Aemetis (AMTX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.62 | Market Cap: $103.2 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Specialty Chemicals
Aemetis (AMTX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.62Market Cap: $103.2 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Specialty Chemicals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -113%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -24% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 243% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -27% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -65% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -113%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -24% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 243% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -27% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 85% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -65% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AMTX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Aemetis (AMTX) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Aemetis reported a significant Q3 2025 earnings miss. The company posted an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.37, falling short of the forecasted -$0.19, and revenue of $59.2 million, which was below the expected $87.44 million. This performance led to an initial stock drop of 10.34% in pre-market trading following the announcement.
2. Revenue in key segments fell short of expectations. While total revenues increased by $7 million compared to Q2 2025, they were still below forecasts, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving projected financial targets. The India Biodiesel segment, in particular, faced delays in government contracts.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMTX Return | 200% | 394% | -68% | 32% | -49% | -41% | 92% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 41% | -40% | 6% | 21% | 13% | 46% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMTX Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 33% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 62% | 35% | 47% | 48% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMTX Max Drawdown | -55% | 0% | -70% | -56% | -58% | -54% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -4% | -55% | -29% | -32% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FUL, GEVO, FSI, LOOP, SHW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMTX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1413.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -82.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 469.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 600 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -99.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11955.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1954 days | 1480 days |
Compare to FUL, GEVO, FSI, LOOP, SHW
In The Past
Aemetis's stock fell -93.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2021. A -93.4% loss requires a 1413.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Aemetis Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AMTX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Aemetis
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.58 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 141 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2 |
| FCF LTM | -0 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -7 |
| CFO LTM | 2 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -2 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -5.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -6.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 4.1 |
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/CFO | 3.4 |
| Total Yield | -6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.8% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -18.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -7.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -24.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -31.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -74.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3102022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BARTON FRANCIS P | 8142025 | Sell | 2.53 | 1,300 | 3,294 | 592,003 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |