Aris Mining (ARMN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $14.2 | Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Aris Mining (ARMN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $14.2Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 109%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 279% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 78% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.6% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, Water Treatment Solutions, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, Water Treatment Solutions, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 109%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 279% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 78% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ARMN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining why Aris Mining (ARMN) stock moved significantly, based on recent developments up to December 5, 2025:
1. Strong Financial and Operational Performance in 2025. Aris Mining demonstrated consistently strong financial results throughout 2025. The company reported record adjusted earnings per share of $0.16 in Q1 2025, a 300% increase year-over-year. Gold revenue surged 47% to $154.1 million in Q1 and reached a record $200.2 million in Q2, representing a 75% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled in Q2 to $98.7 million. In Q3 2025, gold production rose 25% over Q2 to 73,236 ounces, with revenue reaching $253.5 million (up 27% from Q2 and 93% from Q3 2024), and adjusted EBITDA hitting a record $131.1 million. The company's cash balance also grew significantly, exceeding $415 million by the end of Q3 2025.
2. Successful Commissioning and Ramp-Up of Segovia Mill Expansion. The expanded Segovia mill was successfully commissioned in June 2025, increasing processing capacity by 50% to 3,000 tonnes per day (tpd). This expansion played a crucial role in the increased gold production reported in Q3 2025 and positions Segovia to produce 300,000 ounces of gold annually. Aris Mining is targeting an overall annual production rate of over 500,000 ounces of gold by the second half of 2026.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARMN Return | 49% | -33% | -41% | 32% | 7% | 304% | 232% |
| Peers Return | 41% | -14% | -6% | -1% | 9% | 126% | 176% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARMN Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 90% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 45% | 48% | 52% | 47% | 78% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARMN Max Drawdown | -48% | -44% | -54% | -18% | -16% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -28% | -32% | -22% | -21% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 232.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 939 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 110 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 151 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 364 days | 1480 days |
Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM
In The Past
Aris Mining's stock fell -69.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/5/2021. A -69.9% loss requires a 232.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ARMN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Aris Mining
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 65.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 54.7 |
| Rev LTM | 6,057 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,146 |
| FCF LTM | 226 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 124 |
| CFO LTM | 1,310 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,056 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 38.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 40.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 41.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 28.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 43.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 54.7 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 9.7 |
| P/E | 18.7 |
| P/CFO | 10.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 17.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 21.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 54.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 112.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 158.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 38.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 104.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 94.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3132025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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| FinViz |