Exxon Mobil Stock Surged 40%, Here’s Why
Over the nearly six months from August 2025 to February 2026, Exxon Mobil (XOM)’s stock soared 41%, propelled by a striking jump in its P/E multiple despite slight revenue and margin slips. Behind this surge: robust earnings beats, production growth, and savvy shareholder returns—though oil price pressures still loom.
Below is an analytical breakdown of stock movement into key contributing metrics.
| 8082025 | 2042026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 104.9 | 147.6 | 40.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 329,385.0 | 324,924.0 | -1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.4% | 9.2% | -2.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.6 | 21.1 | 44.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,331.0 | 4,285.0 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.7% |
So what is happening here? The stock jumped 41%, driven by a 44% surge in its P/E multiple, while revenue dipped 1.4% and net margin slipped 2.1%. Let’s see what’s behind these shifts in the story ahead.
Here Is Why Exxon Mobil Stock Moved
- Strong Q3 2025 Earnings: Q3 2025 earnings of $7.5B and $14.8B cash flow, with increased dividend and buybacks.
- Q4 2025 Earnings Beat: Q4 2025 EPS of $1.71 beat estimates; revenue of $82.31B surpassed forecasts.
- High Shareholder Returns: Distributed $9.4B in Q3 and $9.5B in Q4 via dividends and share repurchases.
- Production Growth: Record production in Guyana and Permian, plus 10 key projects completed in 2025.
- Oil Price & Margin Pressures: Weaker crude prices and soft chemical margins weighed on full-year 2025 earnings.
Our Current Assesment Of XOM Stock
Opinion: We currently find XOM stock unattractive. Why so? Have a look at the full story. Read Buy or Sell XOM Stock to see what drives our current opinion.
Risk: A solid way to gauge risk in ExxonMobil is to check its historical drops during major sell-offs. In the Dot-Com Bubble, it fell about 23%, and during the Global Financial Crisis, the dip was even steeper at 34%. The 2018 correction wasn’t much kinder, shaving off roughly 24%. The Covid Pandemic hit hardest with a 55% drop, while the recent inflation shock dragged it down around 20%. Even with its steady business, XOM can take a serious hit when markets turn south.
XOM stock may have seen strong gains recently, but investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.