Tearsheet

Aspen Insurance (AHL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.015 | Market Cap: $3.4 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Aspen Insurance (AHL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.015
Market Cap: $3.4 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 17%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.5%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -204%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
 
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Cyber Insurance Solutions, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 17%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -204%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Cyber Insurance Solutions, Show more.
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AHL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the movement of Aspen Insurance (AHL) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025: 1. Announcement of Acquisition by Sompo Holdings: On August 27, 2025, Sompo Holdings announced a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd. (AHL) for $37.50 per share in cash. This acquisition agreement would be the most significant factor influencing AHL's stock price during this period, establishing a clear acquisition price that the stock would likely trade near.

2. Substantial Acquisition Premium: The offer price of $37.50 per share represented a substantial 35.6% premium over Aspen's unaffected share price of $27.66 on August 19, 2025, just prior to speculation about the transaction. This significant premium would cause the stock price to adjust sharply upwards towards the offer price around the beginning of the specified period.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AHL Return------ 
Peers Return4%27%11%16%31%11%150%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AHL Win Rate-----80% 
Peers Win Rate60%57%53%62%68%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AHL Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-6%-11%-14%-1%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

AHL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4470 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Aspen Insurance (AHL)

Better Bets than Aspen Insurance (AHL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

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Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AHL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Aspen Insurance

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AHLHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameAspen In.Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Mkt Price37.02131.8658.37227.20295.05282.50179.53
Mkt Cap3.437.015.9133.2117.263.350.2
Rev LTM3,16327,69213,29782,37658,90048,40938,050
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM4805,8656,72716,47213,3219,9858,356
FCF 3Y Avg-4,9226,25012,35013,4098,6828,682
CFO LTM5065,9886,87216,80013,3219,9858,428
CFO 3Y Avg-5,1096,38812,63413,4098,6828,682

Growth & Margins

AHLHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameAspen In.Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Rev Chg LTM6.5%6.9%7.4%21.5%6.7%6.7%6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.1%8.6%-0.7%20.0%12.2%10.1%10.6%
Rev Chg Q-6.5%6.4%16.8%21.3%8.2%4.8%7.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.5%1.6%4.0%4.9%2.2%1.2%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM16.0%21.6%51.7%20.4%22.6%20.6%21.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-19.6%51.9%18.0%24.8%19.4%19.6%
FCF/Rev LTM15.2%21.2%50.6%20.0%22.6%20.6%20.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-18.9%50.8%17.6%24.8%19.4%19.4%

Valuation

AHLHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameAspen In.Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
Mkt Cap3.437.015.9133.2117.263.350.2
P/S0.91.41.11.91.91.31.3
P/EBIT6.98.19.111.78.58.18.3
P/E7.410.514.215.011.610.611.1
P/CFO5.76.32.29.38.46.36.3
Total Yield14.3%11.1%10.6%8.5%10.0%10.2%10.4%
Dividend Yield0.7%1.6%3.6%1.8%1.3%0.8%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-15.8%50.1%10.3%12.9%17.2%15.8%
D/E0.10.10.30.00.20.10.1
Net D/E-2.0-0.5-1.8-0.0-0.2-1.4-0.9

Returns

AHLHIGFNFPGRCBTRVMedian
NameAspen In.Hartford.Fidelity.Progress.Chubb Traveler. 
1M Rtn0.7%3.5%4.6%8.4%3.3%1.9%3.4%
3M Rtn1.0%-1.7%-2.6%-8.7%5.8%1.5%-0.3%
6M Rtn8.8%3.8%10.0%-18.9%1.9%5.1%4.5%
12M Rtn-11.2%-3.0%-11.0%5.1%9.7%5.1%
3Y Rtn-87.2%75.7%78.3%43.1%59.9%75.7%
1M Excs Rtn-0.5%2.3%3.3%7.1%2.0%0.6%2.1%
3M Excs Rtn-4.7%-5.2%-8.6%-12.6%0.6%-2.7%-4.9%
6M Excs Rtn-6.7%-11.6%-5.5%-34.3%-13.6%-10.3%-11.0%
12M Excs Rtn--2.8%-17.6%-25.6%-10.3%-4.4%-10.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-12.1%-0.5%5.2%-31.1%-13.3%-0.5%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,546,486
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-8.4%
Average Daily Volume299,408
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.17
Basic Shares Quantity90,976,909
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202581320256-K 6/30/2025
331202560320256-K 3/31/2025
12312024319202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024111420246-K 9/30/2024
630202481420246-K 6/30/2024
12312023401202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023112220236-K 9/30/2023
630202382220236-K 6/30/2023
12312022420202320-F 12/31/2022
630202290720226-K 6/30/2022
12312021516202220-F 12/31/2021
630202190720216-K 6/30/2021
12312020409202120-F 12/31/2020
6302020102020206-K 6/30/2020
12312019406202020-F 12/31/2019
630201981520196-K 6/30/2019