American Public Education (APEI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $37.64 | Market Cap: $680.2 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
American Public Education (APEI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $37.64Market Cap: $680.2 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.6%, Dist 3Y High is -4.6% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 74% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | Key risksAPEI key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on government funding, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Higher Education, Workforce Upskilling, and Adult & Lifelong Learning. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Higher Education, Workforce Upskilling, and Adult & Lifelong Learning. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.6%, Dist 3Y High is -4.6% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 74% |
| Key risksAPEI key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on government funding, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
APEI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. American Public Education reported exceptional third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 10, 2025, significantly exceeding analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company's EPS of $0.30 notably surpassed consensus estimates, with some reports indicating a surprise of over 400%, and consolidated revenue increased 7% year-over-year to $163.2 million, also exceeding forecasts.
2. The company demonstrated strong profitability and significant margin expansion in Q3 2025. Net income available to common stockholders surged 660% to $5.6 million compared to the prior year, and Adjusted EBITDA increased 60% to $20.7 million, driven by higher revenue and a 424 basis point margin expansion.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| APEI Return | 11% | -27% | -45% | -21% | 124% | 74% | 37% |
| Peers Return | -14% | -2% | 19% | 46% | 42% | -5% | 99% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| APEI Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 33% | 42% | 67% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 45% | 52% | 62% | 52% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| APEI Max Drawdown | -28% | -38% | -63% | -68% | 0% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -22% | -18% | -8% | -9% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ATGE, STRA, LRN, LOPE, PRDO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | APEI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 897.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 832 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 135 days | 1480 days |
Compare to LOPE, FCHL, GV, MH, MKTR
In The Past
American Public Education's stock fell -90.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/19/2021. A -90.0% loss requires a 897.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to APEI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for American Public Education
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 73.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,173 |
| Op Inc LTM | 262 |
| FCF LTM | 218 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 191 |
| CFO LTM | 241 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 214 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/EBIT | 15.3 |
| P/E | 21.3 |
| P/CFO | 13.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -19.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 114.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 44.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | 4.9% | 0.5% | 12.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | -7.9% | -7.0% | 0.2% |
| 3/6/2025 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 14.2% |
| 11/12/2024 | 14.6% | 10.6% | 29.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | -27.9% | -18.8% | -9.5% |
| 3/5/2024 | 36.9% | 7.9% | 21.4% |
| 11/7/2023 | 27.9% | 38.4% | 93.5% |
| 8/8/2023 | 12.5% | 3.4% | -5.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 13.5% | 8.8% | 13.3% |
| Median Negative | -8.9% | -12.9% | -10.1% |
| Max Positive | 36.9% | 38.4% | 93.5% |
| Max Negative | -50.8% | -56.5% | -44.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11102025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3022022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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