Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.0 | Market Cap: $66.3 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.0Market Cap: $66.3 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 97% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.53 | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -24%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -66% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Cannabis Industry Capital, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Private Credit, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Cannabis Industry Capital, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Private Credit, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.53 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 97% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -24%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -66% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AFCG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG) experienced a stock decline of approximately 35.6% between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, primarily due to several key factors: 1. 1. Significant Net Loss and Decline in Assets and Shareholder Equity in Q2 2025. Advanced Flower Capital reported a net loss of $(13.2) million for the second quarter of 2025, a significant reversal from the net income of $5.6 million in the same period of 2024. This was accompanied by a 27.7% reduction in total assets, which decreased to $290.6 million as of June 30, 2025, from $402.1 million at the end of 2024. Shareholders' equity also saw a decline to $184.7 million from $201.4 million. 2. 2. Continued Challenging Conditions in the Cannabis Finance Sector. The company, a specialized lender to state-licensed cannabis operators, continued to face challenging conditions within the cannabis finance sector. This industry-specific headwind contributed to a difficult operating environment for AFCG. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AFCG Return | - | - | -21% | -10% | 8% | -61% | -71% |
| Peers Return | -14% | 10% | -19% | 2% | 6% | 3% | -14% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AFCG Win Rate | - | 78% | 50% | 33% | 33% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 57% | 50% | 45% | 55% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AFCG Max Drawdown | - | - | -32% | -31% | -7% | -66% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -64% | -6% | -34% | -22% | -11% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AFCG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY
In The Past
Advanced Flower Capital's stock fell -58.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -58.6% loss requires a 141.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Advanced Flower Capital Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AFCG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Advanced Flower Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 48 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 140 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 133 |
| CFO LTM | 140 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 133 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -16.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 33.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 119.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 77.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 92.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 77.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/CFO | 7.0 |
| Total Yield | 10.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 6.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -66.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3102022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11042021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |