Aspen Insurance (AHL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.015 | Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Aspen Insurance (AHL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.015Market Cap: $3.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 17% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.5% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -204% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Cyber Insurance Solutions, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 17% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -204% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Cyber Insurance Solutions, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AHL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of Aspen Insurance (AHL) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Announcement of Acquisition by Sompo Holdings: On August 27, 2025, Sompo Holdings announced a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd. (AHL) for $37.50 per share in cash. This acquisition agreement would be the most significant factor influencing AHL's stock price during this period, establishing a clear acquisition price that the stock would likely trade near.
2. Substantial Acquisition Premium: The offer price of $37.50 per share represented a substantial 35.6% premium over Aspen's unaffected share price of $27.66 on August 19, 2025, just prior to speculation about the transaction. This significant premium would cause the stock price to adjust sharply upwards towards the offer price around the beginning of the specified period.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AHL Return | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Return | 4% | 27% | 11% | 16% | 31% | 11% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AHL Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 57% | 53% | 62% | 68% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AHL Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -6% | -11% | -14% | -1% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HIG, FNF, PGR, CB, TRV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
AHL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4470 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AHL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Aspen Insurance
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 179.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 50.2 |
| Rev LTM | 38,050 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 8,356 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,682 |
| CFO LTM | 8,428 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,682 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 50.2 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 8.3 |
| P/E | 11.1 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | 10.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 15.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 75.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 6032025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3192025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4012024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11222023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8222023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4202023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 6302022 | 9072022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 5162022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
| 6302021 | 9072021 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
| 12312020 | 4092021 | 20-F 12/31/2020 |
| 6302020 | 10202020 | 6-K 6/30/2020 |
| 12312019 | 4062020 | 20-F 12/31/2019 |
| 6302019 | 8152019 | 6-K 6/30/2019 |
External Quote Links
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