Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 6.6%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 6.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PAAS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points highlighting why Pan American Silver (PAAS) stock moved by 31.5% for the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Significant Increase in Silver Prices. The price of silver saw a substantial rise, moving from $39.73 per ounce on August 31, 2025, to $57.95 per ounce by December 2, 2025, representing an increase of approximately 45.86%. Analysts generally maintained a bullish outlook for the broader silver market from 2025 through 2030, with forecasts suggesting prices could range from $44.50 to $65 per ounce in 2026. This strong performance in its primary commodity significantly contributed to PAAS's stock appreciation.

2. Successful Acquisition and Integration of MAG Silver. A pivotal factor was the successful acquisition and integration of MAG Silver, which was finalized in August 2025, following regulatory approval on August 25, 2025. This strategic move is expected to significantly boost PAAS's silver production forecasts, with the Juanicipio mine (a key asset from the acquisition) projected to increase Pan American's silver output by approximately 35% on an annualized basis. The acquisition is also anticipated to lower the company's all-in sustaining costs.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PAAS Return47%-27%-33%2%27%125%111%
Peers Return41%-14%-6%-1%9%128%178%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PAAS Win Rate42%42%50%50%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate48%45%48%52%47%78% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PAAS Max Drawdown-50%-35%-44%-18%-25%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-28%-32%-22%-21%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPAASS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-65.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven191.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven683 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-53.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven115.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven60 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-51.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven104.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven197 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-78.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven357.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven869 days1480 days

Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM


In The Past

Pan American Silver's stock fell -65.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2021. A -65.7% loss requires a 191.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Better Bets than Pan American Silver (PAAS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PAAS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Pan American Silver

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PAASBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NamePan Amer.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Price44.4440.50202.459.5589.65169.1867.05
Mkt Cap16.169.539.02.998.385.054.3
Rev LTM3,11613,8241,5461,35221,50310,5686,842
Op Inc LTM6825,3511,0694269,3595,2233,146
FCF LTM680--8562266,1223,645680
FCF 3Y Avg204--161242,6362,041204
CFO LTM968-1,3104559,2245,8371,310
CFO 3Y Avg528-1,0563395,6163,8831,056

Growth & Margins

PAASBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NamePan Amer.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Rev Chg LTM21.1%16.9%41.1%68.1%26.6%35.2%30.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg24.5%5.9%7.7%26.7%23.9%26.0%24.2%
Rev Chg Q18.3%16.4%76.9%38.3%20.0%41.9%29.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.2%3.9%15.9%5.4%4.5%9.4%4.9%
Op Mgn LTM21.9%38.7%69.1%31.5%43.5%49.4%41.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.1%29.4%64.1%22.0%23.9%36.0%26.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.1%3.2%0.8%2.9%4.5%3.6%3.4%
CFO/Rev LTM31.1%-84.7%33.7%42.9%55.2%42.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg19.0%-81.3%35.4%32.6%45.6%35.4%
FCF/Rev LTM21.8%--55.4%16.7%28.5%34.5%21.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.3%-4.6%11.7%13.8%22.7%11.7%

Valuation

PAASBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NamePan Amer.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Cap16.169.539.02.998.385.054.3
P/S3.32.627.82.04.38.03.8
P/EBIT12.16.336.75.98.916.210.5
P/E19.712.946.711.912.924.616.3
P/CFO10.6-32.86.010.014.510.6
Total Yield6.5%9.2%2.4%8.4%9.0%4.9%7.4%
Dividend Yield1.4%1.4%0.3%0.0%1.2%0.8%1.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.6%-0.4%6.2%3.6%3.9%3.6%
D/E0.10.00.00.10.10.00.0
Net D/E-0.00.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0

Returns

PAASBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NamePan Amer.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
1M Rtn28.6%23.0%7.8%16.2%10.2%4.3%13.2%
3M Rtn31.1%50.0%6.8%22.8%19.6%14.0%21.2%
6M Rtn68.4%103.1%14.8%41.7%63.2%37.6%52.4%
12M Rtn99.7%134.8%66.7%92.2%119.3%99.3%99.5%
3Y Rtn171.6%155.4%43.6%144.9%102.1%250.1%150.1%
1M Excs Rtn28.7%23.1%7.8%16.2%10.2%4.4%13.2%
3M Excs Rtn27.5%44.0%1.2%20.0%14.7%8.9%17.4%
6M Excs Rtn53.7%88.4%0.1%27.0%48.5%22.8%37.7%
12M Excs Rtn92.0%122.9%53.2%86.2%103.8%89.4%90.7%
3Y Excs Rtn144.0%109.7%-22.8%103.2%49.2%204.6%106.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Gold Segment1,7059901,031958565
Silver Segment611505601380785
Other segment00   
Total2,3161,4951,6331,3391,351


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Gold Segment5,2591,7682,0782,0331,312
Silver Segment1,1561,0229899131,673
Other segment798459452488477
Total7,2133,2483,5193,4343,462


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,120,053
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-1.4%
Average Daily Volume5,853,145
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.24
Basic Shares Quantity362,011,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202580620256-K 6/30/2025
331202550720256-K 3/31/2025
12312024219202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024110620246-K 9/30/2024
630202480720246-K 6/30/2024
331202450920246-K 3/31/2024
12312023326202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110720236-K 9/30/2023
630202380920236-K 6/30/2023
331202351020236-K 3/31/2023
12312022222202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022111020226-K 9/30/2022
630202281120226-K 6/30/2022
331202251120226-K 3/31/2022
12312021224202240-F 12/31/2021
9302021111020216-K 9/30/2021