Pan American Silver (PAAS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $49.74 | Market Cap: $18.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Pan American Silver (PAAS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $49.74Market Cap: $18.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.7%, Dist 3Y High is -0.7% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 131% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | Key risksPAAS key risks include [1] heightened political and regulatory uncertainty within its key Latin American jurisdictions and [2] significant operational safety challenges, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.7%, Dist 3Y High is -0.7% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 131% |
| Key risksPAAS key risks include [1] heightened political and regulatory uncertainty within its key Latin American jurisdictions and [2] significant operational safety challenges, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PAAS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the 48% stock movement for Pan American Silver (PAAS) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Significant Surge in Silver Prices: The price of silver experienced a substantial increase during this period, reaching record highs. For instance, silver surged above $66 per ounce by December 2025, marking a significant breakout and a rally of approximately 26% since the beginning of the year. This commodity price surge directly and positively impacts silver mining companies like Pan American Silver.
2. Record-Breaking Q3 2025 Financial Performance: Pan American Silver reported exceptionally strong unaudited results for the third quarter of 2025, including record attributable revenue of $884.4 million and record attributable free cash flow of $251.7 million. The company also achieved net earnings of $169.2 million and adjusted earnings of $181.0 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PAAS Return | 47% | -27% | -33% | 2% | 27% | 148% | 131% |
| Peers Return | 83% | 14% | -5% | 3% | 17% | 165% | 530% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PAAS Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 42% | 48% | 55% | 50% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PAAS Max Drawdown | -50% | -35% | -44% | -18% | -25% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -22% | -33% | -28% | -24% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOLD, AEM, KGC, AG, HL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PAAS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 191.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 683 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 197 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 357.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 869 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM
In The Past
Pan American Silver's stock fell -65.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2021. A -65.7% loss requires a 191.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PAAS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Pan American Silver
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.8 |
| Rev LTM | 4,849 |
| Op Inc LTM | 583 |
| FCF LTM | 605 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 151 |
| CFO LTM | 763 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 419 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 34.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 23.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 38.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.8 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| P/EBIT | 19.3 |
| P/E | 32.6 |
| P/CFO | 14.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 31.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 33.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 77.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 155.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 242.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 31.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 32.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 64.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 139.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 168.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3262024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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