How Will Zscaler Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, November 25, 2025. The company has $43 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.7 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-127 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-41 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Zscaler’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 9.1%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -8.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/2/2025 | -1.5% | 2.8% | 10.9% |
| 5/29/2025 | 9.8% | 19.8% | 25.0% |
| 3/5/2025 | 2.9% | 0.7% | -2.2% |
| 12/2/2024 | -4.7% | -1.1% | -12.9% |
| 9/3/2024 | -18.7% | -19.3% | -12.2% |
| 5/30/2024 | 8.5% | 14.2% | 26.8% |
| 2/29/2024 | -9.4% | -16.8% | -20.6% |
| 11/27/2023 | 1.0% | 3.3% | 17.3% |
| 9/5/2023 | -2.7% | -1.5% | -4.7% |
| 6/1/2023 | 5.4% | 10.2% | 8.5% |
| 3/2/2023 | -11.1% | -17.7% | -12.9% |
| 12/1/2022 | -10.7% | -17.3% | -23.7% |
| 9/8/2022 | 21.9% | 14.1% | 10.3% |
| 5/26/2022 | 12.6% | 10.4% | 9.0% |
| 2/24/2022 | -15.8% | -8.1% | -12.6% |
| 11/30/2021 | -8.3% | -14.2% | -6.5% |
| 9/9/2021 | -3.4% | -2.1% | -4.8% |
| 5/25/2021 | 12.4% | 10.8% | 27.2% |
| 2/25/2021 | 4.7% | -7.6% | -13.3% |
| 12/2/2020 | 26.4% | 20.4% | 33.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 9.1% | 10.6% | 17.3% |
| Median Negative | -8.8% | -11.1% | -12.6% |
| Max Positive | 26.4% | 20.4% | 33.6% |
| Max Negative | -18.7% | -19.3% | -23.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -0.3% | 4.3% | 24.7% |
| 3Y History | 60.5% | 42.3% | 29.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Zscaler stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Zscaler. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ZS Earnings Dates | ZS | PANW | FTNT |
| 9/2/2025 | -1.5% | 8.1% | -20.4% |
| 5/29/2025 | 9.8% | -4.5% | -4.4% |
| 3/5/2025 | 2.9% | -8.7% | 2.0% |
| 12/2/2024 | -4.7% | -0.7% | 13.9% |
| 9/3/2024 | -18.7% | 3.4% | 38.2% |
| 5/30/2024 | 8.5% | -9.4% | -11.0% |
| 2/29/2024 | -9.4% | -15.2% | 2.4% |
| 11/27/2023 | 1.0% | 5.0% | -6.7% |
| 9/5/2023 | -2.7% | 16.9% | N/A* |
| 6/1/2023 | 5.4% | 14.3% | 12.2% |
| 3/2/2023 | -11.1% | 13.8% | 10.9% |
| 12/1/2022 | -10.7% | 13.9% | 4.0% |
| 9/8/2022 | 21.9% | 7.7% | N/A* |
| 5/26/2022 | 12.6% | 15.1% | 2.4% |
| 2/24/2022 | -15.8% | 13.5% | 6.5% |
| 11/30/2021 | -8.3% | 5.2% | -1.9% |
| 9/9/2021 | -3.4% | 25.2% | N/A* |
| 5/25/2021 | 12.4% | 6.6% | 9.8% |
| 2/25/2021 | 4.7% | -6.3% | 7.0% |
| CORRELATION | 10.1% | -34.7% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after ZS
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