How Will Zoetis Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Zoetis (NYSE:ZTS) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 7, 2026. The company has $49 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $9.5 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.7 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Zoetis’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 5.1%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -3.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/12/2026 | -2.4% | -1.1% | -10.1% |
| 11/4/2025 | -13.8% | -17.0% | -16.6% |
| 8/5/2025 | -3.7% | -1.8% | 0.4% |
| 5/6/2025 | -5.2% | 2.4% | 6.7% |
| 2/13/2025 | -5.1% | -9.5% | -7.3% |
| 11/4/2024 | -3.7% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% |
| 5/2/2024 | 5.5% | 4.1% | 7.0% |
| 2/13/2024 | -6.7% | -5.2% | -10.4% |
| 11/2/2023 | 6.3% | 12.8% | 18.3% |
| 8/8/2023 | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% |
| 5/4/2023 | 0.4% | 4.2% | -3.3% |
| 2/14/2023 | 5.4% | 4.1% | 0.3% |
| 11/3/2022 | -11.0% | -9.6% | 6.8% |
| 8/4/2022 | -3.2% | -3.4% | -11.5% |
| 5/5/2022 | -3.1% | -9.6% | -4.4% |
| 2/15/2022 | 0.7% | -3.2% | -2.3% |
| 11/4/2021 | 3.1% | 2.6% | 5.8% |
| 8/5/2021 | -0.5% | -3.6% | 2.2% |
| 5/6/2021 | -3.6% | -3.3% | 0.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -3.5% | -7.3% |
| Max Positive | 6.3% | 12.8% | 18.3% |
| Max Negative | -13.8% | -17.0% | -16.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -11.0% | -4.3% | -3.0% |
| 3Y History | 33.5% | 37.8% | 40.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Zoetis stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Zoetis. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| ZTS Earnings Dates | ZTS | MRK |
| 2/12/2026 | -2.4% | 2.9% |
| 11/4/2025 | -13.8% | -2.8% |
| 8/5/2025 | -3.7% | -2.2% |
| 5/6/2025 | -5.2% | -1.0% |
| 2/13/2025 | -5.1% | -7.0% |
| 11/4/2024 | -3.7% | -0.4% |
| 8/6/2024 | 6.0% | -3.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | 5.5% | -1.9% |
| 2/13/2024 | -6.7% | -0.8% |
| 11/2/2023 | 6.3% | -2.6% |
| 8/8/2023 | 4.8% | 1.1% |
| 5/4/2023 | 0.4% | 1.9% |
| 2/14/2023 | 5.4% | 5.1% |
| 11/3/2022 | -11.0% | -1.0% |
| 8/4/2022 | -3.2% | -3.5% |
| 5/5/2022 | -3.1% | 2.1% |
| 2/15/2022 | 0.7% | -1.5% |
| 11/4/2021 | 3.1% | 4.6% |
| 8/5/2021 | -0.5% | -1.7% |
| CORRELATION | -14.5% |
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