ADC Therapeutics (ADCT)
Market Price (7/25/2026): $1.18 | Market Cap: $181.9 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
ADC Therapeutics (ADCT)
Market Price (7/25/2026): $1.18Market Cap: $181.9 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -68% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -104 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -132% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.5% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -145%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -145% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -82% Key risksADCT key risks include [1] a precarious financial position with a limited cash runway, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -68% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -101%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -104 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -132% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.5% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -145%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -145% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -82% |
| Key risksADCT key risks include [1] a precarious financial position with a limited cash runway, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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ADC Therapeutics (ADCT) stock has lost about 70% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Adverse Safety Profile in LOTIS-5 Phase 3 Trial Raised Significant Concerns.
ADC Therapeutics announced topline data from its Phase 3 LOTIS-5 confirmatory trial on June 3, 2026, evaluating ZYNLONTA in combination with rituximab for relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (r/r DLBCL). While the trial met its primary endpoint of progression-free survival (PFS) with statistical significance (median PFS of 6.1 months vs. 4.7 months for the control arm), it revealed a higher incidence of serious adverse events and treatment-related deaths in the ZYNLONTA arm, particularly in patients aged 75 years or older. Approximately 13% of patients in the treatment arm experienced Grade 5 treatment-emergent adverse events (deaths) compared to approximately 5% in the control arm. This safety profile raised questions among investors and analysts regarding the overall benefit-risk profile and ZYNLONTA's expanded market potential, despite a planned supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) submission in fiscal Q4 2026.
2. Widespread Analyst Downgrades and Lowered Price Targets Followed LOTIS-5 Results.
Following the announcement of the LOTIS-5 trial data, multiple analyst firms downgraded ADC Therapeutics' stock and significantly reduced their price targets. For instance, RBC Capital Markets downgraded the stock and lowered its price target, while HC Wainwright lowered its rating from "buy" to "neutral" on June 8, 2026. The consensus rating among covering analysts shifted to "Hold", with the average 1-year target price dropping to $6.25 from an earlier consensus of $7.00, reflecting a reassessment of the company's commercial prospects for ZYNLONTA.
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ADC Therapeutics (ADCT) stock has lost about 70% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Adverse Safety Profile in LOTIS-5 Phase 3 Trial Raised Significant Concerns.
ADC Therapeutics announced topline data from its Phase 3 LOTIS-5 confirmatory trial on June 3, 2026, evaluating ZYNLONTA in combination with rituximab for relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (r/r DLBCL). While the trial met its primary endpoint of progression-free survival (PFS) with statistical significance (median PFS of 6.1 months vs. 4.7 months for the control arm), it revealed a higher incidence of serious adverse events and treatment-related deaths in the ZYNLONTA arm, particularly in patients aged 75 years or older. Approximately 13% of patients in the treatment arm experienced Grade 5 treatment-emergent adverse events (deaths) compared to approximately 5% in the control arm. This safety profile raised questions among investors and analysts regarding the overall benefit-risk profile and ZYNLONTA's expanded market potential, despite a planned supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) submission in fiscal Q4 2026.
2. Widespread Analyst Downgrades and Lowered Price Targets Followed LOTIS-5 Results.
Following the announcement of the LOTIS-5 trial data, multiple analyst firms downgraded ADC Therapeutics' stock and significantly reduced their price targets. For instance, RBC Capital Markets downgraded the stock and lowered its price target, while HC Wainwright lowered its rating from "buy" to "neutral" on June 8, 2026. The consensus rating among covering analysts shifted to "Hold", with the average 1-year target price dropping to $6.25 from an earlier consensus of $7.00, reflecting a reassessment of the company's commercial prospects for ZYNLONTA.
3. Significant Insider Selling by a Major Shareholder.
Entities managed by Redmile Group, a major shareholder, reported significant open-market sales of ADC Therapeutics common stock. Between March 31 and April 2, 2026, Redmile Group sold a combined 5,880,415 shares at weighted average prices ranging from approximately $3.28 to $3.80 per share. This series of transactions represented a divestment exceeding $19 million (calculated at the lower end of the price range), signaling a notable lack of confidence from a key institutional investor early in the period.
4. Q1 2026 Earnings Miss and Year-over-Year Revenue Decline.
ADC Therapeutics reported its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 4, 2026, posting an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.21, which missed the consensus analyst estimate of -$0.19 by $0.02. Although quarterly revenue of $20.85 million slightly exceeded analyst estimates, the net product revenue of $20.0 million for Q1 2026 represented a 9.5% decline compared to $23 million in fiscal Q1 2025. While the company reduced its net loss to $33 million, a 14.6% improvement year-over-year, the EPS miss and underlying revenue decline contributed to investor concerns about the commercial trajectory of ZYNLONTA.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -69.3% change in ADCT stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -67.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.75 | 1.15 | -69.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 81 | 79 | -2.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.9 | 2.2 | -67.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 151 | 154 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -69.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADCT | -69.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 10.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 10.9% | -19.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -67.4% change in ADCT stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -65.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.53 | 1.15 | -67.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 75 | 79 | 5.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.4 | 2.2 | -65.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 136 | 154 | -11.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -67.4% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADCT | -67.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 15.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.5% | -5.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -57.1% change in ADCT stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.68 | 1.15 | -57.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 76 | 79 | 4.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.8 | 2.2 | -40.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 154 | -30.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -57.1% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADCT | -57.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | 21.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 22.2% | 3.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -46.5% change in ADCT stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -56.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.15 | 1.15 | -46.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 182 | 79 | -56.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.0 | 2.2 | 135.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 81 | 154 | -47.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -46.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADCT | -46.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 20.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 28.2% | 13.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADCT Return | -37% | -81% | -57% | 20% | 77% | -65% | -96% |
| Peers Return | 14% | -13% | -9% | -18% | -3% | 56% | 11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADCT Win Rate | 33% | 25% | 33% | 33% | 58% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 45% | 38% | 52% | 53% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADCT Max Drawdown | -43% | -86% | -91% | -64% | -46% | -80% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -47% | -39% | -44% | -40% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PFE, ABBV, GILD, STRO, MGNX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADCT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -63.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 175.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -65.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 186.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 212 days | 31 days |
In The Past
ADC Therapeutics's stock fell -34.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 51.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | ADCT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -63.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 175.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -65.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 186.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 212 days | 31 days |
In The Past
ADC Therapeutics's stock fell -34.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 51.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About ADC Therapeutics (ADCT)
ADC Therapeutics (ADCT) is a commercial-stage biotechnology company that specializes in developing innovative cancer treatments using antibody drug conjugates (ADCs). ADCs are sophisticated biopharmaceutical drugs designed to precisely deliver potent chemotherapy agents directly to cancer cells while minimizing damage to healthy tissues. This targeted approach aims to enhance treatment efficacy and improve patient outcomes for those battling a variety of cancers.
The company's flagship product is ZYNLONTA, an approved ADC currently used for the treatment of relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), a serious type of blood cancer. ZYNLONTA is also undergoing further clinical trials for other lymphomas, including follicular lymphoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. ADC Therapeutics' pipeline also features camidanlumab tesirine (cami-T), an ADC in advanced clinical development for Hodgkin lymphoma and certain solid tumors, alongside other earlier-stage ADCs like ADCT-602, ADCT-601, and ADCT-901, which are being investigated for acute lymphoblastic leukemia and various solid tumors.
ADC Therapeutics primarily serves patient populations with significant unmet medical needs, focusing on individuals battling hematological malignancies (blood cancers) such as lymphomas and leukemia, with a growing emphasis on solid tumors. Many of their therapies are developed for patients whose cancers have relapsed or are refractory to conventional treatments, representing a critical area of medical need. Through its proprietary ADC technology and ongoing research, ADC Therapeutics aims to provide new, targeted therapeutic options for these challenging cancer indications.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for ADC Therapeutics:
ADC Therapeutics is like Genentech, but singularly focused on developing Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs) for cancer.
ADC Therapeutics is like Moderna, but for Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs) as precision cancer therapies.
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- ZYNLONTA: A commercial-stage antibody drug conjugate (ADC) for treating relapsed or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and other non-Hodgkin lymphomas.
- camidanlumab tesirine: An antibody drug conjugate (ADC) in clinical trials for relapsed or refractory Hodgkin lymphoma and selected advanced solid tumors.
- ADCT-602: An antibody drug conjugate (ADC) in early clinical trials for acute lymphoblastic leukemia.
- ADCT-601: An antibody drug conjugate (ADC) in early clinical trials for various solid tumors.
- ADCT-901: An antibody drug conjugate (ADC) in early clinical trials and preclinical development for various solid tumors.
- ADCT-701: A preclinical antibody drug conjugate (ADC) candidate for the treatment of solid tumors.
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ADC Therapeutics (ADCT) sells its products and intellectual property primarily to other companies. Its major customers, based on collaboration and license agreements for its technology and drug candidates, include:
- Genmab A/S (Symbol: GMAB)
- Bergenbio AS (Symbol: BGBIO)
- Synaffix B.V.
- Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation (a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corporation, TYO: 4188)
- Overland Pharmaceuticals
- MedImmune Limited (a subsidiary of AstraZeneca PLC, NASDAQ: AZN)
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- Genmab A/S (GMAB)
- Bergenbio AS (BGBIO)
- Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation (4508)
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Ameet Mallik was appointed Chief Executive Officer of ADC Therapeutics in May 2022. Prior to joining ADC Therapeutics, he served as Chief Executive Officer of Rafael Holdings, a company focused on developing novel cancer and immune metabolism therapeutics. Mr. Mallik also held various leadership roles during his 16 years at Novartis, including Executive Vice President and Head of U.S. Oncology, Global Head of Marketing, Value and Access, and Head of Latin America and Canada for Novartis Oncology. He was also Global Head of Biopharmaceuticals & Oncology Injectables at Sandoz, a Novartis company. Earlier in his career, he was an Associate Principal at McKinsey & Company. He holds an MBA from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and an M.S. in Biotechnology and B.S. in Chemical Engineering from Northwestern University.
Jose Carmona, Chief Financial OfficerJose Carmona was appointed Chief Financial Officer of ADC Therapeutics in December 2022. With over 20 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry, he most recently served as CFO of Rubius Therapeutics, where he managed financial functions, business development, investor relations, information technology, and procurement. Mr. Carmona contributed to capitalizing Rubius Therapeutics through various financing vehicles, guiding it from a research-stage to a clinical-stage company. Before Rubius, he held CFO positions at Radius Health and Innocoll. Innocoll Holdings PLC, where he was CFO, was under agreement to be acquired by Gurnet Point L.P., a private equity firm. During his 12 years at Novartis, Mr. Carmona held several financial management positions, including CFO Alcon for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. He received his undergraduate degree from Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María and an MBA from Columbia Business School.
Mohamed Zaki, Chief Medical OfficerMohamed Zaki was appointed Chief Medical Officer of ADC Therapeutics in January 2023. He brings over 20 years of global biopharmaceutical experience in hematology and oncology drug development. Prior to ADC Therapeutics, he served as Vice President & Global Head of Oncology Development at AbbVie. He also spent nine years at Celgene in increasingly senior roles in oncology and hematology development and previously worked in clinical development at Sanofi-Aventis and Centocor Inc., a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson. Dr. Zaki earned his MD and MS at Ain Shams University School of Medicine in Cairo, Egypt, and his PhD from the University of Pennsylvania and Ain Shams University School of Medicine.
Kristen Harrington-Smith, Chief Commercial OfficerKristen Harrington-Smith joined ADC Therapeutics as Chief Commercial Officer in November 2022. She has over 20 years of experience in the pharmaceutical industry, having most recently served as Chief Commercial Officer of Immunogen, where she built the commercial organization and prepared for the launch of its first commercial product. Her prior roles at Novartis Pharmaceuticals included Vice President and Head, US Hematology, leading teams for therapies in hematologic diseases, and Vice President and Head, US CAR-T, overseeing the commercial launch of Kymriah. Ms. Harrington-Smith holds an MBA from the Kenan-Flagler Business School at the University of North Carolina and a BA from Williams College.
Peter Graham, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal & Compliance Officer and Corporate SecretaryPeter Graham was appointed Chief Legal Officer of ADC Therapeutics in November 2022, and later became Senior Vice President, Chief Legal & Compliance Officer and Corporate Secretary in March 2024. He is a senior legal executive with over 25 years of experience in publicly traded biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device companies. From 2015 until its acquisition by Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. in 2022, Mr. Graham served as Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, Human Resources, and Secretary for Antares Pharma, Inc.. He also served as Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, and Global Human Resources at Delcath Systems, Inc. from 2010 to 2015. Mr. Graham earned his J.D. from Yeshiva University's Benjamin N. Cardozo School of Law and his BA from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
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Key Risks
- Dependence on the successful clinical development and regulatory approval of product candidates: ADC Therapeutics is a biotechnology company heavily invested in the development of antibody drug conjugates. A significant portion of its value and future revenue relies on the successful completion of clinical trials and subsequent regulatory approval for its various product candidates, including ZYNLONTA for new indications and combinations, camidanlumab tesirine, ADCT-602, ADCT-601, ADCT-901, and ADCT-701. Failure in any of these clinical trials, or delays in gaining necessary regulatory approvals, would significantly impact the company's ability to bring new products to market and generate future revenue.
- Commercialization and market acceptance risk for ZYNLONTA: ZYNLONTA is ADC Therapeutics' flagship and only commercial-stage product. While it is approved and being marketed, its continued financial success and ability to generate substantial revenue depend on effective commercialization strategies, widespread market adoption by physicians and patients, and successful competition against existing or future treatments. Furthermore, ZYNLONTA is still undergoing various clinical trials (Phase II, Phase III, and Phase I) for expanded indications and combinations, meaning its full commercial potential and market penetration are still being established. Any factors hindering its commercial performance or expansion could significantly impact the company's financial outlook.
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ADC Therapeutics (ADCT) operates in significant addressable markets for its main products, ZYNLONTA and camidanlumab tesirine, targeting various hematological malignancies and solid tumors.
ZYNLONTA (loncastuximab tesirine-lpyl)
- Relapsed or Refractory Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCL): The global market for relapsed or refractory DLBCL is estimated at USD 1,610.0 million in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 2,161.8 million by 2032. The total market size for DLBCL in the seven major markets (7MM: United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), United Kingdom, and Japan) is expected to grow from USD 5,286 million in 2025 to USD 16,562 million by 2034. In 2024, the United States alone accounted for approximately USD 3,100 million of this market. More broadly, the global non-Hodgkin lymphoma therapeutics market, which includes DLBCL, was valued at USD 9.5 billion in 2023 and is estimated to grow to USD 17.5 billion by 2032.
- Follicular Lymphoma: The global follicular lymphoma drugs market was valued at USD 1.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 1.94 billion in 2025 to USD 3.05 billion by 2032. Another estimate places the global follicular lymphoma market size at USD 1.90 billion in 2025, increasing to approximately USD 2.65 billion by 2034. In the 7MM, the follicular lymphoma market is expected to expand from USD 1,702 million in 2025 to USD 3,081 million by 2036. The United States alone generated approximately USD 1,000 million in this market in 2024.
- Relapsed or Refractory Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL): This is a broader market encompassing DLBCL and follicular lymphoma. The global non-Hodgkin lymphoma treatment market size was valued at USD 11.59 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 19.44 billion by 2034. North America held a significant share of 49.35% in this market in 2025.
camidanlumab tesirine
- Relapsed or Refractory Hodgkin Lymphoma: The global Hodgkin Lymphoma treatment market size was valued at USD 3.51 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 5.52 billion by 2031. Another report indicates the global Hodgkin's lymphoma treatment market size was valued at USD 3.82 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 8.27 billion by 2034. The market in North America is expected to hold the largest share and continue this trend.
- Selected Advanced Solid Tumors: The global solid tumors market size reached US$ 170.3 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach US$ 375.4 billion by 2034. The global solid tumor therapeutics market was valued at USD 191.58 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 389.4 billion by 2033. North America dominates the global solid tumor therapeutics market.
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ADC Therapeutics (ADCT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives focused on expanding its commercial-stage product, ZYNLONTA, and advancing its pipeline candidate, camidanlumab tesirine.
- Expansion of ZYNLONTA into Second-Line Plus (2L+) Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCL): The company anticipates significant revenue growth from ZYNLONTA by expanding its use into earlier lines of therapy for DLBCL. Key catalysts include the LOTIS-5 Phase 3 confirmatory trial, with topline data expected in the second quarter of 2026 and full results by year-end 2026. Positive data could lead to a supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) submission and potential compendia inclusion in the first half of 2027, followed by regulatory approval. Management has highlighted this expansion as a "real inflection point" for sales and estimates a potential annual U.S. peak revenue opportunity for ZYNLONTA between $600 million and $1 billion. Additionally, the LOTIS-7 Phase 1b trial, evaluating ZYNLONTA in combination with glofitamab for relapsed or refractory DLBCL, is expected to yield full data by the end of 2026, with early results showing an 89.8% overall response rate and 77.6% complete response rate.
- Expansion of ZYNLONTA into Indolent Lymphomas: ADC Therapeutics is pursuing the expansion of ZYNLONTA into new indications within indolent lymphomas, specifically follicular lymphoma (FL) and marginal zone lymphoma (MZL), through investigator-initiated trials (IITs). Data from these trials are anticipated between late 2026 and mid-2027. If data are positive, the company plans to assess potential regulatory and compendia pathways, which could open new patient populations and contribute to revenue. Initial data for ZYNLONTA plus rituximab in relapsed/refractory MZL has shown promising outcomes, with a 98.2% overall response rate and an 83.6% complete response rate in 55 evaluable patients.
- Potential Approval and Commercialization of Camidanlumab Tesirine (Cami) for Relapsed or Refractory Hodgkin Lymphoma (r/r HL): Camidanlumab tesirine (Cami), an antibody drug conjugate targeting CD25, has completed a pivotal Phase 2 clinical trial for relapsed or refractory Hodgkin lymphoma. The trial demonstrated encouraging efficacy with an overall response rate of 70.1% and a complete response rate of 33.3%, along with a median duration of response of 13.7 months in heavily pre-treated patients. ADC Therapeutics is preparing for a potential Biologics License Application (BLA) submission to the FDA for Cami. A successful approval and subsequent commercial launch of Cami would introduce a new product to the market, addressing an unmet need in r/r HL and providing a new stream of revenue.
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Share Issuance
- ADC Therapeutics completed an underwritten public offering in May 2024, generating approximately $97.4 million in net proceeds.
- The company raised $100.0 million in gross proceeds from a private investment in public equity (PIPE) financing in June 2025, issuing common shares and pre-funded warrants.
- Another $60.0 million in gross proceeds was secured through a PIPE financing in October 2025, involving the sale of common shares and pre-funded warrants to institutional investors.
Inbound Investments
- In February 2026, ADC Therapeutics amended its royalty purchase agreement with HealthCare Royalty, which reduced a change of control payment from $750 million to $150 million (through 2027) or $200 million (thereafter), in exchange for granting warrants to purchase approximately 9.8 million common shares at an exercise price of $3.81 per share.
Capital Expenditures
- For the 12 months ending December 31, 2025, capital expenditures amounted to approximately -$264,000.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, capital expenditures were reported as $0.
- Proceeds from the June 2025 PIPE financing are intended to fund ZYNLONTA® clinical development and commercialization activities, indicating a primary focus of capital allocation.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is ADC Therapeutics Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 23.71 |
| Mkt Cap | 70.0 |
| Rev LTM | 14,946 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,919 |
| FCF LTM | 4,706 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,259 |
| CFO LTM | 5,368 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,900 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 26.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -8.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -74.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -12.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -48.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -15.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -52.2% |
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| BLA761196 | ZYNLONTA | loncastuximab tesirine-lpyl | injectable | 4232021 | -7.3% | 12.3% | -45.6% | -90.1% | -95.1% |
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| BLA761196 | ZYNLONTA | loncastuximab tesirine-lpyl | injectable | 4232021 | -7.3% | 12.3% | -45.6% | -90.1% | -95.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1.15 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/15/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -76.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1.85 | $3.44 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -37.7% | -66.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 138.7% | 90.8% |
| Downside Capture | 150.25 | 166.12 |
| Upside Capture | -446.16 | 12.06 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 7.0% | 20.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.22 | 0.94 | 1.28 | 1.19 | 1.60 | 1.54 |
| Up Beta | 6.78 | 3.79 | 2.37 | 1.82 | 2.02 | 1.27 |
| Down Beta | 5.41 | 3.37 | 3.17 | 2.82 | 1.95 | 1.60 |
| Up Capture | -735% | -347% | -156% | -75% | 29% | 192% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 5 | 13 | 24 | 52 | 114 | 337 |
| Down Capture | 144% | 232% | 243% | 143% | 150% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 34 | 66 | 124 | 379 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADCT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADCT | -64.2% | 90.7% | -0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 20.9% | 15.7% | 1.02 | 2.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | 20.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 28.1% | 0.61 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.7% | 19.1% | 1.42 | -2.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 14.1% | 0.69 | -2.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.4% | 42.9% | -1.29 | 16.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADCT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADCT | -44.6% | 100.8% | -0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.4% | 15.0% | 0.25 | 17.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 24.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 20.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.7% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 13.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADCT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADCT | -27.5% | 94.8% | -0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.0% | 16.6% | 0.49 | 16.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 22.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 18.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.3% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 11.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/4/2026 | -3.9% | -8.6% | -17.2% |
| 3/10/2026 | 13.5% | -0.2% | -11.8% |
| 1/8/2026 | 2.5% | -0.6% | 11.8% |
| 11/10/2025 | 4.2% | -2.0% | -0.7% |
| 8/12/2025 | 9.7% | 20.9% | 20.5% |
| 5/14/2025 | 37.1% | 62.9% | 178.0% |
| 3/27/2025 | -3.8% | -15.8% | -15.8% |
| 1/13/2025 | -0.6% | 2.3% | -14.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| # Negative | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 9.7% | 20.9% | 20.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -9.2% | -12.9% |
| Max Positive | 37.1% | 62.9% | 178.0% |
| Max Negative | -12.4% | -15.8% | -28.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/4/2026 | -3.9% | -8.6% | -17.2% |
| 3/10/2026 | 13.5% | -0.2% | -11.8% |
| 1/8/2026 | 2.5% | -0.6% | 11.8% |
| 11/10/2025 | 4.2% | -2.0% | -0.7% |
| 8/12/2025 | 9.7% | 20.9% | 20.5% |
| 5/14/2025 | 37.1% | 62.9% | 178.0% |
| 3/27/2025 | -3.8% | -15.8% | -15.8% |
| 1/13/2025 | -0.6% | 2.3% | -14.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | -8.4% | -11.9% | -2.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | 1.7% | -9.8% | -3.1% |
| 5/6/2024 | -9.2% | -12.2% | -28.6% |
| 3/13/2024 | -12.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% |
| 1/4/2024 | 13.3% | 31.3% | 116.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| # Negative | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 9.7% | 20.9% | 20.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -9.2% | -12.9% |
| Max Positive | 37.1% | 62.9% | 178.0% |
| Max Negative | -12.4% | -15.8% | -28.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/15/2023 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 6-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/15/2023 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/17/2022 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/18/2021 | 20-F |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/12/2020 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/18/2020 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2019 | 05/18/2020 | 424B4 |
| 06/30/2019 | 09/06/2019 | F-1 |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redmile, Group, Llc | See Footnote | Sell | 4022026 | 3.28 | 2,634,506 | 8,638,545 | 41,534,211 | Form | |
| 2 | Redmile, Group, Llc | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 3.28 | 2,529,491 | 8,294,201 | 33,659,909 | Form | |
| 3 | Redmile, Group, Llc | See Footnote | Sell | 4022026 | 3.80 | 169,265 | 643,038 | 58,129,399 | Form | |
| 4 | Redmile, Group, Llc | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 3.80 | 162,517 | 617,402 | 48,607,400 | Form | |
| 5 | Redmile, Group, Llc | See Footnote | Sell | 4022026 | 3.75 | 196,229 | 736,251 | 58,045,324 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redmile, Group, Llc | See Footnote | Sell | 4022026 | 3.28 | 2,634,506 | 8,638,545 | 41,534,211 | Form | |
| 2 | Redmile, Group, Llc | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 3.28 | 2,529,491 | 8,294,201 | 33,659,909 | Form | |
| 3 | Redmile, Group, Llc | See Footnote | Sell | 4022026 | 3.80 | 169,265 | 643,038 | 58,129,399 | Form | |
| 4 | Redmile, Group, Llc | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 3.80 | 162,517 | 617,402 | 48,607,400 | Form | |
| 5 | Redmile, Group, Llc | See Footnote | Sell | 4022026 | 3.75 | 196,229 | 736,251 | 58,045,324 | Form | |
| 6 | Redmile, Group, Llc | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 3.75 | 188,407 | 706,903 | 48,615,808 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 25, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Pharmaceuticals Resources |
| Fierce Pharma |
| Pharm Exec |
| Endpoints News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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