic volatility and a lack of professional cushion from analyst coverage during market turbulence.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Avalon Holdings Corporation (AWX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives across its two primary business segments: Waste Management Services and Golf and Related Operations. Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Avalon: * Growth in Waste Management Services: Avalon's waste management segment aims to increase revenue and gain market share through internal growth. The company leverages its flexibility and relationships with various disposal facilities and transporters to achieve this. Recent performance in Q3 2025 indicates improved business activity and higher sales volumes in this segment. * Expansion and Enhancement of Golf and Related Operations: The Golf and Related Operations segment contributes significantly to Avalon's revenue. Growth in this area is anticipated through increased business activity and strategic pricing for services at its properties, including The Grand Resort and country clubs. Ongoing capital expenditures are directed towards "hotel room remodeling and other improvements," which are likely to enhance facilities, attract more customers, and support potential price increases in the hospitality offerings. * Capitalizing on Regional Economic Activity: Avalon's future growth strategy is closely tied to optimizing its existing assets and leveraging regional economic activity within its primary operating areas of Northeastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania. A healthy regional economy is expected to drive demand for both its environmental services and hospitality offerings. * Strategic Acquisitions and Business Cultivation: As a diversified holding company, Avalon's core mission includes identifying, acquiring, and cultivating businesses that demonstrate strong market potential and robust financial performance. While a long-term strategy, successful strategic acquisitions could significantly contribute to revenue growth over the next 2-3 years by expanding Avalon's service offerings or market reach.AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Expenditures
- For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, Avalon Holdings Corporation's capital expenditures were $1.283 million.
- In 2022, expected aggregate capital expenditures were projected to be between $3.5 million and $4.5 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures in 2022 included continued hotel room renovations at The Grand Resort, improvements to the clubhouse at Avalon Field Club at New Castle, building improvements, and equipment purchases.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Avalon Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 191.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 27.9 |
| Rev LTM | 7,715 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,236 |
| FCF LTM | 831 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 768 |
| CFO LTM | 1,615 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,510 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 27.9 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 22.0 |
| P/E | 37.9 |
| P/CFO | 16.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 45.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -19.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $2.63 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/23/1998 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -47.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $2.68 | $2.61 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -1.7% | 0.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.6% | 102.0% |
| Downside Capture | 44.61 | -27.69 |
| Upside Capture | -30.15 | -48.47 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.30 | -0.54 | 0.91 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| Up Beta | -0.35 | -1.37 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.19 | 0.03 |
| Down Beta | -0.10 | -0.11 | 1.74 | 2.93 | 0.89 | 0.56 |
| Up Capture | -25% | -34% | 45% | -53% | -25% | -1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 17 | 26 | 56 | 104 | 300 |
| Down Capture | -68% | -99% | 58% | -168% | -54% | -34% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 22 | 32 | 61 | 123 | 340 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AWX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWX | -23.5% | 102.3% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 27.9% | 19.2% | 1.15 | 9.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 19.4% | 0.55 | 2.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.3% | 25.3% | 2.17 | 0.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.0% | 16.7% | 0.24 | -4.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.9% | 16.6% | 0.28 | 3.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.8% | 44.9% | -0.65 | -2.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AWX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWX | -4.9% | 69.8% | 0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 15.9% | 17.2% | 0.74 | 12.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 10.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.0% | 1.06 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.5% | 18.9% | 0.44 | 2.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 8.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.3% | 57.2% | 0.37 | 5.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AWX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWX | 4.5% | 82.1% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 15.3% | 19.8% | 0.68 | 10.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 9.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.3% | 15.6% | 0.82 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 17.6% | 0.38 | 3.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.4% | 20.7% | 0.27 | 8.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 6.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/10/2022 | 10-K |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.