Pan American Silver (PAAS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $43.68 | Market Cap: $15.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Pan American Silver (PAAS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $43.68Market Cap: $15.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 6.6% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 6.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PAAS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Pan American Silver (PAAS) stock moved by 31.5% for the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Significant Increase in Silver Prices. The price of silver saw a substantial rise, moving from $39.73 per ounce on August 31, 2025, to $57.95 per ounce by December 2, 2025, representing an increase of approximately 45.86%. Analysts generally maintained a bullish outlook for the broader silver market from 2025 through 2030, with forecasts suggesting prices could range from $44.50 to $65 per ounce in 2026. This strong performance in its primary commodity significantly contributed to PAAS's stock appreciation.
2. Successful Acquisition and Integration of MAG Silver. A pivotal factor was the successful acquisition and integration of MAG Silver, which was finalized in August 2025, following regulatory approval on August 25, 2025. This strategic move is expected to significantly boost PAAS's silver production forecasts, with the Juanicipio mine (a key asset from the acquisition) projected to increase Pan American's silver output by approximately 35% on an annualized basis. The acquisition is also anticipated to lower the company's all-in sustaining costs.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PAAS Return | 47% | -27% | -33% | 2% | 27% | 125% | 111% |
| Peers Return | 41% | -14% | -6% | -1% | 9% | 128% | 178% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PAAS Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 45% | 48% | 52% | 47% | 78% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PAAS Max Drawdown | -50% | -35% | -44% | -18% | -25% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -28% | -32% | -22% | -21% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PAAS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 191.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 683 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 197 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 357.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 869 days | 1480 days |
Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM
In The Past
Pan American Silver's stock fell -65.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2021. A -65.7% loss requires a 191.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Pan American Silver vs Newmont: Which Stock Could Rally? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Is Pan American Silver Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| PAAS Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Pan American Silver (PAAS) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Pan American Silver Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 27.7% in 2024 and -2.2% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Pan American Silver Stock Surges 15% In A Single Week, Time To Buy The Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Pan American Silver (PAAS) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Pan American Silver (PAAS) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Pan American Silver (PAAS) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Pan American Silver (PAAS) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| PAAS’s One-Month Rally Offers a Chance to Reevaluate AU | September 27th, 2025 | ||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | September 23rd, 2025 | ||
| Big Move for PAAS, but Do AU’s Margins and Growth Give It the Edge? | September 13th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PAAS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Pan American Silver
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 67.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 54.3 |
| Rev LTM | 6,842 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,146 |
| FCF LTM | 680 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 204 |
| CFO LTM | 1,310 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,056 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 30.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 29.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 41.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 42.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 54.3 |
| P/S | 3.8 |
| P/EBIT | 10.5 |
| P/E | 16.3 |
| P/CFO | 10.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 21.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 52.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 99.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 150.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 37.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 90.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 106.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Segment | 1,705 | 990 | 1,031 | 958 | 565 |
| Silver Segment | 611 | 505 | 601 | 380 | 785 |
| Other segment | 0 | 0 | |||
| Total | 2,316 | 1,495 | 1,633 | 1,339 | 1,351 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Segment | 5,259 | 1,768 | 2,078 | 2,033 | 1,312 |
| Silver Segment | 1,156 | 1,022 | 989 | 913 | 1,673 |
| Other segment | 798 | 459 | 452 | 488 | 477 |
| Total | 7,213 | 3,248 | 3,519 | 3,434 | 3,462 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3262024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11102021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |