Allurion Technologies (ALUR)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $1.52 | Market Cap: $11.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Allurion Technologies (ALUR)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $1.52Market Cap: $11.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Weight Management Solutions, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -141% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -41 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -238% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -50% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -340%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -346% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 71% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1818% | ||
| Key risksALUR key risks include [1] securing critical FDA approval for its products, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Weight Management Solutions, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -141% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -41 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -238% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -50%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -50% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -340%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -346% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 71% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1818% |
| Key risksALUR key risks include [1] securing critical FDA approval for its products, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ALUR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Allurion Technologies reported a significant 50% year-over-year decrease in its Q3 2025 revenue, falling to $2.7 million from $5.4 million in the same period last year. This decline was primarily attributed to distributor transitions and reduced sales and marketing investments.
2. The company experienced a compression in its gross profit and margin in Q3 2025. Gross profit decreased to $1.3 million, and the gross margin fell to 49% from 58% in Q3 2024, mainly due to lower sales and reduced production volumes.
3. Allurion Technologies continued to incur substantial operating losses, reporting $9.6 million in Q3 2025. Despite narrowing the operating loss, expenses remained high relative to the company's revenue base.
4. The company implemented a restructuring in Q3 2025, which included a 65% workforce reduction, and announced a strategic pivot to refocus on certain weight loss solutions. These initiatives, while potentially beneficial long-term, imply near-term operational disruption and market volatility.
5. Allurion secured a $5 million private placement financing at $1.67 per share in November 2025. While this strengthened the company's financial position and aimed to eliminate outstanding debt, the pricing of the shares at $1.67 could have been perceived as a lower valuation or a signal of potential dilution to existing shareholders, especially if the stock was trading at a higher price previously.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALUR Return | � | � | � | � | -100% | 258% | � |
| Peers Return | 13% | 24% | 0% | 23% | 28% | 24% | 173% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALUR Win Rate | � | � | � | 50% | 25% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 52% | 55% | 52% | 60% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALUR Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -100% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -7% | -23% | -11% | -3% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BSX, MDT, JNJ, ISRG, LLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
ALUR has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1100 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Allurion Technologies Earnings Notes | ||
| Allurion Technologies Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ALUR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Allurion Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 154.47 |
| Mkt Cap | 169.4 |
| Rev LTM | 27,054 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,220 |
| FCF LTM | 2,950 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,875 |
| CFO LTM | 5,870 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,966 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 169.4 |
| P/S | 6.2 |
| P/EBIT | 38.5 |
| P/E | 38.1 |
| P/CFO | 24.9 |
| Total Yield | 2.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 106.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 32.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | 0.7% | -4.7% | 12.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | -2.9% | -9.8% | -21.0% |
| 3/26/2025 | 0.3% | 6.4% | -25.1% |
| 11/13/2024 | -26.3% | -42.3% | -51.4% |
| 8/13/2024 | -2.1% | -16.5% | -22.0% |
| 3/21/2024 | -4.3% | -16.2% | -5.2% |
| 11/13/2023 | 1.7% | 2.4% | -19.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| # Negative | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 0.7% | 4.4% | 12.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -16.2% | -21.5% |
| Max Positive | 1.7% | 6.4% | 12.1% |
| Max Negative | -26.3% | -42.3% | -51.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11172025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8192025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 10202023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 7072023 | 424B3 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2142023 | DRS 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |