Tearsheet

Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG)


Market Price (11/8/2025): $3.12 | Market Cap: $69.0 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs

Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG)


Market Price (11/8/2025): $3.12
Market Cap: $69.0 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Mortgage REITs

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 139%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 15%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -24%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -66%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 15%
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 139%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -24%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -66%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

AFCG Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AFCG Return---21%-10%8%-59%-69%
Peers Return-7%14%-14%4%0%4%-1%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AFCG Win Rate-78%50%33%33%20% 
Peers Win Rate55%62%50%45%52%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AFCG Max Drawdown---32%-31%-7%-57% 
Peers Max Drawdown-63%-5%-29%-17%-16%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, RC, LOAN, ADAM, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/7/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAFCGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-58.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven141.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to DX, RC, LOAN, ADAM, NLY


In The Past

Advanced Flower Capital's stock fell -58.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -58.6% loss requires a 141.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG)

Better Bets than Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AFCG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BRO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025BROBrown & BrownDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-4.2%
CPAY_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025CPAYCorpayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%0.0%
EEFT_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025EEFTEuronet WorldwideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.7%-4.7%-4.9%
GPN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GPNGlobal PaymentsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.2%-2.2%-2.2%
APO_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025APOApollo Asset ManagementDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.0%12.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BRO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025BROBrown & BrownDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-4.2%
CPAY_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025CPAYCorpayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%0.0%
EEFT_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025EEFTEuronet WorldwideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.7%-4.7%-4.9%
GPN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GPNGlobal PaymentsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.2%-2.2%-2.2%
APO_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025APOApollo Asset ManagementDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.0%12.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Advanced Flower Capital

Financials

AFCGDXRCLOANADAMNLYMedian
NameAdvanced.Dynex Ca.Ready Ca.Manhatta.Adamas T.Annaly C. 
Mkt Price3.1213.622.944.927.0021.905.96
Mkt Cap0.11.90.50.10.614.40.6
Rev LTM232304072861,703135
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM1112225951011,953111
FCF 3Y Avg22712055411,26056
CFO LTM1112225951012,857111
CFO 3Y Avg22712055411,97656

Growth & Margins

AFCGDXRCLOANADAMNLYMedian
NameAdvanced.Dynex Ca.Ready Ca.Manhatta.Adamas T.Annaly C. 
Rev Chg LTM-51.5%87.1%-67.4%-3.5%-16.0%473.5%-9.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-24.3%63.4%-43.2%2.5%130.1%143.3%33.0%
Rev Chg Q-65.6%309.0%75.1%-9.2%9.4%637.1%42.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-30.1%113.8%92.2%-2.2%3.2%81.6%42.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM46.2%52.8%652.8%71.0%35.3%167.8%61.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg48.4%77.6%260.4%70.9%15.5%-70.9%
FCF/Rev LTM46.2%52.8%652.8%71.0%35.3%114.7%61.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg48.4%77.6%260.4%70.8%15.5%-70.8%

Valuation

AFCGDXRCLOANADAMNLYMedian
NameAdvanced.Dynex Ca.Ready Ca.Manhatta.Adamas T.Annaly C. 
Mkt Cap0.11.90.50.10.614.40.6
P/S3.08.012.57.92.28.48.0
P/EBIT-------
P/E-7.910.0-1.610.69.99.69.7
P/CFO6.515.21.911.16.35.06.4
Total Yield-12.6%10.0%-27.3%18.8%21.6%10.4%10.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%33.8%9.3%11.5%0.0%4.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg13.1%6.8%19.8%8.5%6.3%11.4%9.9%
D/E1.40.08.10.36.92.01.7
Net D/E1.4-0.37.80.34.02.01.7

Returns

AFCGDXRCLOANADAMNLYMedian
NameAdvanced.Dynex Ca.Ready Ca.Manhatta.Adamas T.Annaly C. 
1M Rtn-17.9%5.6%-18.6%-8.8%1.4%4.5%-3.7%
3M Rtn-27.6%14.2%-25.5%-8.5%8.9%10.0%0.2%
6M Rtn-39.8%19.0%-24.4%-1.4%14.5%22.2%6.5%
12M Rtn-63.1%27.7%-52.5%-0.7%35.1%29.5%13.5%
3Y Rtn-60.1%73.2%-65.1%15.5%-1.9%73.9%6.8%
1M Excs Rtn-13.5%6.5%-14.9%-6.7%2.6%4.9%-2.1%
3M Excs Rtn-35.8%9.7%-25.3%-12.3%3.9%5.4%-4.2%
6M Excs Rtn-58.6%0.1%-43.3%-20.3%-4.4%3.4%-12.4%
12M Excs Rtn-79.7%12.9%-67.4%-16.7%23.0%14.4%-1.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-139.5%-2.1%-141.8%-60.3%-80.1%3.3%-70.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,792,551
Short Interest: % Change Since 930202517.6%
Average Daily Volume235,200
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.62
Basic Shares Quantity22,114,341
Short % of Basic Shares8.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/14/2025-3.7%-20.8%1.5%
3/13/2025-20.4%-24.7%-41.2%
11/13/2024-2.2%1.9%-0.3%
8/7/20248.3%14.1%18.7%
3/7/20241.9%9.1%9.2%
11/8/2023-1.5%2.2%10.7%
8/8/2023-2.4%-3.0%-3.1%
3/7/20230.3%-18.4%-20.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive896
# Negative658
Median Positive1.3%3.5%9.7%
Median Negative-2.7%-18.4%-3.6%
Max Positive8.3%14.1%18.7%
Max Negative-20.4%-24.7%-41.2%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024313202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023307202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022307202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021310202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211104202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0TANNENBAUM LEONARD M 9082025Buy4.5679,665363,27222,627,500Form
1Neville DanielChief Executive Officer9082025Buy4.4412,38855,003930,842Form
2TANNENBAUM LEONARD M 9032025Buy4.4936,096162,07121,756,946Form
3TANNENBAUM LEONARD M 8292025Buy4.81330,1271,587,91122,439,372Form
4Neville DanielChief Executive Officer8262025Buy4.0410,00040,400796,934Form