Tearsheet

Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.0 | Market Cap: $66.3 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs

Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.0
Market Cap: $66.3 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Mortgage REITs

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 97%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 11%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.53
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -24%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -66%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Cannabis Industry Capital, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Private Credit, Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 11%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, Cannabis Industry Capital, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Private Credit, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.53
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 97%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -24%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -66%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AFCG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG) experienced a stock decline of approximately 35.6% between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, primarily due to several key factors: 1. 1. Significant Net Loss and Decline in Assets and Shareholder Equity in Q2 2025. Advanced Flower Capital reported a net loss of $(13.2) million for the second quarter of 2025, a significant reversal from the net income of $5.6 million in the same period of 2024. This was accompanied by a 27.7% reduction in total assets, which decreased to $290.6 million as of June 30, 2025, from $402.1 million at the end of 2024. Shareholders' equity also saw a decline to $184.7 million from $201.4 million. 2. 2. Continued Challenging Conditions in the Cannabis Finance Sector. The company, a specialized lender to state-licensed cannabis operators, continued to face challenging conditions within the cannabis finance sector. This industry-specific headwind contributed to a difficult operating environment for AFCG. 3.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AFCG Return---21%-10%8%-61%-71%
Peers Return-14%10%-19%2%6%3%-14%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AFCG Win Rate-78%50%33%33%20% 
Peers Win Rate53%57%50%45%55%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AFCG Max Drawdown---32%-31%-7%-66% 
Peers Max Drawdown-64%-6%-34%-22%-11%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAFCGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-58.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven141.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY


In The Past

Advanced Flower Capital's stock fell -58.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -58.6% loss requires a 141.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG)

Better Bets than Advanced Flower Capital (AFCG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AFCG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Advanced Flower Capital

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AFCGDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameAdvanced.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Price2.8913.948.232.624.6922.796.46
Mkt Cap0.11.90.60.40.115.00.5
Rev LTM23230722271,70348
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM1112215947251,953140
FCF 3Y Avg227119632951,260133
CFO LTM1112215947252,857140
CFO 3Y Avg227119632951,976133

Growth & Margins

AFCGDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameAdvanced.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Rev Chg LTM-51.5%87.1%-29.9%-73.3%-3.5%473.5%-16.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-24.3%63.4%241.0%-52.8%2.5%143.3%33.0%
Rev Chg Q-65.6%309.0%27.8%-29.1%-9.2%637.1%9.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-30.1%113.8%21.1%-45.4%-2.2%81.6%9.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM46.2%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%167.8%119.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg48.4%77.6%790.7%851.6%70.9%-77.6%
FCF/Rev LTM46.2%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%114.7%92.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg48.4%77.6%790.7%851.6%70.8%-77.6%

Valuation

AFCGDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameAdvanced.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Cap0.11.90.60.40.115.00.5
P/S4.37.37.129.38.87.87.5
P/EBIT-------
P/E-11.49.19.6-2.011.98.99.0
P/CFO9.413.83.21.312.44.67.0
Total Yield-8.8%11.1%10.4%-27.7%16.8%11.3%10.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%21.4%8.4%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg13.1%6.8%40.1%36.2%8.5%11.4%12.2%
D/E1.00.00.06.00.22.20.6
Net D/E1.0-0.3-0.15.70.22.20.6

Returns

AFCGDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameAdvanced.Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
1M Rtn-9.1%5.7%7.0%-9.7%-5.8%6.0%-0.1%
3M Rtn-34.8%13.6%7.9%-36.5%-11.0%8.2%-1.6%
6M Rtn-42.1%24.9%19.3%-33.8%-4.2%29.6%7.5%
12M Rtn-64.9%29.9%18.9%-58.8%-6.7%33.6%6.1%
3Y Rtn-64.5%63.3%5.5%-69.5%6.4%62.1%6.0%
1M Excs Rtn-10.4%4.4%5.8%-10.9%-7.1%4.7%-1.3%
3M Excs Rtn-40.3%6.4%2.1%-42.8%-16.8%0.9%-7.9%
6M Excs Rtn-57.6%9.4%3.9%-49.2%-19.7%14.1%-7.9%
12M Excs Rtn-79.1%16.7%4.7%-74.3%-19.5%18.3%-7.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-137.5%-9.2%-65.9%-143.5%-66.5%-10.8%-66.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,678,434
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-7.5%
Average Daily Volume159,368
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.53
Basic Shares Quantity22,114,341
Short % of Basic Shares7.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024313202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023307202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022307202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021310202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211104202110-Q 9/30/2021