Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36%
  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 125%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 307%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 78%
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.6%
  Key risks
ARMN key risks include [1] a high concentration of operations in Colombia, Show more.
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, Water Treatment Solutions, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.6%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, Water Treatment Solutions, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x
7 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 125%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 307%
8 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 78%
9 Key risks
ARMN key risks include [1] a high concentration of operations in Colombia, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ARMN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the 77.6% stock movement for Aris Mining (ARMN) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Strong Q3 2025 Production and Financial Performance: Aris Mining reported robust third-quarter 2025 results, with gold production increasing by 25% quarter-over-quarter to 73,236 ounces. This led to record revenue of $253.5 million, a 27% increase from Q2 2025, and adjusted EBITDA of $131.1 million, nearly triple that of Q3 2024, driven by higher gold prices and increased sales volumes.

2. Successful Commissioning and Ramp-up of Segovia Mill Expansion: The company successfully commissioned its expanded Segovia processing facility in June 2025, increasing processing capacity by 50% to 3,000 tonnes per day. This expansion was a significant factor driving increased production and operational efficiency throughout the second half of 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ARMN Return49%-33%-41%32%7%343%264%
Peers Return77%18%-13%8%18%164%518%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARMN Win Rate67%33%42%50%58%92% 
Peers Win Rate48%45%38%52%57%73% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARMN Max Drawdown-48%-44%-54%-18%-16%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-22%-29%-21%-21%-5% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEM, GOLD, KGC, PAAS, AU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARMNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-69.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven232.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven939 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven110 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-37.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven59.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven151 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-44.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven78.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven364 days1480 days

Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM


In The Past

Aris Mining's stock fell -69.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/5/2021. A -69.9% loss requires a 232.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Aris Mining (ARMN)

Better Bets than Aris Mining (ARMN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ARMN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Aris Mining

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARMNNEMGOLDKGCPAASAUMedian
NameAris Min.Newmont Gold.com Kinross .Pan Amer.Anglogol. 
Mkt Price15.4299.4532.7027.9450.0084.5441.35
Mkt Cap3.1109.10.634.014.735.624.3
Rev LTM77021,50311,9446,4443,2558,5757,509
Op Inc LTM2809,359422,6087923,4161,700
FCF LTM1686,1224632,2417462,5241,494
FCF 3Y Avg92,636201,2742821,071676
CFO LTM3339,2244753,3481,0513,8522,200
CFO 3Y Avg1575,616332,3806132,1871,400

Growth & Margins

ARMNNEMGOLDKGCPAASAUMedian
NameAris Min.Newmont Gold.com Kinross .Pan Amer.Anglogol. 
Rev Chg LTM59.0%26.6%20.3%32.9%21.7%61.8%29.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg27.3%23.9%14.5%29.5%28.4%30.1%27.8%
Rev Chg Q91.6%20.0%35.6%25.8%19.3%62.1%30.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM19.1%4.5%8.8%6.1%4.4%12.1%7.4%
Op Mgn LTM36.3%43.5%0.4%40.5%24.3%39.8%38.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg28.4%23.9%0.9%25.0%12.4%24.3%24.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.5%4.5%-0.1%1.8%2.5%3.3%2.9%
CFO/Rev LTM43.3%42.9%4.0%52.0%32.3%44.9%43.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg24.6%32.6%0.1%45.2%21.3%33.3%28.6%
FCF/Rev LTM21.8%28.5%3.9%34.8%22.9%29.4%25.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.7%13.8%-0.1%23.1%8.2%14.3%11.0%

Valuation

ARMNNEMGOLDKGCPAASAUMedian
NameAris Min.Newmont Gold.com Kinross .Pan Amer.Anglogol. 
Mkt Cap3.1109.10.634.014.735.624.3
P/S2.54.30.14.74.54.24.2
P/EBIT10.58.9-11.3--10.5
P/E39.712.986.417.223.115.820.2
P/CFO5.910.01.39.014.09.39.1
Total Yield2.5%9.0%2.7%6.3%5.4%9.9%5.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.2%1.5%0.5%1.0%3.6%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.4%3.6%-8.8%--3.6%
D/E0.30.1-0.0--0.1
Net D/E0.1-0.0--0.0---0.0

Returns

ARMNNEMGOLDKGCPAASAUMedian
NameAris Min.Newmont Gold.com Kinross .Pan Amer.Anglogol. 
1M Rtn36.2%14.5%29.9%12.2%33.7%9.8%22.2%
3M Rtn61.8%26.7%24.2%24.6%42.0%32.4%29.6%
6M Rtn125.1%71.8%56.1%80.6%73.9%80.1%77.0%
12M Rtn306.9%154.1%24.0%194.2%131.0%268.2%174.2%
3Y Rtn460.7%133.8%8.5%617.7%233.5%388.1%310.8%
1M Excs Rtn35.5%13.8%29.1%11.4%33.0%9.1%21.5%
3M Excs Rtn66.4%26.0%20.0%24.3%41.2%30.9%28.4%
6M Excs Rtn112.7%59.4%43.7%68.2%61.5%67.7%64.6%
12M Excs Rtn295.8%140.4%7.8%177.1%117.7%245.0%158.7%
3Y Excs Rtn451.4%64.0%-67.0%522.2%155.7%319.7%237.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Marmato367248   
Toroparu348334   
Segovia312222   
Corporate and Other217336   
Soto Norte109101   
Total1,3531,242   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity890,748
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202597.6%
Average Daily Volume1,527,406
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity199,171,052
Short % of Basic Shares0.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202580720256-K 6/30/2025
331202550820256-K 3/31/2025
12312024313202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024111220246-K 9/30/2024
331202451420246-K 3/31/2024
12312023307202440-F 12/31/2023