Tearsheet

AeroVironment (AVAV)


Market Price (2/12/2026): $244.05 | Market Cap: $12.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

AeroVironment (AVAV)


Market Price (2/12/2026): $244.05
Market Cap: $12.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 80%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -70 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.1%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.8x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Advanced Air Mobility, Show more.
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.7%
4  Key risks
AVAV key risks include [1] heavy dependence on government spending, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 80%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Drone Technology, Advanced Air Mobility, Show more.
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -70 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.1%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.8x
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.7%
7 Key risks
AVAV key risks include [1] heavy dependence on government spending, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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AeroVironment (AVAV) stock has lost about 35% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Disappointing Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Report. AeroVironment announced its second-quarter fiscal year 2026 results on December 9, 2025, reporting an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.44, which significantly missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.85 by 48.24%. While revenue increased year-over-year to $472.51 million, it also slightly missed the consensus estimate of $477.43 million. Additionally, income from operations for the quarter decreased to $7.0 million from $25.2 million in the prior year, primarily due to higher selling, general and administrative (SG&A) and research and development (R&D) expenses.

2. U.S. Military Contract Stoppage and Delivery Delays. In late January 2026, reports emerged of an unexpected work stoppage on a U.S. military project, specifically concerning the BADGER unit for the Space Force, which was predicted to have initial deliveries in early 2026 but now faces potential delays. This news was a significant catalyst for a sharp decline in the stock, contributing to a 23% loss over a five-day period in late January 2026.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -34.2% change in AVAV stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -44.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252112026Change
Stock Price ($)369.91243.42-34.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,0861,37026.2%
P/S Multiple16.08.8-44.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4750-5.7%
Cumulative Contribution-34.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AVAV-34.2% 
Market (SPY)1.5%47.7%
Sector (XLI)12.8%46.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -9.0% change in AVAV stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -43.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120252112026Change
Stock Price ($)267.64243.42-9.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8211,37066.9%
P/S Multiple9.28.8-3.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2850-43.5%
Cumulative Contribution-9.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AVAV-9.0% 
Market (SPY)9.8%41.3%
Sector (XLI)15.5%41.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 35.1% change in AVAV stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)13120252112026Change
Stock Price ($)180.15243.4235.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)7611,37079.9%
P/S Multiple6.68.833.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2850-43.7%
Cumulative Contribution35.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AVAV35.1% 
Market (SPY)16.0%37.1%
Sector (XLI)27.7%38.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 173.6% change in AVAV stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 209.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)13120232112026Change
Stock Price ($)88.97243.42173.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4431,370209.4%
P/S Multiple5.08.876.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2550-49.9%
Cumulative Contribution173.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AVAV173.6% 
Market (SPY)76.6%31.0%
Sector (XLI)79.1%32.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AVAV Return-29%38%47%22%57%9%203%
Peers Return17%10%16%16%58%18%221%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%1%85%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AVAV Win Rate42%58%67%50%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate52%53%52%55%60%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%100% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AVAV Max Drawdown-33%-13%-4%-6%-27%-2% 
Peers Max Drawdown-12%-17%-17%-8%-10%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KTOS, NOC, LMT, RTX, TXT. See AVAV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/11/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAVAVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven156.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven672 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-35.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven54.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven83 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-58.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven141.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven506 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-51.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,832 days1,480 days

Compare to KTOS, NOC, LMT, RTX, TXT

In The Past

AeroVironment's stock fell -61.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -61.0% loss requires a 156.5% gain to breakeven.

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About AeroVironment (AVAV)

AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses. It operates in two segments, Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS). The company supplies UAS, tactical missile systems, and related services primarily to organizations within the U.S. Department of Defense and to international allied governments. It also designs, engineers, tools, and manufactures unmanned aerial and aircraft systems, including airborne platforms, payloads and payload integration, ground control systems, and ground support equipment and other items and services related to ISR services. In addition, the company offers small UAS products, including spare equipment, alternative payload modules, batteries, chargers, repair services, and customer support, as well as multiple aircraft, hand-held ground control system, and spare parts and accessories. Further, it develops high-altitude pseudo-satellite UAS systems. The company was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.

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  • The military's DJI for tactical drones and loitering munitions.
  • A specialized Lockheed Martin, focused exclusively on advanced tactical unmanned aircraft systems for defense.

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AeroVironment (AVAV) Major Products:

  • Tactical Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS): These small, portable drones are used for military reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition in various operational environments.
  • Loitering Munition Systems: These unmanned aerial vehicles are designed to loiter over an area and provide precision strike capabilities against identified targets.
  • Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs): These robotic systems are used for hazardous duty operations, including explosive ordnance disposal (EOD), reconnaissance, and material handling.
  • High-Altitude Pseudo-Satellite (HAPS) Solutions: AeroVironment develops advanced stratospheric aircraft technology aimed at providing persistent, high-altitude communication and observation platforms.

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AeroVironment (AVAV) primarily sells its advanced unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), tactical missile systems, and related services to government entities, particularly defense organizations, rather than directly to individuals or a multitude of commercial companies. Therefore, its major customers fall into the following categories:

  • U.S. Government: This is AeroVironment's largest customer, consistently accounting for a significant majority of its net revenues (e.g., typically over 60% in recent fiscal years). Sales to the U.S. Government include various agencies and branches of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), such as:

    • U.S. Army
    • U.S. Marine Corps
    • U.S. Air Force
    • U.S. Navy
    • U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM)

    The U.S. Government is not a public company, so there is no symbol.

  • Allied Foreign Governments: AeroVironment also sells its products to various allied governments internationally. These international sales to foreign governments represent a substantial portion of their remaining revenue. These are sovereign entities, not public companies.

  • Commercial Customers: While a smaller portion of their overall revenue compared to government sales, AeroVironment does have commercial customers. However, specific commercial company names are not typically disclosed as "major customers" in their public filings unless they individually represent a significant portion of revenue, which is not the case for any single commercial entity for AVAV.

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Wahid Nawabi Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer

Wahid Nawabi has served as Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of AeroVironment since 2016, becoming Chairman of the Board in September 2021. He joined the company in 2011 as Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Efficient Energy Systems (EES) business segment. Before joining AeroVironment, Nawabi spent 16 years at American Power Conversion Corporation (APC) in various leadership roles, including Vice President of the enterprise business segment. He was instrumental in growing APC from $50 million to over $2.4 billion in annual revenue, which culminated in its sale to Schneider Electric for $6.1 billion, marking the largest acquisition in Schneider Electric's history. He holds a bachelor's degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Maryland at College Park.

Kevin McDonnell Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

Kevin McDonnell was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of AeroVironment in February 2020. With over 30 years of experience in financial, IT, and HR leadership, he previously served as CFO of JAMS, Inc., where he contributed to nearly doubling the company's revenue and EBITDA. McDonnell held senior financial positions at Teradata Corporation during a period of significant growth, and as CFO of Digital Insight, he was key in substantially increasing annual revenue, taking the company public, and overseeing three acquisitions. He is also noted as the founder of DoubleBeam, Inc., established in 2011. He earned a J.D. from Loyola Law School and a Bachelor of Arts degree in Business Administration from Loyola Marymount University.

Brad Truesdell Chief Operations Officer

Brad Truesdell has served as AeroVironment's Chief Operations Officer since May 2025, bringing over 25 years of military and defense industry experience to the role. Prior to joining AeroVironment, he founded Tomahawk Robotics in 2018, a company specializing in AI-enabled robotic control systems, which AeroVironment acquired in 2023. His career also includes various leadership positions at Harris Corporation.

Scott Bowman Chief Technology Officer & Senior Vice President of Global Engineering

Scott Bowman became AeroVironment's Chief Technology Officer & Senior Vice President of Global Engineering in 2025. He possesses over 18 years of experience in technical leadership and engineering management, with expertise spanning robotics, controls, RF systems, networking, and software development. Bowman joined AeroVironment in 2023 following the acquisition of Tomahawk Robotics, where he played a crucial role as Product Line Manager in unifying AeroVironment's Ground Control Station (GCS) vision.

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Here are the key risks to AeroVironment's business:
  1. Dependence on Government Spending and Regulatory/Political Risks: AeroVironment's financial health is heavily reliant on government spending, particularly from the U.S. Department of Defense and foreign military sales. Approximately 35% to 75% of its revenue comes from government procurement. This exposes the company to significant risks such as changes in government policies, fluctuations in defense budgets, delays in contract awards, and international relations. Export limitations, especially concerning advanced drone systems, could also constrain international demand.
  2. Profitability Concerns and Integration Challenges: Despite robust revenue growth, AeroVironment has reported net losses in recent periods. This is largely attributed to increased costs of sales, significant intangible amortization, and other deal-related expenses stemming from its strategic acquisition of BlueHalo. Operational inefficiencies, including challenges from the rollout of a new ERP system and disruptions from government shutdowns, have also impacted gross margins and overall profitability. The company has even lowered its full-year earnings guidance due to these integration and operational issues.
  3. Highly Competitive Landscape and Valuation Concerns: The defense technology industry in which AeroVironment operates is highly competitive, requiring continuous innovation to maintain market share against both established and emerging players. Additionally, several analyses indicate that AeroVironment's stock trades at high valuation multiples (e.g., P/E ratio of 172.04 compared to an industry average of 20.36), suggesting that much of its anticipated future growth is already factored into its current stock price. This elevated valuation leaves minimal room for execution errors.

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1. Proliferation of Low-Cost, Commercially-Derived Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and Loitering Munitions: The rapid development and battlefield deployment of inexpensive, adaptable, and often commercially-derived UAS and loitering munitions by numerous global players and even non-state actors is a clear emerging threat. These systems challenge traditional defense contractors like AeroVironment by offering highly attritable, mass-producible alternatives to specialized tactical UAS and missile systems. This trend forces AeroVironment to compete on price, speed of innovation, and expendability, potentially eroding market share for their higher-cost, specialized solutions and increasing the demand for counter-UAS technologies.

2. Rapid Expansion and Enhanced Capabilities of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Satellite Constellations: The accelerating deployment and increasing capabilities of large LEO satellite constellations (e.g., Starlink, Kuiper) for global, high-bandwidth, low-latency communication and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) present a direct emerging threat to AeroVironment's High-Altitude Pseudo-Satellite (HAPS) systems. While HAPS offers localized persistence, LEO constellations provide increasingly robust and widespread coverage, potentially offering a more scalable and cost-effective alternative for many applications previously targeted by HAPS, thereby limiting the market potential or unique value proposition of AeroVironment's HAPS offerings.

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AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) operates in several key markets, primarily focusing on unmanned systems and related technologies. The addressable markets for its main products and services are significant and include:

  • Total Addressable Market (TAM): According to management estimates, AeroVironment's total addressable market is expected to exceed $75 billion by fiscal year 2030. This global market includes approximately $23 billion in space technology, $17 billion in defensive systems, $15 billion in uncrewed systems, and $10 billion in offensive systems. These figures reflect budgets already being funded across NATO and allied nations.
  • Loitering Munitions: The global loitering munition market was estimated at USD 4.30 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 6.26 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% from 2025 to 2030. North America held the largest share of this market in 2024, with Asia Pacific showing rapid growth. Other estimates place the global market at approximately USD 635.88 million in 2025, forecasted to reach USD 1,066.43 million by 2030 with a CAGR of 10.89%.
  • High Altitude Pseudo-Satellites (HAPS): The global High Altitude Pseudo-Satellite (HAPS) market was valued at approximately USD 0.936 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 8.076 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 21.64% from 2025 to 2035. Another estimate places the market at USD 85.30 million in 2025, expanding to USD 210.33 million by 2030 at a 19.78% CAGR. North America accounted for 33.97% of the HAPS market revenue in 2024, with Asia-Pacific projected for the fastest growth.
  • Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) / Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (SUAS): The global tactical UAV market was valued at USD 4.26 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 10.93 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 10.47% during 2025-2033. Another source forecasts the market at USD 6.19 billion in 2025, advancing to USD 11.40 billion by 2030 with a 12.97% CAGR. North America dominates this market, holding over 45.0% market share in 2024, with the United States alone accounting for around 92.40% of the North American market in 2024.
  • Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs): The global unmanned ground vehicles market was valued at USD 2,979.7 million in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 4,472.1 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.1% during the forecast period (2024–2030). Another assessment values the market at USD 3.94 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 8.80 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 9.5% from 2025 to 2034. North America held the highest revenue share, over 41%, in 2024, with the U.S. market estimated at USD 1.13 billion in 2025, projected to be around USD 2.58 billion by 2034.

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AeroVironment (AVAV) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:

  1. Strong Demand for Loitering Munition Systems (LMS): The company anticipates continued robust demand for its Loitering Munition Systems, especially the Switchblade 300 and 600. The Loitering Munition Systems segment was a primary growth driver in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, with revenue increasing by 68% from the same quarter last fiscal year. Recent contract wins, such as the U.S. Army's $1 billion IDIQ contract, and the selection of Switchblade 600 for Tranche 1 of the U.S. DOD's Replicator initiative, further underscore this growth. AeroVironment has also expanded its production capacity to meet this increasing customer demand.
  2. Strategic Acquisition and Integration of BlueHalo: The acquisition of BlueHalo is a significant driver of future revenue. This acquisition closed in May 2025 and is expected to substantially enhance AeroVironment's capabilities in high-priority defense areas, including space, cyber, and directed energy. The integration of BlueHalo contributed significantly to revenue in Q1 2026, adding $235.2 million and boosting overall revenue by 140% year-over-year. This strategic move positions AeroVironment as a next-generation defense tech prime with an all-domain portfolio.
  3. Growing Backlog and Bookings: AeroVironment has demonstrated a healthy and increasing funded backlog and strong bookings, providing excellent visibility into future revenue. The company reported a record backlog of $1.1 billion in Q1 2026, up from $726.6 million, and secured $1.2 billion in total bookings in fiscal year 2025. This substantial backlog indicates sustained customer demand for its innovative and battle-proven solutions.
  4. Expansion of Addressable Market and Diversified Portfolio: AeroVironment is actively expanding its addressable market, with plans to reach at least $75 billion by fiscal year 2030. The company's diversified portfolio across air, land, sea, space, and cyber, combined with its ability to scale manufacturing, positions it well to capture growing demand in the defense technology sector. This multi-pronged business model, encompassing various advanced technologies, is expected to fuel continued growth.

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Share Repurchases

  • AeroVironment has not reported significant dollar amounts of share repurchases over the last 3-5 years.

Share Issuance

  • In July 2025, AeroVironment completed a public offering of 3,528,226 shares of its common stock at $248.00 per share, generating approximately $875.0 million in gross proceeds.
  • Concurrently in July 2025, the company completed a public offering of $747.5 million aggregate principal amount of 0% convertible senior notes due 2030.
  • The net proceeds from these offerings, totaling approximately $1.47 billion, are expected to be used for debt repayment and general corporate purposes, including increasing manufacturing capacity.

Outbound Investments

  • In February 2021, AeroVironment acquired Progeny Systems Corporation's Intelligent Systems Group (ISG) for $30 million in cash, with a potential earnout of up to $6 million over three years.
  • AeroVironment completed the acquisition of BlueHalo for approximately $4.1 billion in an all-stock transaction in May 2025, significantly expanding its capabilities in space, cyber, and directed energy.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 are projected to be $60-$70 million, primarily to complete the Utah build-out.
  • The company's capital expenditure budget is typically around 5% of annual revenue.
  • Increased CapEx guidance for FY2026 reflects accelerated investment plans in key growth areas such as space communications, directed energy, counter-UAS, and unmanned systems to scale production capacity.

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Unique Key

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Peer Comparisons

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Financials

AVAVKTOSNOCLMTRTXTXTMedian
NameAeroViro.Kratos D.Northrop.Lockheed.RTX Textron  
Mkt Price243.4287.78678.83628.70196.5197.28219.96
Mkt Cap12.115.096.8145.2264.317.357.0
Rev LTM1,3701,28541,95475,04888,60314,23728,096
Op Inc LTM-70244,2807,7319,3008972,588
FCF LTM-254-933,3076,9087,4486952,001
FCF 3Y Avg-92-422,6766,1415,3637601,718
CFO LTM-195-94,7578,55710,5671,0582,908
CFO 3Y Avg-58224,3407,8168,5361,1402,740

Growth & Margins

AVAVKTOSNOCLMTRTXTXTMedian
NameAeroViro.Kratos D.Northrop.Lockheed.RTX Textron  
Rev Chg LTM79.9%14.0%2.2%5.6%9.7%1.8%7.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg48.0%14.3%4.7%4.4%9.9%4.3%7.3%
Rev Chg Q150.7%26.0%9.6%9.1%12.1%5.1%10.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM26.2%5.9%2.5%2.3%3.0%1.2%2.8%
Op Mgn LTM-5.1%1.9%10.2%10.3%10.5%6.3%8.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.9%2.6%9.1%10.9%7.9%6.9%7.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.1%-0.1%0.2%2.0%0.2%0.4%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-14.2%-0.7%11.3%11.4%11.9%7.4%9.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-4.2%2.0%10.6%11.0%10.7%8.2%9.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-18.5%-7.3%7.9%9.2%8.4%4.9%6.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-7.6%-3.5%6.5%8.6%6.7%5.5%6.0%

Valuation

AVAVKTOSNOCLMTRTXTXTMedian
NameAeroViro.Kratos D.Northrop.Lockheed.RTX Textron  
Mkt Cap12.115.096.8145.2264.317.357.0
P/S8.811.62.31.93.01.22.6
P/EBIT-142.2456.316.920.625.015.618.8
P/E-174.0748.323.128.939.320.926.0
P/CFO-62.1-1,740.320.317.025.016.316.7
Total Yield-0.6%0.1%5.0%5.1%3.9%4.9%4.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.7%1.6%1.4%0.1%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.0%-0.7%3.6%5.5%3.3%5.0%3.4%
D/E0.10.00.20.10.10.20.1
Net D/E0.0-0.00.10.10.10.10.1

Returns

AVAVKTOSNOCLMTRTXTXTMedian
NameAeroViro.Kratos D.Northrop.Lockheed.RTX Textron  
1M Rtn-34.3%-25.5%7.9%14.1%1.4%4.3%2.8%
3M Rtn-24.7%14.4%22.0%38.6%11.0%18.0%16.2%
6M Rtn-4.5%27.7%17.6%44.2%27.3%19.6%23.4%
12M Rtn35.7%173.7%45.7%44.0%55.0%31.6%44.9%
3Y Rtn175.9%687.3%53.9%41.9%109.0%32.3%81.4%
1M Excs Rtn-33.8%-25.0%8.4%14.6%1.9%4.8%3.3%
3M Excs Rtn-28.7%9.3%19.5%38.5%8.6%17.0%13.1%
6M Excs Rtn-10.5%19.3%10.1%40.2%19.7%16.2%17.7%
12M Excs Rtn19.2%150.9%31.2%30.0%41.7%17.3%30.6%
3Y Excs Rtn96.4%575.1%-9.9%-23.4%46.5%-37.1%18.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
UnCrewed Systems (UxS)591   
Corporate209207229302
Loitering Munitions Systems (LMS)1651039272
MacCready Works (MW)5140  
Unmanned systems (UMS) 474  
All other  8740
High Altitude Pseudo-Satellite Unmanned Aircraft Systems (HAPS)  8 
Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS)  388402
Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (SUAS)  110113
Total1,016825914929


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$243.42 
Market Cap ($ Bil)12.1 
First Trading Date01/23/2007 
Distance from 52W High-40.6% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$284.68$266.31
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA-14.5%-8.6%
 3M1YR
Volatility83.9%66.3%
Downside Capture470.36163.05
Upside Capture280.44171.29
Correlation (SPY)49.2%37.1%
AVAV Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta5.674.103.002.241.211.08
Up Beta1.07-0.980.140.181.040.99
Down Beta8.686.504.873.571.040.85
Up Capture581%421%196%246%246%274%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days10192562121379
Down Capture330%318%310%210%120%105%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days10223663129371

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AVAV
AVAV36.9%66.3%0.74-
Sector ETF (XLI)27.6%19.1%1.1438.2%
Equity (SPY)15.5%19.3%0.6236.8%
Gold (GLD)75.7%24.9%2.2315.7%
Commodities (DBC)8.8%16.6%0.3422.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.0%16.6%0.1810.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-29.3%44.7%-0.6440.3%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AVAV
AVAV15.4%53.8%0.47-
Sector ETF (XLI)16.3%17.2%0.7735.6%
Equity (SPY)13.9%17.0%0.6535.1%
Gold (GLD)22.9%16.9%1.1013.9%
Commodities (DBC)11.4%18.9%0.4915.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.1%18.8%0.1824.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)13.3%57.9%0.4521.2%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AVAV
AVAV25.9%50.3%0.65-
Sector ETF (XLI)15.4%19.8%0.6939.1%
Equity (SPY)15.6%17.9%0.7538.0%
Gold (GLD)15.7%15.5%0.858.5%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%17.6%0.3918.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.1%20.7%0.2627.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.7%66.7%1.0816.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 1152026-11.0%
Average Daily Volume1.8 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.7 days
Basic Shares Quantity49.7 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares5.9%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/9/2025-12.9%-16.6%29.7%
9/9/20257.0%15.1%76.4%
6/24/202521.6%30.6%41.2%
3/4/2025-4.4%-12.6%-10.6%
12/4/2024-15.9%-21.6%-16.8%
9/4/2024-5.3%-5.2%3.6%
6/26/2024-7.7%-11.7%-9.8%
3/4/202427.9%22.4%12.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111417
# Negative13107
Median Positive7.0%9.0%8.1%
Median Negative-6.6%-11.5%-10.7%
Max Positive27.9%30.6%76.4%
Max Negative-15.9%-21.6%-17.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
10/31/202512/10/202510-Q
07/31/202509/10/202510-Q
04/30/202506/25/202510-K
01/31/202503/05/202510-Q
10/31/202412/05/202410-Q
07/31/202409/05/202410-Q
04/30/202406/27/202410-K
01/31/202403/05/202410-Q
10/31/202312/06/202310-Q
07/31/202309/06/202310-Q
04/30/202306/28/202310-K
01/31/202303/06/202310-Q
10/31/202212/07/202210-Q
07/31/202209/08/202210-Q
04/30/202206/29/202210-K
01/31/202203/04/202210-Q

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Shackley, Brian CharlesChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell1022026250.9220050,1841,504,014Form
2McDonnell, Kevin PatrickCFOSee FootnoteSell12122025249.37511127,4284,563,471Form
3McDonnell, Kevin PatrickCFOSee FootnoteSell11122025331.46513170,0396,235,094Form
4McDonnell, Kevin PatrickCFOSee FootnoteSell10142025399.74998398,9417,724,576Form
5Stevenson, Trace EPresident, Autonomous SystemsDirectSell10062025381.001,717654,1771,869,567Form