American Public Education (APEI)
Market Price (7/6/2026): $56.8 | Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
American Public Education (APEI)
Market Price (7/6/2026): $56.8Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.1% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Higher Education, Workforce Upskilling, and Adult & Lifelong Learning. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.18, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Key risksAPEI key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on government funding, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.1% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Higher Education, Workforce Upskilling, and Adult & Lifelong Learning. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.18, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Key risksAPEI key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on government funding, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
American Public Education (APEI) stock has remained largely at the same level since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Performance and Positive Outlook Offset by Post-Earnings Decline.
American Public Education reported robust fiscal Q1 2026 results (ended March 31, 2026), with diluted earnings per share (EPS) increasing 129.3% to $0.94, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.61. Consolidated revenue also grew 6.2% year-over-year to $174.7 million. This strong performance led the company to raise its full-year 2026 EPS guidance to a range of $2.33–$2.68 and its revenue outlook to $686–$696 million. However, despite the positive news, the stock declined 5.86% in after-hours trading following the Q1 report, suggesting that favorable expectations may have been already priced in or led to profit-taking.
2. Valuation Concerns and Maintained Analyst Price Targets.
The stock's valuation metrics suggest it may be stretched, limiting significant upward movement. On June 22, 2026, the stock was trading at $54 per share, significantly higher than its estimated intrinsic GF Value of $20.35, resulting in a price-to-GF-Value ratio of 2.65, indicating it is significantly overvalued. Additionally, APEI's P/E ratio of 41.45x is substantially above its historical median P/E ratio of 24.37. This overvaluation concern likely acted as a ceiling, even as analysts largely maintained a consistent average price target of $62.17 per share, based on the company's execution in core segments and ongoing recovery efforts.
Show more
American Public Education (APEI) stock has remained largely at the same level since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Performance and Positive Outlook Offset by Post-Earnings Decline.
American Public Education reported robust fiscal Q1 2026 results (ended March 31, 2026), with diluted earnings per share (EPS) increasing 129.3% to $0.94, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.61. Consolidated revenue also grew 6.2% year-over-year to $174.7 million. This strong performance led the company to raise its full-year 2026 EPS guidance to a range of $2.33–$2.68 and its revenue outlook to $686–$696 million. However, despite the positive news, the stock declined 5.86% in after-hours trading following the Q1 report, suggesting that favorable expectations may have been already priced in or led to profit-taking.
2. Valuation Concerns and Maintained Analyst Price Targets.
The stock's valuation metrics suggest it may be stretched, limiting significant upward movement. On June 22, 2026, the stock was trading at $54 per share, significantly higher than its estimated intrinsic GF Value of $20.35, resulting in a price-to-GF-Value ratio of 2.65, indicating it is significantly overvalued. Additionally, APEI's P/E ratio of 41.45x is substantially above its historical median P/E ratio of 24.37. This overvaluation concern likely acted as a ceiling, even as analysts largely maintained a consistent average price target of $62.17 per share, based on the company's execution in core segments and ongoing recovery efforts.
3. Significant Insider Selling Activity.
A notable factor contributing to the stock's flat trend was substantial insider selling. Over the three months leading up to May 11, 2026, insiders sold approximately $20.8 million worth of shares, with no corresponding purchases recorded. More broadly, over the last six months, insider sales totaled an estimated $21.17 million. For instance, Thomas Beckett, SVP and General Counsel, executed multiple sales, including 8,000 shares on June 15, 2026, at an average price between $51 and $53 per share, and another 2,000 shares on June 22, 2026, at $54 per share. This consistent and significant insider selling, particularly without any insider buying, can negatively impact investor sentiment and temper enthusiasm for the stock.
4. Strategic Operational and Financial Improvements.
During this period, American Public Education advanced several strategic initiatives aimed at long-term stability. On April 28, 2026, the company received Higher Learning Commission approval to consolidate its American Public University System (APUS), Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing programs into a single accredited institution, with the combination slated for completion at the beginning of fiscal Q3 2026. Furthermore, on March 12, 2026, APEI successfully completed refinancing with a new $130 million senior secured credit facility, which is projected to yield annual interest savings of $3.7 million. While these efforts are expected to simplify operations and strengthen the company's financial position, their benefits are long-term, and their immediate impact on stock price appreciation was likely balanced by existing valuation concerns.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.3% change in APEI stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 56.88 | 56.72 | -0.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 649 | 659 | 1.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.9% | 6.1% | 26.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.6 | 25.7 | -21.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 18 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APEI | -0.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.5% | 6.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.5% | -3.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.1% change in APEI stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.80 | 56.72 | 50.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 655 | 659 | 0.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.9% | 6.1% | 25.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.4 | 25.7 | 19.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 18 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.1% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APEI | 50.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 5.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.7% | 7.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 86.2% change in APEI stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 58.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.46 | 56.72 | 86.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 635 | 659 | 3.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.9% | 6.1% | 58.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.2 | 25.7 | 15.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 18 | -2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 86.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APEI | 86.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.6% | 10.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 8.4% | 9.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1096.6% change in APEI stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 951.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.74 | 56.72 | 1096.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 601 | 659 | 9.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 1.6 | 951.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 19 | 18 | 3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1096.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APEI | 1096.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.0% | 21.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 41.1% | 19.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| APEI Return | -27% | -45% | -21% | 124% | 75% | 48% | 83% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 12% | 50% | 52% | -7% | 24% | 213% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| APEI Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 86% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 53% | 62% | 53% | 52% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| APEI Max Drawdown | -51% | -66% | -71% | -41% | -22% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -30% | -24% | -22% | -38% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: STRA, LRN, LOPE, PRDO, UTI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | APEI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -69.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 226.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 260 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -64.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 182.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 822 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 140 days |
In The Past
American Public Education's stock fell -14.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 16.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | APEI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -69.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 226.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 260 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -64.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 182.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 822 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -35.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -52.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5259 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 135 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
American Public Education's stock fell -14.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 16.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About American Public Education (APEI)
American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) is a publicly traded company that specializes in providing online and campus-based postsecondary education. The company operates through several key segments, including the American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing, aiming to make higher education accessible to a broad student demographic.
APEI offers a comprehensive range of academic programs, including 130 degree programs and 111 certificate programs across diverse fields. Its offerings cover high-demand areas such as business administration, health science, technology, criminal justice, education, and liberal arts. The company also provides specialized curricula in national security, military studies, intelligence, and homeland security, serving professionals and individuals interested in these critical sectors.
Additionally, American Public Education, Inc. is a notable provider of nursing and health sciences education. Through its dedicated institutions, it delivers practical and associate degree programs, including diplomas in practical nursing, associate degrees in nursing, and associate degrees in medical laboratory technology, preparing students for essential careers in the healthcare industry.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Online and Campus-Based Degree Programs: APEI offers a diverse portfolio of undergraduate and graduate degree programs across various fields, including business, technology, and liberal arts.
- Certificate Programs: The company provides specialized certificate programs designed to offer targeted knowledge and skills in numerous academic and vocational areas.
- Nursing and Health Sciences Programs: APEI delivers focused postsecondary education in nursing and health sciences, including diplomas and associate degrees in practical nursing, registered nursing, and medical laboratory technology.
AI Analysis | Feedback
American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) primarily sells its educational services to individuals.
The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Military and Public Service Personnel: APEI has a strong focus on serving current and former military members, veterans, and individuals in the national security, intelligence, and homeland security sectors, offering programs tailored to their needs and career paths.
- Healthcare Professionals and Students: Through institutions like Hondros College of Nursing and Rasmussen University, APEI provides education for individuals pursuing careers in nursing and other health sciences fields, including practical nursing, associate degrees in nursing, and medical laboratory technology.
- Working Adults and Career Changers: The company's online and campus-based programs in fields such as business administration, technology, criminal justice, education, and liberal arts attract working adults seeking to advance their careers, acquire new skills, or complete a degree while balancing professional and personal commitments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Angela Selden, Chief Executive Officer
Angela Selden was appointed CEO of APEI in September 2019. She brings over 30 years of experience in technology and technology-enabled services, having worked in both private-equity and publicly traded environments, with deep expertise in executing business transformation initiatives for Fortune 500 clients. Prior to APEI, Ms. Selden served as CEO and board member of DIGARC, an education technology provider. She was also CEO of Workforce Insight, CEO and Executive Co-Chairman of Arise Virtual Solutions, and interim CEO of Skybridge Americas. Earlier in her career, Ms. Selden spent 18 years at Accenture, where she was a Managing Partner.
Edward Codispoti, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Edward Codispoti joined American Public Education, Inc. as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective October 20, 2025. He brings more than 25 years of financial leadership experience across various industries. Most recently, he served as Chief Financial Officer of NV5 Global, Inc., a global provider of technology and engineering consulting solutions, from June 2019 to October 2025.
Gary Janson, Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Growth Officer
Gary Janson joined APEI in November 2022. He has 30 years of experience in the education and training sector. For 16 years, Mr. Janson worked as an independent consultant, where he advised clients on operating strategy, financial analysis, fundraising, regulatory compliance, acquisitions, and divestitures. He has also served as a board member for several education companies and is currently on the board of Triumph Higher Education Group.
James Kenigsberg, Interim Chief Innovation and Technology Officer
James Kenigsberg was appointed as APEI's interim Chief Innovation and Technology Officer on August 11, 2025. He has over two decades of experience leading technology strategies in education. Mr. Kenigsberg was the founding Chief Technology Officer at 2U, Inc., where he helped scale the company from a startup in 2008 to a global edtech leader. He has also served as a strategic advisor to various high-growth startups and education-focused companies, including Udemy and Andela. Earlier in his career, Mr. Kenigsberg was Vice President of Application Development at The Princeton Review.
Steve Somers, Senior Vice President of Strategy and Corporate Development
Steve Somers joined APEI in June 2020 and is responsible for advancing the company's business strategy and corporate development initiatives. He has nearly 10 years of experience in the education industry, most recently serving as Vice President of Corporate Development at Kaplan, Inc., where he executed over 15 deals. Previously, he was Vice President of Corporate Development, Investor Relations & Treasury at Rosetta Stone, where he helped expand the language business through two acquisitions and enter the literacy business with the acquisition of Lexia Learning. Before his time in the education sector, Mr. Somers led M&A and investor relations at SunCom Wireless, where he led its sale to T-Mobile, and at GSI Commerce, which was later sold to eBay.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to American Public Education (APEI):
- Regulatory Compliance and Dependence on Federal Funding: American Public Education operates in a highly regulated sector and faces significant challenges in complying with various federal and state regulations, including the "90/10 Rule" and financial responsibility standards. Non-compliance could lead to sanctions or the loss of eligibility to participate in federal student financial aid programs, which would materially impact the company's operations and financial health. Additionally, APEI's reliance on federal appropriations and budgetary allocations, particularly for its military and veteran students, exposes it to risks associated with government shutdowns and changes in federal policy. The federal government shutdown in October-November 2025, for instance, negatively impacted tuition assistance registrations and revenue for the American Public University System (APUS) segment. The 90/10 rule percentage for APUS was 89% in 2025, leaving a narrow buffer before potential Title IV eligibility issues could arise if trends worsen.
- Competitive Pressures: The postsecondary education market is intensely competitive, with APEI facing ongoing threats from a wide array of institutions, including other for-profit online education companies and non-profit universities expanding their digital footprints. This heightened competition can lead to increased student acquisition costs and necessitate substantial investments in marketing, program development, and technology to maintain market share and attract new enrollments.
- Execution Risks Related to Strategic Initiatives and Operational Changes: APEI is currently undergoing significant strategic and operational transformations, including the planned consolidation of its subsidiary institutions—American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing—into a single entity. These initiatives carry inherent execution risks such as potential operational disruptions, challenges in integration, and the possibility that the anticipated benefits, like cost savings or revenue synergies, may not be fully realized. Furthermore, the transition of Rasmussen University's IT functions and potential challenges associated with campus expansions or new campus openings present additional operational hurdles.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Proliferation of Alternative Credentialing and Skills-Based Education: The rapid growth of non-degree educational pathways, such as specialized bootcamps, industry-recognized certifications (e.g., from major tech companies like Google or AWS), and employer-sponsored training programs, presents a clear emerging threat. These alternatives often offer faster, more affordable, and highly focused routes to acquiring job-ready skills in high-demand fields, directly competing with and potentially eroding demand for traditional degree and certificate programs offered by APEI in areas like technology, business, and health sciences.
Disruptive Impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Education: The emergence and widespread adoption of generative AI tools, such as large language models, pose several significant threats. These tools challenge traditional academic integrity and assessment methods, requiring a fundamental shift in curriculum design and evaluation. Furthermore, AI-powered platforms could enable highly personalized and adaptive learning experiences, potentially offering more effective or engaging alternatives to APEI's existing online course delivery. AI also lowers the barrier to entry for new education providers by automating content creation, while simultaneously accelerating shifts in workforce skill demands, potentially diminishing the relevance of some existing degree programs without continuous and rapid curriculum adaptation.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for American Public Education (APEI)'s main products and services are primarily within the U.S. and can be sized as follows:
- U.S. Higher Education Market (Overall, including online and campus-based): This market was projected to reach a valuation of USD 218.27 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 668.33 billion by 2033. The U.S. higher education market generated a revenue of USD 192,918.6 million in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 370,409.0 million by 2030.
- U.S. Online Education Market: The U.S. e-learning market exceeded US$ 128.37 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to US$ 278.27 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.83% between 2025 and 2033. Another source states the United States e-learning market is expected to reach USD 278.3 Billion by 2032.
- U.S. Traditional Classroom-Based (Campus-based) Higher Education Market: Traditional classroom-based learning was the largest revenue-generating mode in the U.S. higher education market in 2023, holding a 70.68% share of the USD 192,918.6 million total market, which equates to approximately USD 136.3 billion.
- U.S. Nursing Education Market: The U.S. nursing education market size reached USD 9.7 billion in 2024, growing from USD 9.5 billion in 2023. This market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 5.3% between 2025 and 2034. It was valued at USD 10,889.02 million in 2025 and is expected to increase to USD 13,760.45 million by 2032. Additionally, nursing education programs generate more than $8.5 billion in annual revenue and are projected to be worth $14.57 billion by 2030.
- U.S. Healthcare Education Market (includes health sciences): The U.S. healthcare education market is expected to reach USD 61.44 billion by 2028, growing from USD 39.24 billion in 2023, at a CAGR of 9.4% during the forecast period.
AI Analysis | Feedback
For American Public Education, Inc. (APEI), the expected drivers of future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years include:
- Continued Growth of Rasmussen University and Hondros College of Nursing: Both Rasmussen University and Hondros College of Nursing have demonstrated strong revenue growth, with Rasmussen's revenue increasing by 14% and Hondros' by 11% in 2025. The lifting of growth restrictions by the Department of Education on Rasmussen College is expected to enable further expansion and diversification.
- New Campus Expansion: APEI plans to expand its physical footprint by launching new campuses. Specifically, a new Rasmussen campus is slated for Orlando in the second quarter of 2026, and a Hondros campus in Detroit is planned for the first quarter of 2027. This expansion is anticipated to contribute to increased student enrollment and, consequently, higher revenue.
- Increased Enrollment and Course Registrations: The company anticipates continued growth in net course registrations, particularly at the American Public University System (APUS), driven by students utilizing Tuition Assistance (TA) and Veterans Affairs (VA) education funding. Overall enrollment growth across its institutions, such as the 8.9% enrollment increase at Rasmussen contributing to its revenue growth, is a key focus. Analysts also foresee heightened enrollment by 2026.
- Strategic Initiatives and Operational Efficiencies: APEI is focusing on strategic initiatives, including investments in curriculum modernization, faculty salary increments, and improved student experiences, which are expected to enhance academic quality and student success, thereby attracting and retaining students. The company's strategic realignment to a two-segment reporting structure (APU Global and RU Health+) and efforts to achieve operational efficiencies are also aimed at simplifying and strengthening the business for sustained growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) authorized a new $50 million share repurchase program during its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call in March 2026. This program represents approximately 6% of the company's shares outstanding.
- No share repurchases were made in the second quarter of 2025, despite an open authorization.
Share Issuance
- In February 2021, APEI announced the pricing of a public offering of 3,200,000 shares of common stock at $25.00 per share, expecting gross proceeds of approximately $80 million. The company also granted underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 480,000 shares.
- The net proceeds from this offering were intended for general corporate purposes, including working capital and capital expenditures, and potentially to fund costs associated with the acquisition of Rasmussen University.
- As of March 10, 2026, the total number of common stock shares outstanding was 18,380,439.
Outbound Investments
- In 2021, APEI acquired Rasmussen University for $329 million, comprising $300 million in cash and $29 million in non-voting preferred stock.
- The company acquired Graduate School USA (G.S.USA) in 2022 for $1 million.
- American Public Education completed the sale of Graduate School USA (GSUSA) in 2025. This sale, along with the release of restricted cash, fully funded the redemption of approximately $43 million of preferred stock, leading to annual savings of $6 million from eliminated dividend payments.
Capital Expenditures
- APEI projects capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be between $28 million and $32 million, focused on enhancing operational capabilities and educational offerings. This includes plans for new campus openings, such as a Rasmussen campus in Orlando and a Hondros campus in Detroit, with each new campus costing approximately $3.5 million to open.
- For the full year 2025, anticipated capital expenditures were in the range of $15 million to $17 million.
- Capital expenditures totaled $7.6 million in the first half of 2025, compared to $11.4 million in the first half of 2024. The company guided for $20 million in CapEx (upper end) for the full year 2024.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| American Public Education Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| American Public Education Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 68.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| Rev LTM | 997 |
| Op Inc LTM | 216 |
| FCF LTM | 197 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 160 |
| CFO LTM | 224 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 183 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 15.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 49.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Public University System (APUS) Segment | 320 | 317 | 303 | 285 | 284 |
| Rasmussen University (RU) Segment | 246 | 216 | 214 | 253 | 89 |
| Hondros College of Nursing (HCN) Segment | 75 | 67 | 57 | 47 | 46 |
| Corporate and Other | 8 | 24 | 26 | 21 | -0 |
| Total | 649 | 625 | 601 | 606 | 419 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Public University System (APUS) Segment | 91 | 89 | 84 | 58 | 37 |
| Rasmussen University (RU) Segment | 4 | -22 | -104 | -167 | 0 |
| Hondros College of Nursing (HCN) Segment | -1 | -1 | -1 | -4 | -11 |
| Corporate and Other | -46 | -33 | -28 | -25 | -14 |
| Total | 48 | 33 | -48 | -137 | 13 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen University (RU) Segment | 221 | 301 | 429 | ||
| Corporate and Other | 167 | 141 | 117 | ||
| American Public University System (APUS) Segment | 109 | 114 | 127 | ||
| Hondros College of Nursing (HCN) Segment | 60 | 60 | 52 | 48 | 49 |
| American Public Education | 323 | 306 | |||
| Total | 557 | 615 | 726 | 371 | 355 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $56.72 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/09/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $39.85 | $36.20 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 42.4% | 56.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.3% | 41.9% |
| Downside Capture | 59.41 | 9.52 |
| Upside Capture | 25.48 | 83.69 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 6.1% | 10.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.21 | -0.05 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 0.34 | 0.88 |
| Up Beta | -1.76 | -1.14 | -0.32 | -0.14 | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| Down Beta | 0.85 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.09 | -0.12 | 0.72 |
| Up Capture | 35% | -5% | 26% | 74% | 73% | 526% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 21 | 38 | 72 | 141 | 399 |
| Down Capture | -59% | 58% | 99% | 2% | 24% | 96% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 20 | 25 | 53 | 110 | 346 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APEI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APEI | 88.1% | 41.8% | 1.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.0% | 18.6% | 0.28 | 9.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.7% | 12.5% | 1.29 | 10.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.1% | 27.7% | 0.73 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.3% | 18.6% | 0.90 | -7.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.6% | 13.8% | 0.68 | 10.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.0% | 42.7% | -1.15 | 0.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APEI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APEI | 13.5% | 64.2% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.6% | 23.9% | 0.24 | 18.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 20.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.9% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.9% | 19.5% | 0.25 | 2.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 19.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.2% | 53.8% | 0.41 | 10.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APEI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APEI | 7.2% | 59.0% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.1% | 0.53 | 21.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 23.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.1% | 0.61 | -1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.7% | 18.0% | 0.25 | 5.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 18.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.0% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 4.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/12/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/11/2026 | -6.0% | -3.5% | -4.4% |
| 3/12/2026 | 21.2% | 14.6% | 20.3% |
| 11/10/2025 | 4.9% | 0.5% | 12.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | -7.9% | -7.0% | 0.2% |
| 5/12/2025 | 5.9% | 12.8% | 4.8% |
| 3/6/2025 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 14.2% |
| 11/12/2024 | 14.6% | 10.6% | 29.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | -27.9% | -18.8% | -9.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 13.5% | 9.6% | 12.2% |
| Median Negative | -11.5% | -8.0% | -9.5% |
| Max Positive | 36.9% | 38.4% | 93.5% |
| Max Negative | -50.8% | -56.5% | -44.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/11/2026 | -6.0% | -3.5% | -4.4% |
| 3/12/2026 | 21.2% | 14.6% | 20.3% |
| 11/10/2025 | 4.9% | 0.5% | 12.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | -7.9% | -7.0% | 0.2% |
| 5/12/2025 | 5.9% | 12.8% | 4.8% |
| 3/6/2025 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 14.2% |
| 11/12/2024 | 14.6% | 10.6% | 29.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | -27.9% | -18.8% | -9.5% |
| 5/7/2024 | 17.7% | 21.5% | 11.9% |
| 3/5/2024 | 36.9% | 7.9% | 21.4% |
| 11/7/2023 | 27.9% | 38.4% | 93.5% |
| 8/8/2023 | 12.5% | 3.4% | -5.2% |
| 5/9/2023 | 11.7% | 4.0% | -5.9% |
| 3/14/2023 | -50.8% | -56.5% | -29.6% |
| 11/8/2022 | 6.1% | 5.4% | 11.0% |
| 8/9/2022 | -20.4% | -24.4% | -44.2% |
| 5/10/2022 | -22.6% | -20.1% | -19.1% |
| 3/2/2022 | -0.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| 11/8/2021 | -3.7% | -3.5% | -12.7% |
| 8/9/2021 | -9.9% | -6.2% | -6.6% |
| 5/10/2021 | -13.1% | -8.0% | -7.1% |
| 3/9/2021 | 8.9% | 24.9% | 28.6% |
| 11/9/2020 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 9.6% |
| 8/10/2020 | 16.5% | 12.8% | -10.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 13.5% | 9.6% | 12.2% |
| Median Negative | -11.5% | -8.0% | -9.5% |
| Max Positive | 36.9% | 38.4% | 93.5% |
| Max Negative | -50.8% | -56.5% | -44.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/02/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/09/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/10/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/12/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 170.00 Mil | 171.00 Mil | 172.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| Q2 2026 Net Income | 6.50 Mil | 7.00 Mil | 7.50 Mil | Higher New | |||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 16.50 Mil | 17.25 Mil | 18.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| Q2 2026 Diluted Earnings per Share | 0.34 | 0.36 | 0.39 | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Revenue | 686.00 Mil | 691.00 Mil | 696.00 Mil | 0.1% | Raised | Guidance: 690.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Income | 44.90 Mil | 48.25 Mil | 51.60 Mil | 8.5% | Raised | Guidance: 44.45 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 93.00 Mil | 97.50 Mil | 102.00 Mil | 1.6% | Raised | Guidance: 96.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted Earnings per Share | 2.33 | 2.5 | 2.68 | 8.4% | Raised | Guidance: 2.31 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 28.00 Mil | 30.00 Mil | 32.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 30.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 173.00 Mil | 174.00 Mil | 175.00 Mil | 14.7% | Higher New | Actual: 151.75 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 25.50 Mil | 26.25 Mil | 27.00 Mil | 29.6% | Higher New | Actual: 20.25 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Diluted Earnings per Share | 0.58 | 0.61 | 0.64 | 58.4% | Higher New | Actual: 0.39 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 685.00 Mil | 690.00 Mil | 695.00 Mil | 7.5% | Higher New | Actual: 642.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 91.50 Mil | 96.00 Mil | 100.50 Mil | 24.7% | Higher New | Actual: 77.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 28.00 Mil | 30.00 Mil | 32.00 Mil | 87.5% | Higher New | Actual: 16.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beckett, Thomas | SVP, General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 54.00 | 2,000 | 108,000 | 2,817,288 | Form |
| 2 | Beckett, Thomas | SVP, General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 51.77 | 8,000 | 414,159 | 2,804,478 | Form |
| 3 | Fernandes, Nuno S | President, APUS | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 53.34 | 4,500 | 240,030 | 4,191,191 | Form |
| 4 | 325, Capital Llc | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 53.78 | 65,000 | 3,495,461 | 44,969,594 | Form | |
| 5 | 325, Capital Llc | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 54.76 | 95,512 | 5,230,615 | 49,355,144 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beckett, Thomas | SVP, General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 54.00 | 2,000 | 108,000 | 2,817,288 | Form |
| 2 | Beckett, Thomas | SVP, General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 51.77 | 8,000 | 414,159 | 2,804,478 | Form |
| 3 | Fernandes, Nuno S | President, APUS | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 53.34 | 4,500 | 240,030 | 4,191,191 | Form |
| 4 | 325, Capital Llc | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 53.78 | 65,000 | 3,495,461 | 44,969,594 | Form | |
| 5 | 325, Capital Llc | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 54.76 | 95,512 | 5,230,615 | 49,355,144 | Form | |
| 6 | Fernandes, Nuno S | President, APUS | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 54.08 | 1,100 | 59,488 | 4,492,696 | Form |
| 7 | 325, Capital Llc | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 55.41 | 63,500 | 3,518,700 | 55,232,287 | Form | |
| 8 | 325, Capital Llc | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 55.85 | 58,797 | 3,283,530 | 59,209,650 | Form | |
| 9 | 325, Capital Llc | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 55.45 | 61,962 | 3,435,613 | 62,047,689 | Form | |
| 10 | Beckett, Thomas | SVP, General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 57.70 | 2,000 | 115,400 | 3,587,324 | Form |
| 11 | Fernandes, Nuno S | President, APUS | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 53.87 | 6,500 | 350,129 | 4,534,171 | Form |
| 12 | Axenson, Tanya Joy | SVP, Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 55.68 | 20,000 | 1,113,577 | 2,779,321 | Form |
| 13 | Fernandes, Nuno S | President, APUS | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 34.68 | 5,500 | 190,740 | 2,852,395 | Form |
| 14 | Axenson, Tanya Joy | SVP, Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 34.77 | 10,363 | 360,305 | 2,030,579 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Education Services Resources |
| EdSurge |
| Education Week |
| Inside Higher Ed |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.