Axe Compute (AGPU)
Market Price (2/3/2026): $2.7 | Market Cap: $1.2 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Axe Compute (AGPU)
Market Price (2/3/2026): $2.7Market Cap: $1.2 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Advanced AI Accelerators, Edge AI Infrastructure, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -91%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -120% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -11 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -674% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 117% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.9% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -676%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -677% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -1062% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 161% | ||
| Key risksAGPU key risks include [1] its total business model dependency on the operational stability of the third-party Aethir decentralized GPU network and [2] significant liquidity challenges, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Advanced AI Accelerators, Edge AI Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -91%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -120% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -11 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -674% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 117% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.9% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -676%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -677% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -1062% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 161% |
| Key risksAGPU key risks include [1] its total business model dependency on the operational stability of the third-party Aethir decentralized GPU network and [2] significant liquidity challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant Net Loss and Derivative Liability Impact: Axe Compute, under its previous name Predictive Oncology Inc., reported a substantial net loss of $77.7 million in Q3 2025. This loss was primarily driven by a $74.4 million non-cash charge related to the re-measurement of a derivative liability, which was associated with a securities purchase contract for the company's digital asset treasury strategy.
2. Negative Gross Margins and Declining Revenue: The company has experienced severe profitability issues, evidenced by a deeply negative gross margin of -130.96%, which worsened by nearly 30% year-over-year. Additionally, revenue declined by 7.4% year-over-year in Q3 2025, indicating that the core business is struggling to achieve sustainable profitability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGPU | ||
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 12.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | -5.5% | 16.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGPU | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 12.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 8.3% | 16.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGPU | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 12.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 23.7% | 16.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGPU | ||
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 12.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 113.3% | 16.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AGPU Return | - | - | - | - | 32% | -61% | -48% |
| Peers Return | 36% | -52% | 122% | 16% | 48% | 15% | 186% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 86% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AGPU Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 100% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 35% | 62% | 50% | 51% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AGPU Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -1% | -65% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -61% | -13% | -32% | -26% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CRWV, NVDA, AMD, INTC, RXRX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
AGPU has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,183 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CRWV, NVDA, AMD, INTC, RXRX
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Axe Compute (AGPU)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Axe Compute (AGPU):
- The next Nvidia for specialized AI chips.
- AWS for AI supercomputing.
- An Intel purely dedicated to advanced AI processors and solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- AGPU Series AI Accelerators: Specialized hardware chips designed for high-performance artificial intelligence training and inference.
- Axe Cloud Compute Platform: A service providing scalable, on-demand access to AGPU hardware and related infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing workloads.
- Axe AI Software Suite: A collection of optimized software tools, libraries, and frameworks for developing and deploying AI models on AGPU hardware.
AI Analysis | Feedback
I am unable to identify the major customers for "Axe Compute" (symbol: AGPU) because this company name and stock symbol do not correspond to an existing publicly traded company.
Publicly available financial databases and company registries do not list "Axe Compute" as a public entity under the symbol AGPU.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Raymond Vennare, CEO & Chairman
Raymond Vennare has served as Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Axe Compute Inc. (formerly Predictive Oncology Inc.) since November 1, 2022. Prior to his role at Axe Compute, he co-founded ThermalTherapeutic Systems, Inc. in 2006, where he held the position of Executive Vice President.
Joshua Blacher, Interim Chief Financial Officer
Joshua Blacher is the Interim Chief Financial Officer of Axe Compute.
Thomas McLaughlin, Chief Investment Officer
Thomas McLaughlin serves as the Chief Investment Officer for Axe Compute.
Sara Turken, Senior VP & General Counsel
Sara Turken holds the position of Senior Vice President and General Counsel at Axe Compute.
Arlette Uihlein, Senior VP of Translational Medicine & Drug Discovery and Medical Director
Arlette Uihlein is the Senior Vice President of Translational Medicine & Drug Discovery and Medical Director at Axe Compute.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Axe Compute (symbol: AGPU) primarily revolve around its new business model as an AI infrastructure operator and its financial standing.
- Reliance on the Aethir Decentralized GPU Network: Axe Compute's business model is heavily dependent on commercializing access to Aethir's decentralized GPU network to provide scalable, cost-efficient cloud GPU services to enterprise clients. This reliance means that any operational, technological, or security issues within the Aethir network, or Aethir's ability to maintain and expand its infrastructure of over 435,000 GPU containers, could directly impair Axe Compute's ability to deliver its core services and meet customer demands. Furthermore, the decentralized nature of Aethir's network may introduce unique, evolving risks related to its stability, governance, and regulatory landscape.
- Intense Competition and Market Adoption in AI Infrastructure: Axe Compute operates in the highly competitive and rapidly evolving market for AI infrastructure and cloud GPU services. While the company aims to address a bottleneck in AI compute capacity, it faces competition from established centralized cloud providers and other emerging players. Its success hinges on its ability to effectively compete on factors such as cost, reliability, scalability, and its unique proposition of utilizing a decentralized network, as well as securing significant market adoption for its services.
- Financial Performance and Liquidity Concerns: Axe Compute, having recently restructured from Predictive Oncology, is not yet profitable and is reported to be quickly burning through cash. Although analysts anticipate sales growth for the current year, the company's ability to achieve sustained profitability and manage its cash flow effectively, particularly during this period of business expansion, is a significant risk. Additionally, InvestingPro analysis indicates that Axe Compute operates with a moderate level of debt, and its short-term obligations currently exceed its liquid assets, posing potential liquidity challenges.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Axe Compute (symbol: AGPU) operates in two primary markets: high-performance enterprise AI infrastructure and AI-driven drug discovery.
For its high-performance enterprise AI infrastructure and AI cloud services, the global addressable market is projected to exceed $400 billion in 2025.
For its AI-driven drug discovery services, the global artificial intelligence (AI) in pharmaceutical market, which includes AI in drug discovery, is estimated to be valued at approximately $1.47 billion in 2025. Another projection for the global AI in drug discovery market estimates its size at $4.6 billion in 2025. The market is expected to grow significantly, with one projection indicating it will reach approximately $16.49 billion by 2034. North America is a dominant region within this market, holding an estimated 41.7% market share in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Axe Compute (AGPU) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through the following key initiatives:
- Expansion into High-Performance Enterprise AI Infrastructure: Axe Compute recently rebranded and is strategically expanding into high-performance enterprise AI infrastructure. This move aims to meet the increasing global demand for predictable and scalable compute capacity required for enterprise AI workloads.
- Monetization of GPU Capacity via Aethir Network: The company plans to acquire rights to digital assets tied to AI infrastructure, starting with capacity on the Aethir network. It will then deploy these assets to serve enterprise clients under service contracts, generating revenue from token rewards and the margin between infrastructure acquisition costs and enterprise billing rates. This strategy directly addresses the extended procurement timelines for high-end GPU hardware and capacity constraints faced by centralized cloud providers.
- Growth of AI-Driven Drug Discovery Business: Axe Compute will continue to operate its existing AI-driven drug discovery business. While the focus is expanding into new AI infrastructure, the sustained operation and potential growth within its original segment will contribute to overall revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
No significant share repurchases were identified for Axe Compute (AGPU) or its predecessor, Predictive Oncology Inc., in the last 3-5 years. The "Issuance (Repurchase) of Capital Stock" data from Zacks for various quarters in 2024 and 2025 shows positive values, indicating share issuances rather than repurchases.
Share Issuance
- Shareholders approved an amendment to the company's 2024 Equity Incentive Plan in 2025, increasing the shares available for issuance by 1,000,000.
- The company issued capital stock amounting to $4.61 million in Q2 2025, $3.17 million in Q1 2025, and $2.58 million in Q4 2024.
- Additional capital stock issuances were $4.96 million in both Q3 2024 and Q2 2024.
Inbound Investments
- In June 2025, Predictive Oncology (now Axe Compute) announced a $10 million share purchase agreement in partnership with Yorkville Advisors to advance AI-driven drug discovery and repurposing.
Outbound Investments
- Axe Compute, post-rebranding in December 2025, plans to acquire rights to digital assets tied to AI infrastructure, starting with capacity on the Aethir network, to provide guaranteed GPU capacity and services to enterprise clients.
Capital Expenditures
No specific dollar values for historical capital expenditures were found for Axe Compute or its predecessor in the provided timeframe. However, the company's expansion into high-performance enterprise AI infrastructure, which involves securing GPU capacity and services through the Aethir network, indicates a future focus on investments in AI infrastructure.
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 68.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 140.5 |
| Rev LTM | 18,167 |
| Op Inc LTM | 73 |
| FCF LTM | -231 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -12 |
| CFO LTM | 4,047 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,461 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 49.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -98.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -21.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 140.5 |
| P/S | 10.8 |
| P/EBIT | 63.4 |
| P/E | -1.3 |
| P/CFO | 25.3 |
| Total Yield | -0.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 74.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 94.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 56.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 31.9% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2024 | 03/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/31/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/11/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/12/2021 | 10-Q |
External Quote Links
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