Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD)
Market Price (7/13/2026): $5.91 | Market Cap: $128.9 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD)
Market Price (7/13/2026): $5.91Market Cap: $128.9 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -70% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -75 Mil Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -58% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 123% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -70% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -129% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -75 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -58% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 123% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) stock has gained about 60% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Sustained Cash Position and Operational Runway.
Aardvark Therapeutics reported a robust cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments balance of $91.2 million as of fiscal Q1 2026 (ending March 31, 2026). This financial stability is projected to fund the company's operations into mid-2027, providing a crucial extended runway to navigate clinical setbacks and strategically evaluate its pipeline.
2. Proactive Strategy Following Clinical Hold on ARD-101.
Despite the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) placing a full clinical hold on Aardvark's lead candidate, ARD-101, in May 2026 for Prader-Willi Syndrome, the company announced a decisive plan to unblind the data from its Phase 3 HERO trial and open-label extension. This commitment to thoroughly assess existing efficacy and safety data to inform the program's future demonstrated a proactive approach, rather than immediate abandonment, which likely contributed to investor confidence in the company's strategic management.
Show more
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) stock has gained about 60% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Sustained Cash Position and Operational Runway.
Aardvark Therapeutics reported a robust cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments balance of $91.2 million as of fiscal Q1 2026 (ending March 31, 2026). This financial stability is projected to fund the company's operations into mid-2027, providing a crucial extended runway to navigate clinical setbacks and strategically evaluate its pipeline.
2. Proactive Strategy Following Clinical Hold on ARD-101.
Despite the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) placing a full clinical hold on Aardvark's lead candidate, ARD-101, in May 2026 for Prader-Willi Syndrome, the company announced a decisive plan to unblind the data from its Phase 3 HERO trial and open-label extension. This commitment to thoroughly assess existing efficacy and safety data to inform the program's future demonstrated a proactive approach, rather than immediate abandonment, which likely contributed to investor confidence in the company's strategic management.
3. Breadth of Pipeline and Underlying Therapeutic Platform.
Beyond the challenges faced by ARD-101, Aardvark Therapeutics maintains additional pipeline candidates, including ARD-201, which is being developed for obesity and related conditions with planned Phase 2 trials (POWER and STRENGTH), although this program was also voluntarily paused. The company's core scientific approach, focusing on developing small-molecule therapeutics to activate innate homeostatic pathways and interact with gut hormones such as GLP-1 and CCK, represents a broader therapeutic platform that may hold value independent of any single drug's immediate clinical progress. Furthermore, Aardvark established Ardia, a subsidiary, to advance a dermatology pipeline.
4. Analyst Optimism and Price Targets Post-Setbacks.
While analyst ratings saw adjustments following the clinical holds, a significant portion of analysts continued to issue "Buy" or "Hold" recommendations for Aardvark Therapeutics, with price targets indicating substantial potential upside. For instance, as of May 15, 2026, analysts had a consensus "Buy" rating with an average price target of $15.44. Even by July 11, 2026, some analysts still maintained positive ratings, with an average price target of $19.70, suggesting a continued belief in the company's long-term value proposition and potential for recovery. This sustained analyst support likely contributed to investor interest and helped facilitate a rebound in the stock price.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 56.8% change in AARD stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.77 | 5.91 | 56.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 22 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | 58.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.2% | 32.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 10.1% | 3.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -55.0% change in AARD stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -0.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.12 | 5.91 | -55.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 22 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | -54.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.2% | 29.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 4.7% | 14.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -56.3% change in AARD stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.52 | 5.91 | -56.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 22 | -40.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | -55.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.3% | 26.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 21.3% | 16.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | ||
| Market (SPY) | 75.0% | 25.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 27.3% | 20.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AARD Return | - | - | - | - | -8% | -42% | -47% |
| Peers Return | -23% | 64% | 20% | 4% | 173% | 5% | 356% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AARD Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 36% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 53% | 47% | 43% | 52% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AARD Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -78% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -64% | -64% | -54% | -46% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RYTM, VKTX, ALT, RLMD, HRMY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AARD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Aardvark Therapeutics's stock fell -53.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 112.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | AARD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Aardvark Therapeutics's stock fell -53.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 112.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Commercial Banking Services: Provides working capital loans, lines of credit, equipment financing, and other specialized lending products for businesses.
- Deposit and Treasury Management: Offers checking accounts, internet banking, payment processing, and cash management solutions for commercial clients.
- Retail Banking: Delivers general banking services to individual customers.
- Wealth Management: Provides financial planning and investment advisory services.
- Equipment Leasing: Originates and manages leases for a diverse range of equipment, including computer systems and industrial machinery.
- Mortgage Banking: Specializes in originating and servicing residential mortgage loans for sale to investors.
- Real Estate Financing and Services: Offers loans, deposit services, and treasury management solutions specifically for real estate operators and investors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Addressable Markets:
- ARD-101 for Prader-Willi Syndrome (PWS): The global market for Prader-Willi Syndrome treatment is estimated to be USD 0.98 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.59 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2%. Another estimate values the global market at USD 599.81 million in 2023, expected to reach USD 1,131.94 million by 2033, with a CAGR of approximately 6.56%. In the U.S. alone, there are an estimated 10,000 to 20,000 individuals with Prader-Willi.
- ARD-201 for Obesity and obesity-related conditions: Aardvark Therapeutics is also developing ARD-201, a planned fixed-dose combination of ARD-101 with a DPP-4 inhibitor, for obesity and obesity-related conditions. Specific addressable market sizes in dollar amounts for this product were not available in the provided information.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Aardvark Therapeutics Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -86 |
| FCF LTM | -67 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -75 |
| CFO LTM | -67 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -75 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 58.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 93.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -8.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -90.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -170.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -55.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -96.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -55.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -113.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of novel therapies for the treatment of metabolic diseases | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of novel therapies for the treatment of metabolic diseases | -58 | -21 | -7 |
| Total | -58 | -21 | -7 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of novel therapies for the treatment of metabolic diseases | 11 | 17 |
| Total | 11 | 17 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $5.96 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -65.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.92 | $11.84 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 21.1% | -49.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 157.3% | 123.7% |
| Downside Capture | 562.82 | 420.83 |
| Upside Capture | 536.13 | 245.59 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 35.2% | 26.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.21 | 3.25 | 2.72 | 2.73 | 2.38 | -0.05 |
| Up Beta | 2.21 | 1.91 | 1.14 | 3.65 | 1.49 | 0.54 |
| Down Beta | 4.62 | 4.29 | 4.17 | 2.30 | 1.77 | -0.65 |
| Up Capture | 412% | 396% | 460% | 119% | 306% | 79% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 36 | 66 | 129 | 177 |
| Down Capture | -36% | 322% | 307% | 237% | 192% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 27 | 59 | 122 | 165 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARD | -52.8% | 123.3% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 20.0% | 15.7% | 0.97 | 16.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.8% | 12.6% | 1.23 | 27.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.0% | 27.9% | 0.64 | 9.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 27.6% | 18.9% | 1.16 | -13.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.3% | 13.9% | 0.66 | 13.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.8% | 42.7% | -1.28 | 14.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARD | -16.6% | 123.1% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.3% | 14.9% | 0.24 | 20.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 25.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.3% | 0.75 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 19.5% | 0.29 | -9.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 19.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.6% | 53.5% | 0.44 | 14.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARD | -8.7% | 123.1% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.3% | 16.6% | 0.50 | 20.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 25.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.3% | 18.0% | 0.28 | -9.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 19.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.7% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 14.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/12/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -4.9% | 11.9% | -37.5% |
| 11/13/2025 | -8.7% | -13.2% | 28.2% |
| 8/13/2025 | 0.5% | -13.7% | -23.3% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.0% | 27.2% | 22.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 19.6% | 25.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -13.4% | -30.4% |
| Max Positive | 4.0% | 27.2% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -13.7% | -37.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -4.9% | 11.9% | -37.5% |
| 11/13/2025 | -8.7% | -13.2% | 28.2% |
| 8/13/2025 | 0.5% | -13.7% | -23.3% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.0% | 27.2% | 22.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 19.6% | 25.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -13.4% | -30.4% |
| Max Positive | 4.0% | 27.2% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -13.7% | -37.5% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/12/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | 2,028 | 0.0% | Raised | Guidance: 2,027 for 2027 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/13/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | 2,027 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2,027 for 2027 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 4/26/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun, Nelson | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.40 | 3,000 | 43,200 | 1,562,170 | Form |
| 2 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.48 | 7,000 | 101,395 | 22,475,114 | Form |
| 3 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9162025 | 9.66 | 10,000 | 96,624 | 14,912,732 | Form |
| 4 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 8.50 | 5,000 | 42,516 | 13,038,517 | Form |
| 5 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 7.82 | 6,000 | 46,926 | 11,953,491 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun, Nelson | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.40 | 3,000 | 43,200 | 1,562,170 | Form |
| 2 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.48 | 7,000 | 101,395 | 22,475,114 | Form |
| 3 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9162025 | 9.66 | 10,000 | 96,624 | 14,912,732 | Form |
| 4 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 8.50 | 5,000 | 42,516 | 13,038,517 | Form |
| 5 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 7.82 | 6,000 | 46,926 | 11,953,491 | Form |
| 6 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 7.91 | 9,000 | 71,212 | 12,045,863 | Form |
| 7 | Sun, Nelson | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 9102025 | 8.07 | 6,000 | 48,440 | 851,604 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 14, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank and community-bank filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.