Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -48%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -69%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -126 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -163%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -165%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -166%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -60%
3   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -48%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Oncology Treatments, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -69%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -126 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -163%
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -165%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -166%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -60%
6 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ADCT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The following are key points for ADC Therapeutics (ADCT) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025: 1. Deterioration in LOTIS-7 Trial Efficacy and Treatment-Related Death. On December 3, 2025, ADC Therapeutics' stock experienced a significant decline of 30% following an update from the Phase 1 LOTIS-7 trial. The update revealed a decrease in the overall response rate from 94% to 90% and reported a treatment-related death due to oedema, which raised concerns among investors regarding the durability and safety of Zynlonta in combination with glofitamab.

2. Q3 2025 Financial Results and PIPE Financing. ADC Therapeutics reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 10, 2025, showcasing a reduced net loss compared to the same period in 2024. Concurrently, the company completed a $60 million private investment in public equity (PIPE) financing, which was intended to bolster its balance sheet and support the commercial expansion of ZYNLONTA.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ADCT Return--37%-81%-57%20%78%-89%
Peers Return2%-1%6%8%-0%2%17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADCT Win Rate29%33%25%33%33%70% 
Peers Win Rate13%8%13%12%10%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADCT Max Drawdown--40%-86%-88%0%-45% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-5%0%-0%-1%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADCTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-98.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven7174.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven102.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

ADC Therapeutics's stock fell -98.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/25/2021. A -98.6% loss requires a 7174.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About ADC Therapeutics (ADCT)

Better Bets than ADC Therapeutics (ADCT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ADCT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for ADC Therapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADCTVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameADC Ther.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Price3.54458.852.601.1711.5221.907.53
Mkt Cap0.4117.3----58.8
Rev LTM7711,7230-01010
Op Inc LTM-126-92-5--93-70-92
FCF LTM-1283,337-6--60-64-60
FCF 3Y Avg-1262,064-10----10
CFO LTM-1273,718-6--60-64-60
CFO 3Y Avg-1252,419-10----10

Growth & Margins

ADCTVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameADC Ther.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Rev Chg LTM15.7%10.3%----13.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.1%10.5%----13.3%
Rev Chg Q8.2%11.0%----9.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%2.7%----2.3%
Op Mgn LTM-163.5%-0.8%----700.7%-163.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-141.8%26.2%-----57.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.6%1.0%----0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-164.8%31.7%----635.6%-164.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-145.9%23.1%-----61.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-165.6%28.5%----636.5%-165.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-147.4%19.8%-----63.8%

Valuation

ADCTVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameADC Ther.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Cap0.4117.3----58.8
P/S3.98.6----6.3
P/EBIT-2.622.5----10.0
P/E-1.827.3----12.8
P/CFO-2.427.0----12.3
Total Yield-55.8%3.7%-----26.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-50.0%2.3%-----23.9%
D/E0.40.0----0.2
Net D/E-0.5-0.0-----0.3

Returns

ADCTVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameADC Ther.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
1M Rtn-12.3%8.8%-23.2%-4.8%-2.0%
3M Rtn4.0%15.6%--14.3%-14.3%
6M Rtn2.8%3.4%----3.1%
12M Rtn70.8%-1.1%----34.8%
3Y Rtn0.7%44.5%----22.6%
1M Excs Rtn-13.5%7.5%-22.0%-6.1%-0.7%
3M Excs Rtn-5.9%10.0%--10.6%-10.0%
6M Excs Rtn-12.7%-12.1%-----12.4%
12M Excs Rtn39.0%-14.9%----12.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-68.6%-28.4%-----48.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Product revenue, net6975   
Royalties00   
License revenues 135   
Single segment  34 2
Total7021034 2


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment   514 
Total   514 


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,867,155
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-9.5%
Average Daily Volume807,314
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.27
Basic Shares Quantity113,743,358
Short % of Basic Shares5.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024327202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023313202410-K 12/31/2023
9302023110720236-K 9/30/2023
630202380820236-K 6/30/2023
331202350920236-K 3/31/2023
12312022315202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022110820226-K 9/30/2022
630202280920226-K 6/30/2022
331202250920226-K 3/31/2022
12312021317202220-F 12/31/2021
9302021110220216-K 9/30/2021