Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Building & Infrastructure Services. Themes include Fire Protection & Safety Systems, HVAC & Mechanical Services, and Security Systems & Integration.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 53x
1  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Building & Infrastructure Services. Themes include Fire Protection & Safety Systems, HVAC & Mechanical Services, and Security Systems & Integration.
1 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 53x
2 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

APG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The following are key points for APi (symbol: APG) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, based on available information: 1. APi Group Reports Record Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Raises Full-Year 2025 Outlook.

On October 30, 2025, APi Group announced record financial results for its third quarter of 2025 and subsequently raised its outlook for the full year 2025. This type of positive financial performance and optimistic future guidance typically influences investor sentiment and stock valuation. 2. APi Group Recommends Shareholders Reject “Mini-Tender” Offer.

On October 10, 2025, APi Group recommended that its shareholders reject a "Mini-Tender" Offer. Such recommendations from company management often signal their perception of the company's valuation or strategic direction, which can impact shareholder decisions and the stock price.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
APG Return72%42%-27%84%4%62%452%
Peers Return27%47%-6%71%18%-8%225%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
APG Win Rate83%67%25%58%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate60%62%43%62%58%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
APG Max Drawdown-55%-7%-49%-2%-12%-10% 
Peers Max Drawdown-40%-4%-36%-10%-10%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BLD, AAON, UFPI, GFF, APOG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAPGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-49.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven98.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven271 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven164.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days

Compare to BLD, AAON, UFPI, GFF, APOG


In The Past

APi's stock fell -49.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -49.6% loss requires a 98.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About APi (APG)

Better Bets than APi (APG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to APG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for APi

Peers to compare with:

Financials

APGBLDAAONUFPIGFFAPOGMedian
NameAPi TopBuild AAON UFP Indu.Griffon Apogee E. 
Mkt Price38.74449.8388.6392.7274.5738.1281.60
Mkt Cap16.112.67.25.23.40.86.2
Rev LTM7,6555,2361,3166,4532,5171,3923,877
Op Inc LTM50683013539644369420
FCF LTM572791-25627229467283
FCF 3Y Avg480723-41541338115409
CFO LTM660846-1854435598449
CFO 3Y Avg566788117767398157482

Growth & Margins

APGBLDAAONUFPIGFFAPOGMedian
NameAPi TopBuild AAON UFP Indu.Griffon Apogee E. 
Rev Chg LTM10.7%-1.3%8.8%-3.9%-3.4%1.2%-0.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.8%3.0%20.7%-12.5%-2.4%0.1%1.5%
Rev Chg Q14.2%1.4%17.4%-5.4%-5.3%4.6%3.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.5%0.4%4.5%-1.4%-1.3%1.1%0.8%
Op Mgn LTM6.6%15.8%10.3%6.1%17.6%4.9%8.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.8%16.4%16.4%7.8%14.3%8.3%11.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-0.6%-2.2%-0.3%1.2%-1.2%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM8.6%16.2%-1.4%8.4%14.1%7.1%8.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.9%15.1%10.0%10.9%15.2%11.3%11.1%
FCF/Rev LTM7.5%15.1%-19.5%4.2%11.7%4.8%6.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.7%13.8%-2.8%7.6%12.8%8.2%7.9%

Valuation

APGBLDAAONUFPIGFFAPOGMedian
NameAPi TopBuild AAON UFP Indu.Griffon Apogee E. 
Mkt Cap16.112.67.25.23.40.86.2
P/S1.92.15.80.81.30.71.6
P/EBIT28.213.057.812.115.312.714.1
P/E52.519.376.016.346.921.033.9
P/CFO21.712.9-424.79.79.29.59.6
Total Yield1.9%5.2%1.7%7.7%3.3%7.1%4.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.4%1.6%1.2%2.4%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.8%7.2%-0.5%8.5%12.8%9.7%7.8%
D/E0.20.30.00.10.50.40.2
Net D/E0.20.20.0-0.10.50.30.2

Returns

APGBLDAAONUFPIGFFAPOGMedian
NameAPi TopBuild AAON UFP Indu.Griffon Apogee E. 
1M Rtn8.3%6.5%-7.5%0.3%-0.4%6.9%3.4%
3M Rtn12.0%7.7%10.7%-5.4%-2.9%-9.2%2.4%
6M Rtn22.3%55.6%-7.0%-3.8%8.0%-0.9%3.5%
12M Rtn54.3%14.6%-33.1%-30.0%-9.0%-53.4%-19.5%
3Y Rtn199.7%187.3%67.5%15.6%127.9%-16.1%97.7%
1M Excs Rtn8.3%6.5%-7.4%0.3%-0.4%6.9%3.4%
3M Excs Rtn5.3%-0.6%3.8%-14.7%-11.5%-17.7%-6.0%
6M Excs Rtn7.6%40.9%-21.7%-18.5%-6.8%-15.6%-11.2%
12M Excs Rtn40.3%1.6%-48.2%-44.2%-24.2%-67.2%-34.2%
3Y Excs Rtn140.8%133.8%5.7%-52.6%61.8%-89.0%33.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Safety Services4,8714,5752,0801,639435
Specialty Services2,0792,0301,9071,401386
Elimination of intersegment revenues-22-47-47-16-3
Industrial Services   563167
Total6,9286,5583,9403,587985


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Safety Services5,7956,0292,1702,1341,770
Specialty Services1,2141,2811,2999961,305
Elimination of intersegment revenues 7811,690661368
Industrial Services   274568
Total7,0098,0915,1594,0654,011


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,406,787
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.6%
Average Daily Volume3,374,002
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.38
Basic Shares Quantity415,810,670
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0FRANKLIN MARTIN E 11052025Sell36.17289,83710,483,404708,170,730Form