What’s Next For Ripple?

October 2025 is expected to be a pivotal month for XRP investors. Two major regulatory decisions are converging that could fundamentally alter XRP’s trajectory – but are these catalysts enough to justify the bullish sentiment?

The Twin Catalysts: What’s Actually Happening?

The XRP Spot ETF Decision

The SEC faces its final deadline to approve or reject spot XRP ETF applications by late October 2025. After months of extensions, the regulator can’t kick the can down the road any further. But here’s the key question: with multiple issuers like Bitwise, Grayscale, and 21Shares in the running, what are the realistic odds of approval?

Ripple’s Banking License Application

Simultaneously, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) must decide on Ripple’s national banking charter within its 120-day review period, which expires in late October. If approved, this would allow Ripple to operate as a federally regulated trust bank – a massive legitimacy boost. Of course, the OCC can reject or delay Ripple’s application.

Before diving into XRP’s specific upside potential, it’s worth noting that crypto investments carry substantial volatility. That being said, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock or cryptocurrency, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception. However, for those specifically targeting XRP’s regulatory breakthrough story, the direct crypto exposure remains the primary vehicle.

Image by Miloslav Hamřík from Pixabay

The Bull Case: Why These Could Be Game-Changers

ETF Approval = Institutional Flood Gates

If approved, XRP spot ETFs would provide the easiest pathway for institutional and retail investors to gain exposure without dealing with crypto exchanges. We’ve seen this playbook with Bitcoin – ETF approval typically triggers sustained rallies driven by fresh capital inflows. But here’s the critical difference: XRP’s market cap is significantly smaller than Bitcoin’s was at ETF approval, potentially amplifying the impact.

Banking License = XRP Price In Double Digits?

A national banking charter would be transformational for Ripple. It positions the company alongside major US financial institutions and provides regulatory clarity that could unlock enterprise adoption at scale. Could this drive XRP price to double digits? For that to happen, XRP would need a roughly 3.5x move from current levels, which isn’t unprecedented in crypto given the right catalysts.

What Could Go Wrong?

• ETF Rejection Remains Possible: Despite the optimism, the SEC could still reject XRP spot ETF applications. The regulator has been cautious about crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, and XRP’s previous legal battles might still influence the decision.
• Banking License Hurdles: National banking charters aren’t rubber stamps. The OCC evaluates capital adequacy, management, and regulatory compliance extensively. Ripple faces competition from established financial institutions and must prove it can meet stringent banking standards.
• The RFIA Wild Card: The proposed Responsible Financial Innovation Act adds another layer of complexity. While it could provide clearer regulatory frameworks for crypto, it also introduces new compliance requirements and potential restrictions that could impact XRP’s utility in cross-border payments.

The Bottom Line

October represents a critical inflection point for XRP. The confluence of ETF decisions and banking license rulings creates unprecedented upside potential – but it’s not guaranteed. There’s genuine momentum building around XRP’s institutional adoption narrative, and the combination of regulatory clarity (if achieved) and enhanced access through ETFs could create a perfect storm for price appreciation, potentially even to double digits.

From a technical perspective, XRP price needs to reclaim key resistance levels around $3.30 to validate the bullish thesis. Failure to hold these levels could see prices retreat to $2.60 or lower, regardless of regulatory news. This technical setup adds another layer of complexity to an already event-driven October.

Smart investors should prepare for both scenarios: transformational approval driving significant price appreciation, or rejection leading to near-term weakness. While XRP looks promising, investing in a single stock, let alone a cryptocurrency, can be risky. You could explore the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid- and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.

That said, the key question isn’t whether these XRP price catalysts exist – they clearly do. It’s whether the regulatory environment has evolved enough to embrace XRP’s institutional ambitions. The answer will likely determine whether XRP enters a new growth phase or faces another period of regulatory uncertainty.

For those positioned in XRP, October will test patience and conviction in equal measure. The upside potential is real, but so are the risks.

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